{"title":"Privacy-preserving multi-source transfer learning for credit risk prediction with mixture cure models","authors":"Xiaoyan Wang, Ankang Jiao, Jingmao Li, Kuangnan Fang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.045","url":null,"abstract":"A central challenge in credit risk management is the dynamic assessment of borrower default risk, particularly under conditions of data scarcity. To address this issue, this study proposes a multi-source transfer learning framework for the mixture cure model (MTL-MCM). The MCM first distinguishes long-term non-defaulters from potential defaulters through the incidence model and then predicts the time-dependent default probabilities of the latter via the latency model, thereby enabling more accurate dynamic default prediction. To enhance model performance in target data with limited sample size, the proposed framework facilitates knowledge transfer from multiple heterogeneous sources and accommodates diverse types of information. Only summarized knowledge, rather than raw data, is utilized, thereby ensuring privacy protection. A two-level adaptive weighting mechanism is developed to dynamically evaluate the quality of each source, enabling more efficient transfer learning. Model estimation is performed using a regularized Expectation–Maximization algorithm. Simulation studies show that MTL-MCM outperforms alternative methods in variable selection, parameter estimation, and dynamic risk prediction. Moreover, an empirical analysis using cross-platform credit data further demonstrates the model’s practical utility in constructing dynamic credit scoring systems for new business applications.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149085319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Minimum risk consensus model based on consensus breakdown probability","authors":"Weiwei Guo, Yunyun Wang, Zaiwu Gong, Xiaoqin Chen, Xiao Tan, Shuli Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.036","url":null,"abstract":"In group decision-making (GDM) and consensus reaching process (CRP), the imbalance in interest distribution can easily induce consensus risks, and even lead to consensus breakdown. However, most existing consensus models focus on cost minimization, overlooking the importance of risk quantification and control. To address these issues, we propose the concepts of consensus risk and consensus breakdown probability, construct a basic paradigm of the minimum risk consensus model (MRCM), and provide four fundamental theorems that characterize the essential properties of consensus risk. Furthermore, we define the consensus level, fairness index and consensus breakdown index in the CRP, and reveal the geometric significance of fairness index in consensus analysis, thereby providing theoretical support for analyzing the consensus risk mechanism. Subsequently, we categorize the sources of consensus risk into two types: return imbalance and output-to-input ratio imbalance, and construct two types of MRCMs—one based on consensus level and fairness index, and the other based on Equity Theory. These models are simplified and transformed to enhance computational tractability, and the corresponding minimum risk CRP and algorithm are developed. Finally, we use a consensus problem based on carbon emission benchmark value to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed models. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to examine the effects of parameter changes on consensus results, while a comparative analysis highlights the differences among models across multiple dimensions.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"107 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149085480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhiyuan Yang, Miaomiao Wang, Lu Zhen, Shuaian Wang
{"title":"Integrated deployment and operational planning of offshore wind-aquaculture coupled systems","authors":"Zhiyuan Yang, Miaomiao Wang, Lu Zhen, Shuaian Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.044","url":null,"abstract":"The integration of offshore wind energy generation with marine aquaculture offers a promising pathway for jointly supporting renewable energy production and sustainable seafood supply. Existing studies have mainly examined the techno-economic feasibility of such integration, while optimization-based research on the deployment and operation of such systems remains limited. This study fills this gap by developing an integrated optimization framework for an offshore wind–aquaculture coupled system (OWACS) with pre-screened candidate turbine platforms. The purpose is to quantify the economic value of coupling offshore wind with marine aquaculture, identify the operational mechanisms that drive system profitability, and provide practical guidance for early-stage OWACS planning. To this end, we formulate a two-stage stochastic programming model that coordinates strategic decisions (e.g., platform commissioning and aquaculture species allocation) and operational decisions (e.g., energy storage, electricity sales, and aquaculture production), while also incorporating uncertainties in energy production and market prices. To solve the resulting model, we develop a tailored exact Benders-based algorithm and strengthen the master problem with problem-specific valid inequalities and lower bounds. Computational experiments based on offshore wind-aquaculture planning instances demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. The results offer several insights into OWACS planning: aquaculture integration improves profitability, co-culture can better balance revenue generation and emission limits, earlier platform commissioning increases system value, and front-loaded carbon reduction mitigates profit losses under tighter emission targets. As an additional extension, we incorporate commissioning-dependent wake losses and an endogenous radial inter-array cable network into the model and develop a customized adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm for larger instances.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149085320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peng He, Henry Xu, Zhongyi Huang, Helen Cai, Victor Shi
