Geography and Sustainability最新文献_第2页

Essential contribution of habitats in non-protected areas to climate-driven species migration in China 中国非保护区栖息地对气候驱动的物种迁徙的重要贡献

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.006

Jie Su , Fanhua Kong , Haiwei Yin , Michael E. Meadows , Liding Chen , Hong S. He , Hui Sun , Zhenya Li , Kejing Zhou , Bin Chen

{"title":"Essential contribution of habitats in non-protected areas to climate-driven species migration in China","authors":"Jie Su , Fanhua Kong , Haiwei Yin , Michael E. Meadows , Liding Chen , Hong S. He , Hui Sun , Zhenya Li , Kejing Zhou , Bin Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Given the reality of climate-driven migration, the net effectiveness of existing spatially fixed protected areas (PAs) to biodiversity conservation is expected to decline, while the potential of non-PA habitats (non-PAs, i.e., natural, altered, or artificial ecosystems that are not formally designated as PAs) for biodiversity conservation is gaining attention. However, the contribution of non-PAs to biodiversity conservation remains poorly understood. With the aim of comprehensively assessing the effectiveness of non-PAs as transient refugia and steppingstones during future climate-change-induced migration of species in China, a six-metric integrated framework was applied and statistics of these metrics for PAs and non-PAs are compared. Results reveal that, a greater area of non-PAs has a low velocity of climate change (VoCC) compared to that of PAs, and can therefore serve as temporary refugia for species. The disappearing climate index (DCI) and novel climate index (NCI) results show that some 17 % of the subdivided climate classes within the PAs have changed. However, the displacement index (DI) results imply that nearly half (48.98 %) of the PAs need non-PAs to provide transient refugia for climate-driven migration of species in PAs. The higher ratio of effective steppingstones measured using the climate corridor score (CCS) and landscape current flow (LCF) further emphasizes that non-PAs play a more significant role as steppingstones for climate-driven migration than do PAs in terms of both their structural and functional connectivity. Our research further demonstrates that a conservation approach that improves connectivity among PAs and considers Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) is essential for long-term biodiversity adaptation to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100203"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141713797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Non-stationary response of complex ecosystem service networks to urbanization: Evidence from a typical eco-fragile area in China

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.005

Zhen Shen , Yang Gao , Lei Wang , Zheyi Xia , Haowei Liu , Ting Deng

{"title":"Non-stationary response of complex ecosystem service networks to urbanization: Evidence from a typical eco-fragile area in China","authors":"Zhen Shen , Yang Gao , Lei Wang , Zheyi Xia , Haowei Liu , Ting Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the complex interactions between urbanization and ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for optimizing planning policies and achieving sustainable urban management. While previous research has largely focused on highly urbanized areas, little attention has been given to the phased effect of progressive urbanization on ES networks. This study proposes a conceptual framework that utilizes the network method and space-time replacement to examine the effect of urbanization on the complex relationships among ESs at different stages, with a particular emphasis on the progressive evolution of the process. We apply this framework to the Horqin area, a typical eco-fragile area in China. Results demonstrate that the connectivity of the ES synergy network exhibits a non-stationary characteristic, initially increasing, then decreasing, and subsequently strengthening. Meanwhile, its modularity shows a rising trend during periods of accelerated urbanization. The performance of the trade-off network displays the opposite pattern. Additionally, we observe a gradual replacement of provisioning and regulation services by cultural services in terms of dominance in the synergy network as urbanization advances. By providing guidance for identifying key planning initiatives and implementing ecological protection policies at different stages of development, this study contributes a pathway that can inform development strategies in other regions undergoing progressive urbanization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100214"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Extreme weather characteristics and influences on urban ecosystem services in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration 武汉城市群极端天气特征及其对城市生态系统服务的影响

