{"title":"Mitigating propensity score model misspecification with multiply robust weights when leveraging external data.","authors":"Jinmei Chen, Guoyou Qin, Yongfu Yu","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2547593","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2547593","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Propensity score-integrated Bayesian dynamic borrowing methods offer an effective approach for covariate adjustment when using external data to augment randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, identifying the correct propensity score model can be challenging due to unknown treatment selection processes, potentially leading to model misspecification and biased estimates. To improve robustness to model misspecification, we propose an innovative Bayesian inference procedure that incorporates multiply robust weights into the construction of informative power priors. Specifically, we specify a set of candidate propensity score models to derive multiply robust weights, balancing covariates between the current data and external data. The weighted external data is then incorporated into the analysis using a Bayesian power prior method. We further extend this approach to leverage multiple external datasets. Simulation studies indicate that when the set of postulated propensity score models include a correctly specified model, the proposed method achieves desirable operating characteristics, including low bias, low root mean squared error (RMSE), controlled type I error rate at the predetermined nominal level, and high statistical power. This method also provides a robust strategy for researchers who may have a difficult time developing or selecting a single propensity score model.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1051-1064"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144979522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Characterization of a credibility index.","authors":"Piero Quatto, Enrico Ripamonti, Donata Marasini","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2456170","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2456170","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In recent years, the role of the <i>p</i>-value in applied research has been heavily scrutinized. Several new proposals have been put forward from a Bayesian viewpoint, including the analysis of credibility. By using the reverse Bayes theorem, and reasoning in terms of subverting the significance or the non-significance denoted by the <i>p</i>-value, this analysis provides the credibility, in a Bayesian sense, of an experimental result. We discuss a normalized indicator of credibility, namely <math><mi>C</mi></math>, a variant of the index <math><mover><mi>C</mi><mo>˜</mo></mover></math> (Quatto et al. J. Biopharm. Stat. 32, 308-329, 2022). This can be used to assess the degree of credibility of experimental results and can also be compared with a fixed threshold. The index is extended to the case of one-sided hypotheses. A simulation study is conducted to empirically assess the behavior of the index <math><mi>C</mi></math>. Two illustrative examples in the contexts of pharmacotherapy for COVID-19 and heart failure are presented. We then propose adopting the credibility index for meta-analyses, in which it can provide a suitable diagnostic value for modeling fixed and random effects.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"854-870"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143384139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"On F<sub>β</sub> -score for medical diagnostics tests of binary diseases: proposing new measures of accuracy.","authors":"Marwan Alsharman, Hani Samawi, Jing Kersey, Divine Wanduku","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2469866","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2469866","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Accurate differentiation between health states - diseased or non-diseased - is essential in clinical diagnostics. Optimal cut-off points, or thresholds used to classify test results, are crucial for precise diagnoses. This work introduces the Harmonic Mean of F-score and inverse F-score (<i>HF</i>), a novel metric for a balanced assessment of diagnostic accuracy. <i>HF</i> integrates Specificity (<i>Sp</i>) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) into the Negative F-score (<i>NF</i><sub><i>γ</i></sub>), ensuring a comprehensive evaluation of true negatives and negative test reliability. Prioritizing both true positives and true negatives, <i>HF</i> was used in optimal cut-off point estimation under binary disease classification. Simulation results revealed that the <i>HF</i> measure performed well, often surpassing established methods in specific settings. The <i>HF</i> measure and cut-off point selection criterion were applied to real-life data, showcasing its ability to provide a balanced evaluation of diagnostic accuracy. The <i>HF</i> measure frequently outperformed traditional metrics. The <i>HF</i> metric's flexibility, allowing parameter adjustments to accommodate diverse scenarios, enables researchers and clinicians to tailor its emphasis on specific aspects of diagnostic performance depending on the context.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"900-926"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143525256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Silvia Noirjean, Daniele Bottigliengo, Elisa Cinconze, Ali Charkhi, Toufik Zahaf, Fan Li, Andrea Callegaro
