{"title":"Capital Flows and Market Resilience: a Comparative Study of Turkey and Poland During the Global Health Crisis","authors":"Cezary Bolek, Monika Bolek, Burcu Zengin","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09543-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09543-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study aims to investigate the differentiated impact of the Global Health Crisis (GHC) on the financial markets of Turkey and Poland, considering the influence of EUR/TRY and EUR/PLN exchange rate volatility in 2019 and 2022 on stock market indices. Employing correlation coefficients and difference analysis on daily data of the BIST100 and WIG indices, the research compares market reactions pre- and post-pandemic. The analysis reveals distinct responses: relative stability in Poland versus significant changes in Turkey after the pandemic. These divergent reactions are attributed to the dominant types of capital flows in each country – volatile foreign portfolio investment in Turkey and more stable foreign direct investment in Poland. The study adds value by systematically comparing these markets with contrasting capital flow structures and theoretical underpinnings (stock-driven vs. flow-driven models), identifying shifts in market behavior following the GHC, and discussing their implications for understanding emerging market resilience.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1345 - 1365"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10690-025-09543-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of ESG on Chinese-Listed Companies: From a New Perspective of Firm Value","authors":"Qiyu Li, Wee-Yeap Lau, Kok-Haur Ng","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09542-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09542-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The lack of reliable indicators of firm value leads to the overestimation or underestimation of the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) on it. Hence, this study adopts a composite firm value indicator that takes into account a firm’s current operation and expectations of the market outlook. Based on 1,511 Chinese A-share listed firms from 2009 to 2023, our results show that, firstly, ESG improvement raises the firm value. Secondly, pillars of “E” and “S” both positively affect firm value. At the same time, there is a negative nexus between “G” and firm value. Thirdly, given the heterogeneity of the firm, the nexus between ESG and firm value can be affected by ownership structure, location, and specific industries. In addition, sensitivity testing is conducted on the composite indicator and robustness tests such as alternative ESG ratings, two-stage least squares and the propensity score matching method are carried out to confirm the unbiasedness of the results. Our findings deepen the understanding of the association between ESG and firm value, contributing to various stakeholders’ implementation of the ESG philosophy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1321 - 1343"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10690-025-09542-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Risk Assessment and Prediction of Mortgage Loans to Individual Farmers: A Case Study of China","authors":"Guangqing Zhang, Hong Mei","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09531-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09531-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>High default rates have long been regarded as a significant internal barrier to the advancement of mortgage loans secured by land-use rights in China. To analyze the factors that affect the default of land-use right mortgage loans, this study empirically examines data on mortgage loans over land use rights in an eastern Chinese province by applying the Cox proportional hazards model. The findings reveal that factors such as loan amount, credit score, planting insurance coverage ratio, and order-to-sales ratio significantly impact the likelihood of default. Moreover, according to the Kaplan–Meier (KM) curve results, default rates are particularly likely to rise during specific weeks around the 27th, 36th, and 45th weeks of the loan cycle, which may be related to the harvest cycle of agricultural products. Further, to explore the loan status for risk control purposes, we develop a robust risk prediction model, characterized by its continuous prediction capability, lack of need for sample pairing, and exceptional robustness, using Nomogram plots and ROC curves. Our research provides commercial banks with a reliable way to forecast and monitor the default risks of land-use right mortgage loan.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1023 - 1042"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Response of Asian Stock Market to Japan's Monetary Policy Uncertainty: a Quantile-On-Quantile Based Evidence","authors":"Ehsan Ullah, Hassan Zada, Muhammad Shahzad Ijaz, Sidra Nazir, Md. Emran Hossain","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09540-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09540-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the influence of Japan's Monetary Policy Uncertainty (MPU) on Asian developed, emerging, and frontier stock markets from January 2006 to December 2022 using the Quantile-on-Quantile regression. The findings reveal a negative impact of Japan's MPU on stock returns across various countries. However, the strength of this effect varies, underscoring differences in economic policy uncertainty spillover. Notably, the study identifies that the negative impact is more pronounced at higher MPU quantiles and lower stock market return quantiles. Conversely, positive impacts are observed at lower MPU quantiles and higher stock market return quantiles, suggesting that increased uncertainty diminishes returns during bearish trends and enhances returns during bullish trends. Frontier