发布求助
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献

Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica最新文献

筛选
英文 中文
Do (Perceptions of) Electoral Polling Affect Voters' Behavior? Campaigns, Partisan Bias, and Strategic Voting 选举投票会影响选民的行为吗？竞选、党派偏见和战略投票
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2023-01-10 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.29606
Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
{"title":"Do (Perceptions of) Electoral Polling Affect Voters' Behavior? Campaigns, Partisan Bias, and Strategic Voting","authors":"Rodrigo Castro Cornejo","doi":"10.14201/rlop.29606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.29606","url":null,"abstract":"The manuscript highlights the major role that partisanship plays in moderating voters’ interpretation of polling information and incentives to behave strategically. While prior studies highlight that partisans are less likely to vote strategically as the expressive costs of defection increase, this study sheds light on the conditions in which voters—even partisans—behave strategically and which contribute to an increase in the proportion of voters who change their vote intention during campaigns. Only partisans informed about polls are able to overcome their partisan bias and engage in strategic voting. By taking strategic voting into account in the study of campaigns, the present work builds a bridge between the campaigns effects literature and studies on strategic voting.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44006823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When Inmigration is a New Issue: Evidence from Chile 2003 and 2017 何时移民是一个新问题：来自智利2003年和2017年的证据
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2022-09-23 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.27287
Gonzalo Espinoza Bianchini, Patricio D. Navia, Renata Cirano, Francisca Jara Nancuente
{"title":"When Inmigration is a New Issue: Evidence from Chile 2003 and 2017","authors":"Gonzalo Espinoza Bianchini, Patricio D. Navia, Renata Cirano, Francisca Jara Nancuente","doi":"10.14201/rlop.27287","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.27287","url":null,"abstract":"In countries where parties have not adopted strong policy positions on immigration–and where the immigrant population is not large–popular perceptions of immigrants might not reflect the ideological divides reported in the literature for countries where immigration is a politically salient issue. We assess the association of ideological identification with the perceptions of immigrants in Chile using two comparable national polls, one from 2003, before the recent immigration wave, and one from 2017, in the middle of an immigration wave, but before parties formally adopted policy positions on immigration. With OLS estimations, we find that, as expected, leftists had more positive views than the rest, but contrary to expectations, those on the right also had more positive views, especially in 2017. Views were more prominent in 2017 than in 2003, with those in the extreme left and extreme right displaying positive views.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44523882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Tolerance for Postponing Elections in Crisis Conditions 在危机情况下推迟选举的容忍度
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2022-09-23 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.26934
Luke Plutowski, Elizabeth J. Zechmeister
{"title":"Tolerance for Postponing Elections in Crisis Conditions","authors":"Luke Plutowski, Elizabeth J. Zechmeister","doi":"10.14201/rlop.26934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26934","url":null,"abstract":"Election postponements occur around the world for a variety of reasons, but they became especially widespread during the Covid-19 pandemic. Little is known how the public perceives and reacts to such democratic delays. To shed light on this topic, we included a question module in the 2021 AmericasBarometer about tolerance for alterations to democracy during periods of crisis. The data reveal that tolerance for election postponements is quite high. Further, through a wording experiment, we find that the public is more willing to accept such a delay during a health emergency vis-à-vis an alternative condition (widespread violence). We contextualize these findings by comparing them with attitudes about a more extreme anti-democratic disruption: a coup d’etat by security forces. Coups are significantly less popular than election postponements, especially during a health emergency. The results improve our understanding of public appetite for authoritarianism during periods of crisis.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49590190","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco. The Volatility Curse: Exogenous Shocks and Representation in Resource-Rich Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020. 240 pages. ISBN: 978-1-108-84197-5. Daniela Campello和Cesar Zucco。波动性诅咒:资源丰富的民主国家的外生冲击和代表性。剑桥:剑桥大学出版社，2020。240页。ISBN: 978-1-108-84197-5。
