Accident; analysis and prevention最新文献

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Reliable crash analysis: Comparing biases and error rates of empirical Bayes before-after analyses to mixed-models
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.107921
Matthew A. Albrecht, Razi Hasan
{"title":"Reliable crash analysis: Comparing biases and error rates of empirical Bayes before-after analyses to mixed-models","authors":"Matthew A. Albrecht,&nbsp;Razi Hasan","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107921","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107921","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estimating reliable causal estimates of road safety interventions is challenging, with a number of these challenges addressable through analysis choices. At a minimum, developing reliable crash modification factors (CMFs) needs to address three critical confounding factors, i.e., 1) the regression-to-the-mean (RTM) phenomenon, 2) the effect of traffic volume, and 3) the time trend for the occurrence of crashes. The current preferred crash analysis method is the empirical Bayes (EB) before-after analysis but requires complex bespoke analysis and may not be the best performing method. We compare in a simulation experiment various EB methods to a more straightforward negative binomial generalized linear mixed model (NB-GLMM) with an interaction term between treatment group and time for analysing treatment effects in crash data. Data were simulated using two broad scenarios: 1) an idealized randomized controlled design, and 2) a moderately biased site-selection scenario commonly encountered in road safety crash analyses. Both scenarios varied treatment effects, overdispersion, and sample sizes. The NB-GLMM performed best, maintaining type I error rate and providing least biased estimates across most analyses. Most standard EB methods were too liberal or generally more biased, with the exception of the EB method that incorporated a varying dispersion parameter. Incorporating mixed-effects modelling into the EB procedure improved bias. Overall, we found that using a “standard” NB-GLMM with an interaction term is sufficient for crash analysis, reducing complexity compared to bespoke EB solutions. Chosen methods should also be the least biased and possess the marginal error rates under both ideal and selection-bias conditions. Mixed-effects approaches to analysis of road safety interventions satisfy these criteria outperforming standard or other empirical Bayes approaches tested here.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"212 ","pages":"Article 107921"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143035814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A coordinated control framework of freeway continuous merging areas considering traffic risks and energy consumption
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.107924
Weihua Zhang , Fan Zhang , Zhongxiang Feng , Hanchu Zhou , Lishengsa Yue , Lijun Xiong , Zeyang Cheng
{"title":"A coordinated control framework of freeway continuous merging areas considering traffic risks and energy consumption","authors":"Weihua Zhang ,&nbsp;Fan Zhang ,&nbsp;Zhongxiang Feng ,&nbsp;Hanchu Zhou ,&nbsp;Lishengsa Yue ,&nbsp;Lijun Xiong ,&nbsp;Zeyang Cheng","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freeway continuous merging areas in a short distance exist continuous multiple ramps. In these areas, traffic flow and vehicle interactions are more complex, and traffic crashes and congestion are more frequent, which has been a major concern influencing traffic operation of freeways. Active traffic management (ATM) measures can improve traffic efficiency and reduce traffic risks in merging areas. Previous studies have focused on variable speed limit (VSL) control or ramp metering (RM) to address traffic problems in merging areas, whereas the problem of comprehensively ameliorating for traffic risks on mainlines and ramps by coordinating VSL and RM control strategies has rarely been explored. This study introduces a Bi-level Programming Model capable of coordinating controls of traffic risks (e.g., Crash Risk and Congestion Risk) in freeway continuous merging areas. The upper-level model aims to minimize the crash risk, the congestion risk, and vehicle energy consumption by VSL control. While the lower-level model focuses on the ramp control by minimizing the congestion risk and energy consumption of the ramp. Then an extended Cell Transmission Model (CTM) (it is based on VSL and RM control) is utilized to simulate the traffic flow of merging areas, based on which a traffic risk evaluation model and a Bi-level coordinated control model for the continuous merging areas are developed. The results demonstrate the constructed method outperforms other control strategies for improving the safety and efficiency of freeways. Specifically, the proposed control framework in the continuous merging areas of freeways reduces the average crash risk (ACR), average mainline congestion risk (AMCI), and average energy consumption (AEC) by 14.10%, 19.52%, and 8.86%, respectively. The research results could be potentially applied to active and coordinated traffic management of freeways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"212 ","pages":"Article 107924"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143021704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cyclist safety assessment using autonomous vehicles 使用自动驾驶车辆进行骑车人安全评估。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.107923
