Development Policy Review最新文献

{"title":"Governance Quality and Economic Growth Nexus in Somalia: Evidence from an ARDL approach (2000–2022)","authors":"Yusuf Bala Zaria, Abdikani Yusuf Abdulle","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70098","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Somalia has experienced persistent institutional weakness, governance challenges, and macroeconomic instability that constrain its long-term economic performance. Although previous studies have examined the relationship between governance quality and economic outcomes, there is limited empirical evidence as to how specific governance dimensions influence economic growth in Somalia. Existing studies have produced mixed findings, particularly regarding the role of government effectiveness, corruption control, exchange-rate conditions, and human-capital-related factors in fragile institutional environments.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the relationship between governance quality and economic growth in Somalia using macroeconomic time-series evidence from 2000–2022. Specifically, the study investigates the influence of government effectiveness, control of corruption, the selected exchange rates related indicator, and the human-capital-related indicator on economic growth. The study contributes to the literature by providing country-specific evidence from Somalia, where governance institutions remain relatively weak and empirical macroeconomic studies remain limited.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and Methodology</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The study applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to examine the short- and long-run relationship among the variables. Annual data were obtained from the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and World Development Indicators (WDI) databases. The analysis includes economic growth as the dependent variable, measured by annual GDP growth, while governance quality is represented by government effectiveness and control of corruption indicators.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The empirical results indicate that governance-related variables exhibit mixed and statistically weak relationships with economic growth in Somalia during the study period. Government effectiveness shows a positive relationship with economic growth, while corruption control, the exchange-rate-related indicator, and the human-capital-related indicator display negative coefficients. However, most of the estimated coefficients are statistically insignificant, suggesting that the relationship between governance quality and economic growth remains inconclusive within the selected sample period. The findings highlight the complexity of governance–growth dynamics in fragile economies where institutional reforms may require longer periods to generate measurable economic effects.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <secti","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148993970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The currency risk challenge in African power finance: Structures, politics, and emerging responses","authors":"Wikus Kruger,&nbsp;Danny Cassimon","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70096","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Achieving Africa's energy and infrastructure goals requires unprecedented investment, but reliance on foreign currencies in project finance exposes governments and utilities to systemic currency risk.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article explores the structural, financial, and political economy dimensions of currency mismatch in African power projects, and those executed by (private sector) Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in particular, where revenues are in local currency, but debt obligations are in hard currency. It argues that traditional solutions, such as sovereign guarantees and hard-currency power purchase agreements (PPAs), are increasingly unsustainable, exacerbating fiscal vulnerabilities and undermining long-term resilience.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The article examines the state of local capital markets across Africa, the evolution of PPA structures, and the consequences of unmanaged foreign-exchange risk on utilities, consumers, and governments. Through illustrative case studies, it sketches the limitations of prevailing models and highlights emerging alternatives, including local-currency PPAs, partial indexation mechanisms, hedging instruments, guarantees, and blended finance solutions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings and policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Traditional approaches, including hard-currency PPAs, sovereign guarantees, and full currency indexation, have supported project bankability but increasingly impose unsustainable fiscal and political burdens on host countries. Local-currency solutions offer a more resilient alternative, but their feasibility depends on the country's context, domestic financial depth, institutional capacity, and the availability of concessional risk-sharing mechanisms. Focussing in particular on TCX, GuarantCo, and related instruments, the paper argues that currency risk mitigation must be embedded in procurement design, development finance institution mandates, and domestic capital market development. It concludes with recommendations for governments, donors, DFIs, and domestic financial actors to enable a shift toward a locally anchored, fiscally responsible, and more developmentally aligned investment architecture.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.70096","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coherence and causal logic in a Social Violence Prevention Model for reducing youth violence: Evidence from Cali, Colombia","authors":"Yamileth Ortiz-Gómez,&nbsp;Jorge Martín Rodríguez,&nbsp;Ligia Malagón de Salazar,&nbsp;María Cecilia Gonzalez-Robledo","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70095","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Youth violence is a major public health problem in Cali, Colombia. To address this, a social prevention model was designed to reduce youth violence. However, it is essential to evaluate such models not only in terms of their outcomes, but also from a regulatory perspective and in relation to their causal logic, to assess their internal coherence and theoretical soundness.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To evaluate, from a regulatory perspective and in terms of its causal logic, the social prevention model designed to reduce youth violence in Cali, Colombia.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>A qualitative multimethod study was conducted in three phases.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The model exhibit moderate internal consistency, aligning their 12 interventions with the expected long-term outcomes. Evidence and expert consensus validate the effectiveness of the multilevel approaches—especially in the individual and relational dimensions—although gaps were identified in the definition of the target population and the theoretical foundation of the community components, which could limit its replicability.