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Classification of Clustered Snow Off Dates Over British Columbia, Canada, from Mean Sea Level Pressure 根据平均海平面压力对加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省积雪聚集日期的分类
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1845116
H. Gleason, A. Bevington, V. Foord
{"title":"Classification of Clustered Snow Off Dates Over British Columbia, Canada, from Mean Sea Level Pressure","authors":"H. Gleason, A. Bevington, V. Foord","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1845116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1845116","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Atmosphere–ocean teleconnections influence the accumulation and melt of snow in western Canada and can be useful in seasonal forecasting of snowmelt and runoff. Interannual variation in these atmosphere–ocean modes has been shown to influence the accumulation and melt of snow within British Columbia (BC), Canada. We investigate fall mean sea level pressure (MSLP) globally as a predictor of remotely sensed snowmelt dates within BC. We use the last day of continuous snow cover ( ) detected from time series satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer for the hydrological years 2000–2018. It has been shown that is correlated with continuous snow duration and is also of interest to seasonal forecasters. Global MSLP from the Fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts was obtained over hydrological years 1979–2018. An S-mode (time versus location) principal component analysis was carried out on both datasets. The principal component scores were grouped using a k-means clustering routine. Using evolutionary feature selection, the subset of MSLP principal components that provided good linear discrimination of the clusters were found. We explore the atmospheric MSLP principal components that influence the timing of snowmelt over BC and use them to predict the clusters at a seasonal lead time.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"333 - 350"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1845116","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46904140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Neural Network Classification of Ice-Crystal Images Observed by an Airborne Cloud Imaging Probe 机载云成像探测器观测到的冰晶图像的神经网络分类
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1843393
Zepei Wu, Shuo Liu, Delong Zhao, Ling Yang, Zi‐Xin Xu, Zhipeng Yang, W. Zhou, Hui He, Mengyu Huang, Dantong Liu, Ruijie Li, D. Ding
{"title":"Neural Network Classification of Ice-Crystal Images Observed by an Airborne Cloud Imaging Probe","authors":"Zepei Wu, Shuo Liu, Delong Zhao, Ling Yang, Zi‐Xin Xu, Zhipeng Yang, W. Zhou, Hui He, Mengyu Huang, Dantong Liu, Ruijie Li, D. Ding","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1843393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1843393","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In the atmosphere, cloud particles have different shapes. The study of cloud particle shapes plays an important role in understanding cloud precipitation processes, radiative transfer, and weather modification. The image resolution and data quality of cloud probes affect the accuracy of the classification of particle shapes. To solve the occlusion of the photosensitive edge of the particle image and achieve automatic, high-precision ice-crystal classification of airborne Cloud Imaging Probe (CIP) ice-crystal images, this study uses a traditional image processing algorithm for data quality control and applies artificial intelligence algorithms to classify ice-crystal images. At present, there are mainly two types of ice-crystal classification methods, one classifies the shape of ice crystals using a pattern parameterization scheme, and the other uses an artificial intelligence network model to classify the shape. Combined with data quality control, the dataset was tested on eight models, and the TL-EfficientNet-b6 model was found to be the most accurate. Therefore, the TL-EfficientNet-b6 classifier model was used in this study, which is a newly developed convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a transfer learning method. Experimental results show that the TL-EfficientNet-b6 model can reach 100% in the single-class precision of tiny and hexagonal ice crystals, and the average precision can reach 98%. These results are more accurate than those using traditional classification methods. This method could be valuable in cloud microphysics research and weather modification.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"303 - 315"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1843393","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48950829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in Canada: 20 Years of CLDN Data 加拿大云对地闪电:20年的CLDN数据
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1845117
B. Kochtubajda, W. Burrows