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.003

Xin Dai , Lunche Wang , Jie Gong , Zigeng Niu , Qian Cao

{"title":"Extreme weather characteristics and influences on urban ecosystem services in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration","authors":"Xin Dai , Lunche Wang , Jie Gong , Zigeng Niu , Qian Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, there has been a pronounced increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. To comprehensively examine the impact of extreme weather on ecosystem services within the Wuhan Urban Agglomeration (WUA), this study utilized meteorological station data, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to quantify the variation trends in heatwaves (HW) and droughts from 1961 to 2020. Then the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was employed to evaluate and compare the differences in water yield and climate regulation ecosystem services under various HW, droughts, and HW-drought combination scenarios. The results show that over the past 60 years, the temperature, duration, and frequency of HW have significantly increased in the WUA. Specifically, the highest HW temperature, total HW days, HW frequency, and average HW temperature showed changing trend of +0.17 ℃/decade, +1.4 day/decade, +0.19 event/decade, and +0.07 ℃/decade, respectively. The year 2000 was identified as a mutation year for HW, characterized by increased frequency and heightened severity thereafter. The SPEI value exhibited an insignificant upward trend, with 1980 marked as a mutation year, indicating a decreasing trend in drought occurrences after 1980. Heatwaves have a weakening effect on both water yield and climate regulation services, while drought significantly weakened water yield and had a relatively modest effect on climate regulation. During HW-drought composite period, the average monthly water yield showed a notable discrepancy of 60 mm compared to humid years. Besides, as heatwaves intensify, the area of low aggregation for ecosystem services expands, whereas the area of high aggregation decreases. This study provides a preliminary understanding of the impact of urban extreme weather on urban ecosystem services under changing climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100201"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141706548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Smart cities, smart systems: A comprehensive review of system dynamics model applications in urban studies in the big data era

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.002

Gift Fabolude, Charles Knoble, Anvy Vu, Danlin Yu

{"title":"Smart cities, smart systems: A comprehensive review of system dynamics model applications in urban studies in the big data era","authors":"Gift Fabolude, Charles Knoble, Anvy Vu, Danlin Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses urban sustainability challenges amid global urbanization, emphasizing the need for innovative approaches aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. While traditional tools and linear models offer insights, they fall short in presenting a holistic view of complex urban challenges. System dynamics (SD) models that are often utilized to provide holistic, systematic understanding of a research subject, like the urban system, emerge as valuable tools, but data scarcity and theoretical inadequacy pose challenges. The research reviews relevant papers on recent SD model applications in urban sustainability since 2018, categorizing them based on nine key indicators. Among the reviewed papers, data limitations and model assumptions were identified as major challenges in applying SD models to urban sustainability. This led to exploring the transformative potential of big data analytics, a rare approach in this field as identified by this study, to enhance SD models’ empirical foundation. Integrating big data could provide data-driven calibration, potentially improving predictive accuracy and reducing reliance on simplified assumptions. The paper concludes by advocating for new approaches that reduce assumptions and promote real-time applicable models, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of urban sustainability through the synergy of big data and SD models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100246"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reflective thinking meets artificial intelligence: Synthesizing sustainability transition knowledge in left-behind mountain regions

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100257

Andrej Ficko , Simo Sarkki , Yasar Selman Gultekin , Antonia Egli , Juha Hiedanpää

{"title":"Reflective thinking meets artificial intelligence: Synthesizing sustainability transition knowledge in left-behind mountain regions","authors":"Andrej Ficko , Simo Sarkki , Yasar Selman Gultekin , Antonia Egli , Juha Hiedanpää","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100257","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.100257","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We demonstrate a multi-method approach towards discovering and structuring sustainability transition knowledge in marginalized mountain regions. By employing reflective thinking, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered text summarization and text mining, we synthesize experts’ narratives on sustainable development challenges and solutions in Kardüz Upland, Türkiye. We then analyze their alignment with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) using document embedding. Investment in infrastructure, education, and resilient socio-ecological systems emerged as priority sectors to combat poor infrastructure, geographic isolation, climate change, poverty, depopulation, unemployment, low education levels, and inadequate social services. The narratives were closest in substance to SDG 1, 3, and 11. Social dimensions of sustainability were more pronounced than environmental dimensions. The presented approach supports policymakers in organizing loosely structured sustainability transition knowledge and fragmented data corpora, while also advancing AI applications for designing and planning sustainable development policies at the regional level.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100257"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrating species diversity, ecosystem services, climate and ecological stability helps to improve spatial representation of protected areas for quadruple win 整合物种多样性、生态系统服务、气候和生态稳定性有助于改善保护区的空间代表性，实现四赢