Tarek Ghoul, Tarek Sayed
{"title":"Cyclist safety assessment using autonomous vehicles","authors":"Tarek Ghoul,&nbsp;Tarek Sayed","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Proactive and holistic safety management approaches should consider multi-modal crash risk. Cyclist crash risk should be prioritized given the high-severity of vehicle-cyclist crashes. Cyclist crash risk is difficult to quantify given the sparse nature of cyclist collisions and collisions in general. There is thus a need to develop a more proactive approach for multi-modal road-safety management by leveraging new technologies. This study proposes a conflict-based methodology to estimate cyclist crash risk using autonomous vehicle data, extrapolating from observed conflicts to real-time dynamic crash risk. Using 87 hours of data from an autonomous vehicle dataset from downtown Boston (nuPlan), traffic conflicts were identified. A Bayesian Hierarchical Extreme Value model was created representing driver and cyclist crash risk over short time intervals. This allows for identifying the real-time crash risk of various intersections and mid-blocks, enabling route-level safety metrics. The spatiotemporal characteristics of crash risk were examined in this study. Routes with cyclist facilities were found to be safer for cyclists, on average, than those with shared facilities. However, substantial fluctuations in crash risk were observed at different time intervals, with the shared facilities sometimes being safer than those with painted or buffered bicycle lanes. This highlights the need for real-time safety monitoring. At the user-level, a safest route application was also proposed, allowing for an impedance function to be developed based on real-time crash risk and the comparison of any number of nodes and links along a particular route.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"212 ","pages":"Article 107923"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142996683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of eHMI-equipped automated vehicles on pedestrian crossing behavior and safety: A focus on blind spot scenarios 配备ehmi的自动驾驶车辆对行人过马路行为和安全的影响:基于盲点场景的研究
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.107915
Xu Chen , Xiaomeng Li , Yuxuan Hou , Wenzhang Yang , Changyin Dong , Hao Wang
{"title":"Effect of eHMI-equipped automated vehicles on pedestrian crossing behavior and safety: A focus on blind spot scenarios","authors":"Xu Chen ,&nbsp;Xiaomeng Li ,&nbsp;Yuxuan Hou ,&nbsp;Wenzhang Yang ,&nbsp;Changyin Dong ,&nbsp;Hao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Blind spot collisions are a critical and often overlooked threat to pedestrian safety, frequently resulting in severe injuries. This study investigates the impact of automated vehicles equipped with external human–machine interfaces (eHMIs) on pedestrian crossing behavior and safety, focusing on scenarios where AVs create mutual blind spots between pedestrians and adjacent traffic. A virtual reality experiment with 51 participants simulated crossing situations in front of yielding trucks with obstructed pedestrian visibility, featuring three eHMIs: ‘Walk,’ ‘Don’t Walk,’ and ‘Caution! Blind Spots’. Vehicles within the truck’s blind spot exhibited proactive and reactive braking behaviors toward pedestrians. The results indicate that eHMI designs based on color, text, and symbols enhance pedestrian understanding. However, the ‘Walk’ eHMI, which ignores blind spot risks, may lead to dangerous crossing behaviors. In contrast, the ‘Don’t Walk’ eHMI effectively reduced unsafe crossing behaviors, though yielding trucks sometimes caused pedestrian confusion. The ‘Caution! Blind Spots’ eHMI increased alertness but was not significantly more effective than the direct ‘Don’t Walk’ instruction. This study provides empirical evidence for integrating dynamic environmental perception and hazard warnings into eHMI designs to raise road users’ awareness of blind spots. The findings emphasize the importance of comprehensive strategies, including policy-making, education, and VR-based training, to ensure the effective deployment and public understanding of eHMIs in blind spot environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"212 ","pages":"Article 107915"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142997730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring the impact of built environment on traffic risk perception of school-aged children: A case study of old residential neighborhoods in Changsha City, Hunan Province, China 建筑环境对学龄儿童交通风险感知的影响——以湖南省长沙市老旧住区为例
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.107920
Fan Yang , Jiale Li , Chengzhi Zhang , Fangrong Chang , Suwen Xiong
