Brookings Papers on Economic Activity最新文献

Global Transmission of Fed Hikes: The Role of Policy Credibility and Balance Sheets 美联储加息的全球传播：政策可信度和资产负债表的作用

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935420

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Filiz Unsal

{"title":"Global Transmission of Fed Hikes: The Role of Policy Credibility and Balance Sheets","authors":"Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Filiz Unsal","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935420","url":null,"abstract":"Contrary to historical episodes, the 2022–2023 tightening of US monetary policy has not yet triggered financial crisis in emerging markets. Why is this time different? To answer this question, we analyze the current situation through the lens of historical evidence. In emerging markets, the financial channel–based transmission of US policy historically led to more adverse outcomes compared to advanced economies, where the trade channel fails to smooth out these negative effects. When the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, global investors tend to shed risky assets in response to the tightening global financial conditions, affecting emerging markets more severely due to their lower credit ratings and higher risk profiles. This time around, the escape from emerging market assets and the increase in risk spreads have been limited. We document that the historical experience of higher risk spreads and capital outflows can be largely explained by the lack of credible monetary policies and dollar-denominated debt. The improvement in monetary policy frameworks combined with reduced levels of dollar-denominated debt have helped emerging markets weather the recent Federal Reserve hikes.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accounting for the Widening Mortality Gap between American Adults with and without a BA 有学士学位和没有学士学位的美国成年人死亡率差距不断扩大的原因分析

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935412

Anne Case, Angus Deaton

{"title":"Accounting for the Widening Mortality Gap between American Adults with and without a BA","authors":"Anne Case, Angus Deaton","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935412","url":null,"abstract":"We examine mortality differences between American adults with and without a four-year college degree over the period 1992 to 2021. Mortality patterns, in aggregate and across groups, can provide evidence on how well society is functioning, information that goes beyond aggregate measures of material well-being. From 1992 to 2010, both educational groups saw falling mortality, but with greater improvements for the more educated; from 2010 to 2019, mortality continued to fall for those with a four-year degree while rising for those without; during the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality rose for both groups, but markedly more rapidly for the less educated. In consequence, the mortality gap between the two groups expanded in all three periods, leading to an 8.5-year difference in adult life expectancy by the end of 2021. There have been dramatic changes in patterns of mortality since 1992, but gaps rose consistently in each of thirteen broad classifications of cause of death. We document rising gaps in other measures relevant to well-being—background factors to the rising gap in mortality—including morbidity, social isolation, marriage, family income, and wealth.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wage-Price Spirals 工资-物价螺旋上升

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935427

Guido Lorenzoni, Iván Werning

{"title":"Wage-Price Spirals","authors":"Guido Lorenzoni, Iván Werning","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935427","url":null,"abstract":"We interpret recent inflation experience through the lens of a New Keynesian model with price and wage rigidities and nonlabor inputs in inelastic supply. The model provides a natural interpretation of some features of the recent episode: an initial surge of noncore inflation, followed by a lagged response of core inflation and a further lagged, persistent response of wage inflation. The model also provides a natural way of discussing the role and the strength of wage-price spiral dynamics in price-setting models. The model interprets recent developments as symptoms of underlying supply constraints, which can be triggered by both demand and supply shocks. The immediate manifestation of these constraints is in the relative price of scarce, inelastic nonlabor inputs (including energy). The secondary effects arise because they produce a gap between lowered real wage aspirations of firms—that try to make up for higher nonlabor costs—and increased real wage aspirations of workers—caused by increased labor demand. The gap produces a wage-price spiral, which continues as long as the initial relative scarcity of nonlabor inputs persists, even though input prices are falling. In this view, the fact that nominal wage growth is currently exceeding price inflation can be given a benign interpretation, as a sign of real wages going back to trend and not necessarily as a concern of an ongoing spiral.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences? 大流行病中企业数量激增：原因与后果？

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935424

Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger

{"title":"Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?","authors":"Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935424","url":null,"abstract":"Applications for new businesses surprisingly surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, rising the most in industries rooted in pandemic-era changes to work, lifestyle, and business. The unexpected surge in applications raised questions about whether a surge in actual new employer businesses would follow. Evidence now shows increased employer business entry with notable associated job creation; and industries and locations with the largest increase in applications have had accompanying large increases in employer business entry. We also observe a tight connection between the surge in applications and quits—or close proxies for quits—both at the national and the local level. Within major cities, applications, net establishment entry, and our quits proxy each exhibit a \"donut pattern,\" with less growth in city centers than in the surrounding areas, and these patterns are closely related to patterns of work-from-home activity. Reallocation of jobs across firm age, firm size, industry, and geography groupings increased significantly. Relatedly, there is evidence of a pause of the pre-pandemic trend toward greater economic activity being concentrated at large and mature firms, but this development is quite modest in magnitude.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect 替代的力量：德国天然气大辩论回顾