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.005

Hui Dang , Yihe Lü , Xiaofeng Wang , Yunqi Hao , Bojie Fu

{"title":"Integrating species diversity, ecosystem services, climate and ecological stability helps to improve spatial representation of protected areas for quadruple win","authors":"Hui Dang , Yihe Lü , Xiaofeng Wang , Yunqi Hao , Bojie Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.06.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Establishing and maintaining protected areas is a pivotal strategy for attaining the post-2020 biodiversity target. The conservation objectives of protected areas have shifted from a narrow emphasis on biodiversity to encompass broader considerations such as ecosystem stability, community resilience to climate change, and enhancement of human well-being. Given these multifaceted objectives, it is imperative to judiciously allocate resources to effectively conserve biodiversity by identifying strategically significant areas for conservation, particularly for mountainous areas. In this study, we evaluated the representativeness of the protected area network in the Qinling Mountains concerning species diversity, ecosystem services, climate stability and ecological stability. The results indicate that some of the ecological indicators are spatially correlated with topographic gradient effects. The conservation priority areas predominantly lie in the northern foothills, the southeastern, and southwestern parts of the Qinling Mountain with areas concentrated at altitudes between 1,500<strong>–</strong>2,000 m and slopes between 40°<strong>–</strong>50° as hotspots. The conservation priority areas identified through the framework of inclusive conservation optimization account for 22.9 % of the Qinling Mountain. Existing protected areas comprise only 6.1 % of the Qinling Mountain and 13.18 % of the conservation priority areas. This will play an important role in achieving sustainable development in the region and in meeting the post-2020 biodiversity target. The framework can advance the different objectives of achieving a quadruple win and can also be extended to other regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100205"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141850528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effect of food value-chain connections on land-use change

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.003

P.M. Post , Y. Dou , A. Nelson

{"title":"Effect of food value-chain connections on land-use change","authors":"P.M. Post , Y. Dou , A. Nelson","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Changes in food production, often driven by distant demand, have a significant influence on sustainable management and use of land and water, and are in turn a driving factor of biodiversity change. While the connection between land use and demand through value chains is increasingly understood, there is no comprehensive conceptualisation of this relationship. To address this gap, we propose a conceptual framework and use it as a basis for a systematic review to characterise value-chain connection and explore its influence on land-use and -cover change. Our search in June 2022 on Web of Science and Scopus yielded 198 documents, describing studies completed after the year 2000 that provide information on both value-chain connection and land-use or -cover change. In total, we used 531 distinct cases to assess how frequently particular types of land-use or -cover change and value-chain connections co-occurred, and synthesized findings on their relations. Our findings confirm that 1) market integration is associated with intensification; 2) land managers with environmental standards more frequently adopt environmentally friendly practices; 3) physical and value-chain distances to consumers play a crucial role, with shorter distances associated with environmentally friendly practices and global chains linked to intensification and expansion. Incorporating these characteristics in existing theories of land-system change, would significantly advance understanding of land managers’ decision-making, ultimately guiding more environmentally responsible production systems and contributing to global sustainability goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100247"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Geospatial monitoring and analysis of agricultural drought to identify hotspots and risk assessment for Senegal

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.004

Gurjeet Singh , Narendra N. Das , P.V. Vara Prasad

{"title":"Geospatial monitoring and analysis of agricultural drought to identify hotspots and risk assessment for Senegal","authors":"Gurjeet Singh , Narendra N. Das , P.V. Vara Prasad","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.10.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agricultural drought, characterized by insufficient soil moisture crucial for crop growth, poses significant challenges to food security and economic sustainability, particularly in water-scarce regions like Senegal. This study addresses this issue by developing a comprehensive geospatial monitoring system for agricultural drought using the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS). This system, with a high-resolution of 0.05°, effectively simulates daily soil moisture and generates the Soil Moisture Deficit Index (SMDI)-based agricultural drought monitoring. The SMDI derived from the RHEAS has effectively captured historical droughts in Senegal over the recent 30 years period from 1993 to 2022. The SMDI, also provides a comprehensive understanding of regional variations in drought severity (S), duration (D), and frequency (F), through S-D-F analysis to identify key drought hotspots across Senegal. Findings reveal a distinct north-south gradient in drought conditions, with the northern and central Senegal experiencing more frequent and severe droughts. The study highlights that Senegal experiences frequent short-duration droughts with high severity, resulting in extensive spatial impact. Additionally, increasing trends in drought severity and duration suggest evolving climate change effects. These findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable interventions to mitigate drought impacts on agricultural productivity. Specifically, the study identifies recurrent and intense drought hotspots affecting yields of staple crops like maize and rice, as well as cash crops like peanuts. The developed high-resolution drought monitoring system for Senegal not only identifies hotspots but also enables prioritizing sustainable approaches and adaptive strategies, ultimately sustaining agricultural productivity and resilience in Senegal’s drought-prone regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100248"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Declining suitability for conversion of drylands to paddy fields in Northeast China: Impact of future climate and socio-economic changes 中国东北地区旱地改水田的适宜性下降：未来气候和社会经济变化的影响

