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The Wagner Revolt: Implications for Russia, Lessons for the West 瓦格纳起义:对俄罗斯的启示，对西方的教训
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239053
Nigel Gould-Davies
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引用次数: 0
Getting China Right 正确对待中国
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239057
S. Tsang
{"title":"Getting China Right","authors":"S. Tsang","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239057","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Under Xi Jinping, China puts regime security and a revived ideology, ‘Xi Thought’, at the core of its foreign policy. This distorts how ‘national interest’ is calculated and impedes China from behaving in the way neoclassical realism suggests a rising superpower would behave. Xi adheres to a China-first approach. The United States and its partners could respond more effectively to China’s conduct in three main ways. Firstly, they could stop framing their competition with China as one of democracy versus authoritarianism, as this has limited appeal for the Global South. Secondly, insofar as Xi’s approach is often not conducive to his stated goals for his ‘China dream’, the US could allow him to undermine them himself. Finally, the US could adopt a foreign policy of putting the interests of the global community first, as it effectively did during the Cold War, such that America’s allies would be more willing to support the United States over China in a crisis, and other countries less prone to taking sides against the US.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80962801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Intelligence, Strategy and Governance in the Twenty-first Century 二十一世纪的情报、战略与治理
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239065
M. Reiss
{"title":"Intelligence, Strategy and Governance in the Twenty-first Century","authors":"M. Reiss","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239065","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In Decision Advantage: Intelligence in International Politics from the Spanish Armada to Cyberwar, Jennifer E. Sims seeks to correct popular misconceptions of how espionage operates and rebut the views of those who dismiss its importance in international politics. Examining several well-documented historical cases, she argues that intelligence is widely misunderstood, on the common assumption that it consists of only what intelligence institutions do. With this in mind, she concludes that the proper goal of a government in utilising intelligence should be ‘the orchestration of intelligence in light of the competitive moment’ – ‘orchestration’ being a two-way street where communications pass up and down the chain between decision-makers and intelligence professionals, whom she believes should be encouraged to express strong views. Sims understands that an intelligence community reflects the strengths and weaknesses of the society it represents, and the abilities of the officials appointed to manage it and elected to oversee it. But she remains cautiously optimistic, providing an erudite road map for how ‘decision advantage’ can be realised.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74061052","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to Think About State Sponsorship of Terrorism 如何看待国家支持恐怖主义
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239060
D. Byman
{"title":"How to Think About State Sponsorship of Terrorism","authors":"D. Byman","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239060","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract States usually support terrorist groups to weaken their rivals, silence their opponents and give themselves options they otherwise lack. By providing weapons, training, a sanctuary and other support, states can make terrorist groups more deadly, increasing their skill and survivability. At the same time, states often impose constraints on their proxies, creating many difficulties for the terrorists. Iran and other enemies of the United States and its allies have long supported terrorists, and state sponsorship is likely to play a role in any continued confrontation with Russia, which may double down on existing ties to extremists given its humiliation in Ukraine and desire for revenge on its enemies. Confronting state sponsors of terrorism is difficult, however. For democracies, applying a ‘state sponsor’ label can be a powerful rhetorical, legal and policy tool. At the same time, it can often be misused, become an empty political gesture or even backfire. The ‘state sponsor’ label is highly politicised, and long-standing sponsors like Pakistan have avoided it. Clarifying what state sponsorship is, increasing the flexibility of the designation, giving policymakers more leeway on when to impose sanctions, and otherwise knowing how to better combat a state sponsor is vital.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87974304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
David P. Calleo, 1934–2023
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239076
Dana H. Allin, J. Harper
{"title":"David P. Calleo, 1934–2023","authors":"Dana H. Allin, J. Harper","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239076","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The late David P. Calleo was a long-standing contributing editor to Survival and one of the most original and multifaceted scholars of his generation. An American himself, he became known as a critic of US imperial overstretch, arguing that the US hegemonic role threatened the equilibrium of both the world system and the American domestic political economy. Yet his critique embedded a deep appreciation for America’s early post-war engagements, especially in Europe. He believed Europe needed more centralised diplomatic and military structures to cultivate greater strategic autonomy, while the US system of centralised federal hegemony was increasingly dysfunctional – in effect, that Europe needed to become more like America, and America more like Europe. Calleo warned against the pitfalls of the triumphalist ‘unipolar’ world view, including the rapid enlargement of NATO with scant regard for Russian interests.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87847429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to End a War: Some Historical Lessons for Ukraine 如何结束一场战争:乌克兰的一些历史教训
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2233347
F. Heisbourg