markets exhibit a neutral to positive relationship, with the positive effect more noticeable during bearish conditions and across different MPU quantiles. The robustness of these results has been verified by using the Instrumental Variable Quantile regression (IVQR) model. The findings emphasize the need for policymakers to enhance transparency and communication to mitigate the adverse effects of Japan's MPU on Asian stock markets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1249 - 1281"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Does Geopolitical Risk Promote Globalisation? Evidence from Advanced Asian Economies","authors":"Shreya Pal, Mantu Kumar Mahalik","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09539-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09539-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study delves into the interplay between geopolitical risk and the globalization index in six advanced Asian economies: Australia, Hong Kong SAR (China), Japan, the Korean Republic, New Zealand, and Singapore, from 1996 to 2021. This study controls for gross fixed capital formation, governance quality, and economic growth. Using Driscoll-Kraay Standard Errors and the Feasible Generalized Least Squares techniques, it finds positive effects of economic growth and geopolitical risk on globalization, while gross fixed capital formation and governance quality adversely affect globalization. The policy implications highlight the need for proactive measures to mitigate geopolitical risk, prioritize sustainable economic growth, optimize gross fixed capital investment, and enhance governance quality. The policymakers in advanced Asia should consider developing strategies that reduce the volatility of geopolitical factors, such as strengthening international cooperation, fostering regional stability, and implementing crisis management frameworks. Additionally, a more targeted approach to gross capital investment is necessary to ensure that gross fixed capital formation promotes globalization without increasing economic inefficiencies or fostering protectionist tendencies. Improving governance quality, particularly by enhancing transparency, reducing corruption, and strengthening institutional frameworks, is crucial to facilitating more resilient and inclusive globalization. Furthermore, governments in advanced Asia should aim to integrate policies that align with long-term sustainable growth while ensuring that economic development does not come at the cost of social and environmental stability. By addressing these factors, policymakers can create a conducive environment for globalization that promotes economic prosperity, reduces risks, and enhances global connectivity.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1225 - 1248"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Thi Diem Huong Hoang, Thi Tuan Anh Tran, Nhan-Phu Chung
{"title":"Time-Varying Granger Causality Analysis: the Relationship Between Domestic Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Markets in Emerging Economies","authors":"Thi Diem Huong Hoang, Thi Tuan Anh Tran, Nhan-Phu Chung","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09530-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09530-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This article investigates the Granger causality between the domestic Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index, stock returns, and stock volatility in seven emerging countries including Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, and Singapore. The results present a detailed context of Granger causality between EPU and stock return/volatility across these seven countries. In Russia, the effect of policy changes on market dynamics points to the necessity for robust policies that can maintain market stability amid uncertainty. The findings from China and Singapore suggest that EPU may not be a reliable indicator for stock market movements in these regions. Additionally, the consistent impact of EPU on stock volatility in several countries emphasizes the need to integrate EPU measures into risk management and hedging strategies, particularly in places like Mexico where EPU significantly influences volatility. In countries like Nigeria, where the connection between EPU and market variables is weak, the focus might shift towards other domestic or global risk factors. Policymakers are urged to consider these findings to better understand the implications of their decisions on economic stability, especially given the observed bidirectional causality in countries like Brazil before 2016 and Russia, which could lead to increased market volatility.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"997 - 1021"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Krishangi Pandey, Radwa Radwan Said, Md Shabbir Alam, S. M. Jawed Akhtar
{"title":"Board Dynamics and Firm Performance: A Wavelet-Based Empirical Analysis","authors":"Krishangi Pandey, Radwa Radwan Said, Md Shabbir Alam, S. M. Jawed Akhtar","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09537-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09537-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The study addresses a gap in the literature on emerging markets by analyzing the relationship between the financial performance of Indian banks and their board dynamics. We establish a Board Composition Index (BCI) using data from Indian banks from 2013 to 2022, taking into account key attributes like CEO duality, board size, independence, and gender diversity. The study uses wavelet analysis and the Hausman test to look at how well banks are doing, using the Non-Performing Asset Ratio (NPA), Net Interest Margin (NIM), and Loan to Deposit Ratio (LTD) as measures. Bank size (BSIZE), sales growth (SAG), and leverage (LEV) are used as control variables. The study's findings indicate that board independence significantly impacts sales growth, underscoring the crucial role of independent directors in enhancing corporate performance via increased accountability and governance. There is a strong negative correlation between the presence of female directors on boards and sales growth. This indicates that an increase in female representation on boards may not immediately lead to enhanced financial success.