{"title":"Strategic cooperation: Winning in live-streaming e-commerce with key opinion leaders","authors":"Peng He, Henry Xu, Zhongyi Huang, Helen Cai, Victor Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.047","url":null,"abstract":"In live-streaming e-commerce, brands, Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs), and social platforms must make complex decisions about collaboration structures, balancing sales incentives against the risk of long-term reputation loss. Using differential game theory, this paper investigates three cooperation modes in a three-echelon social e-commerce supply chain: the independent-KOL mode, the brand-signing KOL mode, and the platform-signing KOL mode. Our findings indicate that when the live-streaming promotion effect is relatively strong, a higher KOL commission rate enhances brand goodwill when the reputation loss effect is relatively weak, but diminishes brand goodwill when the reputation loss effect is relatively strong. Moreover, the brand-signing mode enhances brand goodwill and KOL influence when both platform and KOL commission rates are relatively low. Conversely, when these rates exceed certain thresholds, the platform-signing mode becomes more advantageous and expands market demand. Additionally, signing a KOL accelerates profit growth for the signing parties, while non-signing members can also benefit from others' cooperative arrangements. Finally, the brand- or platform-signing KOL modes yield higher total cooperative profit than the independent-KOL mode when live-streaming efficiency is lower, whereas the opposite holds when efficiency is higher. These results offer strategic guidance for brand managers and platform operators in optimizing partnership structures and mitigating the dynamic risks inherent in KOL live-streaming.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149085346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Imanol Gago-Carro, Unai Aldasoro, María Merino, Angel Ruiz
{"title":"Applying Distributionally Robust Optimization frameworks to tackle travel-time uncertainty in the ambulance location and dispatching problem","authors":"Imanol Gago-Carro, Unai Aldasoro, María Merino, Angel Ruiz","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.043","url":null,"abstract":"The efficient management of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) relies on the strategic location of ambulances and their optimal dispatching, two decisions that are inherently challenged by considerable uncertainty. This paper addresses the ambulance location and dispatching problem under uncertain travel times, a factor often overlooked in the literature that nonetheless plays a critical role in response times. Travel-time uncertainty is represented by a finite, data-driven set of candidate probability distributions fitted to historical data. On this set we build three distribution-aware frameworks: a min–max model over the candidate set (Distributionally Robust Optimization), a model that averages performance over the set (Distributionally Stochastic Optimization), and a scenario-robust extension (Distributionally scenario Robust Optimization). The performance of the solutions they produced to a manageable subset of scenarios (in-sample experiments) is evaluated on different realizations of travel-time uncertainty (out-of-sample experiments) constructed on historical data from the EMS in the Basque Country (Spain). The results highlight the importance of explicitly modeling travel-time uncertainty in EMS system design. Finally, a Discrete Event Simulation model allows assessing the behavior of those solutions when the spatial and temporal variability of emergency call patterns are incorporated. The distribution-aware solutions align with Stochastic Optimization in similar average response time while improving the response time attained under the most adverse candidate distribution, and they avoid the conservatism of Robust Optimization.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149085321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Guilherme Barbosa de Almeida, Marcone Jamilson Freitas Souza, Elisangela Martins de Sá, Sérgio Ricardo de Souza