{"title":"How to End a War: Some Historical Lessons for Ukraine","authors":"F. Heisbourg","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2233347","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2233347","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Russia has failed to achieve its stated purpose of taking political control of Ukraine, but still appears able to sustain the war at its current level. There is no prospect that the West will recognise de jure the annexation of Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk or Zaporizhia as part of Russia. Within the West, however, disagreement may arise on the means, pace or conditions of the restoration of full territorial integrity. If Ukraine’s counter-offensive yields meaningful gains, Ukraine and its Western partners might consider a dispensation analogous to the ‘Adenauer option’ whereby the West German chancellor deferred the reunification of Germany and secured strong security guarantees for West Germany through its membership in NATO and integration into Europe’s security architecture. Ukraine would foreswear the use of force to recover Crimea while being fast-tracked into NATO. Russia would remain the de facto occupying power in Crimea and tolerate Ukrainian membership in NATO.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81033391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geopolitics and Climate Change: The Significance of South America 地缘政治与气候变化:南美洲的重要性
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239062
Juan Pablo Medina Bickel, Irene Mia
{"title":"Geopolitics and Climate Change: The Significance of South America","authors":"Juan Pablo Medina Bickel, Irene Mia","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239062","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Amazon region is home to nearly half of the world’s tropical forests, which are key to carbon absorption, and the continent has abundant reserves of minerals critical for the energy transition and the development of low-carbon technologies, notably lithium. If skilfully deployed, South America’s rising importance for global climate mitigation and energy transition could engender more sustainable economic models at home, as well as reinforce its clout in global decision-making. Social tensions around mining and rising environmental crime could, however, diminish focus from global-projection efforts and impede building geopolitical influence through the control of resources. South America’s success in this endeavour will depend on whether regional governments can adopt policies on critical minerals, energy transition and sustainable mining that furnish predictable guidance for investors as regional partners.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80146051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Seeking the Essential Kennan 寻找本质的凯南
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239067
J. Harper
{"title":"Seeking the Essential Kennan","authors":"J. Harper","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239067","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The latest full-length study of the life of US diplomat and historian George F. Kennan (1904–2005) attempts to rectify what its author, Professor Frank Costigliola, believes to be the shortcomings of John Lewis Gaddis’s authorised biography, published in 2011. As a treatment of Kennan’s early life and career, of his post-State Department role as a commentator and ‘sage’, and in particular of its subject’s personal life and character, the book is unlikely to be matched. For all its virtues, however, it has a striking and rather surprising deficiency: readers must look elsewhere for a full account of its protagonist’s role as a policymaker in the years 1946–50. One need not agree with Costigliola’s assessment of Kennan’s historical stature to believe there is profit to be had in imagining what his message would be today on a range of subjects: the environment, the future of Ukraine and US–Russia relations, European strategic autonomy and the fragility of American democracy.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87835049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The US in the Middle East: Stupid or Merely Fallible? 美国在中东:愚蠢还是容易犯错?
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239064
John Jenkins
{"title":"The US in the Middle East: Stupid or Merely Fallible?","authors":"John Jenkins","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239064","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The broad story that Steven Simon’s Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East tells is one of arrogance and ignorance on the part of American leaders. In essence a realist, Simon is engagingly opinionated, sharp and judgemental. For him, 1979 is the moment the United States abandoned any previous caution about direct involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts and began to act as if it believed the region mattered more than it actually did. This is a serious charge. Simon makes the case for the prosecution robustly and with ample evidence from first-hand experience, archival research and contemporaneous press reporting. But energy, extremism and the preservation of the rules-based international order could still explain and justify US involvement. It may not be that America got stupid, but rather that the rest of the world got smart.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84247875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Germany’s Strategic Reorientations, Present and Past 德国的战略重新定位，现在和过去
IF 1.2 3区 社会学
Survival Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2239054
Stephen F. Szabo
{"title":"Germany’s Strategic Reorientations, Present and Past","authors":"Stephen F. Szabo","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2239054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2239054","url":null,"abstract":"Germany’s strategic reorientation under the Olaf Scholz-led coalition means the end of the civilian-power paradigm and the return of garrison states to European security following the shock of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Lessons can be drawn from the previous revolution in Germany’s strategic culture that took place in the 1950s under Konrad Adenauer and from the failures of adaptation in Germany’s security policies since reunification in 1990. Scholz leads a Germany facing a very different domestic and European political constellation than the one Adenauer faced. The role of economic actors and interests is much different in Germany’s relationship with Russia. Scholz also has a less predictable ally in a United States that is divided at home and faces a growing rival in China. Yet, as in Adenauer’s day, the perception of a direct threat and consequent urgency of alliance solidarity have helped diminish partisan differences and legacy biases.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76175505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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