Development Policy Review最新文献

{"title":"How well can real-time indicators track the economic impacts of a crisis like COVID-19?","authors":"Gi Khan Ten,&nbsp;Hirfrfot Kibrom Tafere,&nbsp;David Newhouse,&nbsp;Utz Pape","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12797","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12797","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Academicians and policy-makers grapple with monitoring the economic impact of crises such as COVID-19 when survey data are scarce.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We show how a set of publicly available real-time indicators—nitrogen dioxide emissions, night-time lights, mobile phone mobility tracking, internet searches, and food prices—tracked changes in GDP across multiple countries in 2020.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We first describe the extent to which real-time indicators captured the COVID-19 crisis. We employ linear models, selected using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), to examine the capacity of these indicators to track GDP growth during the crisis.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Google Mobility and staple food prices both sharply declined in March and April 2020, followed by a rapid recovery returning to baseline levels by July and August 2020. Mobility and staple food prices experienced a milder decrease in low-income countries.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Nitrogen dioxide and night-time lights showed a similar pattern, with the steepest fall followed by a swift recovery in lower middle-income countries.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In April and May, Google search terms reflecting economic distress and religiosity spiked in some regions but not in others.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Linear models explain about half of the variation in annual GDP growth in 68 countries. In a smaller subset of higher-income countries, real-time indicators explain about 65% of the variation in quarterly GDP growth.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Real-time indicators offer several advantages in crisis monitoring, being readily available, cost-effective, and not requiring face-to-face interactions, which are particularly valuable during a pandemic.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141681201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Country need in the allocation of foreign assistance","authors":"Jake Grover","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12795","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12795","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Donors allocate huge sums for assistance intended for poverty reduction to countries that arguably do not need it. For example, the United States spends more in Jordan—with no extreme poverty—than it does in the six countries with the highest poverty rates in the world combined, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia. Prior studies have suggested that if global aid were allocated according to need, it could roughly double its impact on poverty reduction.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Country need can be broken down into the magnitude of the development challenge and the domestic resources available. This study examines these two components of development need to determine which countries have the greatest need for foreign assistance.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>I produce a set of data-driven observations documenting the magnitude of the challenge and the resources available. I first explore which countries have the highest rates of absolute and multidimensional poverty. I then examine which countries have the ability to redistribute by comparing their poverty gaps with the potential domestic resources available. This produces the marginal tax rate (MTR) required for a country to finance its own poverty eradication.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>There is a clear trend in the magnitude of the challenge: low-income countries (LICs) have the highest poverty rates by far; lower middle-income countries (LMICs) are more mixed; and upper middle-income countries (UMICs) have comparatively little extreme poverty, except in a small handful of countries. The implied MTRs required to close a country's extreme poverty gap are excessively high for LICs and most LMICs but easily manageable for most UMICs. This strongly suggests that both the magnitude of the challenge is much greater and the resources available much lower in LICs and LMICs.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The policy implication is that LICs and LMICs should be strongly favoured in terms of aid allocation. The two different components of country need point in the same direction and both suggest a strong focus on allocating assistance towards the poorest countries.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142137863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Arab uprising: A decade of transformations and challenges","authors":"Ammar Ahmad Ahmad Gady","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12794","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12794","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A decade has passed since the outbreak of the so-called Arab Spring, which led to regime changes in several Arab countries. However, these public protests demonstrated their ineffectiveness in bringing about political and economic improvements, nor did they facilitate a peaceful transition to democracy in Arab countries.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article attempts to discuss the obstacles to democratic transformation in Arab countries and the methods that should be followed to achieve democratic transformation, along with showing the international community's response to the Arab Spring.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article relies on a descriptive, methodological, and analytical approach to the obstacles to democratic transformation in Arab countries by analysing the events and results of the Arab Spring.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The democratic transformation in Arab countries does not require as much concerted effort to protect the right to peaceful assembly as it does to safeguard other rights from violations resulting from certain practices. This is primarily due to significant differences between ideological, intellectual, and political groups within society. Furthermore, democratic transformation in Arab countries necessitates the collective efforts of the international community, particularly Western nations such as the United States, employing a credible and transparent approach free from political or economic interests. These external factors are crucial when it comes to either facilitating or hindering the democratic transition and the implementation of democratic reforms.