{"title":"Implementation of the ICH E9 (R1) addendum in vaccine efficacy studies: the hypothetical and principal stratum strategies.","authors":"Silvia Noirjean, Daniele Bottigliengo, Elisa Cinconze, Ali Charkhi, Toufik Zahaf, Fan Li, Andrea Callegaro","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2547588","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2547588","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Over the past decades, the primary interest in vaccine efficacy evaluation has mostly been on the effect observed in trial participants complying with the protocol requirements (per protocol analysis). The ICH E9 (R1) addendum provides a structured framework to formulate the clinical questions of interest and formalize them as estimands. In this paper, the estimand framework is retrospectively implemented in a human papillomavirus (HPV) phase 3 trial, where the vaccine efficacy was originally estimated on the per protocol set. We focus on two strategies for dealing with the presence of intercurrent events: the hypothetical and the principal stratum strategies. We address the interpretation of these two estimands, their estimation as well as articulation of the underlying identifiability assumptions. Finally, we leverage the results of the HPV application to formulate general considerations regarding the implementation of the ICH E9 (R1) addendum in vaccine efficacy studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"1017-1034"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145214505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yeongjin Gwon, Ming-Hui Chen, May Mo, Xun Jiang, H Amy Xia, Joseph G Ibrahim
{"title":"Bayesian network meta-regression for aggregate ordinal outcomes with imprecise categories.","authors":"Yeongjin Gwon, Ming-Hui Chen, May Mo, Xun Jiang, H Amy Xia, Joseph G Ibrahim","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2547585","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2547585","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Comparing emerging treatment options is often challenging because of the sparseness of direct comparisons from head-to-head trials and inconsistencies in outcome measures among published placebo-controlled trials for each treatment. One potential solution is to aggregate the different outcome measures into a single ordinal response variable for consistent evaluation. The ordinal response variable will inevitably contain unknown response categories because they cannot be directly derived from published data in the literature. In this paper, we propose a statistical methodology to overcome such a common but unresolved issue in the context of network meta-regression for aggregate ordinal outcomes. Specifically, we introduce unobserved latent counts and model these counts within a Bayesian framework. The proposed approach includes several existing models as special cases and also allows us to conduct a proper statistical analysis in the presence of trials with certain missing categories. We then develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm to carry out Bayesian computation. Variations of the deviance information criterion and widely applicable information criterion are used for the assessment of goodness-of-fit under different distributions of the latent counts. A case study demonstrating the usefulness of the proposed methodology is conducted using aggregate ordinal outcome data from 18 clinical trials in treating Crohn's Disease.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"995-1016"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145338245","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Improved confidence estimation for the binomial proportion with applications to clinical studies.","authors":"Mo Yang, Xiaoning Kang, Borek Puza","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2023.2183506","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2023.2183506","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we establish a frequentist framework that incorporates all confidence sets with guaranteed frequentist coverage probability for the binomial proportion, where different confidence sets are completely characterized by their tail functions. Based on measures of precision in the form of interval length, probability of false coverage, and a new evaluation criterion utilizing prior information, we construct the optimal confidence set for the binomial proportion. The newly proposed methodology is applied to clinical studies. It is shown that confidence intervals obtained via the tail functions are often better than prevailing confidence intervals in view of precision.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"717-731"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9492044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Bayesian Hierarchy model for population pharmacokinetics of amikacin in Japanese clinical population.","authors":"Ziyue Zhou, Guodong Li, Zhaosi Xu, Liping Zhu","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2444222","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2444222","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Amikacin is one of the aminoglycosides with a narrow therapeutic window, significant dose-response relationship, and substantial interindividual pharmacokinetics (PK) variability, thus requiring an individualized dosing regimen. In this paper, a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was developed based on the known the PK parameters of amikacin obtained from a nonlinear mixed-effects model established for the Japanese population, and the weights were assigned to the priori and posteriori parts before two-dimensional Gibbs sampling, and simulations were performed using the data of 24 elderly patients with respiratory tract infections in Japan, after analyzing the predicted values and the range between effective trough concentrations (<math><mrow><msub><mi>C</mi><mrow><mi>trough</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math>) and peak concentrations (<math><mrow><msub><mi>C</mi><mrow><mi>peak</mi></mrow></msub></mrow></math>), and residual plots, the dose for patients 3, 7, 9, and 16 was increased to 600 mg/day, and the dose for patient 20 was decreased to 400 mg/day, while keeping the remaining patients' doses unchanged, and the serum concentration at the time of the last administration was predicted, which showed that the Bayesian hierarchical model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm in this study performed well.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":"36 5","pages":"765-780"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148801828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jun Tamura, Yusuke Saigusa, Junichi Fujita, Kouji Yamamoto