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.28963
Yoonyoung Cho
{"title":"Daniela Campello and Cesar Zucco. The Volatility Curse: Exogenous Shocks and Representation in Resource-Rich Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2020. 240 pages. ISBN: 978-1-108-84197-5.","authors":"Yoonyoung Cho","doi":"10.14201/rlop.28963","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.28963","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47329061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Conservar y disponibilizar treinta años de opinión pública: lecciones aprendidas del caso uruguayo 保存和提供三十年的民意:从乌拉圭案例中吸取的教训
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.28676
Eliana Álvarez, Juan Bogliaccini, Martín Opertti, Rosario Queirolo Velasco
{"title":"Conservar y disponibilizar treinta años de opinión pública: lecciones aprendidas del caso uruguayo","authors":"Eliana Álvarez, Juan Bogliaccini, Martín Opertti, Rosario Queirolo Velasco","doi":"10.14201/rlop.28676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.28676","url":null,"abstract":"América Latina tiene una larga trayectoria de estudios de opinión pública; las encuestas son una herramienta utilizada de forma frecuente para conocer las opiniones, actitudes y comportamientos de los ciudadanos. Sin embargo, a menudo éstos se mantienen privados, siendo inaccesibles para investigadores y tomadores de decisiones. Asimismo, las consultoras responsables enfrentan desafíos particulares para hacer disponibles los datos. Esta nota muestra un posible camino. En él describimos la experiencia del Laboratorio de Opinión Pública y Redes Sociales (LOPReS) de Uruguay, un ejemplo de interseccionalidad entre academia, sector privado y financiamiento público, que permitió la liberación de más de 200 encuestas de opinión pública realizadas entre 1993 y 2020. Asimismo,\u0000reflexionamos sobre tres importantes lecciones aprendidas a partir del proyecto: la relevancia de la construcción de vínculos de confianza, la generación de incentivos para la colaboración y la importancia del financiamiento. El caso sirve de ejemplo para analizar estrategias que permitan la apertura de información, con la participación de diversos actores trabajando de forma colaborativa y sus oportunidades para la investigación.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43158102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Carew Boulding and Claudio A. Holzner (2021). Voice and Inequality: Poverty and Political Participation in Latin American Democracies. New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. 244 pages. ISBN: 9780197542149. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197542149.001.0001 Carew Boulding和Claudio A. Holzner(2021)。声音与不平等:拉丁美洲民主国家的贫困与政治参与。纽约:牛津大学出版社，2021。244页。ISBN: 9780197542149。DOI: 10.1093 / oso / 9780197542149.001.0001
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.29192
Rosario Aguilar
{"title":"Carew Boulding and Claudio A. Holzner (2021). Voice and Inequality: Poverty and Political Participation in Latin American Democracies. New York: Oxford University Press, 2021. 244 pages. ISBN: 9780197542149. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197542149.001.0001","authors":"Rosario Aguilar","doi":"10.14201/rlop.29192","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.29192","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43580625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error 预测新民主国家的两场赛马：准确性、准确性和误差
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.25374
Kenneth Bunker
{"title":"Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error","authors":"Kenneth Bunker","doi":"10.14201/rlop.25374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.25374","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in terms of accuracy (how close the forecast is to the election results), precision (how close the forecast is to other methods of prediction) and error (how the forecast deviates from perfect accuracy/precision). The article finds that while the TSM does appear to be a stable estimator, its accuracy and precision is affected under certain conditions. Using the difference in the results for each of the two questions, the article discusses how sharp and unexpected shifts in electoral preferences can affect forecasts.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45755807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Against all Odds: Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections in times of political disruption 克服一切困难：预测政治动荡时期的巴西总统选举
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.25882
Frederico Bertholini, Lucio R. Rennó, Mathieu Turgeon
