SurvivalPub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218714
Dana H. Allin
{"title":"Ronald Steel and the American Century","authors":"Dana H. Allin","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218714","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The late Ronald Steel’s Walter Lippmann and the American Century chronicled the era of American ascendence though which Steel himself had lived. Like Lippman a sophisticated realist, he remained critical of US foreign policy, including, as he made clear in the pages of Survival in 2007, the Iraq War, which he speculated would produce an ‘Iraq syndrome’ that would discourage subsequent American military interventions. But the US, he added, would not be weakened ‘so grievously as to retreat into its shell. Such a retreat reflects neither America’s global interests nor the American character.’ Steel expected continuity in strategic affairs. On its face, the Biden administration’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine supports this assessment, but given the genuine possibility that Donald Trump will again be the US president, we really do not know if the American Century will be extended or come to an end.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"1 1","pages":"193 - 198"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88602529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2218699
James Crabtree, Evan A. Laksmana.
{"title":"The Philippines’ Surprising Veer West","authors":"James Crabtree, Evan A. Laksmana.","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2218699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218699","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many observers expected Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr, to maintain a hedging approach towards the United States and China following his mid-2022 election. Instead, he has highlighted differences with Beijing and sought closer ties with Washington, completing a long-awaited expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the US and authorising unprecedentedly large joint military exercises between the two countries. While China’s coercive behaviour towards the Philippines in the South China Sea is a major factor, Marcos has proven to be instinctively pro-American; the Armed Forces of the Philippines have generally supported the US alliance; and the US has worked harder to engage Manila. Unless Beijing dials back its activities in the South China Sea, Manila and Washington’s rejuvenated security relationship looks likely to endure as long as Marcos is in office.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"352 1","pages":"81 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74122968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193095
Bastian. Giegerich, Benjamin Schreer
{"title":"Zeitenwende One Year On","authors":"Bastian. Giegerich, Benjamin Schreer","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193095","url":null,"abstract":"In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende, or historical turning point, for German foreign and defence policy. Expectations of profound German geopolitical, geostrategic and geo-economic transformation were raised both in Germany and among Berlin’s allies. One year later, Germany’s greatest success has come in the geo-economic arena, where progress has been made to reduce Germany’s energy imports from Russia. Geopolitically, the picture is less convincing. While Scholz has committed to the defence of NATO territory against potential Russian aggression, it is not obvious whether the German government really perceives Russia as a direct threat to the country. Berlin has yet to formulate a convincing geopolitical leadership role in Europe, and it remains to be seen if the new defence minister, Boris Pistorius, will succeed in giving shape to much-needed Bundeswehr reform and resolve major readiness and procurement challenges. Consistent pressure from NATO allies will be needed to help bring about major change to Germany’s strategic and defence policy.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"359 1","pages":"37 - 42"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76522604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193100
Pierre Buhler
{"title":"About European Sovereignty","authors":"Pierre Buhler","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193100","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The coining of the concept of ‘European sovereignty’ by French President Emmanuel Macron in 2017 has prompted a heated debate, reviving disputes over supranationality, the nation-state and democracy that have resonated since the inception of the European project. Macron’s intervention came at a time when a flurry of crises compelled the European Union to move from its ambition of being a ‘normative power’ to living through its ‘Machiavellian moment’, against the backdrop of the rise of new global powers and existential threats for the security of the Union and its member states. But the term ‘European sovereignty’ is a misnomer. The real issue is one of power, not of sovereignty. Power proceeds from command, hardly an attribute of the complex shared decision-making process of the EU, leaving the objective of becoming a fully-fledged power out of reach for the European polity.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"49 1","pages":"55 - 74"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74017215","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193110
Benjamin Rhode
{"title":"Historical Imagination and the Unspoken Assumptions of Our Age","authors":"Benjamin Rhode","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193110","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article discusses changing conceptions of how the study of history should best inform present challenges. It contrasts the ‘historical sensibility’ embodied by Michael Howard with the teleological ‘historicism’ decried by Karl Popper. It explores what Howard termed the historical ‘imagination’ – the recreation of the belief structures which made historical events and developments possible – and his argument of how the study of history, including the history of foreign countries, might cultivate cultural empathy. It also examines James Joll’s concept of ‘unspoken assumptions’ and considers how it and Howard’s ideas might illuminate our understanding of our own age.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"31 1","pages":"213 - 228"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75387859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193093