{"title":"Bayesian method for comparing F1 scores in the absence of a gold standard.","authors":"Jun Tamura, Yusuke Saigusa, Junichi Fujita, Kouji Yamamoto","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2450319","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2025.2450319","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the field of medicine, evaluating the diagnostic performance of new diagnostic methods can be challenging, especially in the absence of a gold standard. This study proposes a methodology for assessing the performance of diagnostic tests by estimating the posterior distribution of the <math><mrow><msub><mi>F</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></mrow></math> score using latent class analysis, without relying on a gold standard. The proposed method utilizes Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the posterior distribution of the <math><mrow><msub><mi>F</mi><mn>1</mn></msub></mrow></math> score, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of diagnostic test methods. By applying this method to internet addiction, we demonstrate how latent class analysis can be effectively used to assess diagnostic performance, offering a practical solution for situations where no gold standard is available. The effectiveness of the proposed approach was evaluated through simulation studies by examining the coverage probability of the 95% highest density interval of the estimated posterior distributions.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"801-811"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143048841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tianhui Zhang, Benjamin Phillips, Natasha Karp, Junmin Wang, Steven Novick
{"title":"Whole-cage randomization for animal studies with unequal cage or group sizes.","authors":"Tianhui Zhang, Benjamin Phillips, Natasha Karp, Junmin Wang, Steven Novick","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2023.2256834","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2023.2256834","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Following good statistical practice, <i>in vivo</i> study investigators allocate animals into two or more treatment groups using a randomization routine to eliminate selection bias and balance known and unknown confounding factors. For some studies, however, randomization at the individual animal level cannot be implemented. For example, for studies that involve co-housed male mice, an animal-level randomization can place unfamiliar mice together in the same cage, which can trigger fighting. To meet the ethical obligations to enhance the welfare of an animal used in science, the experimental procedures are, therefore, often modified, and male mice, possibly from the same brood, may be housed together. It follows that animal allocation into groups must proceed at the whole-cage level. Given the small sample sizes in animal studies, controlling baseline variables can be quite challenging. The difficulty greatly increases with a whole-cage randomization restriction. When the number of animals per cage or the treatment group sizes are unequal, there is no algorithm in the literature to perform the task. We propose a novel, fast, and reliable algorithm to provide a whole-cage randomization that balances one or more baseline variables across groups. The algorithm was applied to a realistic example dataset.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"742-752"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41179421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Valid overall odds ratio estimators using different stratified sampling schemes.","authors":"Hani M Samawi, Jing Kersey","doi":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2444232","DOIUrl":"10.1080/10543406.2024.2444232","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The study presents valid estimators for determining the overall odds ratio between two independent groups within stratified populations, utilizing both simple stratified sampling (SSRS) and stratified ranked set sampling (SRSS) methodologies. Through analytical derivations, we establish the expected values and variances for these estimators. Two distinct types of estimators namely, the naive weighted and the Cochran Mantel-Haenszel-Haenszel approaches are thoroughly examined. Our investigation encompasses an in-depth analysis of the expectation and variance of these estimators, shedding light on their performance characteristics. Through intensive simulation experiments, we discern that estimators based on SRSS exhibit notable advantages over their SSRS counterparts. To validate the efficacy of our proposed estimators, we conduct an empirical assessment utilizing data from the (2009-2010) National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Through this analysis, we glean insights into the performance of the estimators in a real-world context. In summary, our study contributes valuable insights into the estimation of the overall odds ratio within stratified populations. By comparing SSRS and SRSS methodologies and evaluating different estimation approaches, we provide researchers with robust tools for analyzing odds ratios in diverse settings. Moreover, our empirical validation using NHANES data underscores the practical utility of the proposed estimators in real-world applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":54870,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics","volume":" ","pages":"781-800"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142900513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}