Brookings Papers on Economic Activity最新文献

Changing Central Bank Pressures and Inflation 不断变化的中央银行压力和通货膨胀

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2024.a943916

Hassan Afrouzi, Marina Halac, Kenneth Rogoff, Pierre Yared

引用次数: 0

Sustained Debt Reduction: The Jamaica Exception 持续减债：牙买加的例外

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2024.a943915

Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen, Peter Blair Henry

引用次数: 0

The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications 21 世纪银行业的演变：证据与监管影响

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2024.a943918

Samuel G. Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam, Daniel K. Tarullo

{"title":"The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications","authors":"Samuel G. Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam, Daniel K. Tarullo","doi":"10.1353/eca.2024.a943918","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2024.a943918","url":null,"abstract":"As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the liability side of bank balance sheets, deposits—and especially uninsured deposits—have grown rapidly. On the asset side, there has been a notable shift away from the information-intensive lending traditionally associated with banks and toward longer-term securities such as mortgage-backed securities and long-term Treasuries. These trends appear to be related, in the sense that banks with the most rapid growth in deposits have seen the biggest declines in loans as a share of assets. Thus, while the banks that failed in early 2023 were arguably extreme cases, they reflect broader trends, especially among larger banks. We construct a simple model to help assess the main regulatory options to reduce the risk of destabilizing bank runs—expanding deposit insurance and strengthening liquidity regulation—and argue that the industry trends we document favor the latter option. Using the model, we offer some design considerations for modifying the liquidity coverage ratio so as to require banks to pre-position sufficient collateral—largely in the form of short-term government securities—at the Federal Reserve's discount window to ensure they have enough liquidity to withstand a run on their uninsured deposits. We also comment briefly on some other regulatory implications of our findings, including for interest rate risk regulation and merger policy.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142670863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Impact of Vaccines and Behavior on US Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19 疫苗和行为对美国 COVID-19 累计死亡人数的影响

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2024.a943914

Andrew Atkeson, Stephen Kissler

{"title":"The Impact of Vaccines and Behavior on US Cumulative Deaths from COVID-19","authors":"Andrew Atkeson, Stephen Kissler","doi":"10.1353/eca.2024.a943914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2024.a943914","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate that the combination of changes in behavior to slow the spread of COVID-19 and the delivery of vaccines to a substantial majority of the American population by mid-2021 saved close to 800,000 American lives relative to what would have occurred had vaccines not been developed. We argue that the duration and magnitude of this behavioral response—and thus its overall success in delaying infections—came as a surprise, relative to both our historical experience with pandemic influenza and to model-based projections based on that experience. Thus, we take from our experience with COVID-19 over the past four years the important public health lesson that behavior change can be a powerful force for slowing the spread of a dangerous infectious respiratory disease for a long time. At the same time, these behavioral changes to slow the spread of COVID-19 came at a tremendous economic, social, and human cost. To avoid similar pain from mitigation in the next pandemic, we argue that we need to make investments now not only in vaccine development, but also in data infrastructure so that we can precisely target behavior-oriented mitigation efforts to minimize their economic and social impacts in the next pandemic.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"99 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142670894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Emergence of a Uniform Business Cycle in the United States: Evidence from New Claims-Based Unemployment Data 美国统一商业周期的出现：来自新的失业申请数据的证据

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2024.a943917

Andrew J. Fieldhouse, David Munro, Christoffer Koch, Sean Howard

{"title":"The Emergence of a Uniform Business Cycle in the United States: Evidence from New Claims-Based Unemployment Data","authors":"Andrew J. Fieldhouse, David Munro, Christoffer Koch, Sean Howard","doi":"10.1353/eca.2024.a943917","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2024.a943917","url":null,"abstract":"Using newly digitized unemployment insurance claims data, we construct historical monthly unemployment series for US states going back to January 1947. We validate our series, showing that they are highly correlated with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' state-level unemployment data, which are only available since January 1976, and capture consistent business cycle dynamics. We use our claims-based unemployment rates to study the postwar evolution of labor market adjustments to local demand shocks and state unemployment fluctuations around national recessions. We document: (1) a trend decrease in the dispersion of relative employment growth and unemployment across states; (2) an attenuation of relative employment, unemployment, and population responses to state-specific demand shocks in recent decades; and (3) a convergence across states in both the speed and degree to which unemployment recovers after recessions. These trends show the emergence of a national business cycle experienced more uniformly across US states, particularly since the 1960s. We present evidence suggesting that a convergence in states' industrial composition helps explain why a more uniform business cycle emerged when it did. And states' increasingly similar experience in recessions may help explain why interstate migration became a weaker adjustment mechanism in recent decades.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142670862","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why Do We Dislike Inflation? 为什么我们不喜欢通货膨胀？

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2024.a943913

Stefanie Stantcheva

{"title":"Why Do We Dislike Inflation?","authors":"Stefanie Stantcheva","doi":"10.1353/eca.2024.a943913","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2024.a943913","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on a long-standing question asked by Shiller (1997): why do we dislike inflation? I conducted two surveys on representative samples of the US population to elicit people's perceptions about the impacts of inflation and their reactions to it. The predominant reason for people's aversion to inflation is the widespread belief that it diminishes their buying power, as neither personal nor general wage increases seem to match the pace of rising prices. As a result, respondents report having to make costly adjustments in their budgets and behaviors, especially among lower income groups. Inflation also provokes stress, emotional responses, and a sense of inequity, as the wages of high-income individuals are perceived to grow more rapidly amid inflation. Many respondents believe that firms have considerable discretion in setting wages, opting not to raise them in order to boost profits, rather than being compelled by market dynamics. The potential positive associations of inflation, such as with reduced unemployment or enhanced economic activity, are typically not recognized by respondents. Inflation ranks high in priority among various economic and social issues, with respondents blaming the government and businesses for it. I also highlight a substantial polarization in attitudes toward inflation along partisan lines, as well as across income groups.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"106 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142670859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global Transmission of Fed Hikes: The Role of Policy Credibility and Balance Sheets 美联储加息的全球传播：政策可信度和资产负债表的作用

