{"title":"Future runoff assessment under climate change and land-cover alteration scenarios: a case study of the Zayandeh-Roud dam upstream watershed","authors":"A. Ahmadi, J. Jalali, Ali Mohammadpour","doi":"10.2166/nh.2022.056","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n In this study, hydrological responses to climate change and land-cover alteration on future runoff in the Zayandeh-Roud dam upstream watershed were assessed. In this regard, land-use maps in 1996, 2008, 2018, and 2033 were generated using Landsat time-series (TM and OLI), Support-Vector Machine (SVM), and the CA-Markov chain model, for analysing the effects of land-cover alteration on future runoff. Second, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario time-series under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were downscaled to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future streamflow. Eventually, the HEC-HMS model was calibrated (1996–2018) for evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use map changes. Results showed that the percentage of the urban area and farmland in 2033 compared to 2018 were expected to grow by 0.1 and 2.39% upstream of the Eskandari station and 0.05 and 0.71% upstream of the Ghale-Shahrokh station, respectively, although the percentage of the barren area was expected to remain almost unchanged in both regions. The future stream flow of Eskandari and Ghale-Shahrokh stations in 2033 was expected to decrease by 57–63 MCM (for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and 295–403 MCM, respectively, where 68–72% and 79–86% were expected to decrease under climate change scenarios and remains are due to land-cover alteration.","PeriodicalId":55040,"journal":{"name":"Hydrology Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hydrology Research","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.056","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Environmental Science","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
In this study, hydrological responses to climate change and land-cover alteration on future runoff in the Zayandeh-Roud dam upstream watershed were assessed. In this regard, land-use maps in 1996, 2008, 2018, and 2033 were generated using Landsat time-series (TM and OLI), Support-Vector Machine (SVM), and the CA-Markov chain model, for analysing the effects of land-cover alteration on future runoff. Second, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario time-series under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were downscaled to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future streamflow. Eventually, the HEC-HMS model was calibrated (1996–2018) for evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use map changes. Results showed that the percentage of the urban area and farmland in 2033 compared to 2018 were expected to grow by 0.1 and 2.39% upstream of the Eskandari station and 0.05 and 0.71% upstream of the Ghale-Shahrokh station, respectively, although the percentage of the barren area was expected to remain almost unchanged in both regions. The future stream flow of Eskandari and Ghale-Shahrokh stations in 2033 was expected to decrease by 57–63 MCM (for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and 295–403 MCM, respectively, where 68–72% and 79–86% were expected to decrease under climate change scenarios and remains are due to land-cover alteration.
期刊介绍:
Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.