Brookings Papers on Economic Activity最新文献_第7页

Epidemiological and Economic Effects of Lockdown 封锁的流行病学和经济影响

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2020.0033

Alexander Arnon, J. Ricco, Kent A. Smetters

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引用次数: 25

Comment and Discussion 评论与讨论

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2020.0041

A. Atkeson

引用次数: 0

Comment and Discussion 评论与讨论

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2020.0040

A. Fogli

引用次数: 0

Comment and Discussion 评论与讨论

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2020.0039

D. Holtz-eakin

引用次数: 0

Effects of COVID-19 on Federal, State, and Local Government Budgets COVID-19对联邦、州和地方政府预算的影响

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2020.0028

A. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Byron Lutz, Louise M. Sheiner

{"title":"Effects of COVID-19 on Federal, State, and Local Government Budgets","authors":"A. Auerbach, William G. Gale, Byron Lutz, Louise M. Sheiner","doi":"10.1353/eca.2020.0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2020.0028","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:This paper examines how the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated policy responses affected federal, state, and local government budgets. The pandemic raised federal deficits temporarily but has had a modest effect on long-term budget projections, in part because of sharply lower projections of interest rates. With low interest rates and the economy in recession, the debt accumulation resulting from the pandemic does not require immediate offsetting policies. For state and local governments, we note the unusual nature of the current recession: the concentration of job losses among low-wage workers; the unprecedented increases and expansions of unemployment insurance benefits and business loans; and strong performance by the stock market. To address these issues, we use a bottom-up approach that accounts for the geographic variation in economic outcomes. Relative to analyses based on the historical relation between revenues and the unemployment rate, we estimate notably smaller revenue losses. We further estimate that federal aid has been large relative to these revenue losses, but not necessarily relative to need—for public health, remedial schooling, services for the elderly, and others—especially if the pandemic persists and especially in certain hard-hit states.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83392256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

Comment and Discussion 评论与讨论

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2020.0042

Eric Zwick

引用次数: 1

How much do immigration and trade affect labor market outcomes? 移民和贸易对劳动力市场的影响有多大?

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.2307/2534701

G. Borjas, Richard B. Freeman, Lawrence F. Katz

引用次数: 937

On the Persistence of the China Shock 论中国冲击的持续性

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2022.0005

David Autor, David Dorn, G. Hanson

{"title":"On the Persistence of the China Shock","authors":"David Autor, David Dorn, G. Hanson","doi":"10.1353/eca.2022.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2022.0005","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT:We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period from 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed US commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55 percent of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86 percent of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population head counts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native born who are 25–39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively—but not quantitatively—similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85214921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 45

Behavior and the Dynamics of Epidemics 流行病的行为和动力学

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-05-10 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2021.0008

A. Atkeson

引用次数: 13

Comments and Discussion 意见及讨论

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2021-04-07 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2020.0019

引用次数: 0