Han Wang, Mingfei Ma, Xianzhen Huang, Yaping Zhao, Xiaowang Ci
{"title":"Prediction and reliability-based design optimization of natural frequency for metal bellows under fluid-structure interaction","authors":"Han Wang, Mingfei Ma, Xianzhen Huang, Yaping Zhao, Xiaowang Ci","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Metal bellows are widely used in various vibrating machinery systems, where their corrugated structure is prone to vibration under external loads. When fluid flows internally, significant fluid-structure interaction occurs between structural vibration and fluid motion. The fluid creates an added mass effect on the inner wall of the bellows, altering its dynamic characteristics and influencing its natural frequency. Therefore, accurately predicting the natural frequency of metal bellows under fluid-structure interaction conditions holds significant engineering importance.</div><div>This paper primarily covers two aspects: First, a mathematical model for calculating the added mass of a liquid was established based on potential flow theory, enabling the computation of its axial natural frequency. This model was validated through comparison with finite element modal analysis and modal experimental results. The findings demonstrate high accuracy in natural frequency prediction, preliminarily confirming the validity and effectiveness of the theoretical model. Second, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is employed to conduct reliability and sensitivity analyses of the system. Building upon this foundation, the Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm is introduced for structural optimization design. The RBDO not only achieves lightweight design objectives but also significantly enhances the overall system reliability. This approach provides a novel perspective and methodology for the structural optimization design of metal bellows under fluid-structure interaction conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103924"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Dimension-reduction simulation of near-fault pulse-like stochastic ground motion processes","authors":"Zixin Liu , Xin Chen , Zhangjun Liu , Yuxin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103926","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103926","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Near-fault ground motions often exhibit pronounced low-frequency velocity pulses and can cause more severe structural damage than far-field seismic motions. The present study identifies the stochastic model parameters for near-fault pulse-like ground motions using measured records, accounting for pulses induced by forward-directivity and fling-step effects respectively. On this basis, the dimension-reduction framework is developed for efficient simulation of near-fault pulse-like ground motions. For the low-frequency component, the Gabor wavelet model is utilized to identify and simulate forward-directivity-induced pulses, while a random half-wave model is proposed to identify and simulate fling-step-induced pulses. The high-frequency component is simulated using the spectral representation method, with its evolutionary power spectrum density model re-parameterized via the frequency-domain energy distribution function. Finally, the dimension-reduction representation is introduced, enabling the accurate modeling of near-fault pulse-like seismic processes using merely five elementary random variables. Numerical examples have verified the effectiveness of the suggested strategy, which captures the randomness of both low- and high-frequency components of near-fault pulse-like ground motions while addressing the challenges posed by the ultra-high randomness degree and random sampling in conventional Monte Carlo method.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103926"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147657376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reliability-based shear design and safety assessment of corrugated steel web girders","authors":"Uttam Kumar Pandit, Goutam Mondal, Devesh Punera","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103935","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103935","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The corrugated steel web (CSW) girders are used in bridges and industrial structures due to their high strength-to-weight ratio, good energy absorption, and higher lateral stability as compared to flat web girders. The stability of CSW girders has been one of the focuses of existing literature, with most of the studies using the flat web girder stability criteria with modifications in geometrical properties. Further, only a limited standard code of practices includes the design of CSW girders separately. The present study highlights the limitations of existing design provisions by comparing their predictions with experimental results and proposes a modified shear design guideline for CSW girders. A comprehensive statistical reliability analysis is carried out to include the model uncertainty and material geometrical variabilities in the proposed model. The proposed model is further verified with a numerical model and evaluated for compliance with the requisite safety factors as per Eurocode recommendations. The predicted lower level limit of the design buckling curve based on the reliability model is found to have good agreement with the existing experimental results. The proposed design guidelines have been further customized for the Indian standard code, IS 800:2007, based on the existing provisions of the flat web steel girders.