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A demographic assessment of the impact of the war in the Gaza Strip on the mortality of children and their parents in 2023. 加沙地带战争对 2023 年儿童及其父母死亡率影响的人口评估。
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00369-x
Schlüter Benjamin-Samuel, Masquelier Bruno, Jamaluddine Zeina
{"title":"A demographic assessment of the impact of the war in the Gaza Strip on the mortality of children and their parents in 2023.","authors":"Schlüter Benjamin-Samuel, Masquelier Bruno, Jamaluddine Zeina","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00369-x","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00369-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Following Hamas's 7 October attack, Israel launched extensive aerial bombardments in the Gaza Strip, followed by a large-scale ground invasion. During the first 3 months of the conflict, up to December 31, 2023, the Palestinian Ministry of Health reported that 21,822 Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes. This study estimates the number of excess deaths in children due to the war in the Gaza Strip in 2023 and assesses how the conflict has impacted the experience of parental loss among children.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We reconstructed background life tables for the Gaza Strip based on under-five mortality estimates from sample surveys and accounted for casualties due to the 2023 conflict, using the age distribution of deaths from an individual list of 13,101 fatalities reported by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. We employed a kinship matrix model to estimate the number of new orphans in 2023 and the prevalence of maternal and paternal orphanhood.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From October 8 to December 31, 2023, our estimates indicate that 8120 children under 18 years of age were killed due to the conflict (with a range of 7099 to 9196 excess deaths). Additionally, 15,127 children (14,716-15,553) lost a father, and 9886 children (9564-10,216) lost a mother due to the conflict. Between 2022 and 2023, the probability of dying in childhood (ages 0-17) increased nearly sixfold for both males and females. The war increased the risk of losing a mother and a father by nine-fold and six-fold, respectively. Compared to the situation in 2022, the proportion of paternal orphans among children aged 0-17 rose by 1.5 times, while the proportion of maternal orphans doubled.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The dramatic number of excess deaths among children and the sharp increases in orphanhood underscores the urgent need to prioritize the well-being and rights of children caught up in the war in Gaza.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"8"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11874636/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143543111","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reassessing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality via distributional similarities.
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00365-1
Ana C Gómez-Ugarte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo G Camarda, Fanny Janssen, Emilio Zagheni
{"title":"Reassessing socioeconomic inequalities in mortality via distributional similarities.","authors":"Ana C Gómez-Ugarte, Ugofilippo Basellini, Carlo G Camarda, Fanny Janssen, Emilio Zagheni","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00365-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00365-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Commonly used measures of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, such as the slope and the relative index of inequality, are based on summary measures of the group-specific age-at-death distributions (e.g. standardized mortality rate or life expectancy). While this approach is informative, it ignores valuable information contained in the group-specific distributions. A recent approach applied a measure of distributional dissimilarity (the non-overlap index) to measure lifespan stratification. In this paper, we rigorously evaluate and further implement the multi-group extension of the non-overlap index ( <math><msup><mi>S</mi> <mi>P</mi></msup> </math> ) to measure socioeconomic inequalities in mortality across a number of groups, and assess whether differences across countries and over time are driven by mortality or compositional changes in two applications with different data availability: educational groups (Sweden and Denmark) and groups defined by an area-level deprivation measure (England). Our findings suggest that the multi-group <math><msup><mi>S</mi> <mi>P</mi></msup> </math> is sensitive not only to changes in the means or variances, but also to broader mortality changes that affect distributional shapes. The method can be employed to any context where mortality rates by age are available by sub-groups. Furthermore, levels and trends in mortality inequalities computed with the multigroup <math><msup><mi>S</mi> <mi>P</mi></msup> </math> often differ compared to other conventional summary-based measures. Moreover, we find that the contribution of mortality changes to changes in inequalities is generally greater than that of the changes in the population composition. Whereas levels and trends of inequalities may depend on whether life expectancy- or lifespan variation-based measures are employed, the multi-group <math><msup><mi>S</mi> <mi>P</mi></msup> </math> provides a holistic perspective by capturing both dimensions simultaneously.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"7"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11847365/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143477246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Sex-selective abortions over the past four decades in China.
