波河流域降水的后处理气候预测:意大利北部会缺水吗?

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 Environmental Science
Oleksiy Boyko, P. Reggiani, E. Todini
{"title":"波河流域降水的后处理气候预测:意大利北部会缺水吗?","authors":"Oleksiy Boyko, P. Reggiani, E. Todini","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.063","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Surface and groundwater resource availability depends on precipitation patterns. Climatic change may alter not only future annual totals of precipitation but also its temporal distribution. In regions depending strongly on snow accumulation for steady water supply, this can lead to water constraints. We process climatic projections of precipitation from 19 models of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 5 for the Po river, Italy. The study area hosts Italy's most important lakes and reservoirs and is inhabited by 19 million people. The river basin is also known for its productive areas of irrigated agriculture. We apply a Bayesian processor of uncertainty, which we calibrate on a comprehensive set of high-resolution gridded observations. The processor outputs predictive densities of precipitation for selected prognostic time windows. These densities can be used in conjunction with an utility function to estimate potential losses and/or evaluate the benefits of mitigating actions. For the study area, annual precipitation will not change notably in the future for both an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario. The temporal distribution of precipitation will become affected. These potential changes result in considerable strain on storage capacity and water flows needed to satisfy irrigation demand as well as hydroelectric and thermal energy production.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Post-processing climate projections of precipitation for the Po river basin: will Italy's North become water-constrained?\",\"authors\":\"Oleksiy Boyko, P. Reggiani, E. Todini\",\"doi\":\"10.2166/nh.2022.063\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Surface and groundwater resource availability depends on precipitation patterns. Climatic change may alter not only future annual totals of precipitation but also its temporal distribution. In regions depending strongly on snow accumulation for steady water supply, this can lead to water constraints. We process climatic projections of precipitation from 19 models of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 5 for the Po river, Italy. The study area hosts Italy's most important lakes and reservoirs and is inhabited by 19 million people. The river basin is also known for its productive areas of irrigated agriculture. We apply a Bayesian processor of uncertainty, which we calibrate on a comprehensive set of high-resolution gridded observations. The processor outputs predictive densities of precipitation for selected prognostic time windows. These densities can be used in conjunction with an utility function to estimate potential losses and/or evaluate the benefits of mitigating actions. For the study area, annual precipitation will not change notably in the future for both an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario. The temporal distribution of precipitation will become affected. These potential changes result in considerable strain on storage capacity and water flows needed to satisfy irrigation demand as well as hydroelectric and thermal energy production.\",\"PeriodicalId\":55040,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Hydrology Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-10-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Hydrology Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.063\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Environmental Science\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology Research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.063","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Environmental Science","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2

摘要

地表和地下水资源的可用性取决于降水模式。气候变化不仅会改变未来的年降水量,还会改变其时间分布。在高度依赖积雪稳定供水的地区,这可能导致水资源限制。我们处理了意大利波河气候模式比较项目5的19个模式的降水气候预估。研究区拥有意大利最重要的湖泊和水库,居住着1900万人口。该流域也因其灌溉农业的生产区而闻名。我们应用贝叶斯不确定性处理器,我们在一组全面的高分辨率网格观测数据上进行校准。处理器为选定的预测时间窗口输出降水的预测密度。这些密度可与效用函数结合使用,以估计潜在损失和/或评估缓解措施的效益。在乐观和悲观两种情景下,研究区未来年降水量都不会发生显著变化。降水的时间分布将受到影响。这些潜在的变化对满足灌溉需求以及水电和热能生产所需的储存能力和水流量造成相当大的压力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Post-processing climate projections of precipitation for the Po river basin: will Italy's North become water-constrained?
Surface and groundwater resource availability depends on precipitation patterns. Climatic change may alter not only future annual totals of precipitation but also its temporal distribution. In regions depending strongly on snow accumulation for steady water supply, this can lead to water constraints. We process climatic projections of precipitation from 19 models of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project 5 for the Po river, Italy. The study area hosts Italy's most important lakes and reservoirs and is inhabited by 19 million people. The river basin is also known for its productive areas of irrigated agriculture. We apply a Bayesian processor of uncertainty, which we calibrate on a comprehensive set of high-resolution gridded observations. The processor outputs predictive densities of precipitation for selected prognostic time windows. These densities can be used in conjunction with an utility function to estimate potential losses and/or evaluate the benefits of mitigating actions. For the study area, annual precipitation will not change notably in the future for both an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario. The temporal distribution of precipitation will become affected. These potential changes result in considerable strain on storage capacity and water flows needed to satisfy irrigation demand as well as hydroelectric and thermal energy production.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Hydrology Research
Hydrology Research Environmental Science-Water Science and Technology
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
7.40%
发文量
70
审稿时长
17 weeks
期刊介绍: Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信