{"title":"Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in Canada: 20 Years of CLDN Data","authors":"B. Kochtubajda, W. Burrows","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1845117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1845117","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study presents the spatial and temporal features of more than 45 million cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes recorded by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network for the years 1999–2018. Although sensor upgrades have improved the detection efficiency and location accuracy of CG lightning, the large-scale spatial patterns remain about the same as found in a previous study covering the years 1999–2008. Analyses, using equal-area squares with 10 km sides, describe the regional and seasonal characteristics of negative and positive flashes, the percentage and flash density of positive lightning, and the first-stroke peak currents of both polarities. Lightning activity over the provinces and territories is greatest in the summer, varying from 95.9% to 76.8% of the annual activity in the Northwest Territories and Ontario, respectively. Winter lightning is rare, usually occurring in extreme southern Ontario and the Atlantic Provinces, as well as over offshore regions west of Vancouver Island and the coastal waters off Nova Scotia. Preliminary analysis suggests that, compared with the 1999–2008 period, the majority of western and northern Canada has experienced more lightning days during the 2009–2018 period, whereas much of eastern Canada has experienced fewer lightning days. A statistical analysis performed on 154 stations across Canada found that the decadal increases (decreases) at 5 (31) stations were significant at the 90% confidence level or higher, and 4 (16) of these were significant at the 95% confidence level.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"316 - 332"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1845117","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48019110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Scenarios of Twenty-First Century Mean Sea Level Rise at Tide-Gauge Stations Across Canada 场景的21世纪意味着海平面上升潮汐计站在加拿大
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1792404
G. Han, Zhimin Ma, A. Slangen
{"title":"Scenarios of Twenty-First Century Mean Sea Level Rise at Tide-Gauge Stations Across Canada","authors":"G. Han, Zhimin Ma, A. Slangen","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1792404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1792404","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Existing scientific literature and international assessments, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, provide a wide range of projections for global mean sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century. At the local scale, the ranges or uncertainties of projections are even larger. There is a pressing need to compile plausible local SLR scenarios to aid coastal communities with adaptation. Here we develop three local SLR scenarios for Canadian tide-gauge stations for the twenty-first century (Low, Intermediate, and High). Our Low Scenario is based on projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scaled down to the present global SLR rate. Our Intermediate Scenario is based on projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), and our High Scenario is based on the RCP8.5 projections with an adjusted contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. For all three scenarios, we use vertical land motion (VLM) from global positioning systems (GPS) data corrected for the present-day melt of glaciers and ice sheets instead of the commonly used VLM from a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The GPS data include not only GIA but also other processes affecting VLM. For each scenario, larger SLR is projected along the southeastern Atlantic coast, the Pacific coast, and the Beaufort Sea coast than along other Canadian coasts in the twenty-first century. Under the Low, Intermediate, and High Scenarios, the median relative sea level along the southeastern Atlantic coast may rise by as much as 0.39, 0.82, and 0.96 m, respectively, over 2010–2100. The proposed scenarios allow coastal engineers and managers to consider multiple future conditions and develop multiple response options, as well as choose the most suitable option according to the risk tolerance of infrastructure.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"287 - 301"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1792404","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46412864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Improving the Representation of Historical Climate Precipitation Indices Using Optimal Interpolation Methods 利用最优插值方法改进历史气候降水指数的表征
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1800444
Alexis Pérez Bello, A. Mailhot
{"title":"Improving the Representation of Historical Climate Precipitation Indices Using Optimal Interpolation Methods","authors":"Alexis Pérez Bello, A. Mailhot","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1800444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1800444","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Defining a reference climate for precipitation is an important requirement in the development of climate change scenarios to support climate adaptation strategies. It is also important for many hydrological and water resource applications. This, however, remains a challenge in regions that are poorly covered by meteorological stations, such as northern Canada or mountainous regions. Reanalyses may represent an interesting option to define a reference climate in such regions. However, these need to be validated and corrected for bias before they can be used. In this paper, two data assimilation methods, Optimal Interpolation (OI) and Ensemble Optimal interpolation (EnOI), were used to combine four reanalysis datasets with observations in order to improve the representation of various precipitation indices across Canada. A total of 986 meteorological stations with minimally 20-year precipitation records over the 30-year reference period (1980–2009) were used. Annual values of ten Climate Precipitations Indices (CPIs) were estimated for each available dataset and were then combined (reanalysis plus observations) using OI and EnOI. A cross-validation strategy was finally applied to assess the relative performance of these datasets. Results suggest that combining reanalysis and observations through OI or EnOI improves CPI estimates at sites where no recorded precipitation is available. The EnOI dataset outperformed OI applied to each reanalysis independently. An evaluation of the gridded interpolated observational dataset from Natural Resources Canada showed it should be used with considerable caution for extreme CPIs because it can underestimate annual maximum 1-day precipitation, as well as overestimate the annual number of wet days.