Geography and Sustainability最新文献_第9页

Non-negligible large impact of potential forestation on livestock production in China 中国潜在的造林对畜牧业生产的巨大影响不容忽视

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100270

Changjiang Wu , Xiaoping Liu , Fengsong Pei , Kangyao Liu , Yaotong Cai , Xiaocong Xu , Haoming Zhuang , Yiling Cai , Bingjie Li

{"title":"Non-negligible large impact of potential forestation on livestock production in China","authors":"Changjiang Wu , Xiaoping Liu , Fengsong Pei , Kangyao Liu , Yaotong Cai , Xiaocong Xu , Haoming Zhuang , Yiling Cai , Bingjie Li","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100270","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100270","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forestation projects have been identified as an important component of climate mitigation strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. However, most previous studies ignore the impacts of potential forestation projects on livestock production, which is crucial to the livelihoods of local people. In this study, we identified potential forestation areas in China by integrating random forest regression model and LPJ-GUESS model. The impacts of potential forestation on carbon storage and pasture-based livestock production were then analyzed. The results showed that China has a potential forestation area of 43.2 million hectares, accounting for about 19.6 % of the country’s forest area as reported in the 9th National Forest Inventory. If all these regions are reforested, China’s forest cover will increase to 27.4 %. Furthermore, 1.58 Pg C of new above- and below-ground carbon would be sequestered, about an increase of 17.2 % of current forest carbon storage. However, the potential forestation may result in a significant negative impact on existing pastures and the amount of livestock. It can reduce 4.7 % of beef, and 0.8 % of mutton products from China’s livestock sector each year. These significant declines will result in a huge gap in China’s livestock products supply, posing a serious threat to food security and the livelihoods of many people. Our findings highlight that potential forestation projects should further consider a reasonable pasture protection strategy to balance the potential carbon sequestration and the socio-economic benefits of livestock production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100270"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimizing cropland expansion for minimizing ecosystem service loss in China 中国优化耕地扩展以减少生态系统服务损失

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100299

Siyan Zeng , Junna Liu , Jing Ma , Yongjun Yang , Gang-Jun Liu , Fu Chen

{"title":"Optimizing cropland expansion for minimizing ecosystem service loss in China","authors":"Siyan Zeng , Junna Liu , Jing Ma , Yongjun Yang , Gang-Jun Liu , Fu Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100299","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100299","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Global population growth and rising standards of living are the driving factors for the cropland expansion to meet increasing demands. However, there is no clear assessment of the specific losses on ecosystem services caused by China’s expansion of cropland to ensure food security at the cost of losing ecological land such as forests and grasslands. This study employed the ArcGIS platform and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to explore the cropland expansion in China from 2000 to 2020 and its impact on ecosystem services, so as to predict the priority areas of future cropland expansion in different scenarios. The results indicated that in the past 20 years, the total area of cropland expansion in China was 17.04 million hm<sup>2</sup> with 70.79 % conversion from forests and grasslands. Cropland expansion has contributed to an overall improvement in the food supply services with the Northern Arid and Semi-Arid Region exhibiting an increase of 18.76 × 10<sup>6</sup> tons, while concurrently leading to a decline in habitat quality services. The priority areas for future cropland expansion without ecological loss were found to be 1.42 million hm², which only account for 9.44 % of the total reclaimable land. To minimize the loss of ecosystem services, there is a need to adjust the cropland replenishment policies and provide an operational solution for global food security and ecological protection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100299"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143894698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate aridification and intensified human interference undermined water storage in the Lower Yellow River region 气候干旱化和人为干扰加剧使黄河下游地区的蓄水量减少

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100303

Xilin Wu , Xiaoming Feng , Bojie Fu

{"title":"Climate aridification and intensified human interference undermined water storage in the Lower Yellow River region","authors":"Xilin Wu , Xiaoming Feng , Bojie Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the relationships between human activities and hydrological processes is critical for sustainable water resources management, especially under the threat of increasing climate extremes. China’s Lower Yellow River (LYR) region is one of the world’s most water-scarce and human-impacted areas, yet comprehensive information on its water resources is lacking. This study adopted a water resources system (WRS) analytical framework to investigate the water crisis facing the region. The findings reveal that over the last decade, the system’s resilience has been undermined by the combined impacts of climate aridification and intensified human interference. Specifically, a delicate balance between natural groundwater depletion and irrigation replenishment has been disrupted by a series of drought events since 2012. Increased groundwater extraction during droughts, coupled with an imbalanced allocation of surface water resources, has led to a persistent decline in water storage that has continued even after the droughts have ended. To mitigate future climate risks in the LYR, we recommend implementing more adaptive strategies, such as flexible water regulation policies and combined surface-groundwater management. Lessons from the LYR have important implications for other regions facing water resource challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100303"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089629","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Immediate remote sensing of sudden earth’s surface anomalies and its geographical significance 地表突发性异常的即时遥感及其地理意义

