Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics最新文献

{"title":"A physics-informed neural network enhanced importance sampling (PINN-IS) for data-free reliability analysis","authors":"Atin Roy ,&nbsp;Tanmoy Chatterjee ,&nbsp;Sondipon Adhikari","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103701","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103701","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reliability analysis of highly sensitive structures is crucial to prevent catastrophic failures and ensure safety. Therefore, these safety-critical systems are to be designed for extremely rare failure events. Accurate statistical quantification of these events associated with a very low probability of occurrence requires millions of evaluations of the limit state function (LSF) involving computationally expensive numerical simulations. Variance reduction techniques like importance sampling (IS) reduce such repetitions to a few thousand. The use of a data-centric metamodel can further cut it down to a few hundred. In data-centric metamodeling approaches, the actual complex numerical analysis is performed at a few points to train the metamodel for approximating the structural response. On the other hand, a physics-informed neural network (PINN) can predict the structural response based on the governing differential equation describing the physics of the problem, without a single evaluation of the complex numerical solver, i.e., data-free. However, the existing PINN models for reliability analysis have been effective only in estimating a large range of failure probabilities (10⁻¹∼10⁻³). To address this issue, the present study develops a PINN-based data-free reliability analysis for low failure probabilities (&lt;10⁻⁵). In doing so, a two-stage PINN integrated with IS (PINN-IS) is proposed. The first stage is employed to approximate the most probable failure point (MPP) appropriately while the second stage enhances the accuracy of LSF predictions at the IS population centred on the approximated MPP. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is numerically illustrated by three structural reliability analysis examples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103701"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142442719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A joint time–space extrapolation approach within the Wiener path integral technique for efficient stochastic response determination of nonlinear systems","authors":"Ilias G. Mavromatis,&nbsp;Ioannis A. Kougioumtzoglou","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103685","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A joint time–space extrapolation approach within the Wiener path integral (WPI) technique is developed for determining, efficiently and accurately, the non-stationary stochastic response of diverse nonlinear dynamical systems. The approach can be construed as an extension of a recently developed space-domain extrapolation scheme to account also for the temporal dimension. Specifically, based on a variational principle, the WPI technique yields a boundary value problem (BVP) to be solved for determining a most probable path corresponding to specific final boundary conditions. Further, the most probable path is used for evaluating, approximately, a point of the system response joint probability density function (PDF) corresponding to a specific time instant. Remarkably, the BVP exhibits two unique features that are exploited in this paper for developing an efficient joint time–space extrapolation approach. First, the BVPs corresponding to two neighboring grid points in the spatial domain of the response PDF not only share the same equations, but also the boundary conditions differ only slightly. Second, information inherent in the time-history of an already determined most probable path can be used for evaluating points of the response PDF corresponding to arbitrary time instants, without the need for solving additional BVPs. In a nutshell, relying on the aforementioned unique and advantageous features of the WPI-based BVP, the complete non-stationary response joint PDF is determined, first, by calculating numerically a relatively small number of PDF points, and second, by extrapolating in the joint time–space domain at practically zero additional computational cost. Compared to a standard brute-force implementation of the WPI technique, the developed extrapolation approach reduces the associated computational cost by several orders of magnitude. Two numerical examples relating to an oscillator with asymmetric nonlinearities and fractional derivative elements, and to a nonlinear structure under combined stochastic and deterministic periodic loading are considered for demonstrating the reliability of the extrapolation approach. Juxtapositions with pertinent Monte Carlo simulation data are included as well.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103685"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142323814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stability analysis of tunnel heading in clay with nonstationary random fields of undrained shear strength","authors":"Weeradetch Tanapalungkorn ,&nbsp;Wittawat Yodsomjai ,&nbsp;Suraparb Keawsawasvong ,&nbsp;Thanh Son Nguyen ,&nbsp;Weeraya Chim-Oye ,&nbsp;Suched Likitlersuang","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103692","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103692","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The stability problem of a tunnel heading in clay remains a significant challenge in geotechnical engineering. Specifically, when considering the spatial variability of the soil, the stability factor may be influenced by geographically random fields. This study investigates the effect of random fields on a probabilistic analysis of a tunnel heading in undrained clay. The study assumes that the undrained shear strength of the clay increases linearly with depth due to a strength gradient factor. The random adaptive finite element limit analysis is employed to calculate the stability numbers for tunnel headings. Nonstationary random fields with varying vertical correlation lengths are simulated using Monte Carlo simulation technique. The stability analysis takes into account geometry parameters (i.e., cover depth ratio) and nonstationary random field of undrained shear strength parameters. (i.e., strength gradient, coefficient of variation, and vertical correlation length). The results of tunnel face stability using random adaptive finite element limit analysis have also been utilised to assess the probability of design failure over a practical range of deterministic factors of safety. In the context of probabilistic failure analysis, the failure mechanism resulting from varying vertical correlation lengths could influence the probability of design failure. The findings of this study can be of significant interest to tunnel engineering practitioners during the design