封锁的流行病学和经济影响

IF 4.6 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS
Alexander Arnon, J. Ricco, Kent A. Smetters
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引用次数: 25

摘要

摘要:我们使用综合流行病学-计量经济学框架研究了自2020年3月开始的全国封锁期间,其中健康和经济结果共同确定。我们增加了对非药物干预(npi)和当地流行病学条件的行为反应的州级分区模型。为了校准模型,我们构建了每日县级接触率和就业率的度量,并通过事件研究设计估计关键参数。我们有三个主要发现:首先,州和地方政府引入的npi解释了全国接触率下降的一小部分,但在大流行的前三个月,它将COVID-19死亡人数减少了约25%,挽救了约3.9万人的生命。然而,在同一时期,npi也解释了近15%的就业下降——大约300万个就业岗位。其次,针对个人行为(如居家令)的npi在以更低的经济成本减少传播方面比针对企业(关闭)的npi更有效。第三,在大流行的早期阶段采取积极和精心设计的应对措施,本可在中期改善流行病学和经济结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Epidemiological and Economic Effects of Lockdown
ABSTRACT:We examine the period of national lockdown beginning in March 2020 using an integrated epidemiological-econometric framework in which health and economic outcomes are jointly determined. We augment a state-level compartmental model with behavioral responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and to local epidemiological conditions. To calibrate the model, we construct daily, county-level measures of contact rates and employment and estimate key parameters with an event study design. We have three main findings: First, NPIs introduced by state and local governments explain a small fraction of the nationwide decline in contact rates but nevertheless reduced COVID-19 deaths by about 25 percent—saving about 39,000 lives—over the first three months of the pandemic. However, NPIs also explain nearly 15 percent of the decline in employment—around 3 million jobs—over the same period. Second, NPIs that target individual behavior (such as stay-at-home orders) were more effective at reducing transmission at lower economic cost than those that target businesses (shutdowns). Third, an aggressive and well-designed response in the early stages of the pandemic could have improved both epidemiological and economic outcomes over the medium term.
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来源期刊
ACS Applied Bio Materials
ACS Applied Bio Materials Chemistry-Chemistry (all)
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
2.10%
发文量
464
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