Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management最新文献_第10页

Learn traffic as a signal: Using ensemble empirical mode decomposition to enhance short-term passenger flow prediction in metro systems 将交通作为信号学习:利用集合经验模态分解增强地铁系统短期客流预测

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100311

Cong Xiu , Yichen Sun , Qiyuan Peng , Cheng Chen , Xunquan Yu

{"title":"Learn traffic as a signal: Using ensemble empirical mode decomposition to enhance short-term passenger flow prediction in metro systems","authors":"Cong Xiu , Yichen Sun , Qiyuan Peng , Cheng Chen , Xunquan Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span><span>Due to the complex temporal dependency and various external factors, it is challenging to capture its nonlinear and unsteady trends accurately. In addition, there are several inevitable errors in the traffic sensor record, including bias and noise. However, most recent works regard the record data as exact input ignoring the effect of unknown errors. In this research, a novel framework that integrates Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method and the Bidirectional Gate </span>Recurrent<span> Units (BiGRU) model was proposed to eliminate noise and enhance short-term prediction. The proposed model is mainly divided into three stages. Firstly, the EEMD algorithm adaptively decomposes the nonlinear and non-steady passenger flow signal into several sub-signals, which share more straightforward fluctuation trends and higher correlation coefficients<span> in the preprocessing stage<span>. Secondly, in the feature recognition and extraction stage, knowledge of the transportation field and statistical theories are applied to analyze and extract the critical decomposed components. Finally, in the prediction stage, the stacked BiGRU can learn and extract information from the input features in both directions and use a multi-step prediction to output the final prediction result. A real dataset of the Chengdu metro system is included in our experiments. The experimental results reveal that the proposed EEMD-BiGRU model's prediction performance exceeds all benchmark models. The </span></span></span></span>Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the proposed model is reduced by up to 28.29% compared to a single GRU model without EEMD preprocessing. Also, experiments show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method for predicting short-term passenger flow in metro systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100311"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80713166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Modeling train route decisions during track works 轨道工程中列车路线决策建模

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100320

Basil Schmid , Felix Becker , Joseph Molloy , Kay W. Axhausen , Jochen Lüdering , Julian Hagen , Annette Blome

{"title":"Modeling train route decisions during track works","authors":"Basil Schmid , Felix Becker , Joseph Molloy , Kay W. Axhausen , Jochen Lüdering , Julian Hagen , Annette Blome","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100320","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100320","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To better understand the choice behavior of train route schedulers and to predict their choices for optimizing the annual construction schedule, prospective data for 2020 on train route decisions are analyzed using discrete choice models and machine learning classifiers. The choice alternatives include (i) partial cancellation of the train schedule at the start, (ii) in the middle or (iii) at the end of the itinerary of the train service, (iv) detour and (v) delay/ahead of time, and are modeled using 39 train-, construction site-, and infrastructure variables. The top nine attributes account for about 80% of variable importance, including the travel time from the departure station to the construction site, total or line closure, travel time from the construction site to the terminus, length of the train and effective line capacity.</p><p>The models are tested for 2021 and 2022 to verify whether they can be used to forecast choices in the following years. While Random Forest performs best in terms of prediction accuracy (2021: 60.8%; 2022: 58.6%), the improvements of about 6%-points compared to the Mixed Logit model are modest. Results indicate that a substantial amount of unobserved construction site heterogeneity is present, which Random Forest cannot capture either.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100320"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210970622000221/pdfft?md5=d0461bebf41839bca579a56ca384d9bb&pid=1-s2.0-S2210970622000221-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85417885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Optimizing and synchronizing timetable in an urban subway network with stop-skip strategy 基于停跳策略的城市地铁网络时刻表优化与同步

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100301

Homa Motvallian Naeini, Yousef Shafahi, Mohammad SafariTaherkhani

{"title":"Optimizing and synchronizing timetable in an urban subway network with stop-skip strategy","authors":"Homa Motvallian Naeini, Yousef Shafahi, Mohammad SafariTaherkhani","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100301","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100301","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Stop-skipping and timetable synchronization are two effective strategies to reduce total passengers’ travel time in a transit network for </span>subway<span> operation. However, the majority of studies conducted on the topic do not consider stop-skipping strategy and timetable synchronization simultaneously. Thus, this article proposes a mixed-integer programming model considering both strategies simultaneously. The model is based on passenger smart-card data concerning the trains’ capacity to minimize total passengers’ waiting time and in-vehicle time and maximize the number of passengers who successfully reach their destination in a specific study horizon. Since increasing the number of trains, stations, or the study horizon, exponentially increases the size of the problem, seeking efficient methods to solve real-sized problems is inevitable. Therefore, a heuristic algorithm based<span> on a genetic algorithm (GA) was developed to solve the model. A hypothetical example was solved with GAMS (CPLEX) in order to evaluate the performance of both the model and the used algorithm. Then, the results were compared with the results of GA. Finally, a large-scale, real-life case study based on Tehran rail transit network was used to evaluate the proposed models in this study and the genetic algorithm approach. The results indicated that the proposed model reduced each passenger’s travel time by approximately 4.78%, on average, and it also reduced each passenger’s transfer waiting time by approximately 32.4%, on average in a peak hour. Finally, it maximized the number of passengers who reached their destination successfully in the considered study horizon.</span></span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100301"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75499540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 5

