IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090252

Takawira Munyaradzi Ndofirepi

引用次数: 0

Quantifying Loss to the Economy Using Interrupted Time Series Models: An Application to the Wholesale and Retail Sales Industries in South Africa 利用中断时间序列模型量化经济损失：南非批发和零售业的应用

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090249

Thabiso Ernest Masena, Sandile Charles Shongwe, Ali Yeganeh

{"title":"Quantifying Loss to the Economy Using Interrupted Time Series Models: An Application to the Wholesale and Retail Sales Industries in South Africa","authors":"Thabiso Ernest Masena, Sandile Charles Shongwe, Ali Yeganeh","doi":"10.3390/economies12090249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090249","url":null,"abstract":"A few recent publications on interrupted time series analysis only conduct preintervention modelling and use it to illustrate postintervention deviation without quantifying the amount lost during the intervention period. Thus, this study aims to illustrate how to estimate and quantify the actual amounts (in South African Rands—ZAR) that the negative impact of the intervention effects of the COVID-19 pandemic had on the South African total monthly wholesale and retail sales using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) with exogenous components (SARIMAX) model. In addition, the SARIMAX model is supplemented with three approaches for interrupted time series fitting (also known as a pulse function covariate vector), which are: (i) trial and error, (ii) quotient of fitted values and actual values, and (iii) a constant value of 1 throughout the intervention period. Model selection and adequacy metrics indicate that fitting a pulse function with a trial-and-error approach produces estimates with the minimum errors on both datasets, so a more accurate loss in revenue in the economy can be approximated. Consequently, using the latter method, the pandemic had an immediate, severe negative impact on wholesale trade sales, lasting for 15 months (from March 2020 to May 2021) and resulted in a loss of ZAR 302,339 million in the economy. Moreover, the retail sales were also negatively affected, but for 8 months (from March 2020 to October 2020), with a 1-month lag or delay, suggesting the series felt the negative effects of the pandemic one month into the intervention period and resulted in a loss of ZAR 87,836 million in the economy.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142249851","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

What Determines the Crime Rate? A Macroeconomic Case Study 是什么决定了犯罪率？宏观经济案例研究

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090250

Tomas Karpavicius, Andriy Stavytskyy, Vincentas Rolandas Giedraitis, Erstida Ulvidienė, Ganna Kharlamova, Brigita Kavaliauskaite

{"title":"What Determines the Crime Rate? A Macroeconomic Case Study","authors":"Tomas Karpavicius, Andriy Stavytskyy, Vincentas Rolandas Giedraitis, Erstida Ulvidienė, Ganna Kharlamova, Brigita Kavaliauskaite","doi":"10.3390/economies12090250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090250","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the relationship between economic indicators and crime rates in six European countries: Lithuania, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Finland and Sweden. By examining macroeconomic factors such as GDP, security spending and per capita consumption, the study aims to understand how these variables affect crime dynamics. Using robust econometric techniques, including panel regression with fixed effects, the study identifies significant correlations and patterns. The findings reveal that the crime rate has a high degree of inertia and is significantly influenced by the previous level. Contrary to expectations, increased per capita consumption is associated with higher crime rates, which may indicate that wealthier societies are experiencing an increase in economic crime. Furthermore, higher spending on security does not necessarily reduce crime, suggesting that types of crime evolve as detection capabilities improve. This study highlights the complexity of the nexus between crime and the economy, highlighting the need for multifaceted, long-term policies to effectively combat crime and increase public safety. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers to develop comprehensive crime prevention and economic development strategies.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142249762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Contribution of Green, Blue, and Energy Sources to Economic Development in Central Asia 绿色、蓝色和能源对中亚经济发展的贡献

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090251

Massimiliano Caporin, Bekhzod Kuziboev, Ergash Ibadullaev, Elbek Khodjaniyazov, Peter Marty, Olimjon Saidmamatov

引用次数: 0

Accessibility and Older and Foreign Populations: Exploring Local Spatial Heterogeneities across Italy 交通便利与老年人口和外国人口：探索意大利各地的空间异质性