{"title":"Against all Odds: Forecasting Brazilian Presidential Elections in times of political disruption","authors":"Frederico Bertholini, Lucio R. Rennó, Mathieu Turgeon","doi":"10.14201/rlop.25882","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.25882","url":null,"abstract":"When the number of observed elections is low, subnational data can be used to perform electoral forecasts. Turgeon and Rennó (2012) applied this solution and proposed three forecasting models to analyze Brazilian presidential elections (1994-2006). The models, adapted from forecasting models of American and French presidential elections, considers economic and political factors. We extend their analysis to the recent presidential elections in Brazil (2010, 2014 and 2018) and find that the addition of the three recent elections does not improve the accuracy of our forecast models although it strengthens the relationship between the explanatory variables and vote for the incumbent. We also find that models based on the popularity of the incumbent outperform those based on trial-heat polls and that electoral forecast models can survive earthquake elections like the 2018 election that led to the unexpected rise of “outsider” and extremist candidate Jair Bolsonaro.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46106604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Unmasked Electorate: Co-Partisanship, Personal Experience, and Perceptions of COVID-19 Risk in Mexico 无障碍选民：墨西哥新冠肺炎风险的合作、个人经验和认知
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.26490
Rebecca V. Bell-Martin, Alejandro Díaz Domínguez
{"title":"The Unmasked Electorate: Co-Partisanship, Personal Experience, and Perceptions of COVID-19 Risk in Mexico","authors":"Rebecca V. Bell-Martin, Alejandro Díaz Domínguez","doi":"10.14201/rlop.26490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26490","url":null,"abstract":"Research suggests partisanship influences individual perceptions of COVID-19 risk and preventative behaviors. We ask a distinct but equally urgent question: what factors are associated with variation in risk perception among co-partisans? Even among members of the same party, some individuals’ risk perceptions reflect the party line while others deviate from it. We explore this question in Mexico, where the president utilized his rhetoric to downplay the severity of the pandemic. Why do some of the presidents’ co-partisans perceive COVID-19 as a serious risk (despite partisan appeals to the contrary), while others do not? Drawing on theories of risk perception, we hypothesize that this variation is associated with personal risk experience, like knowing someone who contracted COVID-19. We test this hypothesis via a large-n survey of MORENA supporters. We find that personal experiences are consistently associated with variation in risk perception. Strength of partisan ties, meanwhile, is only activated when paired with risk experience.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48129406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The auxílio emergencial and stringent social distancing policies in Brazil: the impact on mobility and non-work travel outside the home 巴西auxílio紧急和严格的社会距离政策:对流动和非工作旅行的影响
Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica Pub Date : 2021-11-30 DOI: 10.14201/rlop.26591
L. Barberia, K. Piazza
{"title":"The auxílio emergencial and stringent social distancing policies in Brazil: the impact on mobility and non-work travel outside the home","authors":"L. Barberia, K. Piazza","doi":"10.14201/rlop.26591","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14201/rlop.26591","url":null,"abstract":"Non-pharmaceutical interventions to increase physical distancing have been instrumental in mitigating the spread of COVID-19. Governments have enacted stringent public health policies that impose limits on mobility outside the household. However, for containment policies to be effective, there is a growing understanding that emergency aid programs must be designed to ensure that the most vulnerable receive financial and in-kind aid resources to support their ability to “stay at home.” In this study, we use survey data from an Oxford \u0000USP-FGV collaborative research initiative to empirically assess the effectiveness of these two policies in reducing mobility with an eye to those at-risk or living in conditions of poverty in eight Brazilian capitals. We learn that, in general, neither stringent public health policies and receipt nor promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial were effective in limiting mobility outside of the home. We do, however, find limited evidence that receipt or promised receipt of the Auxílio Emergencial marginally limited non-work trips outside of the home, especially in city/state combinations with stringent public health policies. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.","PeriodicalId":52748,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Opinion Publica","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48789902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
首页 上一页 下一页 尾页
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整，为了账户安全，请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
相关产品
×
本文献相关产品
联系我们：info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务，方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号：481959085
Book学术官方微信