{"title":"Modeling Rare Events and Nonmonotone Nonignorable Missingness of Time-Varying Outcomes and Predictors in Binary Time-Series Daily Diary Data: A Bayesian Selection Model.","authors":"Sun-Joo Cho, Autumn Kujawa, Corinne Carlton, Yinru Long, Rachel Marlowe","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10120","DOIUrl":"10.1017/psy.2026.10120","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study investigates the relationship between daily interpersonal stress (binary, time-varying) and suicidal behavior (binary, time-varying) using 90 days of daily diary data from 106 adolescents assessed immediately after discharge from acute psychiatric treatment. It addresses two key complexities: the rarity of suicidal events and non-monotone, non-ignorable missingness in both the outcome and the predictor. Because existing methods often fail to accommodate these complexities, leading to biased estimates, a Bayesian selection model is specified. The model integrates a mixed-effects complementary log-log regression for rare events with a missingness model that accounts for non-monotone, non-ignorable missingness in the outcome. A probit mixed-effects model is used for the time-varying predictor, along with a corresponding missingness model for its non-monotone, non-ignorable missingness. Empirical results support the applicability of the specified model to longitudinal studies involving rare events and complex missing-data structures. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrates parameter recovery and highlights bias in focal parameters when sensitivity parameters in the outcome and missingness models are ignored.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-35"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13353901/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148200993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PsychometrikaPub Date : 2026-05-26DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10124
Jan O Bauer
{"title":"Revelle's Beta: The Wait Is Over-Computation Becomes Possible.","authors":"Jan O Bauer","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10124","DOIUrl":"10.1017/psy.2026.10124","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Over 45 years ago, William Revelle proposed a reliability measure based on the worst split-half of a test or scale, commonly known as <i>Revelle's beta</i>, to assess the general factor saturation. However, to this day, there is no reliable method for computing this measure, as existing approaches are either computationally infeasible or insufficiently accurate in identifying the worst split-half. This difficulty arises because the number of candidate splits increases exponentially with the number of items. In this article, we show that computing Revelle's beta is conceptually equivalent to divisive (\"top-down\") hierarchical clustering. This insight allows us to reduce the number of candidate splits to a quadratic problem, making the computation feasible. We specify theoretical conditions under which this approach is guaranteed to recover the worst split-half. To validate the efficiency of our approach, we conduct simulation studies and analyze real-world data. Code implementations accompanying this work are available online, together with Supplementary Material.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148037851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PsychometrikaPub Date : 2026-05-19DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10122
L Andries van der Ark
{"title":"User-Friendly Software and Estimated Conditional Standard Errors of Measurement. A Commentary on Pfadt et al.","authors":"L Andries van der Ark","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10122","DOIUrl":"10.1017/psy.2026.10122","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this commentary on Pfadt et al. (2026, <i>Psychometrika</i> , 1-35), I first make the case for implementing psychometric methods, such as the conditional standard error of measurement (CSEM), in software that is user-friendly from a practitioner's perspective. Furthermore, I argue that bias and variance in CSEM estimates are still poorly understood and I report a small simulation study comparing the coverage rates of the CSEM estimate recommended by Pfadt et al. with those of the estimated (unconditional) standard error of measurement. The results point to possible directions for future research on CSEM estimation.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-4"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147977070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PsychometrikaPub Date : 2026-05-19DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10116
Won-Chan Lee
{"title":"Conceptual Issues in CSEM Estimation and Interpretation: Commentary on Pfadt et al.","authors":"Won-Chan Lee","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10116","DOIUrl":"10.1017/psy.2026.10116","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Pfadt et al. present accessible methods for estimating conditional standard errors of measurement (CSEMs) and implement them in the open-source software JASP. Their emphasis on individual-level precision represents an important contribution to applied measurement practice. This commentary discusses several conceptual issues that clarify and extend the authors' treatment of dimensionality, error definition, and score interpretation. The aim is to strengthen alignment between CSEM estimation and the interpretive purposes for which test scores are used.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147977065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PsychometrikaPub Date : 2026-05-19DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10118
Tenko Raykov
{"title":"On Estimating the Precision of Individual Test Scores: A Note on Pfadt, Molenaar, Hurks, and Sijtsma.","authors":"Tenko Raykov","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10118","DOIUrl":"10.1017/psy.2026.10118","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A discussion is provided of several issues related to behavioral measurement that arise from Pfadt et al. (2026, <i>Psychometrika</i>, 2026, 1-35). The note may be viewed in part as a complement to their developments regarding precision estimation for individual test scores.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147977006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PsychometrikaPub Date : 2026-05-12DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10121