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00368-y
Li Mei, Quanbao Jiang
{"title":"Sex-selective abortions over the past four decades in China.","authors":"Li Mei, Quanbao Jiang","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00368-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00368-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>China now faces multiple challenging demographic and public policy problems that have emerged from four decades of sex-selective induced abortions. The sex-selective induced abortion of female fetuses has been under-examined quantitatively in China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using annual data on the officially registered number of births, induced abortions, and SRB data, we estimate the annual number of sex-selective abortions and then estimated two related proportions over the past decades.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The annual proportions and number of selective abortions rose in the 1980s with the strict family planning policy and the diffusion of sex identification technology, remained at a high level between 1990 and 2010, and then declined, totaling 30.04 million. The abortion of second-order female fetuses was the largest proportion of all sex-selective abortions but declined after 2000 partly due to the change in birth composition by order. Children's composition affected sex-selective practice. Village selective abortions accounted for the majority of all selective abortions but decreased markedly in 2010 with changes in birth composition by residence. The rural-urban comparison by order indicated that urban couples were not less likely to abort female fetuses than their rural counterparts. Sex-selective abortions still exhibit provincial differences.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In China, the long-standing preference for sons, easy access to sex-selective technologies, and the spontaneous fertility decline have led to the continued practice of selectively aborting female fetuses, despite its prohibition. As a result, the imbalanced sex ratio may take years to normalize.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"6"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11846193/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143473174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quality-adjusted life expectancy norms for the Iranian population.
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00366-0
Abdoreza Mousavi, Rajabali Daroudi, Samira Alipour, Ali Akbari Sari, Fakhraddin Daastari
{"title":"Quality-adjusted life expectancy norms for the Iranian population.","authors":"Abdoreza Mousavi, Rajabali Daroudi, Samira Alipour, Ali Akbari Sari, Fakhraddin Daastari","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00366-0","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00366-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) is a well-established approach for evaluating health expectancy, combining health-related quality of life (HRQoL) with life expectancy (LE) to produce a cohesive summary score. This study offers QALE estimates for the Iranian population, categorized by age group and sex.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>To establish QALE population norms, we integrated age- and sex-specific EQ-5D-3 L utility scores with the national life tables of the Iranian population, sourced from the World Health Organization. The utility scores were derived from data gathered through the EQ-5D questionnaire survey, collected from 27,704 participants during the eighth round of the nationwide Stepwise approach to surveillance (STEPS) conducted in 2021. EQ-5D health status was converted into utility scores using the existing value set provided through a face-to-face time trade-off method for the Iranian general population.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The utility score for men decreased from 0.95 in the 18-19 age group to 0.76 in the 85 + age group, while for women, it declined from 0.91 to 0.66 over the same age range. Although women have a higher life expectancy than men, the reverse is true for QALE. QALE at birth is 68.29 QALYs for men and 66.69 QALYs for women.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study presents Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) population norms for Iran. These norms can be used in economic assessments of health interventions and population health studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"5"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11827415/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143416156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Health dynamics in war-torn Yemen: insights from 32 years of epidemiological data (1990-2021).
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00363-3
Nawsherwan, Sumaira Mubarik, Shafaq Naeem, Rabia Mubarak, Chuanhua Yu, Wang Yan, Mangmang Sang
{"title":"Health dynamics in war-torn Yemen: insights from 32 years of epidemiological data (1990-2021).","authors":"Nawsherwan, Sumaira Mubarik, Shafaq Naeem, Rabia Mubarak, Chuanhua Yu, Wang Yan, Mangmang Sang","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00363-3","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00363-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Yemen is the poorest and war-torn country in the North Africa and Middle East region and lacks a comprehensive assessment of temporal trends in the overall disease burden, injuries, and disabilities at the country level; these insights are required to guide healthcare interventions and improve overall population health. We estimated the burden and temporal trends of diseases and their risk factors in Yemen between 1990 and 2021 using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this systematic analysis, we presented all-causes and cause-specific mortality rates, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), as well as the life expectancy at birth and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) using the standardized GBD methodology. Moreover, we compared the disease burden of Yemen with the top five war-torn countries based on the Global Peace Index (GPI) 2021, including Afghanistan, Syria, South Sudan, and Iraq.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In Yemen, the life expectancy at birth increased from 59.0 years (95% UI 56.4-61.8) in 1990 to 65.3 years (95% UI 62.2-67.9) in 2021. Between 1990 and 2021, the all-causes age-standardized mortality rate in Yemen decreased from 1471.7 deaths (95% UI 1268.4-1696.3) to 1347.2 deaths (95% UI 1097.5-1659.5). However, the age-standardized mortality rate caused by conflict and terrorism substantially increased from 1.9 deaths (95% UI 1.7-2.1) to 50.0 deaths (95% UI 45.5-55.0) between 2010 and 2021. In 2021, ischemic heart disease, COVID-19, stroke, hypertensive heart disease, conflict and terrorism, and neonatal disorders were leading causes of age-standardized mortality and YLLs rate. Dietary iron deficiency, low back pain, depressive disorders, headache disorders, anxiety disorders, and gynecological diseases were the leading causes of age-standardized YLDs rate in 2021. High blood pressure, high levels of low-density lipoprotein, smoking, low birth weight, and short gestations were the leading risk factors for age-standardized mortality in 2021. Yemen ranked 3rd in terms of high age-standardized all-causes deaths, YLLs, and lowest HALE at birth and lowest life expectancy at birth among the top five war-torn countries in 2021.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Yemen must proportionately address the burden caused by non-communicable diseases, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases, and conflict and terrorism. Prioritizing these areas will improve the overall population health and prevent premature mortality and disabilities.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"4"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11816499/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143411476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction: Empirical prediction intervals applied to short term mortality forecasts and excess deaths. 更正:应用于短期死亡率预测和超额死亡的经验预测区间。
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-02-04 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00362-4
Ricarda Duerst, Jonas Schöley
{"title":"Correction: Empirical prediction intervals applied to short term mortality forecasts and excess deaths.","authors":"Ricarda Duerst, Jonas Schöley","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00362-4","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00362-4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"3"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11796148/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143191077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How much missing data is too much to impute for longitudinal health indicators? A preliminary guideline for the choice of the extent of missing proportion to impute with multiple imputation by chained equations.
