Mapping and modelling impacts of tobacco farming on local higher plant diversity: A case study in Yunnan Province, China

The rapid expansion of tobacco farming poses a significant threat to biodiversity in Yunnan Province, China, a region known for its rich biodiversity. This study aims to understand the trade-offs between tobacco farming and higher plant species diversity, and to identify priority counties for conservation. We employed an integrated approach combining species distribution modeling, GIS overlay analysis, and empirical spatial regression to empirically assess the impact of tobacco farming intensity on biodiversity risk. Our findings reveal a compelling negative spatial correlation between tobacco farming expansion and higher plant species diversity. Specifically, southern counties in Wenshan and Honghe prefectures are major priority areas of conservation that exhibit significant spatial correlations between biodiversity risks and high tobacco farming intensity. Quantitatively, at county level, a 1 % increase in tobacco farming area corresponds to a 0.094 % decrease in endemic higher plant species richness across the entire province. These results underscore the need for targeted and region-specific regulations to mitigate biodiversity loss and promote sustainable development in Yunnan Province. The integrated approach used in this study provides a comprehensive assessment of the tobacco-biodiversity trade-offs, offering actionable insights for policymaking.