Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics最新文献

{"title":"Why Transform Y? The Pitfalls of Transformed Regressions with a Mass at Zero*","authors":"John Mullahy,&nbsp;Edward C. Norton","doi":"10.1111/obes.12583","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12583","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Applied economists often transform a dependent variable that is non-negative and skewed with the natural log transformation, the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation, or power function. We show that these transformations separate the zeros from the positives such that the estimated parameters are related to those from a scaled linear probability model. The retransformed marginal effects and elasticities are sensitive to changes in a shape parameter, ranging in magnitude between those of an untransformed least squares regression and those of a scaled linear probability model. Instead of transforming the dependent variable with non-negative outcomes that includes zeros, we recommend using a non-transformed dependent variable, such as a two-part model, untransformed linear regression, or Poisson.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 2","pages":"417-447"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12583","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138534685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Brief History of General-to-specific Modelling*","authors":"David F. Hendry","doi":"10.1111/obes.12578","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12578","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We review key stages in the development of general-to-specific modelling (<i>Gets</i>). Selecting a simplified model from a more general specification was initially implemented manually, then through computer programs to its present automated machine learning role to discover a viable empirical model. Throughout, <i>Gets</i> applications faced many criticisms, especially from accusations of ‘data mining’—no longer pejorative—with other criticisms based on misunderstandings of the methodology, all now rebutted. A prior theoretical formulation can be retained unaltered while searching over more variables than the available sample size from non-stationary data to select congruent, encompassing relations with invariant parameters on valid conditioning variables.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 1","pages":"1-20"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12578","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135635152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foetal Exposure to Air Pollution and Students' Cognitive Performance: Evidence from Agricultural Fires in Brazil*","authors":"Juliana Carneiro,&nbsp;Matthew A. Cole,&nbsp;Eric Strobl","doi":"10.1111/obes.12579","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12579","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the impact of foetal exposure to air pollution from agricultural fires on Brazilian students' cognitive performance later in life. We rely on comparisons across children who were upwind and downwind of the fires while <i>in utero</i> to address concerns around sorting and temporary income shocks. Our findings show that agricultural fires increase <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>PM</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 <mo>.</mo>\u0000 <mn>5</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {mathrm{PM}}_{2.5} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>, resulting in significant negative effects on pupils' scores in Portuguese and Maths in the <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>5</mn>\u0000 <mtext>th</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ 5mathrm{th} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> grade through prenatal exposure. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that a 1% reduction in <math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mtext>PM</mtext>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 <mo>.</mo>\u0000 <mn>5</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ {mathrm{PM}}_{2.5} $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> from agricultural burning has the potential to increase later life wages by 2.6%.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 1","pages":"156-186"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-10-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12579","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135113014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Looking Beyond the Trap: Fiscal Legacy and Central Bank Independence*","authors":"Charles de Beauffort","doi":"10.1111/obes.12580","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12580","url":null,"abstract":"<p>I model a stochastic non-cooperative game between an independent central bank and a treasury and study optimal time-consistent policy in the context of demand-driven recessions and an occasionally binding zero lower bound constraint. Departing from coordination leads to contractionary fiscal policy in the liquidity trap. The persistent decline in short-term government debt improves price stability and welfare albeit at the expense of a deeper recession in the near term. Underlying this policy is the anticipated risk of monetary tightening during the economic recovery in response to fiscally induced inflation. The issuance of long-term government debt helps to buffer the yield to maturity against interest rate fluctuations, thereby reducing the relevance of central bank independence for macroeconomic outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 2","pages":"385-416"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136113854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Non-parametric Estimator for Conditional Mode with Parametric Features*","authors":"Tao Wang","doi":"10.1111/obes.12577","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12577","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We in this paper propose a new approach for estimating conditional mode non-parametrically to capture the ‘most likely’ effect built on local linear approximation, in which a parametric pilot modal regression is locally adjusted through a kernel smoothing fit to potentially reduce the bias asymptotically without affecting the variance of the estimator. Specifically, we first estimate a parametric modal regression utilizing prior information from initial studies or economic analysis, and then estimate the non-parametric modal function based on the additive correction by eliminating the parametric feature. We derive the asymptotic normal distribution of the proposed modal estimator for both fixed and estimated parametric feature cases, and demonstrate that there is substantial room for bias reduction under certain regularity conditions. We numerically estimate the suggested modal regression model with the use of a modified modal-expectation-maximization (MEM) algorithm. Monte Carlo simulations and one empirical analysis are presented to illustrate the finite sample performance of the developed modal estimator. Several extensions, including multiplicative correction, generalized guidance, modal-based robust regression and the incorporation of categorical covariates, are also discussed for the sake of completeness.