Study of Eleven Tropical Cyclones Simulated by Sample Optimization of an Ensemble Forecast Based on the Observed Track

IF 1.6 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Atmosphere-Ocean Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI:10.1080/07055900.2020.1770053

Jihang Li, Zhiyan Zhang, Q. Wan, Yudong Gao

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引用次数: 1

Abstract

ABSTRACT The quality of ensemble forecasts is significantly affected by sample quality. In this paper, the influence of sample quality on simulation results is analyzed by optimizing the distribution of ensemble members. As part of our research, simulated and observed tracks are compared; samples with smaller track errors are retained, and samples with larger track errors are eliminated in order to improve the overall quality of the ensemble forecast. The Weather and Research Forecasting model was used to simulate 11 tropical cyclones that occurred in the northwest Pacific to test the ability of our scheme to improve the forecast track of these cyclones. The results show that, in most cases, sample optimization effectively reduces the track error of tropical cyclones. Overall, the 12-hour, 24-hour, and 36-hour errors in the forecast track are reduced by 10.95 km (20.35%), 10.26 km (16.95%), and 10.1 km (14.71%), respectively. In addition, the forecast of tropical cyclone intensity was improved to a certain extent. Thus, it was confirmed through quantitative measurements that sample optimization based on the observed track improves the track prediction of tropical cyclones.

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基于观测轨迹的集合预报样本优化模拟11个热带气旋的研究

集合预测的质量在很大程度上受样本质量的影响。本文通过优化系综成员的分布，分析了样本质量对模拟结果的影响。作为我们研究的一部分，对模拟轨迹和观测轨迹进行了比较；保留具有较小跟踪误差的样本，并消除具有较大跟踪误差的采样，以提高集合预测的整体质量。天气与研究预报模型用于模拟西北太平洋发生的11个热带气旋，以测试我们的方案改进这些气旋预报轨迹的能力。结果表明，在大多数情况下，样本优化有效地降低了热带气旋的路径误差。总体而言，预测轨迹中的12小时、24小时和36小时误差分别减少了10.95公里（20.35%）、10.26公里（16.95%）和10.1公里（14.71%）。此外，对热带气旋强度的预报也得到了一定程度的改进。因此，通过定量测量证实，基于观测路径的样本优化改进了热带气旋的路径预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Atmosphere-Ocean 地学-海洋学

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

16.70%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Atmosphere-Ocean is the principal scientific journal of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS). It contains results of original research, survey articles, notes and comments on published papers in all fields of the atmospheric, oceanographic and hydrological sciences. Arctic, coastal and mid- to high-latitude regions are areas of particular interest. Applied or fundamental research contributions in English or French on the following topics are welcomed: climate and climatology; observation technology, remote sensing; forecasting, modelling, numerical methods; physics, dynamics, chemistry, biogeochemistry; boundary layers, pollution, aerosols; circulation, cloud physics, hydrology, air-sea interactions; waves, ice, energy exchange and related environmental topics.