Wenhang Jiang, Jiu-fu Liu, Anbang Peng, Guodong Liu, Rong Zhang
{"title":"Quantifying the contribution of uncertainty sources of artificial neural network models using ANOVA for reservoir power generation","authors":"Wenhang Jiang, Jiu-fu Liu, Anbang Peng, Guodong Liu, Rong Zhang","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.052","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 There are many sources of uncertainty in reservoir operation. The presence of these uncertainties might lead to operation risks, which directly affect the comprehensive benefit of reservoirs. This study developed a simple framework to quantify the uncertainty contribution arising from the inputs, model structures, model parameters, and their interaction in the reservoirs. We established a deterministic reservoir operations model with the intention of maximizing power generation, and the scheduling results with the inputs and optimal output datasets were used for data-driven models – artificial neural networks (ANNs). The time period, inflow, storage, and inflow in the last period were chosen as input, integrating with ANN models of different structures and parameters, to produce an ensemble of 10-day forecasts of power generation. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) method was applied to quantify the contribution of the uncertainty sources. The results demonstrated that the inputs were the predominating source of uncertainty in the reservoir operation, especially from May to October. In addition, the uncertainty caused by the interactions between the three sources of uncertainty was more considerable than that of the model structure or parameter in November–April, and the uncertainty contributions of the model structure or parameter were relatively marginal.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47133399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Peng Zhang, Bin Wang, Yishu Wang, Y. Pang, Chengchun Shi, Rongrong Xie
{"title":"Causes of continuous and short-term hypoxia in rivers entering the sea: a case of Minjiang River in Fujian Province","authors":"Peng Zhang, Bin Wang, Yishu Wang, Y. Pang, Chengchun Shi, Rongrong Xie","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.095","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In the last 10 years, the Minjiang River, which is the longest river in the Fujian Province in Southeast China, has been facing a downward trend of dissolved oxygen (DO) and a frequent occurrence of hypoxia. In this study, the development of the continuous and short-term presence of low DO was investigated by using the water age concept and average DO consumption concept based on a three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code in the Minjiang River. The results revealed that the spatial distribution of DO was affected by temperature, runoff, pollution emission, tidal advection, and hypoxic water discharge from the reservoir bottom. The continuous low DO in the water of the North Channel occurred frequently when the enough pollutants were aerobically decomposed faster than the rate of oxygen reaeration during the high temperature and low river discharge period. In addition, the water age and reaeration time decreased with a rapid increase in the water flow from the Shuikou dam when the reservoir capacity was released via drainage. The results of this study provide scientific insights on the mechanism involved in the occurrence of hypoxia and suggest countermeasures for addressing hypoxic problems in estuaries.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43769684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Rad, Dai Junfeng, Xu Jingxuan, Li Zitao, Pan Linyan, Zepeng Wan, Liao-Fan Lin
{"title":"Lijiang flood characteristics and implication of karst storage through Muskingum flood routing via HEC-HMS, S. China","authors":"S. Rad, Dai Junfeng, Xu Jingxuan, Li Zitao, Pan Linyan, Zepeng Wan, Liao-Fan Lin","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.060","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We analyzed the characteristics of three main karstic/non-karst reaches of the Lijiang River in south China to uncover the causes behind different flood behaviors by providing a better understanding of the flood formation process. Having 63 years of rainfall-runoff data and applying the Hydrologic Engineering Canter's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) flood forecasting model, the geo/hydrological features were investigated. The available reservoir capacity of karts (ARCK) was included in the model through soil moisture accounting loss data to assess the impact of this variable. In particular, the expected instantaneous peak discharge rates and times were found largely imbalanced with generated unit hydrographs. Moreover, there were significant gaps among the floods’ features in different subbasins in terms of required peak modifications (i.e., two to four times bigger for midstream and upstream subbasins, respectively), which were mainly associated with the unique karst structure and the initial condition due to various ARCK in rainy/dry seasons. Besides, notable dissimilarities between the wedge and prism storage volumes and the hydrograph's wave traveling/receding time were observed owing to the geomorphological conditions. Although the contribution rates of drivers in karst flood formation cannot be quantitatively modeled, however, based on our results the ARCK emerged to play a substantial role on the forecasted results compared.