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103935"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147858248","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Static reliability analysis of structures with probability-interval hybrid uncertainties using direct probability integration method and genetic algorithms","authors":"Xiao-Xiao Liu, Dong Cheng, Xi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103922","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103922","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In modern engineering structural systems of increasing complexity, static reliability analysis considering stochastic and non-probabilistic hybrid uncertainties plays a crucial role in safety assessment. However, for large-scale and highly complex engineering systems, efficient and accurate analytical methods are still required to reliably estimate the upper and lower bounds of structural failure probabilities. This chapter introduces a static probability-interval hybrid reliability analysis method that integrates the Direct Probability Integral Method with a Genetic Algorithm (DPIM–GA) to better address practical engineering requirements. The proposed approach integrates the strengths of the DPIM and GA, enabling the simultaneous consideration of random variables and interval parameters to provide a comprehensive representation of system uncertainty. Employing the GA to conduct an extensive exploration of the solution space allows for the efficient identification of the global optimum or a near-optimal solution of the structural performance function, after which the DPIM is applied to obtain reliable analytical results. Through multiple engineering case studies, the effectiveness and high computational efficiency of the proposed method in handling high-dimensional and complex problems are validated. The results indicate that the DPIM–GA approach achieves satisfactory accuracy and reliability in practical applications, providing a valuable method for hybrid uncertainty reliability analysis of static systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103922"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Roman Kalbitz , Andriy Prots , Max Dittmann , Matthias Voigt , Ronald Mailach
{"title":"Global sensitivity analysis through advanced ANCOVA decomposition for correlated inputs","authors":"Roman Kalbitz , Andriy Prots , Max Dittmann , Matthias Voigt , Ronald Mailach","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sensitivity analysis methods have been shown to provide useful information on the influence of the variance of model inputs on the variance of the model response. Several methodologies have been devised to effectively capture these influences, particularly in the context of uncorrelated inputs. However, many real-world applications are hindered by the fact that inputs are correlated, a challenge that traditional methods often fail to address effectively. Consequently, a new methodology is proposed that can differentiate between structural and correlated influences for systems with quadratic main and interaction effects, using an advanced ANCOVA (analysis of covariance) approach. This approach is defined by a detailed analytical decomposition of the covariance matrix provided by the approximated model by means of a high dimensional model representation. This decomposition of the variance- and covariance-equations enables a novel allocation of all the derived terms, thus formulating new sensitivity measures. The validity of the proposed methodology is substantiated by means of a comprehensive numerical investigation, which involves the analysis of multiple test functions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103915"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147601761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Step-stress likelihood inference for the modified Lindley distribution","authors":"Ayman Baklizi","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103931","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103931","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We develop likelihood-based inference for a two-level step-stress accelerated life test (SSALT) under the Modified Lindley (MoL) lifetime model. The distributional parameter is allowed to change at a pre-specified stress-change time through a log-link, with <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>θ</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>=</mo><mo>exp</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><msub><mrow><mi>β</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span> before the change and <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>θ</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub><mo>=</mo><mo>exp</mo><mrow><mo>(</mo><msub><mrow><mi>β</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub><mo>+</mo><msub><mrow><mi>β</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>1</mn></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></mrow></math></span> after the change. Under Type-I hybrid censoring, we derive the corresponding log-likelihood, obtain the maximum likelihood estimators, and construct Wald and profile likelihood-ratio confidence intervals for the model parameters and for decision-relevant functionals, including the mean life, quantiles, and mission-time reliability. We also introduce a Monte Carlo calibration-and-design layer for selecting <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>n</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>τ</mi><mo>,</mo><msub><mrow><mi>t</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>end</mi></mrow></msub><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> to meet operating-risk requirements at two planning points while minimizing an operational objective such as expected test duration or total cost. The proposed framework clarifies the role of the Modified Lindley model in SSALT, gives explicit conditions supporting MLE-based inference, uses Type-I hybrid censoring to control test duration while retaining failure information, and includes a preliminary examination of the observed failure times before the hybrid-censored analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103931"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147713829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Prescribed-performance-based adaptive control for Markovian jump stochastic nonlinear systems with actuator backlash-like hysteresis and unmodeled dynamics","authors":"Mohamed Kharrat","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the problem of adaptive fuzzy control with prescribed performance for a class of stochastic nonlinear systems characterized by Markovian jumps, unmodeled dynamics, and unknown backlash-like hysteresis. The system nonlinearities and the stochastic switching behavior are considered entirely unknown. To address these uncertainties, fuzzy logic systems are employed to approximate the unknown continuous nonlinear functions, while a dynamic auxiliary signal is introduced to mitigate the influence of unmodeled dynamics and facilitate the controller design. By embedding a prescribed-performance framework into the control design, the proposed approach ensures that the tracking error is