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The model is a scalable roadmap whose successful replication requires strengthening inter-institutional coordination and securing resources for effective impact delivery. Its sustainability requires adapting interventions to local risk profiles and integrating monitoring systems for adaptive management.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Caste discrimination and returns to farming: Evidence from Maharashtra","authors":"Nageshwar Bansode,&nbsp;Madhura Swaminathan","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70092","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Motivation&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Caste-based discrimination continues to shape economic outcomes in rural India. Although substantial evidence documents wide disparities in economic indicators between Scheduled Castes (SCs) and other social groups, relatively little is known about inequalities in farm incomes. Findings from large-scale sample surveys and village-level studies consistently show that SC households earn lower farm business incomes than their non-SC counterparts. However, evidence on the specific discriminatory practices that contribute to these income differentials remains limited.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Purpose&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data collected in two SC-dominated villages in Maharashtra, this article documents the forms and mechanisms of discrimination operating in agricultural input and output markets.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Approach and Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Fieldwork was conducted by the primary author during 2019 and 2020 in two villages in Nanded district, a relatively underdeveloped region within the otherwise high-income state of Maharashtra in India. By focusing on villages where SCs constitute the dominant population, this study extends the existing literature, which has largely examined discrimination in multi-caste village settings.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The analysis is guided by an existing conceptual framework that identifies discrimination through complete exclusion and selective inclusion, and also examines discrimination derived from differential effects and cumulative deprivation across time and institutional domains.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Findings&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Our detailed estimates reveal relatively low levels of income from crop production in both study villages. We also identify multiple forms of discrimination that affect market transactions, particularly in agricultural input and output markets, as well as discriminatory outcomes associated with public policy implementation. Although low agricultural productivity is partly attributable to regional constraints, including a lack of irrigation, we do not attempt a formal statistical attribution of income differentials. Rather, we show that the discriminatory practices documented in this study are likely to increase production costs and reduce net farm incomes for SC cultivators compared to other farmers.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Policy Implications&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;We therefore argue that public policies aimed at improving farm incomes—including minimum support price policies, fertilizer subsidies, and investments","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942254","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shocks and labour mobility across rural–urban destinations: Evidence from Ethiopia","authors":"Melaku Gebremedhin,&nbsp;Ashenafi Duguma Feyisa,&nbsp;Miet Maertens","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70093","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Labour mobility is an important driver of economic development in low- and middle-income countries. It is driven by pull factors that increase labour productivity in destination areas and improve the expected returns to migration, as well as by push factors such as shocks and risks in areas of origin.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study empirically examines the role of shocks in shaping rural labour mobility decisions, focusing on participation and destination choices. Recognizing that rural households in low- and middle-income countries are often exposed to multiple and frequent shocks, we identify more than 30 types of shocks across six domains—COVID-19, production, marketing, institutional, financial, and personal—and analyse the effects of overall and domain-specific shocks on labour mobility outcomes. Moreover, we distinguish between different labour mobility destinations and examine migration to rural villages, secondary towns, and cities.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using data from a three-round household survey of 806 observations, we apply cross-sectional probit, trivariate probit, and conditional mixed process regression models, complemented with an IV approach.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Results show that exposure to shocks is associated with a higher likelihood of labour mobility, with resource-poor households more likely to migrate to rural destinations. The estimated effects vary by shock type and mobility destination and suggest that production shocks promote rural–rural migration but deter urban migration, while personal and financial shocks stimulate movements to urban or secondary-town destinations.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>These patterns highlight the differentiated role of migration as a risk-coping strategy and underscore the need for policies that strengthen production resilience and promote financial inclusion to help households cope with shocks and make more effective decisions around labour mobility.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148943669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Negative news, misinformation, and public support for development cooperation: Can evidence literacy education build resilience?","authors":"Jens Eger,&nbsp;Anna Lotte Klennert","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70091","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>In late 2023, the German government faced public criticism for funding cycle paths in Peru. This episode is particularly salient given a broader trend of declining public support for development cooperation.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study investigates how exposure to negative information about development cooperation affects public support for these policies. In particular, it asks whether negative information undermines support and whether this effect can be mitigated through the provision of evidence or through evidence literacy education.