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935420

Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Filiz Unsal

{"title":"Global Transmission of Fed Hikes: The Role of Policy Credibility and Balance Sheets","authors":"Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Filiz Unsal","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935420","url":null,"abstract":"Contrary to historical episodes, the 2022–2023 tightening of US monetary policy has not yet triggered financial crisis in emerging markets. Why is this time different? To answer this question, we analyze the current situation through the lens of historical evidence. In emerging markets, the financial channel–based transmission of US policy historically led to more adverse outcomes compared to advanced economies, where the trade channel fails to smooth out these negative effects. When the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, global investors tend to shed risky assets in response to the tightening global financial conditions, affecting emerging markets more severely due to their lower credit ratings and higher risk profiles. This time around, the escape from emerging market assets and the increase in risk spreads have been limited. We document that the historical experience of higher risk spreads and capital outflows can be largely explained by the lack of credible monetary policies and dollar-denominated debt. The improvement in monetary policy frameworks combined with reduced levels of dollar-denominated debt have helped emerging markets weather the recent Federal Reserve hikes.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accounting for the Widening Mortality Gap between American Adults with and without a BA 有学士学位和没有学士学位的美国成年人死亡率差距不断扩大的原因分析

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935412

Anne Case, Angus Deaton

{"title":"Accounting for the Widening Mortality Gap between American Adults with and without a BA","authors":"Anne Case, Angus Deaton","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935412","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935412","url":null,"abstract":"We examine mortality differences between American adults with and without a four-year college degree over the period 1992 to 2021. Mortality patterns, in aggregate and across groups, can provide evidence on how well society is functioning, information that goes beyond aggregate measures of material well-being. From 1992 to 2010, both educational groups saw falling mortality, but with greater improvements for the more educated; from 2010 to 2019, mortality continued to fall for those with a four-year degree while rising for those without; during the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality rose for both groups, but markedly more rapidly for the less educated. In consequence, the mortality gap between the two groups expanded in all three periods, leading to an 8.5-year difference in adult life expectancy by the end of 2021. There have been dramatic changes in patterns of mortality since 1992, but gaps rose consistently in each of thirteen broad classifications of cause of death. We document rising gaps in other measures relevant to well-being—background factors to the rising gap in mortality—including morbidity, social isolation, marriage, family income, and wealth.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences? 大流行病中企业数量激增：原因与后果？

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935424

Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger

{"title":"Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?","authors":"Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935424","url":null,"abstract":"Applications for new businesses surprisingly surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, rising the most in industries rooted in pandemic-era changes to work, lifestyle, and business. The unexpected surge in applications raised questions about whether a surge in actual new employer businesses would follow. Evidence now shows increased employer business entry with notable associated job creation; and industries and locations with the largest increase in applications have had accompanying large increases in employer business entry. We also observe a tight connection between the surge in applications and quits—or close proxies for quits—both at the national and the local level. Within major cities, applications, net establishment entry, and our quits proxy each exhibit a \"donut pattern,\" with less growth in city centers than in the surrounding areas, and these patterns are closely related to patterns of work-from-home activity. Reallocation of jobs across firm age, firm size, industry, and geography groupings increased significantly. Relatedly, there is evidence of a pause of the pre-pandemic trend toward greater economic activity being concentrated at large and mature firms, but this development is quite modest in magnitude.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Wage-Price Spirals 工资-物价螺旋上升

IF 5.9 3区经济学

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Pub Date : 2024-08-28 DOI: 10.1353/eca.2023.a935427

Guido Lorenzoni, Iván Werning

{"title":"Wage-Price Spirals","authors":"Guido Lorenzoni, Iván Werning","doi":"10.1353/eca.2023.a935427","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2023.a935427","url":null,"abstract":"We interpret recent inflation experience through the lens of a New Keynesian model with price and wage rigidities and nonlabor inputs in inelastic supply. The model provides a natural interpretation of some features of the recent episode: an initial surge of noncore inflation, followed by a lagged response of core inflation and a further lagged, persistent response of wage inflation. The model also provides a natural way of discussing the role and the strength of wage-price spiral dynamics in price-setting models. The model interprets recent developments as symptoms of underlying supply constraints, which can be triggered by both demand and supply shocks. The immediate manifestation of these constraints is in the relative price of scarce, inelastic nonlabor inputs (including energy). The secondary effects arise because they produce a gap between lowered real wage aspirations of firms—that try to make up for higher nonlabor costs—and increased real wage aspirations of workers—caused by increased labor demand. The gap produces a wage-price spiral, which continues as long as the initial relative scarcity of nonlabor inputs persists, even though input prices are falling. In this view, the fact that nominal wage growth is currently exceeding price inflation can be given a benign interpretation, as a sign of real wages going back to trend and not necessarily as a concern of an ongoing spiral.","PeriodicalId":51405,"journal":{"name":"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142084699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0