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Arab Spring showed that peaceful democratic transitions and the conditions for the continuation or replacement of authoritarian regimes require the approval and support of some countries that are devoid of political or economic interests, as they are external factors that can influence and hinder the democratic transition or ensure democratic reforms. This is especially true because public protests are no longer simply a sign of resistance to the regime but rather are rather a potential advance warning of rebellion and the overthrow of said regimes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141556694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative","authors":"Rika Preiser,&nbsp;Tanja Hichert,&nbsp;Reinette Biggs,&nbsp;Julia van Velden,&nbsp;Nyasha Magadzire,&nbsp;Garry Peterson,&nbsp;Laura Pereira,&nbsp;Keziah Mayer,&nbsp;Karina Benessaiah","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12791","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12791","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Foresight methods are increasingly recognized as essential for decision-making in complex environments, particularly within development and research settings. As foresight methods continue to gain prominence for decision-making, their application in these settings grows. Funders and policy-makers can benefit from the experience of transformative foresight practitioners and researchers who are skilled in designing novel ways to envision alternative and diverse development futures.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (SoGA) initiative has experimented with transformative foresight since its inception in 2016.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We position SoGA within the framework of Minkkinen et al. (2019); we present its transformative capacity through participatory visioning; and we explore how foresight methods can shape strategic development options.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We draw lessons from how SoGA, used extensively in various contexts around the world, has introduced experimental transformative foresight to deal with diversity and complexity. We describe the transformative foresight processes in detail.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>SoGA exemplifies how transformative foresight can support policy and change initiatives by providing participants, planners, and decision-makers with opportunities to reinforce the collaborative and transformative objectives of their policy and convening practices. Such engagement not only deepens the strategic impact of policies, it also encourages a more inclusive and participatory approach to policy development, aligning with broader goals for sustainable and impactful change.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12791","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141337807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foresight and futures thinking for international development co-operation: Promises and pitfalls","authors":"Fraser Reilly-King,&nbsp;Colleen Duggan,&nbsp;Alex Wilner","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12790","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12790","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Strategic foresight is gaining traction for anticipating changes in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world—one which will require different mindsets and approaches. Yet international development co-operation practitioners have been slow to adopt foresight.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>What promises and pitfalls should development practitioners consider in order to integrate strategic foresight into their work?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and approach</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We review the literature on strategic foresight applied to development. We draw on reflections from the articles included in this special issue. We incorporate the International Development Research Centre's experiences and early insights on the use of foresight for development.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Strategic foresight provides tools to anticipate long-term and potentially disruptive change. To apply the approach effectively, organizations need to understand the debates about foresight. But no one size fits all: organizations must identify where and how foresight can best be used; be clear on its purpose, use, and end-users; be sensitive to how foresight intersects with broader calls for decolonizing development and the future; and should adapt methods to different sociocultural contexts.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Connecting foresight practitioners and international development actors to explore potential synergies between these two worlds offers opportunities to innovate.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Traditional, short-term strategic planning, and reactive responses to emerging crises, are increasingly ill-suited to a VUCA world. To be fit for the future, international development actors must consider adding proactive longer-term anticipatory planning—that accommodates more systematic understanding and appreciation of plausible futures—to reactive responses.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12790","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141353844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Foresight for a better African future: Lessons from six decades of practice","authors":"Olugbenga Adesida,&nbsp;Julius Gatune,&nbsp;Aidan Eyakuze","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12788","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12788","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Being able to anticipate (foresight) and thus identify development pathways and make long-term plans is crucial for the transformation of Africa. However, long-term planning was abandoned as many African countries went into crisis, being mostly forced to adopt structural adjustment programmes in the 1980s. Although long-term planning began to make a comeback in the 1990s, the resulting visions have tended to remain that— visions—not fully reflected in policy implementation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The article explores the many cycles of foresight in Africa to gain insight into how foresight can become an opportunity to generate new development options and strategies for Africa. Various examples of foresight in Africa are examined to tease out the imperatives for African policy-makers to embed foresight into development management.