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The research questions are addressed using two survey experiments: a theory-driven conjoint experiment and a vignette experiment based on a newspaper article reporting on German-funded cycle paths in Peru.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Across both experiments, we find a robust and substantial negative effect of negative information on public support for development cooperation. Evidence on potential mitigation strategies is mixed. Although the provision of evidence literacy education does not consistently buffer the negative impact of negative information, it significantly increases individuals' propensity to seek additional information.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The findings suggest that negative media coverage poses a serious challenge in maintaining public support for development cooperation. Although evidence literacy alone may not shield public opinion from negative information, it appears to foster a more critical and inquiry-oriented public. Policy communication strategies may therefore benefit from complementing factual information with longer-term investments in evidence literacy to strengthen democratic resilience in debates on development policy.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dpr.70091","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148848832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Afghan perspectives on European development assistance: Challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned","authors":"Nazir Ahmad Yosufi","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70094","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Motivation</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The European Union (EU) has played a key role as a major contributor, providing over USD 13 billion in development assistance to Afghanistan. This study re-evaluates two decades of European development assistance (EDA) from the perspectives of Afghan recipients.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Purpose</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>It examines why the EU failed to achieve Afghan state-building goals through the EDA, providing nuanced insights into the challenges faced.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Approach and Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The study draws on 20 semi-structured interviews conducted with former Afghan government officials, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society organization (CSO) representatives, complemented by primary sources from the Afghan government, the EU, and the academic literature.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Findings</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The results revealed both positive outcomes and challenges. Factors that contribute to state-building failure include fragmented donor strategies, lack of accountability, and ineffective checks and balances. Over-reliance on off-budget aid without UN coordination was the main critical shortcoming, causing the duplication of projects. Additionally, in the context of conflicting interests and differing goals among donors, including the EU, the Afghan government's role reduced to that of a bystander. As such, Afghans experienced a lack of autonomy and ownership, which compromised the potential to effectively coordinate reconstruction and state-building efforts.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Policy Implications</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Future EU engagement with Afghanistan or similar post-conflict countries should prioritise balanced allocation of on- and off-budget aid for effective long-term development and stability. The EU should support the UN as the primary aid coordinator to minimize duplication and align resources with recipient priorities. To enhance transparency in channelling off-budget aid via NGOs, a tripartite audit mechanism involving the UN, recipient government, and donors would prevent capital flight, curb corruption and reduce wastage of resources.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148848752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Fiscal institutions and the additionality of extraordinary lithium rents at the subnational level: Evidence from Antofagasta, Chile","authors":"Juan Páez Cortés,&nbsp;Cristian Rodríguez-Salas","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70086","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70086","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Motivation&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;In resource-rich regions, subnational governments often struggle to translate extraordinary revenues into effective public investment and local development outcomes under conditions of partial fiscal decentralization. While resource windfalls can expand local fiscal space, their developmental impact critically depends on the institutional arrangements that govern the relations between central and subnational governments. Since 2018, Chile has received substantial subnational revenues related to lithium extraction in the Salar de Atacama, allowing an examination of how institutional design shapes fiscal additionality.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Purpose&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;This article examines how multilevel institutional arrangements under partial decentralization shape the fiscal additionality of lithium-related extraordinary revenues at the subnational level.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The study adopts an explaining-outcome process tracing approach, combining analysis of government and policy documents with semi-structured interviews with key actors at central, regional, and municipal levels. This design reconstructs sequential institutional decisions shaping the authorization and execution of extraordinary revenues between 2018 and 2025.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Findings&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The findings identify three causal mechanisms linking multilevel institutions to revenue additionality. First, under partial decentralization, subnational extraordinary resource revenues are incorporated into a centralized budgetary framework, generating institutional uncertainty regarding their fiscal treatment in the absence of explicit non-compensation rules. This uncertainty induces precautionary behaviour among subnational governments, delaying planning and execution despite resource availability. Second, heterogeneity across governance scales in perceptions of subnational capacity to manage public investment conditions central authorization processes, reinforcing cautious oversight and prolonging approval timelines. Third, when contractual protocols governing extraordinary revenues are adjusted to local priorities and operational capacities, subnational governments are better able to translate these resources into additional public investment.