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"243 - 257"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1800444","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48478429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak North of 70°N Over the Canadian Arctic Islands with Unusual Lightning Characteristics 加拿大北极群岛以北70°N的一次具有异常闪电特征的强雷暴爆发
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1792405
Daniel M. Brown, B. Kochtubajda, R. Said
{"title":"A Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak North of 70°N Over the Canadian Arctic Islands with Unusual Lightning Characteristics","authors":"Daniel M. Brown, B. Kochtubajda, R. Said","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1792405","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1792405","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study explores the causes of a severe thunderstorm outbreak north of 70°N on 24–25 July 2014 and provides the first characterization of lightning over the Canadian Arctic Islands. Lightning data were obtained from the Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) network. Convective available potential energy calculated using representative soundings and surface conditions indicated high instability that, combined with large vertical wind shear and storm-relative helicity, likely caused severe thunderstorms to form over Victoria Island. These storms subsequently drifted northeastward over Parry Channel, where they transitioned into elevated storms and travelled as far north as and passed close to Grise Fiord (76.4°N). Satellite imagery suggested that overshooting tops reached 11.6 km. The GLD360 network detected more than 15,000 strokes north of the Arctic Circle and an unusually high ratio of positive strokes during this outbreak.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"231 - 242"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1792405","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46141853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Performance Evaluation of Parameterizations for Wind Input and Wave Dissipation in the Spectral Wave Model for the Northwest Atlantic Ocean 西北大西洋谱波模式中风输入和波耗散参数化的性能评价
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1790336
Shangfei Lin, J. Sheng, J. Xing
{"title":"Performance Evaluation of Parameterizations for Wind Input and Wave Dissipation in the Spectral Wave Model for the Northwest Atlantic Ocean","authors":"Shangfei Lin, J. Sheng, J. Xing","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1790336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1790336","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT An ocean wave model for the northwest Atlantic Ocean based on WAVEWATCH III is used to evaluate four different source term packages (known as ST2, ST3, ST4, and ST6) for the wind input and wave dissipation. The performance of ST2, ST3, ST4, and ST6 is assessed using available measurements from buoy stations and satellite altimeters. The model results for significant wave height ( ), mean wave period ( ), wave spectrum, wind input, and wave dissipation are examined during two periods: (i) winter storms in February and (ii) Hurricane Ophelia in September/October 2011. Analyses of model results demonstrate that ST4 and ST6 have the best performance with an average scatter index within 19.0% for and in the presence of strong currents and sea ice. These four packages perform differently under different sea states. Package ST6 generally overestimates under the wind-wave-dominated sea states because of strong wind input and fast wave growth but underestimates under swell-dominated sea states because of strong swell dissipation. The effects of ocean surface currents and sea ice on the wave model performance are also investigated. The linear kinematic effects of surface currents on waves can cause non-linear dynamic effects, which can differ among the four packages. Wave scattering in sea ice increases the wave directional spread and may cause an increase in . In the presence of sea ice, wind input is reduced and shifted to higher frequencies and wave dissipation is further suppressed.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"258 - 286"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1790336","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42818241","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
Impacts of Stratification Variation on the M2 Internal Tide Generation in Luzon Strait 分层变化对吕宋海峡M2内潮产生的影响
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1767534
Zheng Guo, A. Cao, Xianqing Lv, Jinbao Song