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43328275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Improvement of springtime streamflow prediction using a snow hydrology model aided with USDA SNOTEL and in-situ snowpit observations","authors":"D. Kang, Kyung-Seon Lee, Edward J. Kim","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.180","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.180","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Estimating the streamflow driven by snowmelt in rugged mountain watersheds is difficult. Challenges are associated with the limited observations of hydrologic and meteorological datasets and inadequate implementation of the snow hydrology models. This study aims to improve streamflow prediction during the snowmelt season using a snow hydrology model aided by field observations. When the point-based weather forcing data and in-situ snowpit measurements exist in or near a small-scale (2–3 km2) watershed, the hydrologic model demonstrated an improved streamflow prediction during the snowmelt period. A snow hydrology model was applied to the Senator Beck Basin (SBB) in Colorado to improve the streamflow prediction. A temperature index method was implemented in the hydrological model to accommodate the snowmelt routine, which releases water as a multiplication factor for a grid temperature surplus above the melting point. The temperature index was adjusted using in-situ snowpit observations collected in the SBB by the NASA SnowEx Year-1 campaign in February 2017. Using the determined temperature index and weather forcing data from the nearby USDA snow observation telemetry station, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of the simulated streamflow was elucidated with a value of 0.88 against the observed streamflow during April 1–22, 2017.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46837535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Nõges, S. Vilbaste, M. J. McCarthy, Marju Tamm, P. Nõges
{"title":"Long-term data reflect nitrogen pollution in Estonian rivers","authors":"T. Nõges, S. Vilbaste, M. J. McCarthy, Marju Tamm, P. Nõges","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.057","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We analysed long-term (1992–2020) changes in fertiliser use, wastewater treatment, and river water nutrient status in Estonia (N-E Europe) in the context of changing socio-economic situations and legislation. We hypothesised that more precise regulation of fertiliser usage and improved wastewater treatment are reflected as declining riverine nutrient concentrations, and that the largest relative improvements occurred in catchments with initially high proportions of point source loading. We used data on population and livestock densities, fertiliser use, and wastewater treatment from the Statistics Estonia database and riverine nutrient concentrations from the environmental monitoring database. We clustered the rivers by their catchment properties and analysed trends and step changes in their nutrient status. Point source nutrient loading reductions explained most of the observed decline in riverine nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, whereas the application of mineral fertilisers has increased, hindering efforts to reach water quality and nutrient load targets set by the EU Water Framework Directive and the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Highest nitrogen concentrations and strongest increasing trends were found in rivers within the nitrate vulnerable zone, indicating violation of the EU Nitrates Directive. To comply with these directives, resource managers must address non-point source nutrient loading from river watersheds.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47779045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ali A. Assani, Ayoub Zeroual, C. Kinnard, Alexandre Roy
{"title":"Spatial–temporal variability of seasonal daily minimum flows in southern Quebec: synthesis on the impacts of climate, agriculture and wetlands","authors":"Ali A. Assani, Ayoub Zeroual, C. Kinnard, Alexandre Roy","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.070","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study compares the impacts of climate, agriculture and wetlands on the spatio-temporal variability of seasonal daily minimum flows during the period 1930–2019 in 17 watersheds of southern Quebec (Canada). In terms of spatial variability, correlation analysis revealed that seasonal daily minimum flows were mainly negatively correlated with the agricultural surface area in watersheds in spring, summer and fall. In winter, these flows were positively correlated with the wetland surface area and March temperatures but negatively correlated with snowfall. During all four seasons, spatial variability was characterized by higher daily minimum flow values on the north shore (smaller agricultural surface area and larger wetland surface area) than those on the south shore. As for temporal variability, the application of six tests of the long-term trend analysis showed that most agricultural watersheds are characterized by a significant increase in flows during the four seasons due to the reduction in agricultural area, thus favoring water infiltration, and increased rainfall in summer and fall. On the other hand, the reduction in the snowfall resulted in a reduction in summer daily minimum flows observed in several less agricultural watersheds.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42936359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Spatially coherent statistical simulation of widespread flooding events under climate change","authors":"Adam Griffin, A. Kay, E. Stewart, P. Sayers","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.069","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Simulating rare widespread hydrological events can be difficult even with the use of modelled data such as the UKCP18 12 km regional climate projections. To generate larger event sets for application in catastrophe modelling, two statistical approaches are highlighted and applied to widespread GB-generated flooding events using a grid-based hydrological model and UKCP18 regional projections. An Empirical Copula method was applied on a national scale, generating over 600,000 events across two time-slices (1980–2010 and 2050–2080). This was compared to model-generated events and showed good matching across time-slices and ensemble members, although lacked some ability to describe the least-rare events. The Empirical Copula was also compared to an implementation of a conditional exceedance model. This model was much more computationally intensive so was restricted to Northwest England but offered the ability to be tuned more finely through choices of marginal distributions. Analysing over 11,000 events, it also matched well with the Empirical Copula and model-generated events but under-represented the smallest events. Both approaches require a broad dataset to draw from but showed reasonable efficacy. For simple statistics, the Empirical Copula shows the potential to be a powerful tool in exploring spatial structure over large regions or at a fine spatial resolution.