{"title":"Novel adaptive parameter fractional-order gradient descent learning for stock selection decision support systems","authors":"Mingjie Ma , Siyuan Chen , Lunan Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Gradient descent methods are widely used as optimization algorithms for updating neural network weights. With advancements in fractional-order calculus, fractional-order gradient descent algorithms have demonstrated superior optimization performance. Nevertheless, existing fractional-order gradient descent algorithms have shortcomings in terms of structural design and theoretical derivation. Specifically, the convergence of fractional-order algorithms in the existing literature relies on the assumed boundedness of network weights. This assumption leads to uncertainty in the optimization results. To address this issue, this paper proposes several adaptive parameter fractional-order gradient descent learning (AP-FOGDL) algorithms based on the Caputo and Riemann–Liouville derivatives. To fully leverage the convergence theorem, an adaptive learning rate is designed by introducing computable upper bounds. The convergence property is then theoretically proven for both derivatives, with and without the adaptive learning rate. Moreover, to enhance prediction accuracy, an amplification factor is employed to increase the adaptive learning rate. Finally, practical applications on a stock selection dataset and a bankruptcy dataset substantiate the feasibility, high accuracy, and strong generalization performance of the proposed algorithms. A comparative study between the proposed methods and other relevant gradient descent methods demonstrates the superiority of the AP-FOGDL algorithms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"324 1","pages":"Pages 276-289"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143049756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Strategic decentralization of self-branded and contract manufacturing businesses","authors":"Wei Li , Yanglei Li , Jing Chen , Bintong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.017","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.017","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper explores the incentive of a competitive contract manufacturer (CCM) to adopt a decentralized structure by segregating contract manufacturing from its self-branded business. We consider an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with the option to outsource production either to a CCM producing its self-branded product, or to a non-competitive contract manufacturer (NCM) also serving another OEM. The CCM has the option to centralize or decentralize its two businesses and competes in quantity with both OEMs in the end-user market. Our analysis of the strategic interactions between the OEM's outsourcing decision and the CCM's organizational structure choice shows that the likelihood of the OEM outsourcing to the CCM increases when the CCM adopts a decentralized structure compared to a centralized one. Under decentralization, a sufficiently low wholesale price offered by the contract manufacturing division provides the OEM with a competitive advantage. Consequently, the CCM is motivated to strategically deploy a decentralized structure to attract contract manufacturing business from the OEM, even though decentralization yields a lower profit than centralization. However, the CCM must be cautious when implementing a decentralized structure to secure orders from the OEM. The resulting intensified market competition undermines its profit from self-branded business and potentially makes it worse off from producing for the OEM. In such case, the CCM should maintain a centralized structure and uphold a purely competitive relationship with the OEM. Moreover, we demonstrate how the profitability of another OEM supplied by the NCM is influenced by the interplay between the CCM and the OEM.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"323 3","pages":"Pages 868-887"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143049758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jie Tang , Zi-Jun Li , Fan-Yong Meng , Zai-Wu Gong , Witold Pedrycz
{"title":"Biform game consensus analysis of group decision making with unconnected social network","authors":"Jie Tang , Zi-Jun Li , Fan-Yong Meng , Zai-Wu Gong , Witold Pedrycz","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.019","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.019","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In today's network era, people's decisions are susceptibly influenced by others, especially the ones they trust. This study confines to studying social network group decision making (SNGDM). Due to the mutual influence of consensus level and consensus adjustment among decision makers (DMs), this study utilizes biform game theory to propose an innovative consensus mechanism for facilitating group decision making with unconnected social networks. Specifically, in the context of a DM social network with multiple trust relationship-based connected components, we construct a multi-objective programming model to determine the consensus adjustment. Within each connected component, we employ the digraph game theory to study DMs' consensus adjustments, leveraging the directional and asymmetrical characteristics of trust-relationships. We then analyze the consensus adjustments of feasible DM coalitions using built optimization models and define the di-Myerson value. Additionally, we construct several axiomatic systems to show the rationality of consensus allocation results. We identify partial trust-relationships that increase the consensus adjustments of DMs as irrational, and design an algorithm to address them, thereby reducing the cost of consensus. Finally, we present a case study that showcases the real-world application of our new theoretical results. This is the first bi-form game consensus mechanism based on trust relationship for SNGDM.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"324 1","pages":"Pages 259-275"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143049757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On enhancing the explainability and fairness of tree ensembles","authors":"Emilio Carrizosa , Kseniia Kurishchenko , Dolores Romero Morales","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tree ensembles are one of the most powerful methodologies in Machine Learning. In this paper, we investigate how to make tree ensembles more flexible to incorporate explainability and fairness in the training process, possibly at the expense of a decrease in accuracy. While explainability helps the user understand the key features that play a role in the classification task, with fairness we ensure that the ensemble does not discriminate against a group of observations that share a sensitive attribute. We propose a Mixed Integer Linear Optimization formulation to train an ensemble of trees that, apart from minimizing the misclassification cost, controls for sparsity as well as the accuracy in the sensitive group. Our formulation is scalable in the number of observations since its number of binary decision variables is independent of the number of observations. In our numerical results, we show that for standard datasets used in the fairness literature, we can dramatically enhance the fairness of the benchmark, namely the popular Random Forest, while using only a few features, all without damaging the misclassification cost.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"323 2","pages":"Pages 599-608"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143049759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jian Zhang , Emily B. Laidlaw , Raymond A. Patterson