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1169 - 1192"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Extreme Risk Connectedness and its Determinants Between Carbon, Green Finance and Energy Markets","authors":"Xiaoye Jin","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09536-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09536-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Prior studies investigating the shared vision of mitigating carbon emissions has fostered the interconnection between carbon market and other markets. However, these studies are usually confined to developed countries, largely overlooking emerging economies. This study is the first attempt in the literature to investigate the extreme risk connectedness between carbon, green finance, and energy markets in China based on the value at risk and expected shortfall connectedness measures. After contributing to the existing literature by proposing a two-step analytical framework that consists of the hybrid GAS/GARCH model and the time–frequency BK model, we find that the extreme risk connectedness between carbon, green finance, and energy markets has suffered from intense external shocks during unexpected economic periods. The dominance of high-frequency connectedness over the low-frequency connectedness reflects the intensified contagion during economically turbulent times. The net extreme risk connectedness characterizes the carbon and green bond markets as the net receivers of spillovers and the low carbon stock and energy markets as the net transmitters of spillovers with significant market condition variations. In addition, this study contributes to the existing literature by offering a series of intriguing implications for policymakers formulating prudent risk monitoring framework and market participants optimizing investment portfolios using carbon and green assets.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1135 - 1168"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Li Bei, Mohammad Nourani, Qian Long Kweh, Ikhlaas Gurrib, Jawad Asif
{"title":"The Influence of FinTech on the Capital Adequacy Ratio of Commercial Banks in China","authors":"Li Bei, Mohammad Nourani, Qian Long Kweh, Ikhlaas Gurrib, Jawad Asif","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09538-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09538-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study investigates the impact of FinTech on bank capital adequacy, by analyzing yearly financial indicators of 25 Chinese commercial banks from 2012 to 2021. Using the Pekin Digital Inclusive Finance Index, this study examines the influence of FinTech development on the banking industry by providing theoretical support and practical guidance to understand the mechanisms through which FinTech affects bank capital adequacy in China. Main findings suggests that FinTech initially reduces the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) because of higher marginal costs/risks as compared to benefits/returns. However, as firms increase investments in FinTech, their marginal benefits surpass the costs. In this way, we pay close attention to the interplay between FinTech and banking operations to help comprehend the current trends in the finance industry. Finally, in line with China's financial structure which is predominantly led by commercial banks, this paper proposes a series of practical policy recommendations to promote high-quality financial services and enhance competition. These policy recommendations are designed to address the challenges posed by FinTech and drive the banking industry to confront the financial challenges of the new era, ultimately achieving sustainable development.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1193 - 1223"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Safe-Haven Dynamics: Asset Pricing and Resource Reallocation in Global Market Crises","authors":"Geeta Duppati, Anoop S. Kumar, Neha Matlani, Ravinder Rena, Ploypailin Kijkasiwat","doi":"10.1007/s10690-025-09535-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s10690-025-09535-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate whether gold and Bitcoin function as safe-haven assets during extreme market conditions, examining events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis employs daily returns of Bitcoin, gold, WTI, and Brent from January 2015 to December 2024. Using wavelet analysis specifically wavelet spectrum, wavelet coherence, and wavelet quantile correlation, we assess the assets' behavior under various crises. Additionally, we incorporate DCC-GARCH regression models to reinforce our findings. Results from the 2015–16 oil crisis indicate that Bitcoin served as a favored safe-haven asset, as shown by wavelet coherence. By contrast, data from the 2020 oil crash reveal stronger correlations for both Bitcoin and gold with WTI and Brent. Through wavelet quantile correlation, we further demonstrate that, during extreme market events, gold consistently outperforms Bitcoin as a safe haven. Our DCC regression model corroborates gold’s superior safe-haven status. Overall, our findings suggest that while Bitcoin may serve as a short-term safe haven or a long-term hedge and diversifier, gold remains the more reliable safe-haven asset in times of extreme market stress.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54095,"journal":{"name":"Asia-Pacific Financial Markets","volume":"33 3","pages":"1107 - 1133"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148496614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}