A modelling and simulation study of a metro line as a time-delayed switched system 地铁线路延时切换系统的建模与仿真研究

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100318

Berkin Birol, Ali Fuat Ergenç

{"title":"A modelling and simulation study of a metro line as a time-delayed switched system","authors":"Berkin Birol, Ali Fuat Ergenç","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>In public transportation systems, there is a linear relationship between the passenger quantities in a station and the headway of the vehicles. An optimized headway is beneficial for both passenger satisfaction and cost reduction, since reducing the headway will increase operational costs. The headway update starts from the first station and propagates to the other stations with a time delay<span>, τ, originating from the train's travel time between the first station and the affected station. A well-defined model of the passenger quantities in the transportation line is required for tuning the headway efficiently. In this study, the transportation system is considered as a switched time-delayed system since the change in passenger quantities is dependent on the state of a train arriving at the station and travel time is a pure delay between stations. A sample metro line has been modelled as a switched time-delayed system and simulated on MATLAB Simulink® utilizing real-world data provided by Metro Istanbul. The results of the simulations of this new model have been compared to the traditional </span></span>discrete event simulations of the Arena®. Both results were consistent and the simulation based on our switched time-delayed system mathematical model was significantly faster and dynamically adjustable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100318"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88995802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

A review of train delay prediction approaches 列车延误预测方法综述

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100312

Thomas Spanninger , Alessio Trivella , Beda Büchel , Francesco Corman

{"title":"A review of train delay prediction approaches","authors":"Thomas Spanninger , Alessio Trivella , Beda Büchel , Francesco Corman","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Railway operations are vulnerable to delays. Accurate predictions of train arrival and departure delays improve the passenger service quality and are essential for real-time railway traffic management to minimise their further spreading. This review provides a synoptic overview and discussion covering the breadth of diverse approaches to predict train delays. We first categorise research contributions based on their underlying modelling paradigm (data-driven and event-driven) and their mathematical model. We then distinguish between very short to long-term predictions and classify different input data sources that have been considered in the literature. We further discuss advantages and disadvantages of producing deterministic versus stochastic predictions, the applicability of different approaches during disruptions and their interpretability. By comparing the results of the included contributions, we can indicate that the prediction error generally increases when broadening the prediction horizon. We find that data-driven approaches might have the edge on event-driven approaches in terms of prediction accuracy, whereas event-driven approaches that explicitly model the dynamics and dependencies of railway traffic have their strength in providing interpretable predictions, and are more robust concerning disruption scenarios. The growing availability of railway operations data is expected to increase the appeal of big-data and </span>machine learning methods.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100312"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137151070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimating aggregate railway performance from realized empirical data: Literature review, a test case and a research roadmap 从已实现的实证数据估计铁路总体绩效:文献综述、测试案例和研究路线图

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100316

Francesco Corman, Jonas Henken

{"title":"Estimating aggregate railway performance from realized empirical data: Literature review, a test case and a research roadmap","authors":"Francesco Corman, Jonas Henken","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Railway operations are organized according to a complex interplay of resources and according to a rigid time separation of train runs over infrastructure elements. The system dynamics are complex, and span in time and space. We use in this work the concepts of macroscopic fundamental diagrams, or more in general the analysis in a density-flow-speed diagram, to analyse and describe realized railway operations.</p><p>Specifically, we review the state of the art in aggregated models of railway performance. We illustrate a possible application by means of a test case. We consider realized railway operations, aggregated on a railway line with heterogeneous traffic, as measured in a set of stations. We use a density-flow-speed diagram to represent the recorded operations, similar to the concepts of macroscopic fundamental diagram or network fundamental diagram. In this sense, it is a first try to estimate a macroscopic relationship, from realized data based on heterogeneous railway services with different stopping patterns.</p><p>The analyses show the challenges of aggregate operations for different railway stretches, from realized data. We report what is the influence of delays, represented in those diagrams by a shift of the operating point. Future promising directions of research are concluded from the analysis.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100316"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210970622000191/pdfft?md5=404dac33805b9c7677864954ef7e0978&pid=1-s2.0-S2210970622000191-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72879868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Modelling and analysis of Virtual Coupling with dynamic safety margin considering risk factors in railway operations 考虑风险因素的铁路运营动态安全裕度虚拟耦合建模与分析