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100305

Qiao Wang, Haishuo Wei

{"title":"Immediate remote sensing of sudden earth’s surface anomalies and its geographical significance","authors":"Qiao Wang, Haishuo Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100305","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100305","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sudden earth’s surface anomalies caused by natural and anthropogenic factors pose significant threats to ecological sustainability and the safety of human life and property, highlighting the urgent need for their immediate monitoring and early warning. Satellite remote sensing is the most effective means for large-scale earth’s surface anomaly detection. However, constrained by traditional observation paradigms, satellite payload limitations, and other physical factors, current remote sensing detection faces two major challenges: “inability to observe quickly” and “inability to observe effectively”. To solve these problems, we have researched immediate remote sensing detection of sudden earth’s surface anomalies. Its core concept is to deploy the entire detection process on satellites, enabling on-orbit immediate detection of earth’s surface anomalies based on a single image through the integrated “positioning, navigation, timing, remote sensing, communication (PNTRC)” intelligent constellation and edge computing technologies. Subsequently, the detection results are transmitted directly to the subscriber mobile terminal through the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS). The immediate remote sensing of sudden earth’s surface anomalies emphasizes the continuous capture and immediate feedback of geographic processes, overcoming the longstanding reliance of traditional geography on “slow variables”. Its significance lies not only in the improvement of data acquisition efficiency but also in promoting the transformation of geography from a “descriptive science” to a “predictive science”.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100305"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144212736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring regional variations in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions: Insights from Bangladesh’s districts 探讨农业温室气体排放的地区差异：来自孟加拉国各区的见解

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100298

Shaikh Shamim Hasan , Zhihui Li , Fan Zhang

{"title":"Exploring regional variations in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions: Insights from Bangladesh’s districts","authors":"Shaikh Shamim Hasan , Zhihui Li , Fan Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100298","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100298","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agriculture is part of the food production that feeds the expanding population though it produces considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It’s crucial to balancing food security and emission reduction for a win-win scenario. However, the lack of sufficient comprehensive district-level assessments makes it difficult to determine the specific mitigation potential for agriculture emissions. In this study, we deployed the IPCC Tier 1 approach and estimated GHG at district/division level in Bangladesh from the year 2010 to 2021. We computed three primary GHG (CO<sub>2</sub>, N<sub>2</sub>O, and CH<sub>4</sub>) from five sources of agriculture, namely, rice-growing CH<sub>4</sub>, other crops-growing N<sub>2</sub>O, enteric fermentation, urea fertilizer-induced N<sub>2</sub>O, and energy-related CO<sub>2</sub> emissions in the 64 districts, and aggregated them into eight divisions. We observed from this study that GHG emissions in Bangladesh gradually increased from 2010 to 2021 and reached the peak (34.3 MtCO<sub>2</sub>e) in 2021. Rangpur division emitted the highest amount of GHG (6.03 MtCO<sub>2</sub>e in 2021) during this period. We also observed significant variations in the sources and structure of emissions within each division. Moreover, regional differences were observed in overall emissions and per capita emissions after additional spatial analysis, with per capita GHG emissions declining from 2010 (1.97 tCO<sub>2</sub>e) to 2021 (1.90 tCO<sub>2</sub>e). Findings of this regional (district/division) estimation will help stakeholders of the country to develop suitable mitigation approaches which targets particular emission sources and geographic areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100298"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143894699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the dynamic impact of future land use changes on urban flood disasters: A case study in Zhengzhou City, China 探讨未来土地利用变化对城市洪涝灾害的动态影响——以郑州市为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100287

Yuanyuan Bai , Shao Sun , Yingjun Xu , Yi Zhao , Yujie Pan , Yao Xiao , Ruoxin Li