phase of tunnel heading projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103692"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142316043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Novel Bayesian updating based interpolation method for estimating failure probability function in the presence of random-interval uncertainty","authors":"Yuhua Yan ,&nbsp;Zhenzhou Lu","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103694","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103694","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under random-interval uncertainty, the failure probability function (FPF) represents the failure probability variation as a function of the random input distribution parameter. To quickly capture the effect of the distribution parameters on failure probability and decouple the reliability-based design optimization, a novel Bayesian updating method is proposed to efficiently estimate the FPF. In the proposed method, the prior augmented failure probability (AFP) is first estimated in the space spanned by random input and distribution parameter vectors. Subsequently, by treating the distribution parameter realization as an observation, the FPF can be estimated using posterior AFP based on Bayesian updating. The main novelty of this study is the elaborate treatment of the distribution parameter realization as an observation, whereby the FPF is transformed into the posterior AFP based on Bayesian updating, and can be obtained by sharing the prior AFP simulation samples. The computational cost of the proposed method is the same as that of estimating the prior AFP. To improve the efficiency of recognizing the sample state, and improve AFP and in turn FPF estimation, the adaptive Kriging model for random-interval uncertainty was inserted into the proposed method. The feasibility and novelty of the proposed method were verified on several examples.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103694"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142323815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compilation of wheel-rail comprehensive irregularity spectrum for subway vehicle","authors":"Qiushi Wang ,&nbsp;Hui Zhao ,&nbsp;Dao Gong ,&nbsp;Jinlong Qiu ,&nbsp;Pengfei Wu ,&nbsp;Xiaoming Li ,&nbsp;Xiyang Zhu ,&nbsp;Hongyi Xiang ,&nbsp;Tengfei Wang ,&nbsp;Zhongmin Xiao ,&nbsp;Jinsong Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103691","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103691","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The irregularity excitation experienced by subway vehicles is mainly the result of the interaction between the track and wheel. However, in the early system design and simulation analysis of subway vehicles, most only used the traditional standard track irregularity spectrum as the input excitation, ignoring or underestimating the contribution of the wheel irregularity. Based on our statistical analysis of 200 000 km of tracking test data of subway vehicle wheel irregularities, we found that the short-wave irregularity caused by the wheels far exceeds the traditional standard track irregularity. The service condition of the vehicle is seriously affected, especially in the final stage of a wheel re-profile period. To address the above issues: Firstly, the sensitive wavelength range (16. 67–2500 mm) of subway vehicles was derived based on the axle box acceleration spectrum of IEC61373: 2010, which was very close to the wavelength range (50–2627 mm) of the wheel irregularity spectrum proposed later, demonstrating the importance of compiling a wheel irregularity spectrum; Secondly, based on the large number of tracking test data of wheel out-of-roundness, a calculation method of the wheel irregularity quantile spectrum under the Johnson non-normal transformation system was proposed; Thirdly, according to the different stages of the wheel re-profile period, the wheel irregularity spectrum is introduced to correct the short-wave segments of the traditional standard track irregularity spectrum to compile a wheel-rail comprehensive irregularity spectrum.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103691"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142316044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An imprecise multiscale uncertainty quantification framework for fiber reinforced composites","authors":"Haodong Zhao,&nbsp;Changcong Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The study focuses on the reliability and global sensitivity analysis of fiber-reinforced composite radome structures, considering uncertainty from a multiscale perspective. Macroparameters are estimated based on microparameters using the multiscale analysis method for composites, and a reliability analysis model of the composite structure at the macrolevel is constructed. The material performance mechanism is explored in depth, both \"from bottom to top\" and \"from top to bottom\", to reveal its inherent laws. Due to insufficient variable distribution information, an imprecise probabilistic model is introduced to characterize the uncertainty effect in multiscale composite analysis. A nested optimization calculation method is applied to obtain reliability and sensitivity results. To ensure both calculation accuracy and efficiency, the regression and classification problems encountered in the proposed framework are addressed using two support vector machine models. The reliability and sensitivity analysis under the imprecise probabilistic framework can help engineers identify significant influential factors, thereby guiding the design of composite radome structures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103686"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142311996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hybrid Bayesian-Copula-based damage probability estimation for steel-concrete composite tall buildings under concurrent seismic and wind loads","authors":"Xiao-Wei Zheng ,&nbsp;Jie Cheng ,&nbsp;Ling-Xin Zhang ,&nbsp;Xian-Xin Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103693","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103693","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tall buildings with long service periods inevitably face multiple hazards, and the uncertainty associated with various factors has a considerable impact on life-cycle structural safety estimation. This study presents a hybrid Bayesian-Copula-based methodology for evaluating the damage risk e of tall buildings under concurrent seismic and strong wind excitations that incorporate various uncertainties. The main contributions of this study to the field of probabilistic multi-hazard risk assessment include the following: (1) The Bayes statistic method is employed to develop posterior probability distributions of the unknown parameters in the marginal probability models of an individual earthquake and strong wind as well as parameters involved in the multi-hazard demand model for fragility estimation. (2) The Bayesian-based method is applied to update the existing joint probabilistic model of earthquakes and strong winds. (3) A new method is presented to estimate the muti-hazard fragility bounds. The damage risk assessment quantifies the epistemic uncertainties of the unknown demand model parameters by calculating the total probability in the domain of the definition of the model parameters. A representative composite building with 42 floors is selected to perform this multi-hazard damage risk assessment method. The application of this study highlights the considerable impact of epistemic uncertainties and loading directions on damage risk. This presented Bayesian-Copula-based method is beneficial for decision-making involving tall buildings subjected to multiple hazards.