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935431

Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Georg Zachmann

{"title":"The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect","authors":"Benjamin Moll, Moritz Schularick, Georg Zachmann","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935431","url":null,"abstract":"The Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022 laid bare Germany's dependence on Russian energy imports and ignited a heated debate on the costs of a cutoff from Russian gas. While one side predicted economic collapse, the other side (ours) predicted \"substantial but manageable\" economic costs due to households and firms adapting to the shock. Using the empirical evidence now at hand, this paper studies the adjustment of the German economy after Russia weaponized gas exports by cutting Germany off from gas supplies in the summer of 2022. We document two key margins of adjustment. First, Germany was able to replace substantial amounts of Russian gas with imports from third countries, underscoring the insurance provided by openness to international trade. Second, the German economy reduced gas consumption by about 20 percent, driven mostly by industry (26 percent) and households (17 percent). The economic costs of demand reduction were manageable with the economy as a whole only experiencing a mild one-quarter contraction in the winter of 2022–2023 and then stagnating. Overall industrial production decoupled from production in energy-intensive sectors (which did see large drops) and declined only slightly. We draw a number of key lessons from this important case study about the insurance offered by access to global markets and the power of substitution, specifically that supply shocks have dramatically smaller costs when elasticities of substitution are very low (but nonzero) compared to a truly zero elasticity.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Health Wedge and Labor Market Inequality 健康楔形效应与劳动力市场不平等

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a919363

Amy Finkelstein, Casey McQuillan, Owen Zidar, Eric Zwick

{"title":"The Health Wedge and Labor Market Inequality","authors":"Amy Finkelstein, Casey McQuillan, Owen Zidar, Eric Zwick","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a919363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a919363","url":null,"abstract":"Over half of the US population receives health insurance through an employer with premium contributions creating a flat \"head tax\" per worker, independent of their earnings. This paper develops and calibrates a stylized model of the labor market to explore how this uniquely American approach to financing health insurance contributes to labor market inequality. We consider a partial-equilibrium counterfactual in which employer-provided health insurance is instead financed by a statutory payroll tax on firms. We find that, under this counterfactual financing, in 2019 the college wage premium would have been 11 percent lower, noncollege annual earnings would have been $1,700 (3 percent) higher, and noncollege employment would have been nearly 500,000 higher. These calibrated labor market effects of switching from head tax to payroll tax financing are in the same ballpark as estimates of the impact of other leading drivers of labor market inequality, including changes in outsourcing, robot adoption, rising trade, unionization, and the real minimum wage. We also consider a separate partial-equilibrium counterfactual in which the current head tax financing is maintained, but 2019 US health care spending as a share of GDP is reduced to the Canadian share; here, we estimate that the 2019 college wage premium would have been 5 percent lower and noncollege annual earnings would have been 5 percent higher. These findings suggest that health care costs and the financing of health insurance warrant greater attention in both public policy and research on US labor market inequality.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139739639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

COVID-19 Credit Policies around the World: Size, Scope, Costs, and Consequences COVID-19 世界各地的信贷政策：规模、范围、成本和后果

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a919361

Gee Hee Hong, Deborah Lucas

{"title":"COVID-19 Credit Policies around the World: Size, Scope, Costs, and Consequences","authors":"Gee Hee Hong, Deborah Lucas","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a919361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a919361","url":null,"abstract":"Governments deployed credit policies on a historically unprecedented scale in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimate the effective size of credit policies for seven large advanced economies in terms of the incremental resources provided to firms and households—a measure that allows aggregation across credit support, forbearance, and traditional fiscal policies but that does not appear in traditional government statistics. These estimates are used to reassess the absolute and relative size of different governments' policy interventions and to evaluate whether taking credit policies into account can help explain the cross section of macroeconomic outcomes. Incremental resources increase from an average 14.5 percent of 2020 GDP when only fiscal policies are considered to 22 percent of 2020 GDP when credit policies are also taken into account. Incorporating credit policies also reduces the cross-country variation in the total size of policy interventions. With regard to fiscal cost, fair value estimates for these credit support programs average 37 percent of principal, with wide variation depending on program features. We also discuss several related measurement issues, the financial regulatory changes that accommodated these programs, the pros and cons of the different types of credit policies, and how in principle budgetary costs should be calculated versus how governments account for credit policies in practice.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139739643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Where Are the Missing Workers? Anticipated and Unanticipated Labor Supply Changes in the Pandemic's Aftermath 失踪的工人在哪里？大流行后劳动力供应的预期和意外变化

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a919358

Katharine G. Abraham, Lea E. Rendell

引用次数: 0

Economic Implications of the Climate Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act 通货膨胀削减法》气候条款的经济影响

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a919359

John E. T. Bistline, Neil R. Mehrotra, Catherine Wolfram

{"title":"Economic Implications of the Climate Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act","authors":"John E. T. Bistline, Neil R. Mehrotra, Catherine Wolfram","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a919359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a919359","url":null,"abstract":"The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) represents the largest US federal response to climate change to date. We highlight the key climate provisions and assess the act's potential economic impacts. Substantially higher investments in clean energy and electric vehicles imply that fiscal costs may be larger than projected. However, even at the high end, IRA provisions remain cost-effective. The IRA has large impacts on power sector investments and electricity prices, lowering retail electricity rates and resulting in negative prices in some wholesale markets. We find small quantitative macroeconomic effects, including a small decline in headline inflation, but macroeconomic conditions—particularly higher interest rates and materials costs—may have substantial negative effects on clean energy investment. We show that the subsidy approach in the IRA has expansionary supply-side effects relative to a carbon tax but, in a representative-agent dynamic model, is preferable to a carbon tax only in the presence of a strong learning-by-doing externality. We also discuss the economics of the industrial policy aspects of the act as well as the distributional impacts and the possible incidence of the different tax credits in the IRA.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139739645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

India at 75: Replete with Contradictions, Brimming with Opportunities, Saddled with Challenges 75 岁的印度：充满矛盾、机遇无限、挑战重重

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a919360

Viral V. Acharya

引用次数: 0