Félix Salgado-Castillo, M. Barrios, J. V. Vélez Upegui
{"title":"Skew-normal distribution model for rainfall uncertainty estimation in a distributed hydrological model","authors":"Félix Salgado-Castillo, M. Barrios, J. V. Vélez Upegui","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2185149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2185149","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Despite the progress made by numerous contributions in recent decades on uncertainty in hydrological simulation, there are still knowledge gaps in estimating uncertainty sources, especially associated with precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine the precipitation uncertainty through an error model based on the skew normal distribution function and to evaluate the effect of its propagation towards the simulated flow with the TETIS distributed hydrological model in a poorly instrumented tropical Andean basin. The results show the performance of the hydrological model is more sensitive to the location of the meteorological station used than to the number of stations employed in a real case with scarce information. Implementing the Bayesian approach for the study of uncertainty in input data such as precipitation is essential for its quantification, improving the knowledge of how this source of error propagates to the results of the hydrological simulation.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45319213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An integrated water resource management approach for Lake Trasimeno, Italy","authors":"S. Di Francesco, Sara Venturi, S. Casadei","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2185150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2185150","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study aims to outline governance actions to mitigate impacts of climate change scenarios (drought) in Lake Trasimeno. A water balance model was integrated with a decision support system to evaluate water levels and water management scenarios. Water quality indices, based on Sentinel-2 images, allow the monitoring of parameters such as chlorophyll-a and turbidity. The possibility of diverting water volume from Montedoglio or Casanova reservoirs into Trasimeno Lake, according to the hypothesis of different “intervention thresholds levels” and volumes immitted, is investigated. Simulation results show that hydrometric zero represents the optimal threshold, maximizing the volume supplied and mitigating a water level decrease. An inverse correlation was observed between the lake water levels, turbidity, and chlorophyll-a concentration indices. Even if further studies to test the effects of mixing water with different physical and chemical characteristics are necessary, the proposed mitigation strategy could avoid the rapid growth of the above-mentioned quality parameters.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42425126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gabriel Anzolin, P. Chaffe, J. Vrugt, A. Aghakouchak
{"title":"Using climate information as covariates to improve nonstationary flood frequency analysis in Brazil","authors":"Gabriel Anzolin, P. Chaffe, J. Vrugt, A. Aghakouchak","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2182212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2182212","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Climatic drivers of floods have been widely used to improve nonstationary flood frequency analysis (FFA). However, the forecast ability of nonstationary FFA with out-of-sample prediction has not been comprehensively evaluated. We use 379 flood records from Brazil to assess the ability of process-informed nonstationary models for out-of-sample FFA using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Five drivers of floods are used as covariates: annual temperature, El Nino Southern Oscillation, annual rainfall, annual maximum rainfall, and annual maximum soil moisture content. Our results reveal that a nonstationary model is preferable when there is a significant correlation between flood and climate covariates in both the training period and full record. The rainfall-based covariates lead to better out-of-sample nonstationary FFA models. These findings highlight that using climate information as covariates in nonstationary FFA is a promising approach for estimating future floods and, hence, better infrastructure design, risk assessment and disaster preparedness.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48771465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Establishment of rainfall partitioning parameters for tea plantations","authors":"Chitra Shukla, Kartikeya Tiwari, S. K. Mishra","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2182211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2182211","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Tea is a popular crop in Asia and Africa, yet only limited information on tea watershed hydrology is available. This study attempts to experimentally establish the rainfall partitioning parameters (RPPs), namely throughfall (TF), stemflow (SF), and rainfall interception (IC), for a plantation of 27-year-old tea plants grown in West Bengal, India. The relative proportions of TF, SF and IC were 59–89%, 0.12%, and 10–40% with coefficients of variation of 10%, 29%, and 27%, respectively. The SF proportion, being insignificant (≤2%), can be omitted. RPP responses were also analysed against rainfall depth, intensity, and duration. All RPPs except SF showed an exponential decay with rainfall depth. The fitted/validated models were evaluated for goodness of fit using coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as error metrics. These results have pragmatic significance in tea watershed hydrology.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45482693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Maziyar Bahrami, N. Talebbeydokhti, G. Rakhshandehroo, M. Nikoo, J. Adamowski