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.004

Jiacheng Qian , Huafu Zhao , Xiaoxiao Wang , Tao Wang , Zhe Feng , Congjie Cao , Xiao Li , Aihui Zhang

{"title":"Declining suitability for conversion of drylands to paddy fields in Northeast China: Impact of future climate and socio-economic changes","authors":"Jiacheng Qian , Huafu Zhao , Xiaoxiao Wang , Tao Wang , Zhe Feng , Congjie Cao , Xiao Li , Aihui Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Conversion of dryland to paddy fields (CDPF) is an effective way to transition from rain-fed to irrigated agriculture, helping to mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture and increase yields to meet growing food demand. However, the suitability of CDPF is spatio-temporally dynamic but has often been neglected in previous studies. To fill this knowledge gap, this research developed a novel method for quantifying the suitability of CDPF, based on the MaxEnt model for application in Northeast China. We explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of the suitability of CDPF under the baseline scenario (2010–2020), and future projections (2030–2090) coupled with climate change and socioeconomic development scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), and revealed the driving factors behind it. Based on this, we identified potential priority areas for future CDPF implementation. The results show that the suitability of CDPF projects implemented in the past ten years is relatively high. Compared with the baseline scenario, the suitability of CDPF under the future scenarios will decline overall, with the lightest decrease in the RCP585 and the most severe decrease in the RCP245. The key drivers affecting the suitability of CDPF are elevation, slope, population count, total nitrogen, soil organic carbon content, and precipitation seasonality. The potential priority areas for the future CDPF range from 6,284.61 km<sup>2</sup> to 37,006.02 km<sup>2</sup>. These findings demonstrate the challenges of CDPF in adapting to climate change and food security, and provide insights for food-producing regions around the world facing climate crises.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100199"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141716496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学

Geography and Sustainability Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.008

Haoyu Wang , Xiuyuan Zhang , Shihong Du , Yuyu Zhou , Donghai Wu , Qian Wang , Lubin Bai , Bo Liu , Shuping Xiong

{"title":"Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario","authors":"Haoyu Wang , Xiuyuan Zhang , Shihong Du , Yuyu Zhou , Donghai Wu , Qian Wang , Lubin Bai , Bo Liu , Shuping Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.geosus.2024.07.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The gap between the projected urban areas in the current trend (UAC) and those in the sustainable scenario (UAS) is a critical factor in understanding whether cities can fulfill the requirements of sustainable development. However, there is a paucity of knowledge on this cutting-edge topic. Given the extensive and rapid urbanization in the United States (U.S.) over the past two centuries, accurately measuring this gap between UAS and UAC is of critical importance for advancing future sustainable urban development, as well as having significant global implications. This study finds that although the 740 U.S. cities have a large UAC in 2100, these cities will encompass a significant gap from UAC to UAS (approximately 165,000 km²), accounting for 30 % UAC at that time. The study also reveals the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the gap. The gap initially increases before reaching a inflection point in 2090, and it disparates greatly from −100 % to 240 % at city level. While cities in the Northwestern U.S. maintain UAC that exceeds UAS from 2020 to 2100, cities in other regions shift from UAC that exceeds UAS to UAC that falls short of UAS. Filling the gap without additional urban growth planning could lead to a reduction of crop production ranging from 0.3 % to 3 % and a 0.68 % loss of biomass. Hence, dynamic and forward-looking urban planning is essential for addressing the challenges of sustainable development posed by urbanization, both within the U.S. and globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52374,"journal":{"name":"Geography and Sustainability","volume":"6 1","pages":"Article 100217"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143139296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0