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 1","pages":"44-73"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135803204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Smooth and Abrupt Dynamics in Financial Volatility: The MS-MEM-MIDAS*","authors":"Luca Scaffidi Domianello,&nbsp;Giampiero M. Gallo,&nbsp;Edoardo Otranto","doi":"10.1111/obes.12576","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12576","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this paper, we maintain that the evolution of the realized volatility is characterized by a combination of high-frequency dynamics and smoother, yet persistent, dynamics evolving at a lower frequency. We suggest a new Multiplicative Error Model which combines the mixed frequency features of a MIDAS at the monthly level with Markovian dynamics at the daily level. When estimated in-sample on the realized kernel volatility of the S&amp;P500 index, this model dominates other simpler specifications, especially when monthly aggregated realized volatility is used. The same pattern is confirmed in the out-of-sample forecasting performance which suggests that adding an abrupt change in the average level of volatility better helps in tracking quick bursts of volatility and a relatively rapid absorption of the shocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 1","pages":"21-43"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135483967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are Economics Conferences Gender-Neutral? Evidence from Ireland*","authors":"Margaret Samahita,&nbsp;Kevin Devereux","doi":"10.1111/obes.12575","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12575","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We study gender inequality in conference acceptance using data from the Irish Economic Association annual conference from 2016 to 2022, exploiting the introduction of anonymized submission in 2021 to study the effect of blinding. While no gender gap is observed in organizers' acceptance decisions, there is an indication of gender difference favouring the in-group at the reviewer stage. In particular, male reviewers persistently give higher scores to papers with an increasing share of male authors. Evidence suggests that the difference stems from unconscious stereotyping against lesser known female authors. Anonymization eliminates the gender gap of male reviewers, but introduces a gender gap in favour of male authors for female reviewers. We explore differential selection as an alternative explanation, finding that reviewer experience postblinding could potentially account for our results.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 1","pages":"101-118"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12575","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135739740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The impact of import competition from China on firm-level productivity growth in the European Union*","authors":"Klaus S. Friesenbichler,&nbsp;Agnes Kügler,&nbsp;Andreas Reinstaller","doi":"10.1111/obes.12574","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12574","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We re-examined the impact of rising imports from China on intra-firm productivity growth in the European Union during the period 2005–16. In contrast to previous studies, we found that an increasing share of Chinese imports in total imports has slowed productivity growth over the observation period. This unfolded especially after the 2008/09 financial crisis and was more pronounced for firms with lower productivity growth. On average, the net effect of China's increasing import intensity on productivity growth has been negative for firms in the European Union since 2010. At the beginning of the sample, firms growing at the median rate experienced a modest growth-enhancing effect of 0.02 percentage points, which turned slightly negative at −0.06 percentage points in the last observation year. The effect was muted for high-growth multinational firms, which experienced a productivity growth premium from Chinese import competition at higher growth rates. Compared with the United States, the negative impact of Chinese import competition on the performance of EU firms is visible with a time lag.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 2","pages":"236-256"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44504874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sequencing the COVID-19 Recession in the USA: What Were the Macroeconomic Drivers?","authors":"Max Breitenlechner,&nbsp;Martin Geiger,&nbsp;Daniel Gründler,&nbsp;Johann Scharler","doi":"10.1111/obes.12573","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12573","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We apply a structural vectorautoregressive analysis to decompose fluctuations in the growth rate of industrial production and inflation precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA into aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and uncertainty shocks. While all three types of shocks contributed to output and inflation dynamics, the surge in economic uncertainty contributed to the decline in output more strongly than aggregate demand or aggregate supply disruptions. In 2021, the decline in uncertainty and adverse aggregate supply shocks emerged to be similarly important in spurring inflation.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 1","pages":"119-136"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12573","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41392146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Effect of Immigration on Occupational Injuries: Evidence from Administrative Data*","authors":"Caterina Alacevich,&nbsp;Catia Nicodemo","doi":"10.1111/obes.12572","DOIUrl":"10.1111/obes.12572","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The task specialization literature suggests that migrant workers concentrate on physically intensive occupations, pushing natives towards less-risky jobs. What is the effect of immigration on the severity of work-related injuries? By matching administrative data on work-related injuries and residence registries in Italy, this paper shows that migrant inflows lead to a reduction of physical impairment and injury-related paid sick leave for native workers, independently from occupation and sector transitions. The effect is largest in manufacturing and construction and among the eldest employees. The analysis exploits spatial and temporal variation in foreign-born residents' province shares and an instrumental variable strategy based on historical co-national local settlements. To rationalize the underlying mechanism, we show that migrant workers sort into risky occupations and we study workforce composition effects. We rule out that the effect is due to higher unemployment among natives with lower education, more exposed to injury risks, or to native workers' local migration. Longitudinal worker-level data from the Labor Force Survey show that native workers' transitions between sectors and occupations in response to immigration are not significant. Hence, our results suggest that the reduction in injury severity may result from a reallocation of riskier <i>tasks</i> from native workers, especially of older ages, to migrant workers, even when occupational transitions do not occur.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":"86 2","pages":"209-235"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12572","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47355296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}