Nigel Gould-Davies
{"title":"How the War Has Changed Russia","authors":"Nigel Gould-Davies","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193093","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Russia’s war in Ukraine is changing Russia itself. It is subordinating stability and prosperity to geopolitical obsession, and is mobilising society around active support for costly, indefinite aggression. This is breaking stabilising bargains the regime has struck at home with elites and the wider population. The system is not yet close to crisis, but the strains it faces will deepen.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"75 1","pages":"23 - 26"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86597667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193101
N. Crawford
{"title":"The Energy Transition, Protectionism and Transatlantic Relations","authors":"N. Crawford","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193101","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract US President Joe Biden has worked to repair the damage done to the transatlantic relationship by his predecessor, quickly realigning the United States with Europe on issues of energy and climate change. However, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 introduced a raft of protectionist subsidies for US clean-energy industries and reignited tensions between the US and the European Union. The EU has warned that the IRA could damage the bloc’s industry and American critics suggest the act may trigger a new US–EU trade war. The Biden administration’s geopolitical internationalism is at odds with its geo-economic nationalism. The fact remains, however, that Europe is unlikely to be severely affected by the IRA. Moreover, European political leaders have threatened more aggressive responses to the IRA than they can deliver. A trade war is unlikely. It is more likely that booming green industries in the EU and US will open new avenues to cooperation between them.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"39 1","pages":"75 - 102"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84156229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193107
Ray Takeyh
{"title":"Middle East","authors":"Ray Takeyh","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193107","url":null,"abstract":"The Contemporary Middle East in an Age of Upheaval James L. Gelvin, ed. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2021. $28.00. 368 pp. Revolutionary Life: The Everyday of the Arab Spring Asef Bayat. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2021. £30.95/$35.00. 336 pp. The Unfinished History of the Iran–Iraq War: Faith, Firepower, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Annie Tracy Samuel. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021. £75.00. 302 pp. Escaping the Conflict Trap: Toward Ending Civil War in the Middle East Paul Salem and Ross Harrison, eds. London: I.B. Tauris, 2022. 2nd ed. £19.99. 288 pp. The Struggle for Iran: Oil, Autocracy, and the Cold War, 1951–1954 David Painter and Gregory Brew. Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 2023. $32.95. 324 pp.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"43 1","pages":"191 - 197"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77370137","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193092
Franz-Stefan Gady, M. Kofman
{"title":"Ukraine’s Strategy of Attrition","authors":"Franz-Stefan Gady, M. Kofman","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193092","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Attrition has been both Ukraine’s and Russia’s primary approach at the tactical level. Ukraine’s preferred way of war centres on the use of artillery fire to facilitate decisive attritional effects on the opposing force, which it then exploits with manoeuvre. This is not unexpected, as most major conventional wars feature attrition as well as manoeuvre and reconstitution. Western assistance has brought Ukraine to an impressive point, but may not yield a fires advantage for Ukraine sufficient to ensure further operational breakthroughs or strategic gains. Advanced Western weapons, such as the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), have not allowed Ukraine to avoid attritional combat, particularly in its counter-offensive in Kherson. Even with more effective wide-scale combined-arms training and precision strikes, as contemplated, future Ukrainian gains are likely to be incremental and costly unless the Russian military significantly misspends combat power in its own offensive operations.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"182 1","pages":"7 - 22"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81569695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SurvivalPub Date : 2023-03-04DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2023.2193108
David C. Unger
{"title":"United States","authors":"David C. Unger","doi":"10.1080/00396338.2023.2193108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2193108","url":null,"abstract":"Silent Invasion: The Untold Story of the Trump Administration, Covid-19, and Preventing the Next Pandemic Before It’s Too Late Deborah Birx. New York: Harper, 2022. $29.99. 506 pp. Democracy’s Chief Executive: Interpreting the Constitution and Defining the Future of the Presidency Peter M. Shane. Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 2022. £25.00/$29.95. 304 pp. Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s Nicole Hemmer. New York: Basic Books, 2022. $32.00. 368 pp. Diplomacy and Capitalism: The Political Economy of U.S. Foreign Relations Christopher R.W. Dietrich, ed. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2022. $29.95. 302 pp. Before the Religious Right: Liberal Protestants, Human Rights, and the Polarization of the United States Gene Zubovich. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2022. $45.00. 391 pp.","PeriodicalId":51535,"journal":{"name":"Survival","volume":"9 1","pages":"198 - 204"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87839134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}