Jing Wu, Zhihua Ma, Ming-Hui Chen
{"title":"Bayesian Modeling and Inference for Item Response Model with Nonignorable Missing Data.","authors":"Jing Wu, Zhihua Ma, Ming-Hui Chen","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10121","DOIUrl":"10.1017/psy.2026.10121","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Not-reached (dropout) and omitted (intermittent missingness) behaviors are often inevitable in timed computerized tests. These missingness behaviors may be related to the subject's latent traits, the difficulty of the item, or even the unobserved item response itself. In order to better understand the underlying test-taking behaviors, a Bayesian hierarchical framework is adopted to jointly model the item response, the item response time, the not-reached, and the omitted behaviors. For missing data, a sequential multinomial model is developed for the not-reached behavior, and a conditional model is proposed for the omitted behavior conditioning on the not-reached behavior. A decomposed logarithm of the pseudo marginal likelihood (LPML) is then developed to assess the fit of the missing data models. It can be further used to quantify the importance of modeling item response and response time jointly versus individually in identifying the missing data mechanism. The empirical performance of the proposed models and the model assessment criterion are examined through extensive simulations. The proposed methodology is further applied to analyze the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018 Test.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-42"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147876526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Variable Selection via Knockoffs in Missing Data Settings with Categorical Predictors.","authors":"Silvia Bacci, Emanuela Dreassi, Leonardo Grilli, Carla Rampichini","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psy.2026.10109","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Large-scale assessment data typically include numerous variables, often affected by missing values. Motivated by the challenges arising in this framework, we extend the knockoffs method for selecting predictors to settings with missing values. Our proposal relies on a preliminary phase of multiple imputation (MI) of missing values. Each imputed dataset is then processed using a suitable knockoff filter. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through simulation studies, showing satisfactory results consistent with a recently advocated cutting-edge method. We apply the method to large-scale assessment data collected by INVALSI on test scores of Italian students in grade 5, including many background variables. This case study is challenging, as most predictors have unordered categories, a setting not considered by traditional knockoff methods. In addition, some of the key predictors are affected by missing values. Our proposal to implement the knockoffs method within an MI framework is feasible, flexible, and effective.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147876498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PsychometrikaPub Date : 2026-05-08DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10119
Edgar C Merkle
{"title":"Bayesian Estimation of Normal and Probit Psychometric Models.","authors":"Edgar C Merkle","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10119","DOIUrl":"10.1017/psy.2026.10119","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This article synthesizes popular approaches to Bayesian estimation of psychometric models that rely on the multivariate normal distribution, including point estimation of posterior central tendency, Gibbs sampling, and Hamiltonian sampling. We place emphasis on the geometry of the posterior distribution, on building intuition by drawing connections to regression, and on providing background about how relevant matrix results are obtained. We also consider how the results can be extended to handle related psychometric models, including popular item response models. The goal is to provide researchers with ideas and tools for designing their own Bayesian estimation methods, which we hope will lead to continued developments and improvements.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-27"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147846056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
PsychometrikaPub Date : 2026-05-07DOI: 10.1017/psy.2026.10105
Karel Veldkamp, Raoul Grasman, Dylan Molenaar
{"title":"Estimating Discrete Latent Variable Models Using Amortized Variational Inference.","authors":"Karel Veldkamp, Raoul Grasman, Dylan Molenaar","doi":"10.1017/psy.2026.10105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psy.2026.10105","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent research shows that amortized variational inference (AVI) can be used to efficiently estimate high-dimensional latent variable models on large datasets. However, its use has remained limited to item response theory (IRT), and generalizing the approach to discrete latent variable models is not straightforward. We propose two ways to deal with this problem. In an initial simulation, we verify that these approaches can be used to estimate simple discrete latent variable models, such as latent class analysis and the generalized deterministic inputs, noisy and gate model. In these cases, AVI provides accurate parameter estimates, although the computational advantage over marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and standard variational inference (VI) is limited. We then apply the same approach to estimate mixture IRT models. In this case, AVI is computationally faster than MML estimation and standard VI. To demonstrate the practical applicability of our AVI approach, we use it to fit a seven-dimensional mixture IRT model to a narcissism inventory. Whereas quadrature-based methods cannot feasibly estimate models of this dimensionality, the efficient AVI approach even allows for computation of bootstrapped standard errors. We provide our code, along with an easy-to-use tool for fitting these models to new datasets.</p>","PeriodicalId":54534,"journal":{"name":"Psychometrika","volume":" ","pages":"1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2026-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147846142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}