{"title":"Exploring the dynamic impact of future land use changes on urban flood disasters: A case study in Zhengzhou City, China","authors":"Yuanyuan Bai , Shao Sun , Yingjun Xu , Yi Zhao , Yujie Pan , Yao Xiao , Ruoxin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100287","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100287","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, urban floods have increased in frequency and severity due to intensified extreme rainfall events exacerbated by rapid urbanization. This study integrates a Markov-PLUS model and a rainfall-runoff-flood hydraulic numerical model to establish a scenario-based research framework for identifying interactions between land use dynamics and urban flood risk, using the Jialu River basin in Zhengzhou, China, as a case study. Future land use changes under three scenarios were forecast: Natural Development (ND), Economic Development (ED), and Ecological Protection (EP), alongside rainfall scenarios occurring every 10, 50, and 100 years. There were expansions and decreases in construction land under the ED and EP scenarios, respectively, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological conservation. Economic scenarios showed the highest risks under the increased surface runoff and flood risk driven by higher rainstorm intensity. Over the next 15 years, the Economic Development scenario is projected to increase flood hazard areas, whereas the intensified Ecological Protection scenario is expected to reduce these risks. This underscores the contribution of prioritizing ecological conservation to mitigating disaster risks, calling for enhanced drainage systems and elevated flood protection standards to promote resilient urban development in the face of increasingly severe urban flood challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100287"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143881327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A 36-year geospatial analysis of urbanization dynamics and surface urban heat island effect: Case study of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region 36年城市化动态与地表城市热岛效应的地理空间分析——以曼谷都市圈为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100322

Nattapong Puttanapong , Nithima Nuengjumnong , JoJinda SaeJung , Sitthisak Moukomla

{"title":"A 36-year geospatial analysis of urbanization dynamics and surface urban heat island effect: Case study of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region","authors":"Nattapong Puttanapong , Nithima Nuengjumnong , JoJinda SaeJung , Sitthisak Moukomla","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100322","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100322","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of urbanization on the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) over a 36-year period, utilizing advanced machine learning techniques to assess changes in land use and land cover (LULC). The research addresses three key questions: (1) How have changes in LULC influenced the dynamics of the urban heat island (UHI) effect in the BMR? (2) What roles do green and blue infrastructure play in mitigating urban heat? (3) How effectively can machine learning models classify LULC changes and provide insights to support sustainable urban planning? The findings reveal a strong correlation between urban growth and increased land surface temperatures (LST), with parks and water bodies exhibiting lower LSTs, emphasizing the importance of green and blue infrastructure in mitigating urban heat. The SUHI effect, initially measured at 3 °C from 1988 to 1991, peaked at 4.8 °C between 2012 and 2019 before slightly declining to 4.1 °C in recent years due to urban greening initiatives. However, ongoing urban development continues to diminish green spaces and water bodies, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable urban planning. Economic factors, including the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and land tax laws introduced in 2019, influenced land use patterns, further exacerbating the SUHI effect. The research highlights the necessity of integrated urban management and sustainable land use policies to enhance climate resilience in rapidly urbanizing regions like the BMR.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100322"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144335698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Temperature drives the variations in cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave events under future climate in Northeast China 温度驱动未来气候条件下东北地区干旱和热浪复合事件下农田暴露度的变化