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00364-2
K P Junaid, Tanvi Kiran, Madhu Gupta, Kamal Kishore, Sujata Siwatch
{"title":"How much missing data is too much to impute for longitudinal health indicators? A preliminary guideline for the choice of the extent of missing proportion to impute with multiple imputation by chained equations.","authors":"K P Junaid, Tanvi Kiran, Madhu Gupta, Kamal Kishore, Sujata Siwatch","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00364-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00364-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE) is a widely used approach for handling missing data. However, its robustness, especially for high missing proportions in health indicators, is under-researched. The study aimed to provide a preliminary guideline for the choice of the extent of missing proportion to impute longitudinal health-related data using the MICE method.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The study obtained complete data on five mortality-related health indicators of 100 countries (2015-2019) from the Global Health Observatory. Nine incomplete datasets with missing rates from 10 to 90% were generated and imputed using MICE. The robustness of MICE was assessed through three approaches: comparison of means using the Repeated Measures- Analysis of variance, estimation of evaluation metrics (Root mean square error, mean absolute deviation, Bias, and proportionate variance), and visual inspection of box plots of imputed and non-imputed data.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The Repeated Measures- Analysis of variance revealed significant differences between complete and imputed data, primarily in imputed data with over 50% missing proportions. Evaluation metrics exhibited 'high performance' for the dataset with a 50% missing proportion for various health indicators However, with missing proportions exceeding 70%, the majority of indicators demonstrated a 'low' performance level in terms of most evaluation metrics. The visual inspection of the box plot revealed severe variance shrinkage in imputed datasets with missing proportions beyond 70%, corroborating the findings from the evaluation metrics.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>It demonstrates high robustness up to 50% missing values, with marginal deviations from complete datasets. Caution is warranted for missing proportions between 50 and 70%, as moderate alterations are observed. Proportions beyond 70% lead to significant variance shrinkage and compromised data reliability, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging imputation limitations for practical decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"2"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11787761/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143076550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Effect of census-based correction of population figures on mortality rates in Germany.