strictly restricted within a predefined performance bound. Rigorous stochastic stability analysis demonstrates that all closed-loop signals remain bounded in probability and that the tracking error converges while satisfying the specified performance constraints. The effectiveness and practical feasibility of the developed control scheme are further verified through numerical example and an application to a single-link robotic system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103927"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147713857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Adaptive framework for seismic reliability analysis of multi-story structures via modern deep-learning model","authors":"Thanh-Tung Pham, Manh-Tung Vo, Viet-Hung Dang, Truong-Thang Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103928","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103928","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates a novel, adaptive framework utilizing <strong>q</strong>uantile regression for the <strong>D</strong>ynamic <strong>R</strong>eliability <strong>A</strong>nalysis (qDRA) of structures subjected to ground motions, a highly challenging and time-intensive task involving a two-stage computational procedure consisting of dynamic analysis and reliability analysis. The novelty of the proposed method is threefold. First, it designs and implements a hybrid deep learning surrogate model to predict structural dynamic responses given ground motions and random variable inputs. Next, a quantile regression technique is integrated for uncertainty quantification, enabling the selection of relevant candidates to update the model based on estimated uncertainty. In the third step, an adaptive learning process is conducted to progressively improve the prediction model's performance using these selected candidates. It is noteworthy that the prediction model can provide entire time history responses of structures, hence multiple failure criteria could be considered, such as maximum displacement, inter-story drift, and soft safety thresholds with different numbers of exceedances. The method's applicability and efficiency are highlighted via two case studies involving a planar frame with viscous dampers and a 3D three-story building structure with up to 68 random variables. The obtained results reaffirm that the proposed method can provide dynamic reliability results with comparable accuracy to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation, 30 times faster. It also outperforms fourteen other deep learning/machine learning-based counterparts in terms of both accuracy and efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103928"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147713858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xinbo He , Wenkai Feng , Ju Su , Dazhi Zhang , Tianyu Zhao
{"title":"Research on the random detuning vibration characteristics of the pre-twisted multi -blade disk coupled system based on Gaussian regression surrogate model","authors":"Xinbo He , Wenkai Feng , Ju Su , Dazhi Zhang , Tianyu Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103933","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103933","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the performance upgrade of high-end power equipment such as aero engines and gas turbines, the rotor of the disk-blade coupling system, as a core component, often suffers from blade mistuning in practical applications. This will significantly alter the modal characteristics of the disk-blade coupling system and trigger a series of hazards. To explore the influence of mistuning on the disk-blade coupling system, this paper adopts the component mode synthesis method, combines Kirchhoff plate theory with Lagrange's equation to establish a disk-blade coupling model. The accuracy of the model was verified through commercial finite element analysis and experimental validation. The random detuning of blade stiffness was introduced, and the influence laws of key parameters on detuning vibration characteristics were studied based on machine learning. The research can provide theoretical support and technical reference for the mistuning fault-tolerant design, vibration control and life prediction of disk-blade coupling rotors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103933"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147748145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muyan Bai , Shichao Ma , Ping Han , Wantao Jia , Xin Ning
{"title":"First passage probability of overturning problem for the rocking motion of rigid block excited by the Poisson white noise","authors":"Muyan Bai , Shichao Ma , Ping Han , Wantao Jia , Xin Ning","doi":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.probengmech.2026.103929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Precision instruments in spacecrafts may overturn under stochastic impulse excitation, leading to irreparable consequences. This phenomenon can be regarded as a reliability problem involving the rocking motion of rigid blocks. So, in this paper, the first passage time statistics and exit location distributions are discussed to characterize the overturning problem of the rigid block rocking motion subjected to the Poisson white noise. The proposed generalized cell mapping method is introduced to obtain key reliability indicators, including the mean first passage time, probability density function of the first passage time, reliability function, and exit location distributions. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate the accuracy of the proposed method. Detailed numerical results indicate that increasing the impulse excitation intensity, restitution coefficient and slenderness ratio decreases the reliability of the rocking motion. For cases where overturning is inevitable, analysis of the exit velocity distribution, shows that the restitution coefficient does not influence the exit velocity at the onset of overturning. In contract, a larger slenderness ratio leads to higher a larger exit velocity, while stronger noise excitation broadens the distribution range of exit velocity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54583,"journal":{"name":"Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics","volume":"84 ","pages":"Article 103929"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147713831","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}