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100292

Chuanwei Zhang , Jiangbo Gao , Lulu Liu , Yanjun Shen , Shaohong Wu

{"title":"Temperature drives the variations in cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave events under future climate in Northeast China","authors":"Chuanwei Zhang , Jiangbo Gao , Lulu Liu , Yanjun Shen , Shaohong Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100292","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100292","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exposure assessment is critical for hazard risk management. It is important to investigate the cropland exposure to compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events because of their severe impacts on agriculture. We quantified the variations in CDHW characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and magnitude) and the cropland exposure to CDHW events in Northeast China using 20 CMIP6 climate projections for each of the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). The results indicate that the intensification of CDHW events leading to an anticipated increase in cropland exposure ranges from 1.6-fold to 5.8-fold (the range describes the differences among SSPs), with the west and northeast of the region poised to experience more pronounced increases. Notably, adherence to the SSP126 pathway can reduce both the increase rate of CDHW magnitude and cropland exposure compared to other SSPs. Path analysis demonstrates that cropland exposure is primarily driven by maximum temperature (Tmax). Although precipitation (Pre) increases (0.36–0.75 mm year<sup>-1</sup>), the rise in potential evapotranspiration (PET) due to global warming is higher than that of Pre (0.26–1.07 mm year<sup>-1</sup>) except for SSP126, resulting in more drought events. Futhermore, elevated Tmax increases the frequency of extreme temperature events. Therefore, increases in Tmax and agricultural land area collectively contribute to exposure rise, with Tmax being the dominant factor in this process. Our findings emphasize the pivotal role of regulating the development pathway into SSP126 for sustainable agriculture, and optimizing crop patterns and planting heat-tolerant crop varieties are recommended for CDHW adaption.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100292"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143875068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The nexus between poverty reduction and carbon emissions: Insights from Hubei, China during the Targeted Poverty Alleviation Period 减贫与碳排放的关系：精准扶贫时期湖北的启示

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100308

Mengxiao Liu , Yong Ge

{"title":"The nexus between poverty reduction and carbon emissions: Insights from Hubei, China during the Targeted Poverty Alleviation Period","authors":"Mengxiao Liu , Yong Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100308","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100308","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wiping out poverty while controlling carbon emissions is a major challenge of our time. China eradicated extreme poverty in 2020 through the targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) strategy, providing a unique case to examine the poverty-carbon nexus at the subnational level. This paper investigates the nexus between county-level poverty reduction and carbon emissions in Hubei province during the TPA period. Our findings support the win-win hypothesis, indicating that poverty reduction and emissions control can be achieved simultaneously. CO₂ sequestration through vegetation emerged as a key factor benefiting both objectives, with a 1 % increase reducing poverty by 0.42 % and lowering carbon emissions by 0.19 %. Economic growth contributed to poverty alleviation but increased emissions: a 1 % rise in GDP reduced poverty by 0.44 % while raising emissions by 0.70 %. Conversely, a 1 % increase in electricity consumption raised poverty by 0.46 % and lowered emissions by 0.12 %. Agricultural development showed a 1 % increase correlated with 0.52 % higher poverty and 0.17 % higher emissions. “Carbon Sink+” trading mechanisms facilitated ecological poverty alleviation in impoverished areas. Panel causality analysis confirms a bidirectional relationship between poverty reduction and carbon emissions. These findings highlight the potential for integrated strategies that advance both poverty alleviation and emissions reduction while considering the complex socioeconomic dynamics necessary to achieve sustainable development goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100308"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144222016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation 基于社会经济发展与生态系统服务保护的青藏高原未来城市增长边界划分

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282

Qiaoxian Bai , Zhifeng Liu , Binghua Gong , Shuhui Liu , Xufeng Mao , Chunyang He

{"title":"Delineation of future urban growth boundaries on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau by integrating socioeconomic development and ecosystem services conservation","authors":"Qiaoxian Bai , Zhifeng Liu , Binghua Gong , Shuhui Liu , Xufeng Mao , Chunyang He","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QXP) serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China and the broader Asian region. The delineation of urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in this region with consideration of socioeconomic development and ecological protection is urgently needed, but there is a lack of such research. The objective of this study is to delineate the UGBs on the QXP during 2020–2100 to simultaneously meet the needs of socioeconomic development and ecosystem services (ESs) protection. To achieve this purpose, under a scenario matrix integrating shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and ESs protection, the urban expansion on the QXP during 2020–2100 was simulated by coupling the ESs assessment models and the zoned Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Finally, we compared the spatial patterns of the UGBs and the conservation effectiveness of ESs under different scenarios. The extent of UGBs on the QXP is projected to reach 2,045.60–2,231.10 km<sup>2</sup>, which is 62.23 %–76.95 % greater than the urban land area (1,260.90 km<sup>2</sup>) in 2020. Protecting the ESs can reduce the loss of the average natural habitat quality, food production, and carbon sequestration by 33.29 %–34.27 %, 8.61 %–18.23 %, and 36.56 %–40.34 %, respectively. Protecting food production and carbon sequestration in Qinghai Province are more effective, but in the Xizang Autonomous Region, protecting ESs has a considerable trade-off effect. The UGBs delineated in this study can offer a reference for future urban planning on the QXP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 4","pages":"Article 100282"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143863522","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0