{"title":"A fusion-based data assimilation framework for runoff prediction considering multiple sources of precipitation","authors":"Maziyar Bahrami, N. Talebbeydokhti, G. Rakhshandehroo, M. Nikoo, J. Adamowski","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2180375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2180375","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A fusion-based framework, in which a particle filter Markov chain Monte Carlo (PFMCMC) data assimilation method was coupled with the hydrological Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), was developed to improve the model’s capacity to predict one-day-ahead runoff. A case study was applied where mean daily precipitation from multiple sources served as forcing data in the data assimilation procedure, while ground station and multiple bias-corrected satellite-based precipitation datasets served as precipitation input datasets. The model training period used six years (2002–2007) of data to determine optimal weights through a genetic algorithm optimization model, while two years (2008–2009) were used to test the model. The proposed framework, applied to a real case study, improved SAC-SMA runoff prediction accuracy by incorporating precipitation datasets from multiple sources in the data assimilation procedure. On average, the PFMCMC-based data assimilation procedure led to a 13.7% improvement in SAC-SMA model performance metrics (NSE, MAB, RMSE, RMSRE, RMRE).","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48501743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Future hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin and its impact on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam water resource system: a review","authors":"Kasye Shitu Mulat, Adibar Hymiro Tegegne","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2179878","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2179878","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This review paper focuses on the question of what will happen to the future water resource system of Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia based on the projected hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin. For this, the hydrological extremes, the baseline hydrological trends, and projected hydrological extremes of the Upper Blue Nile River basin were reviewed from various published and unpublished sources. Changes in the future hydrology of the Upper Blue Nile River basin due to climate change or any other natural or manmade modification of the river basin deserve concerted attention in the future water resources system of the Grand Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia, because the water resources of the dam mainly depend on the water potential nature of the Upper Blue Nile River basin.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42924629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Rainfall regimes in Sri Lanka","authors":"B. Basnayake","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2179403","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2179403","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Understanding spatio-temporal variation in rainfall is important to water resources planning and management activities. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and harmonic analysis are considered state-of-the-art techniques for analysing rainfall variability. This study considered monthly rainfall data from 18 principal stations and 21 secondary stations in Sri Lanka. K-means clustering was applied for identifying rainfall regimes. Rotated EOF analysis provided four key factors related to climate seasons of which the first two factors were more prominent, explaining more than 80% of the total variance. Harmonic analysis showed that northeastern and southwestern parts of the country possess strong annual and semi-annual variation, respectively explaining 90% of the total variance. Both EOF and harmonic analysis can be considered effective tools for identifying rainfall characteristics. However, harmonic analysis results successfully identified seven well-defined rainfall regime characteristics, which could be explained using tendency in data, amplitude, phase angle, and seasonal contribution.