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-025-00361-5
Andreas Stang, Markus Deckert
{"title":"Effect of census-based correction of population figures on mortality rates in Germany.","authors":"Andreas Stang, Markus Deckert","doi":"10.1186/s12963-025-00361-5","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-025-00361-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The population figures in Germany are obtained by updating the results of the latest census with information from the statistics on birth, deaths and migration statistics. The Census 2011 in Germany corrected population figures, which have only been updated over a long period of time. The aim of this work is to show the effect of the census-based correction of the population figures on the magnitude of mortality rates in Germany 2011-2013.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We compared mortality rates (total, cancer, and cardiovascular disease) for the period 2011-2013 based on the uncorrected and Census 2011 corrected population figures. We also compared the effect of the choice of different standard populations in the age standardization of rates on the difference in uncorrected and corrected mortality rates.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>There is a clear decline in age-specific cancer mortality among men aged 90 and over when using the uncorrected population figures, which is reversed as soon as the corrected population figures are used. Among women, there is hardly any difference between the uncorrected and corrected mortality rates. The correction of the population figures does not lead to a qualitatively different pattern in the mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases and myocardial infarction, but it increases the magnitude of the rates, particularly for elderly men. Standard populations with higher weights at older ages produced larger corrections in mortality rates.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Even though the Census 2011 corrected nationwide mortality rates without age stratification differed only slightly from the uncorrected rates, there were noticeable increases in mortality, particularly in the city states of Hamburg and Berlin and in old age. Due to the particularly large error in the population figures in the older age range, an age standard that assigns lower weights at older ages should be used for age standardization of rates wherever possible.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"23 1","pages":"1"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11773962/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143054252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Google trend analysis of the Indian population reveals a panel of seasonally sensitive comorbid symptoms with implications for monitoring the seasonally sensitive human population. 对印度人口的谷歌趋势分析揭示了一组季节性敏感的合并症症状,这对监测季节性敏感的人口具有重要意义。
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-024-00349-7
Urmila Gahlot, Yogendra Kumar Sharma, Jaichand Patel, Sugadev Ragumani
{"title":"Google trend analysis of the Indian population reveals a panel of seasonally sensitive comorbid symptoms with implications for monitoring the seasonally sensitive human population.","authors":"Urmila Gahlot, Yogendra Kumar Sharma, Jaichand Patel, Sugadev Ragumani","doi":"10.1186/s12963-024-00349-7","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-024-00349-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Seasonal variations in the environment induce observable changes in the human physiological system and manifest as various clinical symptoms in a specific human population. Our earlier studies predicted four global severe seasonal sensitive comorbid lifestyle diseases (SCLDs), namely, asthma, obesity, hypertension, and fibrosis. Our studies further indicated that the SCLD category of the human population may be maladapted or unacclimatized to seasonal changes. The current study aimed to explore the major seasonal symptoms associated with SCLD and evaluate their seasonal linkages via Google Trends (GT). We used the Human Disease Symptom Network (HSDN) to dissect common symptoms of SCLD. We then exploited medical databases and medical literature resources in consultation with medical practitioners to narrow down the clinical symptoms associated with four SCLDs, namely, pulmonary hypertension, pulmonary fibrosis, asthma, and obesity. Our study revealed a strong association of 12 clinical symptoms with SCLD. Each clinical symptom was further subjected to GT analysis to address its seasonal linkage. The GT search was carried out in the Indian population for the period from January 2015-December 2019. In the GT analysis, 11 clinical symptoms were strongly associated with Indian seasonal changes, with the exception of hypergammaglobulinemia, due to the lack of GT data in the Indian population. These 11 symptoms also presented sudden increases or decreases in search volume during the two major Indian seasonal transition months, namely, March and November. Moreover, in addition to SCLD, several seasonally associated clinical disorders share most of these 12 symptoms. In this regard, we named these 12 symptoms the \"seasonal sensitive comorbid symptoms (SSC)\" of the human population. Further clinical studies are needed to verify the utility of these symptoms in screening seasonally maladapted human populations. We also warrant that clinicians and researcher be well aware of the limitations and pitfalls of GT before correlating the clinical outcome of SSC symptoms with GT.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"22 1","pages":"40"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11686857/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142907751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Number needed to isolate - a new population health metric to quantify transmission reductions from isolation interventions for infectious diseases. 需要隔离的人数——一种新的人口健康指标,用于量化传染病隔离干预措施减少传播的情况。
IF 3.2 2区 医学
Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI: 10.1186/s12963-024-00360-y
Aaron Prosser, Bartosz Helfer, David L Streiner
{"title":"Number needed to isolate - a new population health metric to quantify transmission reductions from isolation interventions for infectious diseases.","authors":"Aaron Prosser, Bartosz Helfer, David L Streiner","doi":"10.1186/s12963-024-00360-y","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12963-024-00360-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>We have previously developed and reported on a procedure for estimating the purported benefits of immunity mandates using a novel variant of the number needed to treat (NNT) which we called the number needed to isolate (NNI). Here we demonstrate its broader properties as a useful population health metric.</p><p><strong>Main body: </strong>The NNI is analogous to the number needed to treat (NNT = 1/ARR), except the absolute risk reduction (ARR) is the absolute transmission risk in a specific population. The NNI is the number of susceptible hosts in a population who need to be isolated to prevent one transmission event from them. The properties and utility of the NNI were modeled using simulated data and its model predictions were validated using real world data. The properties of the NNI are described for three categories of data from a previous study on transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): (1) in different settings, (2) after a specific exposure and (3) depending on symptomaticity status of susceptible hosts.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>We provide a demonstration of the utility of the NNI as a valuable population health metric to quantify the transmission reductions from isolation interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":51476,"journal":{"name":"Population Health Metrics","volume":"22 1","pages":"39"},"PeriodicalIF":3.2,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11668099/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142882684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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