建模与仿真(英文)最新文献_第3页

StochSD: A Full Potential CSS Language for Dynamic and Stochastic Modelling, Simulation and Statistical Analysis 随机的动态和随机建模、模拟和统计分析的全潜力CSS语言

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2022.102012

L. Gustafsson, E. Gustafsson, M. Gustafsson

{"title":"StochSD: A Full Potential CSS Language for Dynamic and Stochastic Modelling, Simulation and Statistical Analysis","authors":"L. Gustafsson, E. Gustafsson, M. Gustafsson","doi":"10.4236/ojmsi.2022.102012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ojmsi.2022.102012","url":null,"abstract":"It is vital that a well-defined conceptual model can be realized by a macro-model (e.g., a Continuous System Simulation (CSS) model) or a micro-model (e.g., an Agent-Based model or Discrete Event Simulation model) and still produce mutually consistent results. The Full Potential CSS concept provides the rules so that the results from macro-modelling become fully consistent with those from micro-modelling. This paper focuses on the simulation language StochSD (Stochastic System Dynamics), which is an extension of classical Continuous System Simulation that implements the Full Potential CSS concept. Thus, in addition to modelling and simulating continuous flows between compartments represented by “real” numbers, it can also handle transitions of discrete entities by integer numbers, enabling combined models to be constructed in a straight-forward way. However, transition events of discrete entities (e.g., arrivals, accidents, deaths) usually happen irregularly over time, so stochasticity often plays a crucial role in their modelling. Therefore, StochSD contains powerful random functions to model uncertainties of different kinds, together with devices to collect statistics during a simulation or from multiple replications of the same stochastic model. Also, tools for sensitivity analysis, optimisation and statistical analysis are included. In particular, StochSD includes features for stochastic modelling, post-analysis of multiple simulations, and presentation of the results in statistical form. In addition to making StochSD a Full Potential CSS language, sive material for a course in Modelling and Simulation in form of PowerPoint lectures and laboratory exercises.","PeriodicalId":56990,"journal":{"name":"建模与仿真(英文)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70368651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Application Research on Real-Time Interactive Simulation System of Container Yard Based on Unity3D 基于Unity3D的集装箱堆场实时交互仿真系统应用研究

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2022.103016

Rongrong Hu, Xumin Zhou, Yiping Yu

引用次数: 2

Numerical Simulation and Measurement of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity in an Olive Cuttings Tunnel Greenhouse 橄榄枝隧道温室空气温度和相对湿度的数值模拟与测量

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2022.101002

Sanae Chakir, A. Bekraoui, H. Majdoubi, A. Senhaji, M. Mouqallid

引用次数: 0

Computational Analysis for Solving the Linear Space-Fractional Telegraph Equation 求解线性空间-分数阶电报方程的计算分析

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2022.103014

Z. M. Alaofi, T. El-Danaf, Adel R. Hadhoud, S. Dragomir

引用次数: 0

Bayesian Variable Selection for Mixture Process Variable Design Experiment 混合工艺变量设计实验的贝叶斯变量选择

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2022.104022

Sadiah M. A. Aljeddani

{"title":"Bayesian Variable Selection for Mixture Process Variable Design Experiment","authors":"Sadiah M. A. Aljeddani","doi":"10.4236/ojmsi.2022.104022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ojmsi.2022.104022","url":null,"abstract":"This paper discussed Bayesian variable selection methods for models from split-plot mixture designs using samples from Metropolis-Hastings within the Gibbs sampling algorithm. Bayesian variable selection is easy to implement due to the improvement in computing via MCMC sampling. We described the Bayesian methodology by introducing the Bayesian framework, and explaining Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The Metropolis-Hastings within Gibbs sampling was used to draw dependent samples from the full conditional distributions which were explained. In mixture experiments with process variables, the response depends not only on the proportions of the mixture components but also on the effects of the process variables. In many such mixture-process variable experiments, constraints such as time or cost prohibit the selection of treatments completely at random. In these situations, restrictions on the randomisation force the level combinations of one group of factors to be fixed and the combinations of the other group of factors are run. Then a new level of the first-factor group is set and combinations of the other factors are run. We discussed the computational algorithm for the Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) in linear mixed models. We extended the computational algorithm of SSVS to fit models from split-plot mixture design by introducing the algorithm of the Stochastic Search Variable Selection for Split-plot Design (SSVS-SPD). The motivation of this extension is that we have two different levels of the experimental units, one for the whole plots and the other for subplots in the split-plot mixture design.","PeriodicalId":56990,"journal":{"name":"建模与仿真(英文)","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70369038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Modeling the Nigerian Bonny Light Crude Oil Price: The Power of Fuzzy Time Series 尼日利亚邦尼轻质原油价格建模:模糊时间序列的力量