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"78 ","pages":"Article 103693"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142311995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Numerical investigation of turbulence effect on flight trajectory of spherical windborne debris: A multi-layered approach","authors":"Shaopeng Li ,&nbsp;Kurtis Gurley ,&nbsp;Yanlin Guo ,&nbsp;John van de Lindt","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103661","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103661","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurate modeling of the turbulent wind field is a crucial component of risk analysis for structures to windborne debris damage. Existing studies typically simplify the complexities of wind turbulence, and the potential influence on the accuracy of debris flight modeling has not been systematically demonstrated. This study takes a multi-layered approach to numerically simulate the flight trajectory of spherical debris in a turbulent wind field. Complexities are incrementally added to the simulated wind field to systematically investigate the influence of spatial correlation and non-Gaussian features of turbulence on debris flight behavior. The sensitivity of debris flight behavior to turbulent wind features will inform the design of debris flight tracking wind tunnel tests and building façade debris vulnerability modeling efforts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103661"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141483784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Uncertainties quantification for damage localization in concrete based on Bayesian method","authors":"Minghui Zhang,&nbsp;Deyuan Zhou,&nbsp;Xia Yang,&nbsp;Xiangtao Sun,&nbsp;Qingzhao Kong","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103660","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The presence of defects in concrete can diminish load-bearing capacity of structures, giving rise to potential concerns regarding safety and durability. Thus, a method that enhances the sensitivity, resolution and robustness of damage localization is critically necessary to assess the condition of concrete structures. This research presents a damage localization method based on Bayesian probabilistic fusion, and uncertainties from measurement and identification process are considered and quantified. The likelihood function is constructed based on the hyperbola-based damage localization method, and the posterior distributions of unknown parameters are calculated via Bayesian theorem combined with measurement data. Furthermore, a meso-level finite element model is established, wherein the concrete medium is considered as a three-phase composite material consisting of polygonal aggregates, mortar matrix and interface transition zones. Owing to the meso-level modeling, the propagation behavior of stress waves within concrete and complicated interactions between stress waves and concrete internal structures can be better characterized. Finally, the damage information, time-difference-of arrival, is extracted from the response signals and the efficiency of the proposed method is verified numerically. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed probabilistic fusion method outperforms the conventional hyperbola-based method in terms of achieving high spatial resolution and resilience in damage localization.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103660"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141596427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Performance-based target reliability analysis of offshore wind turbine mooring lines subjected to the wind and wave","authors":"Mohammad Safari ,&nbsp;Seyed Hooman Ghasemi ,&nbsp;Andrzej S. Nowak","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Reliability assessment is a crucial aspect of the design and operation of structures, particularly in balancing safety and cost considerations. This paper introduces a novel method for evaluating the performance-based target reliability of floating wind turbine platforms in offshore environments. The method focuses on the platform's motion modes and wave frequencies, which significantly influence the system's structural integrity and performance. An improved limit state function is proposed to enhance the accuracy of reliability calculations, specifically for steady-state conditions. The platform's six degrees of freedom motions are carefully analyzed to investigate their dependence on wave frequencies. By considering the time response of these motions and accounting for uncertainties in wave characteristics, wave impact directions, and wind effects, a comprehensive reliability analysis is conducted to assess the stability modes of the platform. This paper introduces the term 'Reliability Performance-Based' (RPB) analysis as a new concept to evaluate the system's reliability at a given performance level. Furthermore, an optimal target reliability index is defined to address the economic aspect of the design process. The proposed methodology's PEB analysis focuses on capturing uncertainties in wave characteristics and wind effects on floating wind turbine platforms. This includes a detailed examination of wave and wind-induced loads and their propagation through the system concerning its performance level. Statistical models were integrated to quantify these uncertainties, applying Monte Carlo simulations to assess their effects on the platform's reliability. This approach allows for a nuanced understanding of the interactions between environmental factors and structural responses, enhancing the precision of our reliability assessments. It enables the consideration of economic efficiency alongside safety, ensuring a balanced approach to the design and operation of the floating wind turbine platform. By providing a comprehensive reliability assessment framework, it aids in the optimization of design and decision-making processes for floating wind turbine platforms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"77 ","pages":"Article 103673"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141934393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}