{"title":"Exploring the impact of built environment on traffic risk perception of school-aged children: A case study of old residential neighborhoods in Changsha City, Hunan Province, China","authors":"Fan Yang ,&nbsp;Jiale Li ,&nbsp;Chengzhi Zhang ,&nbsp;Fangrong Chang ,&nbsp;Suwen Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107920","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107920","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The built environment of old residential neighborhoods poses heightened perceived traffic risks for school-aged children due to their limited cognitive ability to assess hazards, underdeveloped understanding of traffic patterns, and inadequate infrastructure in these areas. However, studies on the impacts of neighborhood environments on children’s traffic risk perceptions remain limited. This study aims to reveal the influence of individual attributes, as well as macro- and micro-level environmental factors, on children’s risk perception using a hierarchical ordered logit model with random effects. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey of 404 school-aged children across fifty old residential neighborhoods in Changsha, China. The results indicated that girls generally perceive higher levels of traffic risk than boys. At the macro-level, low population density and high activity facilities coverage were associated with reduced risk perceptions among children. At the micro-level, obstructed views of intersections, curbside parking, and road damage were found to increase risk perceptions among children. Additionally, random effects related to gender, intersection type, intersection visibility, curbside parking, and sidewalk availability suggested the influence of unobserved factors. The findings underscore the need for targeted interventions, such as improving intersection visibility, managing curbside parking, and repairing road damage, to mitigate traffic risks. Policymakers and urban designers should focus on these aspects to enhance safety and create child-friendly residential environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"212 ","pages":"Article 107920"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142997824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Innovative prediction and causal analysis of accident vehicle towing probability using advanced gradient boosting techniques on extensive road traffic scene data 利用先进的梯度增强技术对大量道路交通场景数据进行事故车辆拖拽概率的创新预测与原因分析。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107909
Ronghui Zhang , Yang Liu , Zihan Wang , Junzhou Chen , Qiang Zeng , Lai Zheng , Hui Zhang , Yulong Pei
{"title":"Innovative prediction and causal analysis of accident vehicle towing probability using advanced gradient boosting techniques on extensive road traffic scene data","authors":"Ronghui Zhang ,&nbsp;Yang Liu ,&nbsp;Zihan Wang ,&nbsp;Junzhou Chen ,&nbsp;Qiang Zeng ,&nbsp;Lai Zheng ,&nbsp;Hui Zhang ,&nbsp;Yulong Pei","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2024.107909","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2024.107909","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate prediction and causal analysis of road crashes are crucial for improving road safety. One critical indicator of road crash severity is whether the involved vehicles require towing. Despite its importance, limited research has utilized this factor for predicting vehicle towing probability and analyzing its causal factors. This study addresses this gap by predicting the probability of vehicle towing in road crashes based on road scene features and identifying key causal factors. Utilizing the Transportation Injury Mapping System (TIMS) dataset from California, USA, encompassing 12 years, 14 relevant features, and over 2 million road crash records, research team developed a prediction model using advanced gradient boosting techniques. Our model outperforms Random Forest, GBDT, and XGBoost in predictive accuracy. Employing the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method, researchers elucidate seven key factors influencing towing necessity. These findings introduce a novel predictive approach and offer valuable insights for road crash risk assessment and road safety planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 107909"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142982484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An integrative approach to generating explainable safety assessment scenarios for autonomous vehicles based on Vision Transformer and SHAP 基于Vision Transformer和SHAP的自动驾驶汽车可解释安全评估场景综合生成方法。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107902
Minhee Kang , Keeyeon Hwang , Young Yoon