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090248

Massimo Armenise, Federico Benassi, Maria Carella, Roberta Misuraca

{"title":"Accessibility and Older and Foreign Populations: Exploring Local Spatial Heterogeneities across Italy","authors":"Massimo Armenise, Federico Benassi, Maria Carella, Roberta Misuraca","doi":"10.3390/economies12090248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090248","url":null,"abstract":"The interplay between accessibility and population change is a relatively new subject in Italian academic research. Along with social and economic factors such as regional economic prosperity, the ease of movement inside and outside an area can play a pivotal role in shaping population dynamics. This study seeks to explore the spatial distribution and spatial relationships of three indicators, including one related to real accessibility (RAI) and two others related, respectively, to the shares of the older population (SOP) and of the foreign population (SFP). An exploratory spatial data analysis is, therefore, conducted at the local level using Italian municipalities as the statistical units for the empirical analysis. Local univariate spatial autocorrelation analysis is used together with a regression analysis based on ordinary least squares (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. The results provide valuable insights into the local heterogeneity that characterizes the distribution of each indicator and the local relationship between them, highlighting the importance of thinking locally in quantitative social sciences.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142249764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sustainable Development of Small Business in Kazakhstan 哈萨克斯坦小型企业的可持续发展

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090247

Venera Zarubina, Mikhail Zarubin, Zhaukhar Yessenkulova, Tursyngul Gumarova, Almira Daulbayeva, Zhuldyz Meimankulova, Aizhan Kurmangalieva

{"title":"Sustainable Development of Small Business in Kazakhstan","authors":"Venera Zarubina, Mikhail Zarubin, Zhaukhar Yessenkulova, Tursyngul Gumarova, Almira Daulbayeva, Zhuldyz Meimankulova, Aizhan Kurmangalieva","doi":"10.3390/economies12090247","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090247","url":null,"abstract":"The small business sector in Kazakhstan demonstrates dynamic growth, but its sustainable development in modern conditions requires activation from government agencies, society and entrepreneurs themselves. The purpose of the article was to study the development of small entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan and develop a mechanism for sustainable development based on network interaction “business entities–society–state” with the identification of priority areas of development based on a rating approach. The methods of bibliographic analysis of scientific literature, statistical, correlation analysis, survey, comparative analysis and ranking based on data normalization were used. The results revealed the need to formalize indicators of sustainable development of the small business sector in strategic development programs; create conditions, support, explain the importance and prospects of investing in sustainable innovations by small businesses and form a balanced strategy for achieving carbon neutrality based on network interaction “business entities–society–state” with the identification of priority areas of development based on a rating approach to ensure transparency and publicity of decisions made. Conclusions were made about the need to popularize sustainable development among business entities, stimulate investment activity through government participation, enact legislative regulation of public presentation of non-financial reporting, and assist society in the formation of an ESG culture.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142249765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

“Optimal Honesty” in the Context of Fiscal Crimes 财政犯罪背景下的 "最佳诚信"

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090242

Lory Barile, John Cullis, Philip Jones

引用次数: 0

Demand and Nutrient Elasticities of Egg Consumption: Evidence from Saudi Arabia 鸡蛋消费的需求和营养弹性：沙特阿拉伯的证据