{"title":"Impacts of Stratification Variation on the M2 Internal Tide Generation in Luzon Strait","authors":"Zheng Guo, A. Cao, Xianqing Lv, Jinbao Song","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1767534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1767534","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Topographic features, stratification, and barotropic tidal currents are three factors that determine internal tide (IT) generation. However, the mechanism of the impacts of stratification variation on IT generation in Luzon Strait (LS) has not been extensively explored. A three-dimensional high-resolution model is used to simulate the M2 ITs in the northern South China Sea (SCS) under different stratification conditions. The model is run with idealized topographies where the east or west ridge of LS is removed. Results indicate that both the M2 conversion rate and energy fluxes in the northern SCS show seasonal variations that are site dependent. By analyzing all the results from the simulations, we find that stratification variation changes IT generation in LS mainly through two mechanisms. First, the impact of stratification variation on the bottom pressure perturbation is caused by barotropic tidal currents flowing over topographic features, which directly affects the conversion. Second, stratification variation changes the wavelength of ITs and, hence, the interference of ITs within the double ridges, which finally changes the conversion in LS. The second mechanism is found to be the dominant one for seasonal variation of the M2 IT generation in LS.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"206 - 218"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1767534","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43537320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Relationships Among SST Variability, Physical, and Biological Parameters in the Northeastern Indian Ocean 印度洋东北部SST变化、物理和生物参数之间的关系
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1767028
Thushani Suleka Madhubhashini Elepathage, D. Tang
{"title":"Relationships Among SST Variability, Physical, and Biological Parameters in the Northeastern Indian Ocean","authors":"Thushani Suleka Madhubhashini Elepathage, D. Tang","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1767028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1767028","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study modelled physical and biological changes in the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, and the exclusive economic zone around Sri Lanka by examining the relationships between sea surface temperature (SST) and a range of biological and physical variables allowing prediction of the changes in the variables studied with changing temperature. Datasets were extracted from satellite data from 2003 to 2015. Boosted regression trees (BRT) were used to model the data and identify their (non-linear) relationships. Within the study region and based on the BRT model, nitrate, latent heat flux, wind speed, and chlorophyll a (chl a) concentration in open water were found to have negative relationships with SST, while air temperature and ozone mass mixing ratio had positive relationships. Seasonal peak values of wind speed and chl a concentrations occurred from June to August. Peak SST and air temperature values occurred from March to May, peak nitrate and latent heat values from September to November, and peak ozone mass mixing ratios from December to February. The highly correlated ranges of air temperature, nitrate concentration, open water latent energy flux, surface wind speed, chl a concentration, and ozone mass mixing ratio for SST above 28°C were 299–300.5 K, >0.2 µmol L−1, 120–160 W m−2, 4–8 m s−1, 0.1–1 mg m−3, and 4.5–5.5 × 10−8, respectively.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"192 - 205"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1767028","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42293110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Study of Eleven Tropical Cyclones Simulated by Sample Optimization of an Ensemble Forecast Based on the Observed Track 基于观测轨迹的集合预报样本优化模拟11个热带气旋的研究
IF 1.2 4区 地球科学
Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2020.1770053
Jihang Li, Zhiyan Zhang, Q. Wan, Yudong Gao
{"title":"Study of Eleven Tropical Cyclones Simulated by Sample Optimization of an Ensemble Forecast Based on the Observed Track","authors":"Jihang Li, Zhiyan Zhang, Q. Wan, Yudong Gao","doi":"10.1080/07055900.2020.1770053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2020.1770053","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The quality of ensemble forecasts is significantly affected by sample quality. In this paper, the influence of sample quality on simulation results is analyzed by optimizing the distribution of ensemble members. As part of our research, simulated and observed tracks are compared; samples with smaller track errors are retained, and samples with larger track errors are eliminated in order to improve the overall quality of the ensemble forecast. The Weather and Research Forecasting model was used to simulate 11 tropical cyclones that occurred in the northwest Pacific to test the ability of our scheme to improve the forecast track of these cyclones. The results show that, in most cases, sample optimization effectively reduces the track error of tropical cyclones. Overall, the 12-hour, 24-hour, and 36-hour errors in the forecast track are reduced by 10.95 km (20.35%), 10.26 km (16.95%), and 10.1 km (14.71%), respectively. In addition, the forecast of tropical cyclone intensity was improved to a certain extent. Thus, it was confirmed through quantitative measurements that sample optimization based on the observed track improves the track prediction of tropical cyclones.","PeriodicalId":55434,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere-Ocean","volume":"58 1","pages":"157 - 172"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2020-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/07055900.2020.1770053","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41959660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
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