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43619850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Future runoff assessment under climate change and land-cover alteration scenarios: a case study of the Zayandeh-Roud dam upstream watershed","authors":"A. Ahmadi, J. Jalali, Ali Mohammadpour","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.056","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In this study, hydrological responses to climate change and land-cover alteration on future runoff in the Zayandeh-Roud dam upstream watershed were assessed. In this regard, land-use maps in 1996, 2008, 2018, and 2033 were generated using Landsat time-series (TM and OLI), Support-Vector Machine (SVM), and the CA-Markov chain model, for analysing the effects of land-cover alteration on future runoff. Second, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario time-series under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were downscaled to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future streamflow. Eventually, the HEC-HMS model was calibrated (1996–2018) for evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use map changes. Results showed that the percentage of the urban area and farmland in 2033 compared to 2018 were expected to grow by 0.1 and 2.39% upstream of the Eskandari station and 0.05 and 0.71% upstream of the Ghale-Shahrokh station, respectively, although the percentage of the barren area was expected to remain almost unchanged in both regions. The future stream flow of Eskandari and Ghale-Shahrokh stations in 2033 was expected to decrease by 57–63 MCM (for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and 295–403 MCM, respectively, where 68–72% and 79–86% were expected to decrease under climate change scenarios and remains are due to land-cover alteration.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45930396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Post-processing climate projections of precipitation for the Po river basin: will Italy's North become water-constrained?","authors":"Oleksiy Boyko, P. Reggiani, E. Todini","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.063","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Surface and groundwater resource availability depends on precipitation patterns. Climatic change may alter not only future annual totals of precipitation but also its temporal distribution. In regions depending strongly on snow accumulation for steady water supply, this can lead to water constraints. We process climatic projections of precipitation from 19 models of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 5 for the Po river, Italy. The study area hosts Italy's most important lakes and reservoirs and is inhabited by 19 million people. The river basin is also known for its productive areas of irrigated agriculture. We apply a Bayesian processor of uncertainty, which we calibrate on a comprehensive set of high-resolution gridded observations. The processor outputs predictive densities of precipitation for selected prognostic time windows. These densities can be used in conjunction with an utility function to estimate potential losses and/or evaluate the benefits of mitigating actions. For the study area, annual precipitation will not change notably in the future for both an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario. The temporal distribution of precipitation will become affected. These potential changes result in considerable strain on storage capacity and water flows needed to satisfy irrigation demand as well as hydroelectric and thermal energy production.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48899414","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Influence of reservoir impoundment on rainfall erosivity in the Three Gorges Reservoir region of China","authors":"Guang-Zhi Jiang, Jiaorong Lv, Xiu-bin He, Y. Bao","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.038","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 New dammed reservoirs are expected to have a significant effect on the regional hydrocycle, but the detailed patterns may not be well understood. Regional climate change is likely to cause soil erosion uncertainty by affecting rainfall erosivity. In the present study, local precipitation and rainfall erosivity were investigated to determine the impounding influence of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Daily erosive precipitation, from 1980 to 2020, was categorized into four intensity levels (light, moderate, heavy, and very heavy), as well as extreme rainfall, to understand their contribution to erosivity. It was found that the impoundment significantly affected local precipitation, with both heavy precipitation and the relative erosivity showing a substantial declining trend (Sen's slope = 2.141, p < 0.05). The Mann–Kendall test indicated an abrupt change point around the year 2002, evidencing the effect of the reservoir impoundment (since 2003). Reservoir impoundment redistributed the intensity levels of erosive precipitation, leading to a 24.3% decrease in the erosivity of heavy precipitation and an 8.2% increase in the moderate category. The unimodal distribution of monthly precipitation was altered to a bimodal distribution with peaks in July and September, resulting in a longer but lower-risky erosion period of high concern. The fluctuations of Rx1day and Rx5day were obviously flattered after impoundment, with a 54.2% peak reduction in relative erosivity on average. Results indicated that heavy rainfall (including extreme rainfall) was reduced, and annual precipitation and erosivity both had a more even seasonal distribution following reservoir impoundment.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2022-10-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67904997","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}