{"title":"A new cut-and-solve-based approach for the single-source capacitated facility location problem","authors":"Guilherme Barbosa de Almeida, Marcone Jamilson Freitas Souza, Elisangela Martins de Sá, Sérgio Ricardo de Souza","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.042","url":null,"abstract":"The Single-Source Capacitated Facility Location Problem involves locating facilities so that each customer’s demand is met by a single facility and capacity constraints are not violated. This paper focuses on developing an exact algorithm to handle this problem. In this sense, we propose an algorithm that uses four strategies: (i) strengthening the problem formulation through a cutting-plane procedure; (ii) exploiting partial linear relaxations to obtain good lower bounds; (iii) applying a heuristic to obtain a good upper bound; and (iv) applying a Cut-and-Solve-based scheme to construct a binary search tree. We evaluate and select cutting-plane generation procedures that differ from those previously used for the problem and propose a new heuristic procedure. The results of the computational experiments showed that the proposed algorithm found a greater or equal number of optimal values with lower runtime than the state-of-the-art exact algorithm in 22 out of 26 subsets, and than the CPLEX solver in 19 out of 26 subsets.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149085322","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Permutation tests on common production frontiers in nonparametric models","authors":"Anders Rønn-Nielsen, Dorte Kronborg, Mette Asmild","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.021","url":null,"abstract":"Permutation techniques, which involve recomputing a test statistic over permutations of data, have a long history in statistics and have become increasingly useful with the availability of greater computational power. However, until now, there have been no permutation tests available for statistical analysis within non-parametric models for production frontiers.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149085323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jing Chen, Shanshan Guo, Hang Wei, Lei Xie, Chaonan Zheng
{"title":"The impact of resale price maintenance on a legitimate retailer’s decision to sell counterfeits in dual-channel competition","authors":"Jing Chen, Shanshan Guo, Hang Wei, Lei Xie, Chaonan Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.014","url":null,"abstract":"The higher profits from selling counterfeits may tempt legitimate retailers to engage in such practices. When brands gain channel advantages through direct stores or pricing power, this can intensify intra-brand competition and further incentivize counterfeit sales. Two common scenarios are widely observed in practice. The brand enforces a Resale Price Maintenance (RPM) policy to control the retail price (RPM model) and the retailer can set retail price freely (Non-RPM model). We consider a dual-channel competition game where a brand sells its products through its direct channel and a licit retailer in a distribution channel. The licit retailer could procure deceptive counterfeits from an outside supplier. The channel competition is captured by a standard Hotelling model and the quality difference represents the quality competition between deceptive counterfeits and brand-name products. We find that selling counterfeits provides the cost-saving force and the market-loss force which drive the retailer to increase and decrease the proportion of deceptive counterfeits respectively. RPM may boost the flood of counterfeits with intense channel competition. Interestingly, allowing the retailer to set retail prices can generate an anti-counterfeiting benefit at the cost of a reduction in brand and retailer’s profits when channel competition becomes excessive. Under moderate channel competition and low-quality competition, granting pricing right to retailers reduces consumer surplus but enhances overall supply chain performance and social welfare by reducing counterfeiting and elevating retail prices across both channels.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148980017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"To cooperate with top-tier streamers or not? A sequential bargaining approach in live-streaming supply chains","authors":"Tong Xu, Dong Yang, Junjun Kong, Minyue Jin","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2026.09.005","url":null,"abstract":"In live-streaming supply chains, manufacturers face a strategic choice between cooperating with a top-tier streamer, who offers broad market exposure but stronger bargaining power, and a small-scale streamer, who provides greater pricing flexibility but limited reach. To examine this trade-off, we develop a three-party sequential bargaining model with one manufacturer and two asymmetric streamers, incorporating the effect of streamers’ engagement effort on consumer demand. Interestingly, we find that cooperation with a top-tier streamer does not necessarily lead to a higher negotiated price. When the top-tier streamer’s reservation profit is sufficiently high, the manufacturer may lower the price to satisfy the streamer’s participation constraint, resulting in a lower price than under cooperation with the small-scale streamer. We also show that lower production costs can strengthen the manufacturer’s incentive to cooperate with the top-tier streamer by amplifying the value of broader market reach. Finally, our welfare analysis identifies two win–win regions in which both the manufacturer and consumers benefit. These findings offer insights into manufacturer–streamer cooperation and pricing decisions in live-streaming commerce.","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148980018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}