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100313

Egidio Quaglietta , Panagiotis Spartalis , Meng Wang , Rob M.P. Goverde , Paul van Koningsbruggen

{"title":"Modelling and analysis of Virtual Coupling with dynamic safety margin considering risk factors in railway operations","authors":"Egidio Quaglietta , Panagiotis Spartalis , Meng Wang , Rob M.P. Goverde , Paul van Koningsbruggen","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100313","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100313","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To address the ever-growing rail transport demand, the concept of Virtual Coupling train operations is gradually gaining ground within the railway industry. Thanks to a Vehicle-to-Vehicle communication, trains could be separated by less than an absolute braking distance and even form connected platoons to increase capacity at bottlenecks. However, a major concern about this concept regards the risk of safety violations in case of operational hazards pertaining to delays in train communication and control or emergency train stops. In this paper, the notion of dynamic safety margin is introduced for Virtual Coupling to dynamically adjust train separations so to always keep required safety distances also when hazardous operational events occur. The dynamic safety margin is embedded in a multi-state train-following model to analyse Virtual Coupling operations in presence of operational risk factors. A three-step methodology is applied in a real case study to fine-tune and verify the model, perform a sensitivity analysis, and identify capacity gains in several test scenarios including nominal and degraded traffic conditions. Results show that the use of a dynamic safety margin provides substantial capacity benefits to Virtual Coupling while respecting safe train distances even in case of sudden failures of the train control or communication systems. The notion of a dynamic safety margin can hence contribute to a safer version of Virtual Coupling operations and be considered by the railway industry in defining system requirements.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100313"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210970622000178/pdfft?md5=0422870398d9b3dbec3c0ad1629fd3f3&pid=1-s2.0-S2210970622000178-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79850848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 16

Intelligent-PID controller design for speed track in automatic train operation system with heuristic algorithms 启发式算法设计列车自动运行系统中速度轨道的智能pid控制器

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100321

Pedram Havaei, Mohammad Ali Sandidzadeh

{"title":"Intelligent-PID controller design for speed track in automatic train operation system with heuristic algorithms","authors":"Pedram Havaei, Mohammad Ali Sandidzadeh","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100321","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100321","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, the problem of speed tracing for automatic train operation is studied. A new Intelligent-PID controller is proposed in which four optimization algorithms<span><span>: Genetic Algorithm (GA), </span>Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Differential Evolution (DE), and Imperium Colony Algorithm (ICA) for the best parameter tuning with the integration of a novel switching function are used. The algorithms are analyzed and specialized for different driving modes including: acceleration, cruising, braking and speed profile shift. By the use of a switch, the PID controller is tuned according to the best algorithm. The switching action is done through a slight change from the current position to the best values by transient values determined by the other algorithm outputs. The simulation results indicate the excellence of the proposed method. The performance of the suggested structure is compared with a single-mode optimization algorithm without use of the switch. The results of the comparison show that the proposed method can track the trajectory on all driving modes with very high accuracy.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87405192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 6

Optimization of urban rail transit station spacing for minimizing passenger travel time 城市轨道交通车站间距优化，以减少乘客出行时间

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100317

Qiannan Wu , Yang Li , Pengrui Dan

{"title":"Optimization of urban rail transit station spacing for minimizing passenger travel time","authors":"Qiannan Wu , Yang Li , Pengrui Dan","doi":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>Urban rail transit, regarded as the backbone of urban public transportation, can effectively solve the problems of urban traffic congestion and automobile exhaust pollution. However, due to improper planning, unreasonable station location often appears, which seriously affects the service access and mobility of rail transit. In order to improve the station spacing and passenger transport<span> efficiency, a calculation model of station spacing for minimizing passenger travel time was established. In order to enhance the adaptability of the model in different cities, the grid </span></span>road network and radial road network are considered when establishing the model. The results show that the station spacing is related to the passenger access/egress speed, the passenger travel distance, the maximum train running speed, the train stop time and the train acceleration. The influence of these parameters on the station spacing is obtained through the control variate method, and there are indeed obvious differences under different road network conditions. The research results can provide theoretical reference for station planning of new lines. Since the station spacing of the operated lines cannot be changed, this study can provide reference for skip-stop operation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51821,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management","volume":"22 ","pages":"Article 100317"},"PeriodicalIF":3.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83493607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

Timetable optimization for a moving block system 移动街区系统的时间表优化

IF 3.7

Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jrtpm.2022.100315

Thomas Schlechte , Ralf Borndörfer , Jonas Denißen , Simon Heller , Torsten Klug , Michael Küpper , Niels Lindner , Markus Reuther , Andreas Söhlke , William Steadman

引用次数: 5