{"title":"An integrative approach to generating explainable safety assessment scenarios for autonomous vehicles based on Vision Transformer and SHAP","authors":"Minhee Kang ,&nbsp;Keeyeon Hwang ,&nbsp;Young Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2024.107902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2024.107902","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Automated Vehicles (AVs) are on the cusp of commercialization, prompting global governments to organize the forthcoming mobility phase. However, the advancement of technology alone cannot guarantee the successful commercialization of AVs without insights into the accidents on the read roads where Human-driven Vehicles (HV) coexist. To address such an issue, The New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) is currently in progress, and scenario-based approaches have been spotlighted. Scenario approaches offer a unique advantage by evaluating AV driving safety through carefully designed scenarios that reflect various real-world situations. While most scenario studies favor the data-driven approach, the studies have several shortcomings, including perspectives of data, AI models, and scenario standards. Hence, we propose a holistic framework for generating functional, logical, and concrete scenarios. The framework composes explainable scenarios (X-Scenarios) based on real-driving LiDAR data, and visual trend interpretation using eXplainable AI (XAI). The framework consists of four components as follows: (1) voxelization of LiDAR PCD and extraction of kinematic features; (2) classification of critical situations and generation of attention maps using visual XAI and Vision Transformer (ViT) to generate range values of elements in logical scenarios; (3) analysis of the importance and correlations among input data features using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for selecting scenarios based on the most relevant criteria; and (4) composition of AV safety assessment scenarios. X-scenarios generated from our framework involve the parameters of ego vehicles and surrounding objects on the highways and urban roads. With our framework highly trustworthy AV safety assessment scenarios can be created. This novel work provides an integrated solution to generate trustworthy scenarios for AV safety assessment by explaining the scenario selection process.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 107902"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142982483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Partially temporally constrained modeling of speeding crash-injury severities on freeways and non-freeways before, during, and after the stay-at-home order 在居家令之前、期间和之后高速公路和非高速公路上超速碰撞伤害严重程度的部分时间约束建模。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.107917
Li Song , Shijie Li , Qiming Yang , Bing Liu , Nengchao Lyu , Wei David Fan
{"title":"Partially temporally constrained modeling of speeding crash-injury severities on freeways and non-freeways before, during, and after the stay-at-home order","authors":"Li Song ,&nbsp;Shijie Li ,&nbsp;Qiming Yang ,&nbsp;Bing Liu ,&nbsp;Nengchao Lyu ,&nbsp;Wei David Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Speeding crashes remain high injury severities after the stay-at-home order in California, highlighting a need for further investigation into the fundamental cause of this increment. To systematically explore the temporal impacts of the stay-at-home order on speeding behaviors and the corresponding crash-injury outcomes, this study utilizes California-reported single-vehicle speeding crashes on freeways (access-controlled) and non-freeways (non-access-controlled) before, during, and after the order. Significant injury factors and in-depth heterogeneity across observations are identified by random parameter logit models with heterogeneity in means and variances. Without segmenting the data by periods, the partially temporally constrained approach is employed to statistically determine varying and stabilized parameters over time through the whole dataset. Different likelihood ratio tests reveal significant temporal instabilities and stabilities of factors between two roadways and three periods. The potential impacts of observation selection issues on the marginal effect calculations of the partially constrained models are also systematically investigated. Significant variations in the probability of severe injury rate per week after the order are also found based on the Mann-Whitney U tests. The hysteretic effects of the order on the crash frequency and severity are observed on both freeways and non-freeways. Overall, seven variables are found to have stable effects, while fifteen variables exhibit unstable effects over time. Significant temporal variations in driver behaviors, including driving under the influence, cell phone usage, hit-and-run, failure to use seat belt, entering or leaving the ramp, and reaction to previous collisions, are observed before, during, or after the order. Specific countermeasures and effects of heterogeneity in means and variances are also discussed. These findings provide insights into understanding the temporal impacts of the stay-at-home order on injury severities, which are valuable to decision-makers and researchers for future order practice, restriction improvement, and complementary policy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 107917"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142963538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating crash severity at highway-rail grade crossings using an analytic hierarchy process-based hazard index model 基于层次分析法的公路网平交道口碰撞严重程度评价。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2025.107918