{"title":"Flexibility-based price discrimination in a competitive context considering consumers’ socioeconomic status","authors":"Jian Zhang , Emily B. Laidlaw , Raymond A. Patterson","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of flexibility-based price discrimination (FBPD) on the pricing and quality strategy of the adopting firm and its competitor, as well as the impact on the welfare of consumers. We assume that the inflexible consumers being targeted for price discrimination can be either high-income consumers or low-income consumers, and the high-income consumers are more sensitive to product quality. We show that depending on who the targeted inflexible consumers are, the impact of FBPD on all firms and consumers can be either negative or positive. If an FBPD is to exploit the inflexibility of low-income consumers, it will not only make the vulnerable group even more disadvantaged but also lower the firms’ incentive to produce high-quality products. On the contrary, if an FBPD is to exploit the inflexibility of high-income consumers, it will increase the firms’ incentive to produce high-quality products, and the targeted consumers will be compensated by having higher quality products. However, the firms might engage in excessive quality enhancement, leading to a situation where the competition between the firms falls into a prisoner’s dilemma. Our research results suggest that the application of FBPD could necessitate a comprehensive regulatory framework to ensure ethical implementation while safeguarding consumer welfare, particularly that of vulnerable groups.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"323 3","pages":"Pages 810-829"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142990258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Structure identification for partially linear partially concave models","authors":"Jianhui Xie , Zhewen Pan","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.014","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.014","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Partially linear partially concave models are semiparametric regression models that can capture linear and concavity-constrained nonlinear effects within one framework. A fundamental problem of this kind of model is deciding which covariates have linear effects and which covariates have strictly concave effects. Assuming that the true regression function is partially linear partially concave and sparse, we develop two structure selection procedures for classifying the covariates into linear, strictly concave, and irrelevant subsets. We show that the procedures based on penalized concavity-constrained additive regressions can correctly identify structures even if the underlying true functions are nonadditive; namely, the proposed procedures are additively faithful in a general setting. We prove that consistent structure selection is achievable when the total number of covariates and the number of concave covariates grow at polynomial rates with sample size. We introduce algorithms to implement the proposed procedures and demonstrate their performance by simulation analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"324 1","pages":"Pages 142-154"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prelim p. 2; First issue - Editorial Board","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/S0377-2217(25)00009-8","DOIUrl":"10.1016/S0377-2217(25)00009-8","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"322 1","pages":"Page ii"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143129052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Predictive distributions and the market return: The role of market illiquidity","authors":"Michael Ellington , Maria Kalli","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper evaluates the role of volatility-free stock market illiquidity proxies in forecasting monthly stock market returns. We adopt a probabilistic approach to multivariate time-series modelling using Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressions. These models flexibly capture complex joint dynamics among financial variables through data-driven regime switching. Out-of-sample forecasts maintain accuracy as the horizon increases. Adding illiquidity generates statistical improvements in out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We highlight the operational importance of market illiquidity after selecting the most appropriate forecasting model that delivers profitable strategies that outperform a range of multivariate models; as well as the historical mean.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"323 1","pages":"Pages 309-322"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142990016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Formulating human risk response in epidemic models: Exogenous vs endogenous approaches","authors":"Leah LeJeune , Navid Ghaffarzadegan , Lauren M. Childs , Omar Saucedo","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The recent pandemic emphasized the need to consider the role of human behavior in shaping epidemic dynamics. In particular, it is necessary to extend beyond the classical epidemiological structures to fully capture the interplay between the spread of disease and how people respond. Here, we focus on the challenge of incorporating change in human behavior in the form of “risk response” into compartmental epidemiological models, where humans adapt their actions in response to their perceived risk of becoming infected. The review examines 37 papers containing over 40 compartmental models, categorizing them into two fundamentally distinct classes: exogenous and endogenous approaches to modeling risk response. While in exogenous approaches, human behavior is often included using different fixed parameter values for certain time periods, endogenous approaches seek for a mechanism internal to the model to explain changes in human behavior as a function of the state of disease. We further discuss two different formulations within endogenous models as implicit versus explicit representation of information diffusion. This analysis provides insights for modelers in selecting an appropriate framework for epidemic modeling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"324 1","pages":"Pages 246-258"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142990015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sheng Dai , Natalia Kuosmanen , Timo Kuosmanen , Juuso Liesiö
{"title":"Optimal resource allocation: Convex quantile regression approach","authors":"Sheng Dai , Natalia Kuosmanen , Timo Kuosmanen , Juuso Liesiö","doi":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ejor.2025.01.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Optimal allocation of resources across sub-units in the context of centralized decision-making systems such as bank branches or supermarket chains is a classical application of operations research and management science. In this paper, we develop quantile allocation models to examine how much the output and productivity could potentially increase if the resources were efficiently allocated between units. We increase robustness to random noise and heteroscedasticity by utilizing the local estimation of multiple production functions using convex quantile regression. The quantile allocation models then rely on the estimated shadow prices instead of detailed data of units and allow the entry and exit of units. Our empirical results on Finland’s business sector show that the marginal products of labor and capital largely depart from their respective marginal costs and also reveal that the current allocation of resources is far from optimal. A large potential for productivity gains could be achieved through better allocation, especially for the reallocation of capital, keeping the current technology and resources fixed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55161,"journal":{"name":"European Journal of Operational Research","volume":"324 1","pages":"Pages 221-230"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142990017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}