Modelling flood awareness in floodplain dynamics

IF 2.8 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI:10.1080/02626667.2023.2177543

M. Mazzoleni, L. Brandimarte

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT Societal awareness is a crucial factor driving floodplain dynamics. When modelling these dynamics, flood awareness decay is considered constant. However, empirical studies have shown that the intensity of an experienced event can influence awareness decay. Here we explore and model the influence of variable flood awareness decay on flood losses for two types of societies that cope with flooding by adopting structural (techno society) or nonstructural (green society) protection measures. We modified an established socio-hydrological model and performed three synthetic experiments with multiple scenarios of flood awareness decay, flood intensity, and frequency. We found that, when modelling techno societies, assuming a constant awareness decay leads to underestimating societal flood awareness after severe flood events. In contrast, overestimation of flood awareness occurs when using constant awareness decay for green societies. This might lead to overestimating the effects of human–flood dynamics, such as the levee effect and adaptation effects.

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漫滩动力学中洪水意识的建模

摘要社会意识是驱动洪泛平原动态的关键因素。在对这些动态进行建模时，洪水意识衰减被认为是恒定的。然而，实证研究表明，经历的事件的强度会影响意识衰退。在这里，我们探索并模拟了通过采取结构性（技术社会）或非结构性（绿色社会）保护措施来应对洪水的两种社会的可变洪水意识衰退对洪水损失的影响。我们修改了一个已建立的社会水文模型，并对洪水意识衰退、洪水强度和频率的多个场景进行了三次综合实验。我们发现，在对技术社会进行建模时，假设意识持续衰退会导致低估严重洪水事件后的社会洪水意识。相比之下，当使用绿色社会的持续意识衰退时，就会高估洪水意识。这可能会导致高估人类-洪水动力学的影响，如堤坝效应和适应效应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques 环境科学-水资源

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

11.40%

发文量

144

审稿时长

9.8 months

期刊介绍： Hydrological Sciences Journal is an international journal focused on hydrology and the relationship of water to atmospheric processes and climate. Hydrological Sciences Journal is the official journal of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). Hydrological Sciences Journal aims to provide a forum for original papers and for the exchange of information and views on significant developments in hydrology worldwide on subjects including: Hydrological cycle and processes Surface water Groundwater Water resource systems and management Geographical factors Earth and atmospheric processes Hydrological extremes and their impact Hydrological Sciences Journal offers a variety of formats for paper submission, including original articles, scientific notes, discussions, and rapid communications.