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We review foresight in Africa, starting by mapping foresight exercises in the continent since independence. We identify three categories of foresight exercises: development partner-led, government-led, and civil society-led. Given the involvement of the authors in some of the exercises, assessments are largely derived from personal communications, recollections, and reflections.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Four insights emerge. First, foresight exercises have had little impact on leaders and decision-makers, in large part because they have not been intimately engaged in the exercises.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Two, foresight narratives tend to be challenging, raising difficult issues that may require substantial and difficult reforms. Faced with everyday challenges of government, leaders have usually chosen to ignore and disbelieve foresight exercises.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Three, foresight analysts have not been sufficiently empathetic to the highly constrained systems of public governance and the ministers and civil servants that operate them.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Four, futures initiatives can present the factors that may shape the future as overwhelming; and thereby discounting and undervaluing individual and collective agency.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Exploring the future is not new in Africa. In traditional African societies, the need to explore the future has been recognized, as captured in proverbs an","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12788","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141382834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Institutionalizing foresight in science, technology, and innovation in sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"John Ouma-Mugabe,&nbsp;Anthon Botha,&nbsp;Petrus Letaba","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12789","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12789","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Foresight is increasingly being institutionalized and used in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy processes around the world. Foresight is a toolbox to help decision-makers generate intelligence about future scientific and technological advances and to frame long-term STI policy goals and rationales. Foresight can be used to inform policy to steer research and innovation (R&amp;I) towards attaining sustainable development goals. Yet, foresight is not institutionalized and used in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at a time when many governments are formulating new STI policies and some of their science granting councils (SGCs) are setting R&amp;I priorities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This exploratory study is about challenges and opportunities of institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. It identifies ways of institutionalizing and using STI foresight.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and approach</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A literature review, bibliometric analysis, interviews, an online survey, and focus group discussions were conducted to identify challenges to, and lessons for, institutionalizing STI foresight in SSA. The literature identified good practices for institutionalizing STI foresight in selected developed countries, to draw lessons for SSA.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>While academic research on STI foresight and related topics is increasing, there is very limited foresight practice in STI policy processes in SSA. This is mainly owing to low awareness of STI foresight, weak technical capacity, and generally a lack of foresight culture in STI policy-making in the region.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Building capacity within governments and establishing a community of practice in STI foresight may help improve the quality and effectiveness of STI policy in SSA. It may enable institutions such as science granting councils (SGCs) to make informed funding decisions, targeting scarce resources at priority research and innovation. Overall, building STI foresight literacy and skills, as well as establishing designated offices for STI foresight, supported by the knowledge to select and adapt foresight tools, will result in improved STI policy-making in SSA.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12789","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141266297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Futuring Fragility: Embracing uncertainty, identifying opportunity, unlocking development","authors":"Dominik Balthasar","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12779","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12779","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Close to a third of the world's population and more than 80% of people living in extreme poverty live in contexts of fragility. With agencies such as the OECD and UNDP conceiving of such places in terms of multiple and serious risks, the framing has come to be one of pathology: fragile contexts are defined by deficits with respect to idealized governance and sustainable development goals. In consequence, development options are locked into managing risks—confining opportunities to develop potential.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Can strategic foresight unlock the development potential of fragile societies?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Because there is still little documentation of foresight initiatives in contexts of fragility, the approach here is theoretical and conceptual. We draw on literature from the fields of fragility, foresight, and cognition, as well as insights from expert exchanges and roundtables.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>It is uncertainty, not risk, that lies at the heart of fragility—an insight that challenges standard decision-making. With the latter being based on analogical reasoning, it cannot be logically applied under conditions of uncertainty. If, instead, we adopt an heuristic for decision-making that acknowledges uncertainty to not only entail risk but also opportunity, strategic foresight is well-placed to help revive development.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>First, fragility has to be reframed to acknowledge the centrality of uncertainty, not risk, in approaching fragility. Whilst evidence from the past is important, scrutinizing past paradigms and envisioning different futures is crucial.