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090245

Dana Alsaad, Mohammed Al-Mahish

{"title":"Demand and Nutrient Elasticities of Egg Consumption: Evidence from Saudi Arabia","authors":"Dana Alsaad, Mohammed Al-Mahish","doi":"10.3390/economies12090245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090245","url":null,"abstract":"Chicken eggs are a staple food widely consumed directly or indirectly (as an ingredient in other food items) in Saudi Arabia. Due to the importance of eggs in Saudi consumers’ diet, this study aimed to determine the sociodemographic factors affecting Saudi consumer demand for eggs and how changes in egg prices and consumer income may influence dietary intake derived from eggs. This study analyzes survey data from 466 respondents. We used a double-log demand model to obtain the price and income elasticities of egg demand. The results show that the price elasticity of egg demand is negative and inelastic, indicating that changes in egg price have a small influence on egg demand. Additionally, income elasticity is positive and <1, implying that eggs are a necessary food item. Cross-price elasticities show that cheese and milk complement egg consumption. Meanwhile, cornflakes (a breakfast cereal) were found to be a good substitute for eggs. Furthermore, the results show that consumer demand for eggs is expected to increase as household size increases. Women exhibited a higher demand for eggs, compared with men. Nutrient income elasticity shows that an increase in consumer income increases protein, fat, and calorie intake from eggs. Nutrient price elasticity shows that an increase in egg price has the greatest negative influence on protein intake, resulting from a decrease in egg consumption. This study recommends that decision makers actively monitor egg prices and take all necessary actions to prevent spikes in egg prices, as this will improve nutritional and food security and help consumers maintain a stable protein intake from egg consumption.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Corruption’s Crossroads: Exploring Firm Performance and Auditors’ Role in Emerging Markets 腐败的十字路口：探索新兴市场的公司业绩与审计师的作用

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090239

Sheela Sundarasen, Izani Ibrahim, Ahnaf Ali Alsmady, Tanaraj Krishna

{"title":"Corruption’s Crossroads: Exploring Firm Performance and Auditors’ Role in Emerging Markets","authors":"Sheela Sundarasen, Izani Ibrahim, Ahnaf Ali Alsmady, Tanaraj Krishna","doi":"10.3390/economies12090239","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090239","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the relationship between country-level corruption (proxied by the Corruption Perception Index, CPI) and firm performance (measured by Return on Assets, ROA) across 18,286 firms in the East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia regions. Additionally, the moderating effects of audit quality (proxied by auditors’ reputation) on the relationship are examined. The findings of the study indicate a positive association between corruption and ROA in high-income nations, thus providing evidence in favor of the “greasing the wheel” theory. On the other hand, a negative association is documented in the upper middle- and low-income nations, which is consistent with the “sanding the wheel” notion. Notably, audit quality has a positive moderating influence on the relationship between corruption and ROA, especially in nations with low corruption levels, reaffirming the pivotal role of reputable auditors in enhancing firm performance within these economic contexts. The results of this study have important ramifications for forming policy suggestions and enhancing governance. The findings highlight the opportunity to improve governance practices and regulations to reduce corruption and increase transparency. Policymakers can develop ways to strengthen institutional frameworks by recognizing the complex link between corruption, corporate profitability, and the function of respected auditors.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is the Nexus between Gender Diversity and Firm Financial Distress Moderated by CEO Duality? 首席执行官双重性是否调节了性别多样性与公司财务困境之间的联系？

IF 2.6

Economies Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.3390/economies12090240

Muhammad Tahir Khan, Waqar Ahmad, Sajjad Nawaz Khan, Valentin Marian Antohi, Costinela Fortea, Monica Laura Zlati

{"title":"Is the Nexus between Gender Diversity and Firm Financial Distress Moderated by CEO Duality?","authors":"Muhammad Tahir Khan, Waqar Ahmad, Sajjad Nawaz Khan, Valentin Marian Antohi, Costinela Fortea, Monica Laura Zlati","doi":"10.3390/economies12090240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/economies12090240","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impact of gender diversity in the positions of board commissioners, executive directors, and audit committee members on the financial performance of firms experiencing financial trouble. It also evaluates whether the presence of a CEO with multiple responsibilities moderates this relationship. The analysis encompassed 224 publicly traded companies from the non-financial sector, spanning the years 2012 to 2021. The study employed the dynamic panel model system GMM to address issues of endogeneity, simultaneity, and heterogeneity in the data. The findings indicate that the presence of women on supervisory boards and in senior positions has a substantial impact. Companies with a higher number of female board members have reduced financial hardship among Malaysian listed enterprises. Female directors exhibit a greater level of caution and risk aversion while participating in management choices, which is a significant conclusion. Research indicates that the majority of financial variables are inherently endogenous, so dynamic models are better suited for analyzing the interaction between these variables. This study also presents the notable correlation between gender diversity on boards of management, CEO duality, and financial difficulty.","PeriodicalId":52214,"journal":{"name":"Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142207798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economies最新文献