Amin Keramati , Pan Lu , Afrooz Moatari-Kazerouni
{"title":"Evaluating crash severity at highway-rail grade crossings using an analytic hierarchy process-based hazard index model","authors":"Amin Keramati ,&nbsp;Pan Lu ,&nbsp;Afrooz Moatari-Kazerouni","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107918","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2025.107918","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Due to the substantial mass disparity between trains and highway vehicles, crashes at Highway-Rail Grade Crossings (HRGCs) are often severe. Therefore, it is essential to develop systematic frameworks for allocating federal and state funds to improve safety at the highest-risk grade crossings. Common techniques for hazard prioritization at HRGCs include the hazard index and the collision prediction formula. A few research projects and state departments of transportation (DOTs) have employed hybrid models that integrate crash hazard indices with prediction models to create comprehensive safety decision-making frameworks. In addition, ranking grade crossings based on their forecasted crash severity likelihood remains largely unexplored, partly due to the complexity of integrating crash severity outputs with hazard indices. This research introduces a new mixed hazard ranking model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process Hazard Index (AHP-HI), which serves as a decision-making tool for ranking grade crossings based on their potential for crash severity. The AHP-HI model combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the competing risk model (CRM), a prediction model that estimates the likelihood of crash severity for crossings. Risk analysis using the AHP-HI model categorizes public grade crossings in North Dakota into four risk levels, with 4.73% of the crossings identified as high risk.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 107918"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142963537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring the Mechanism for Increased Risk in Freeway Tunnel Approach Zones: A Perspective on Temporal-spatial Evolution of Driving Predictions, Tasks, and Behaviors 探索高速公路隧道引线区风险增加的机制:驾驶预测、任务和行为的时空演化视角。
IF 5.7 1区 工程技术
Accident; analysis and prevention Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2024.107914
Runzhao Bei , Zhigang Du , Nengchao Lyu , Liang Yu , Yongzheng Yang
{"title":"Exploring the Mechanism for Increased Risk in Freeway Tunnel Approach Zones: A Perspective on Temporal-spatial Evolution of Driving Predictions, Tasks, and Behaviors","authors":"Runzhao Bei ,&nbsp;Zhigang Du ,&nbsp;Nengchao Lyu ,&nbsp;Liang Yu ,&nbsp;Yongzheng Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.aap.2024.107914","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aap.2024.107914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freeway tunnel approach zones, situated outside the tunnel, do not undergo the same sudden changes in luminous environment and visual references that entrance zones experience. Despite this, accident data indicates that approach zones present similar safety risks to entrance zones, both of which are significantly higher than other tunnel sections. The reasons for the heightened risks in approach zones remain unclear in existing research. To address this knowledge gap, this study conducted real vehicle tests and subjective perception experiments. The Task Analysis of Driving Scenarios (TADS) was employed to analyze driving behavior patterns and develop a set of evaluation metrics, including four key driving behavior nodes (<em>P1_SGD, P2_EF, P3_FF, P4_SAD</em>), safety and efficacy indices for active deceleration behaviors (<em>I1_ADS, I2_ADE</em>), and two indicators for understanding anomalous behaviors (<em>SR, AOI_PFN</em>). By skillfully selecting scenarios to control variables, this research examined how limited visibility in tunnel approach zones and spatial intervisibility tunnels contribute to safety risks in these zones. Additionally, the Predictive Processing Model (PPM) was used to elucidate the temporal and spatial evolution of driving predictions, tasks, and behaviors under normal conditions. The findings reveal that, although heavy driving tasks cannot be avoided, under normal conditions, predictions develop gradually with minimal prediction errors, enabling effective navigation. However, limited visibility in tunnel approach zones and spatially intervisible tunnels lead to inaccuracies and deviations in predictions, resulting in significant prediction errors as drivers approach the tunnel. This causes more aggressive driving behaviors, disrupting the delicate balance of predictions and tasks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":6926,"journal":{"name":"Accident; analysis and prevention","volume":"211 ","pages":"Article 107914"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142942452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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