Assessing Proliferation Risks in the Middle East

Abstract Whether the Iran nuclear deal rises from the ashes or not, the United States and Europe now need to focus on preventing a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Turkiye and Saudi Arabia are the most likely to respond to Iran’s becoming a nuclear-threshold state. Both have good reasons to think twice before proceeding, but their current leaders have made statements that arouse concern. Egypt might find it hard not to follow in their wake. With Israel and Iran, there would then be a prospect of five rivalrous nuclear powers in close proximity in a volatile region. Avoiding this scenario will require careful analysis of nuclear capabilities in the potential proliferating states; intense diplomacy among the US, Europe and the potential proliferators; and a broader regional-security framework for threat assessment that does not exist today.