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Second, strategic foresight can help uncover fragile societies’ capacities and potential. It can help shift from analyses dominated by a concern with lacks and deficits, to analyses which seek relative strengths and opportunities. Just as strong states are not strong in every respect, fragile states may have more to offer than meets the eye.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Third, debates need to be more open, less ideologically laden. Dominant thinking on fragility is rife with seemingly imperturbable underpinnings: for example, the mantra that “without peace there can be no development, and without development there can be no peace.” While such propositions c","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12779","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141267219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anticipatory Development Foresight: An approach for international and multilateral organizations","authors":"Aarathi Krishnan,&nbsp;Sophia Robele","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12778","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12778","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In the three years before 2023, we have seen multiple parallel crises—from climate emergencies to economic instability, dramatic increases in costs of living, and political insecurities. Looming larger than the risks is the resultant uncertainty. Development agents, including governments, are historically unprepared for managing converging crisis. When risks are analysed and governed in narrow ways, the historically oppressed and excluded continue to carry the brunt of impact.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article reflects on the question: How can institutions, including governments, become more anticipatory against this backdrop, to ensure that their policy and investment choices do not leave anyone behind due to lack of preparedness?</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>It draws insights from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Asia and the Pacific's efforts since 2020 to apply more future-fit planning and programming, recognizing that foresight is not an end in itself, but a mechanism for shaping more anticipatory institutions. It is based on qualitative learning synthesized from over three years of work to establish new systems, capabilities and processes for UNDP and its partners to engage in anticipatory risk and planning.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Practices rooted in strategic foresight and anticipation can support institutions to incorporate long-term thinking in planning and analysis, but their translation into development decisions and investments requires shifts in perspectives and risk appetite. Historically, strategic foresight has not been mainstreamed within international organizations and governments owing to: failing to embed anticipation into core systems and processes; giving more attention to tools and building skills than to the demand for alternative decision-making models and to risk tolerance; relying overly on external support and static models; insufficiently attending to organizational culture and relational drivers of thinking and action.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We suggest four interconnected levers to help sustain impact and equity when bringing anticipatory approaches into policy processes: ensure design elasticity to encourage local, context-specific models of anticipatory decision-making; build anticipatory systems as a base to understand future risks, harms, and cor","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12778","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141267783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"(Re)envisioning inclusive futures: Applying narrative foresight to deconstruct the problem of urban flooding in the slums of Bengaluru, India","authors":"SriPallavi Nadimpalli,&nbsp;Sahil Mathew,&nbsp;Tashina Madappa Cheranda","doi":"10.1111/dpr.12786","DOIUrl":"10.1111/dpr.12786","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Recurring urban flooding in Bengaluru, India, has brought multiple intersecting development challenges to the forefront. While climate change is a catalyst for flooding, rapid urbanisation has aggravated the problem by neglecting its ecological history. Repeated floods have particularly affected migrants living in the slums, further worsening their already vulnerable conditions. Currently, only about 40% of slums are formally recognized by city authorities, leaving most slum dwellers with limited access to public benefits and basic infrastructure. Although the city offers piecemeal solutions, it currently lacks foresight for long-term planning that includes marginalized voices.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We explore the multiple and intertwined development challenges faced by Bengaluru city, attempting to frame them from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers experiencing flooding. We try to bring to the forefront the everyday risks and vulnerabilities of the marginalized populations in Indian cities, which have received limited attention both in research and policy.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The results of this exercise are intended to create sustainable collaborative processes to inform future decisions, particularly addressing the problem of urban flooding.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods and approach</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our proposed methodology integrates climate risk assessment—urban flood modelling and exposure mapping of slums across the city—with vulnerability assessments at the household level including analysis of life histories to capture the relative vulnerabilities of slum dwellers and the slums in which they live.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We deconstruct urban flooding, particularly from the perspective of migrant slum dwellers to identify some critical challenges, especially that of recognition, to foresight thinking. By incorporating marginalized voices, our methods aim to be inclusive and contextually relevant, while considering intersectional variations among those marginalized.</p>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A mixed-methods approach allows climate risk assessment to be augmented by life histories of vulnerable slum populations to collaboratively reimagine a more inclusive future.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To make policy more inclusive, more participatory processes are needed. The proposed methods will cont","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2024-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.12786","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141114824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}