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94024

D. C. Bartholomew, U. C. Orumie, C. P. Obite, Blessing Iheoma Duru, F. C. Akanno

{"title":"Modeling the Nigerian Bonny Light Crude Oil Price: The Power of Fuzzy Time Series","authors":"D. C. Bartholomew, U. C. Orumie, C. P. Obite, Blessing Iheoma Duru, F. C. Akanno","doi":"10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94024","url":null,"abstract":"Several authors have used different classical statistical models to fit \u0000the Nigerian Bonny Light crude oil price but the application of machine \u0000learning models and Fuzzy Time Series model on the crude oil price has been \u0000grossly understudied. Therefore, in this study, a classical statistical model—Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), \u0000two machine learning models—Artificial \u0000Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF) and Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Model \u0000were compared in modeling the Nigerian Bonny Light crude oil price data for the \u0000periods from January, 2006 to December, 2020. The monthly secondary data were \u0000collected from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and Reuters \u0000website and divided into train (70%) and test (30%) sets. The train set was \u0000used in building the models and the models were validated using the test set. The \u0000performance measures used for the comparison include: The modified \u0000Diebold-Mariano test, the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the Mean Absolute \u0000Percentage Error (MAPE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values. Based on \u0000the performance measures, ANN (4, 1, 1) and RF performed better than ARIMA (1, 1, \u00000) model but FTS model using Chen’s algorithm outperformed every other model. \u0000The results recommend the use of FTS model for forecasting future values of the \u0000Nigerian Bonny Light Crude oil. However, a hybrid model of ARIMA-ANN or \u0000ARIMA-RF should be built and compared with Chen’s algorithm FTS model for the \u0000same data set to further verify the power of FTS model using Chen’s algorithm.","PeriodicalId":56990,"journal":{"name":"建模与仿真(英文)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44496729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Theoretical Analysis of the Effect of the Interfacial MoSe2 Layer in CIGS-Based Solar Cells CIGS基太阳能电池界面MoSe2层效应的理论分析

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94022

A. Sylla, N’Guessan Armel Ignace, T. Siaka, J. Vilcot

{"title":"Theoretical Analysis of the Effect of the Interfacial MoSe2 Layer in CIGS-Based Solar Cells","authors":"A. Sylla, N’Guessan Armel Ignace, T. Siaka, J. Vilcot","doi":"10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94022","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this work is to analyze the influence of the interfacial MoSe2 layer on the performance of a \u0000/n-ZnO/i-ZnO/n-Zn(O,S)/p-CIGS/p+-MoSe2/Mo/SLG solar cell. In this investigation, the numerical simulation software AFORS-HET is used to calculate the electrical \u0000characteristics of the cell with and without this MoSe2 layer. Different \u0000reported experimental works have highlighted the presence of a thin-film MoSe2 layer at the \u0000CIGS/Mo contact interface. Under a tunneling effect, this MoSe2 layer transforms \u0000the Schottky CIGS/Mo contact nature into a quasi-ohmic one. Owing to a heavily \u0000p-doping, the MoSe2 thin layer allows better transport of majority carrier, tunneling them from \u0000CIGS to Mo. Moreover, the bandgap of MoSe2 is wider than that of the CIGS absorbing layer, such that an electric field is \u0000generated close to the back surface. The presence of this electric field \u0000reduces carrier recombination at the interface. Under these conditions, we \u0000examined the performance of the cell with and without MoSe2 layer. When the \u0000thickness of the CIGS absorber is in the range from 3.5 μm down to 1.5 μm, the \u0000efficiency of the cell with a MoSe2 interfacial layer remains almost constant, about 24.6%, while that of the MoSe2-free \u0000solar cell decreases from 24.6% to 23.4%. Besides, a Schottky barrier height \u0000larger than 0.45 eV severely affects the fill factor and open circuit voltage \u0000of the solar cell with MoSe2 interface layer compared to the MoSe2-free solar cell.","PeriodicalId":56990,"journal":{"name":"建模与仿真(英文)","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45299640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Generalized Power Akshaya Distribution and Its Applications 广义幂Akshaya分布及其应用

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94021

Ahmed T. Ramadan, A. Tolba, B. El-Desouky

引用次数: 10

Flexible Reduced Logarithmic-Inverse Lomax Distribution with Application for Bladder Cancer 柔性约对数逆Lomax分布在膀胱癌中的应用

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2021-08-27 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2021.94023

M. M. Buzaridah, Dina A. Ramadan, B. El-Desouky

引用次数: 3

A Sequential Shrinkage Estimating Method for Tobit Regression Model Tobit回归模型的序贯收缩估计方法

建模与仿真(英文) Pub Date : 2021-05-21 DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2021.93018

H. Lu, Cuiling Dong, Juling Zhou

引用次数: 0