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49649085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Changes in rain-on-snow events in mountain catchments in the rain–snow transition zone","authors":"Ondrej Hotovy, Ondrej Nedelcev, Michal Jeníček","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2177544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2177544","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A shift from snowfall to rain affecting snow storage is expected in future. Consequently, changes in rain-on-snow (ROS) events may occur. We evaluated the frequency and trends in ROS events and their runoff responses at different elevations related to changes in climate variables. We selected 40 central European mountain catchments located in the rain–snow transition zone, and used a conceptual catchment model to simulate runoff components for the period 1965–2019. The results showed large temporal and spatial differences in ROS events and their respective runoff responses across individual study catchments and elevations, with primarily an ROS increase at highest elevations and a decrease at lower elevations during spring. ROS events contributed 3–32% to the total seasonal direct runoff. The detected trends reflect changes in climate and snow variables, with an increase in air temperature resulting in the decrease in snowfall fraction and shorter snow cover period.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48689543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling flood awareness in floodplain dynamics","authors":"M. Mazzoleni, L. Brandimarte","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2177543","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2177543","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Societal awareness is a crucial factor driving floodplain dynamics. When modelling these dynamics, flood awareness decay is considered constant. However, empirical studies have shown that the intensity of an experienced event can influence awareness decay. Here we explore and model the influence of variable flood awareness decay on flood losses for two types of societies that cope with flooding by adopting structural (techno society) or nonstructural (green society) protection measures. We modified an established socio-hydrological model and performed three synthetic experiments with multiple scenarios of flood awareness decay, flood intensity, and frequency. We found that, when modelling techno societies, assuming a constant awareness decay leads to underestimating societal flood awareness after severe flood events. In contrast, overestimation of flood awareness occurs when using constant awareness decay for green societies. This might lead to overestimating the effects of human–flood dynamics, such as the levee effect and adaptation effects.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48652244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Theresa C. van Hateren, Harro J. Jongen, Hadeel Al-Zawaidah, J. Beemster, Judith Boekee, L. Bogerd, Sijia Gao, Christin Kannen, Ilja van Meerveld, S. D. de Lange, Felicia Linke, R. B. Pinto, Janneke O. E. Remmers, J. Ruijsch, S. R. Rusli, Roeland C. van de Vijsel, Jerom P. M. Aerts, Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, Markus Anys, Sara Blanco Ramírez, T. V. van Emmerik, L. Gallitelli, Gabriela chiquito Gesualdo, Wendy Gonzalez Otero, Sarah Hanus, Zixiao He, Svenja Hoffmeister, R. Imhoff, Tim Kerlin, Sumit M. Meshram, Judith Meyer, Aline Meyer Oliveira, Andreas C.T. Müller, R. Nijzink, Mirjam Scheller, L. Schreyers, D. Sehgal, P. Tasseron, A. Teuling, M. Trevisson, Kryss Waldschläger, Bas Walraven, C. Wannasin, J. Wienhöfer, Marianne Zander, Shulin Zhang, Jingwei Zhou, Judith Y. Zomer, B. Zwartendijk
{"title":"Where should hydrology go? An early-career perspective on the next IAHS Scientific Decade: 2023–2032","authors":"Theresa C. van Hateren, Harro J. Jongen, Hadeel Al-Zawaidah, J. Beemster, Judith Boekee, L. Bogerd, Sijia Gao, Christin Kannen, Ilja van Meerveld, S. D. de Lange, Felicia Linke, R. B. Pinto, Janneke O. E. Remmers, J. Ruijsch, S. R. Rusli, Roeland C. van de Vijsel, Jerom P. M. Aerts, Sehouevi Mawuton David Agoungbome, Markus Anys, Sara Blanco Ramírez, T. V. van Emmerik, L. Gallitelli, Gabriela chiquito Gesualdo, Wendy Gonzalez Otero, Sarah Hanus, Zixiao He, Svenja Hoffmeister, R. Imhoff, Tim Kerlin, Sumit M. Meshram, Judith Meyer, Aline Meyer Oliveira, Andreas C.T. Müller, R. Nijzink, Mirjam Scheller, L. Schreyers, D. Sehgal, P. Tasseron, A. Teuling, M. Trevisson, Kryss Waldschläger, Bas Walraven, C. Wannasin, J. Wienhöfer, Marianne Zander, Shulin Zhang, Jingwei Zhou, Judith Y. Zomer, B. Zwartendijk","doi":"10.1080/02626667.2023.2170754","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2023.2170754","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper shares an early-career perspective on potential themes for the upcoming International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Scientific Decade (SD). This opinion paper synthesizes six discussion sessions in western Europe identifying three themes that all offer a different perspective on the hydrological threats the world faces and could serve to direct the broader hydrological community: “Tipping points and thresholds in hydrology,” “Intensification of the water cycle,” and “Water services under pressure.” Additionally, four trends were distinguished concerning the way in which hydrological research is conducted: big data, bridging science and practice, open science, and inter- and multidisciplinarity. These themes and trends will provide valuable input for future discussions on the theme for the next IAHS SD. We encourage other early-career scientists to voice their opinion by organizing their own discussion sessions and commenting on this paper to make this initiative grow from a regional initiative to a global movement.","PeriodicalId":55042,"journal":{"name":"Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2023-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45316915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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