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Policy implications&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The governance of volatile revenues linked to critical minerals benefits from instruments that: (i) prevent compensatory reductions in regular intergovernmental transfers; (ii) enable multiannual programming and, wher","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148784101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"TVET reform in fragile states: A policy window for hope in Lebanon's skills crisis","authors":"Shereen Hamadeh","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70090","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Motivation&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Youth unemployment is a persistent challenge in fragile states, where economic collapse, governance failures, and skills mismatches undermine young people's pathways to employment. In Lebanon, prolonged political instability, economic crisis, and large-scale outward migration have severely weakened labour-market absorption, while the Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) system has struggled to respond effectively. Recent economic pressures, clearly documented skills shortages, and renewed political momentum have converged to make this a prime moment for placing TVET reform firmly on the national education policy agenda.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Purpose&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;This study aims to examine why TVET reform should be prioritized on Lebanon's education policy agenda. It asks how Kingdon's multiple streams framework can explain the emergence of a policy window for TVET reform in a fragile state setting, and what agenda-setting conditions enable TVET to be positioned as a strategic policy response to youth unemployment and skills mismatches.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Approach and Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The study adopts a qualitative policy analysis approach using Kingdon's multiple streams framework (Kingdon, 1995). It draws on secondary data, including national labour force surveys, international skills anticipation studies, government reports, policy documents, and relevant academic and grey literature. The analysis systematically maps evidence onto the problem, policy, and politics streams to assess their convergence and identify the presence of a policy window for TVET reform.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Findings&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The findings indicate a clear alignment of the three streams. Rising youth unemployment, skills shortages, and misalignment between TVET provision and labour-market needs define the problem stream. Established but underimplemented reform proposals and strong theoretical support for TVET investment characterize the policy stream. Recent political stabilization and renewed international engagement signal a favourable politics stream. Together, these conditions create a credible policy window for elevating TVET reform on the national agenda.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Policy Implications&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Policy-makers should act decisively to leverage this policy window by prioritizing TVET reform through improved cross-sector governance, curriculum modernization aligned with labour-market needs, strengthened quality assurance, and sustainable public–private partnerships. The study offe","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148752820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Factors influencing Parish Revolving Fund lead time under Uganda's Parish Development Model","authors":"Solomon Stephen Nuwagaba,&nbsp;Swaibu Mbowa,&nbsp;Sheila Christine Nakkazi,&nbsp;Sandrah Nakabiri","doi":"10.1111/dpr.70089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.70089","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;div&gt;\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Motivation&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Parish Revolving Fund (PRF) lead time is a critical bottleneck in Uganda's Parish Development Model (PDM), yet existing studies focus on access and repayment while neglecting the timing of disbursement. The study reconceptualize access to include its temporal dimension: receiving funds late is functionally equivalent to incomplete access.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Purpose&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;The study analyses the determinants of PRF lead time as a continuous-duration outcome, examining how sociodemographic, institutional, and infrastructure factors shape processing delays across Uganda's regions.&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Approach and Methods&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Using nationally representative data from the EPRC-PDM Household Survey (2024), covering 1,366 households (1,433,158 weighted), this study estimates a weighted gamma regression with a log link, supported by stepwise modelling, regional sub-sample estimation, winsorization, clustered standard errors, alternative distributional specifications, and a Heckman two-step correction for self-selection into membership of Savings and Credit Cooperatives (SACCOs).&lt;/p&gt;\u0000 &lt;/section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;section&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;h3&gt; Findings&lt;/h3&gt;\u0000 \u0000 &lt;p&gt;Lead time is significantly influenced by institutional capacity, payment modality, sociodemographic factors like gender and residence, and infrastructure. Digital channels reduce delays, with Wendi (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;β&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;1.452&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ beta =-1.452 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) and Mobile Money (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;β&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;1.451&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ beta =-1.451 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;) showing strong national effects. Male-headed households experience shorter lead times (&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;β&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;=&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;−&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.748&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt;$$ beta =-0.748 $$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; months), implying about a 47% gender gap at mean covariates. The Heckman inverse Mills ratio &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;ma","PeriodicalId":51478,"journal":{"name":"Development Policy Review","volume":"44 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2026-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148615785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}