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New evidence on crude oil market efficiency 原油市场效率的新证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-11-05 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13189
Liang Hu, Yoon-Jin Lee
{"title":"New evidence on crude oil market efficiency","authors":"Liang Hu,&nbsp;Yoon-Jin Lee","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13189","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13189","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper examines the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in crude oil amid the “financialization of commodity markets” and the “fracking revolution”. It applies the generalized spectral derivative test (Hong and Lee 2005) on both West Texas Intermediate and Brent spot and futures markets, alongside a stochastic dominance test (Linton et al., 2005) to investigate arbitrage opportunities across markets and benchmarks. The findings indicate that financialization has made each market more efficient but also created more arbitrage opportunities in spot-futures markets at both benchmarks. The fracking revolution has fragmented oil markets but had little impact on EMH in individual markets or across markets.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135726224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynare replication of “A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation” by Eggertsson et al. (2019) Eggertsson等人(2019)“长期停滞模型:理论与定量评估”的动态复制
4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13185
Alex Crescentini, Federico Giri
{"title":"Dynare replication of “A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation” by Eggertsson et al. (2019)","authors":"Alex Crescentini, Federico Giri","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.13185","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper replicates the study “A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation” by Eggertsson et al. using the Dynare toolkit. Replication is important as it confirms the results of the original article, provides a user‐friendly version using Dynare, and shows how to deal with large‐scale models with occasionally binding constraints. The results show that the original Matlab code was fully replicated, but minor discrepancies were found between the paper's equations and the code. The two models produce similar dynamics but with small differences, particularly at the beginning of the simulation.","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135220863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting 外部冲击对政治观点和民粹主义投票的持久影响
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-10-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13184
Eugenio Levi, Isabelle Sin, Steven Stillman
{"title":"The lasting impact of external shocks on political opinions and populist voting","authors":"Eugenio Levi,&nbsp;Isabelle Sin,&nbsp;Steven Stillman","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13184","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13184","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use electoral survey data linked to disaggregated geographical data to examine the impact that two external shocks had on the initial development and long-term success of New Zealand First (NZF), one of the oldest populist parties in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, as well as their short and long-run impact on voting and political opinions. We find that people exposed to both structural and immigration reforms were more likely to initially vote for NZF and permanently changed their political attitudes and policy preferences. Exposure to these shocks plays an important role in explaining the rise and continued success of populism in New Zealand.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13184","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136233093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Why do older scholars slow down? 为什么年长的学者会放慢脚步？
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13186
Daniel S. Hamermesh, Lea-Rachel Kosnik
{"title":"Why do older scholars slow down?","authors":"Daniel S. Hamermesh,&nbsp;Lea-Rachel Kosnik","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13186","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13186","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using data describing all “Top 5” economics journal publications from 1969 to 2018, we examine what determines which authors produce less as they age and which retire earlier. Sub-field has no impact on the rate of production, but interacts with it to alter retirement probabilities. A positive, tentative, and contemporary writing style increases persistence in publishing. Authors whose previous work was more heavily cited produce slightly more. Those better-cited with more top-flight publications retire later than others. Declining publication with age arises mostly from habit—there is a very significant increasing positive autocorrelation of publication across the decades of a career.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136318776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do unconditional cash transfers increase fertility? Lessons from a large-scale program 无条件现金转移会提高生育率吗？大规模计划的经验教训
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13187
Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, Nasir Iqbal, Saima Nawaz, Siew Ling Yew
{"title":"Do unconditional cash transfers increase fertility? Lessons from a large-scale program","authors":"Sefa Awaworyi Churchill,&nbsp;Nasir Iqbal,&nbsp;Saima Nawaz,&nbsp;Siew Ling Yew","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13187","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13187","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the impact of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on fertility. We develop a theoretical model that demonstrates how UCTs affect fertility decisions, time allocations for leisure, labor and childrearing, and child health through health spending. We then empirically examine the impact of UCTs on fertility in Pakistan. Our theoretical model suggests that under certain conditions, UCTs are likely to increase fertility if UCTs increase child health regardless of how they affect parental leisure, labor and childrearing time. The empirical results suggest that UCTs have a positive effect on fertility.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13187","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135366699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Locked down in distress: A quasi-experimental estimation of the mental-health fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic 在痛苦中被禁锢：COVID-19 大流行对心理健康影响的准实验性评估
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13181
Lina Anaya, Peter Howley, Muhammad Waqas, Gaston Yalonetzky
{"title":"Locked down in distress: A quasi-experimental estimation of the mental-health fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Lina Anaya,&nbsp;Peter Howley,&nbsp;Muhammad Waqas,&nbsp;Gaston Yalonetzky","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13181","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13181","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use a large-scale longitudinal survey with a differences-in-differences research design to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental health in the United Kingdom. We report substantial increases in psychological distress for the population overall during the first wave. These impacts were not uniformly distributed, with the mental health costs being more pronounced for females, younger cohorts, the black, Asian and minority ethnic community, and migrants. We also identified characteristics capable of predicting resilience to the mental health effects. We find that people with financial worries, loneliness or living in overcrowded dwellings experienced significantly worse mental health deterioration during the first wave.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13181","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135883480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Race and the Income-Achievement Gap 种族与收入-成就差距
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13182
Ryan Bacic, Angela Zheng
{"title":"Race and the Income-Achievement Gap","authors":"Ryan Bacic,&nbsp;Angela Zheng","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13182","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13182","url":null,"abstract":"<p>A large literature documents a positive correlation between parental income and child test scores. In this paper, we study whether this relationship, the dependence of the cognitive skills of children on the socioeconomic resources of their parents, varies across race. Using education data linked to tax records, we find that the income-achievement gap is small for East Asian children while significantly larger for Indigenous children. School-level factors explains a large portion of the variation in the gap across race. Our results suggest that the large income-achievement gap for Indigenous students stems partially from inequality in special needs diagnoses.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136114055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Measurement errors in popular night lights data may bias estimated impacts of economic sanctions: Evidence from closing the Kaesong Industrial Zone 流行夜灯数据中的测量误差可能会使经济制裁的估计影响出现偏差：关闭开城工业区的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13183
Bonggeun Kim, John Gibson, Geua Boe-Gibson
{"title":"Measurement errors in popular night lights data may bias estimated impacts of economic sanctions: Evidence from closing the Kaesong Industrial Zone","authors":"Bonggeun Kim,&nbsp;John Gibson,&nbsp;Geua Boe-Gibson","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13183","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13183","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Satellite-detected night lights data are widely used to evaluate economic impacts of sanctions. Such data should be free from political manipulation. However, measurement errors in these data, from blurring and bottom-coding, are rarely considered. To study such errors, we use a difference-in-differences analysis of impacts of closing the Kaesong Industrial Zone in North Korea—a sanction South Korea imposed in 2016. Luminosity in the affected region declined by a precisely estimated 50 percent. When using the popular Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) night lights data the apparent impacts are imprecisely estimated and far smaller. Measurement errors in DMSP data may distort evaluations of sanctions.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecin.13183","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136098193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Political hierarchy spillovers: Evidence from China 政治等级溢出效应：来自中国的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13179
Meng-Ting Chen, Jiakai Zhang
{"title":"Political hierarchy spillovers: Evidence from China","authors":"Meng-Ting Chen,&nbsp;Jiakai Zhang","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13179","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13179","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper explores the impact of the political hierarchies of cities in China from different perspectives. First, we examine the economic disparities between prefectural cities and municipalities. Furthermore, this paper draws upon a quasi- experiment to analyze the impact of upgrading Chongqing to a municipality in 1997 using the synthetic control method. The city-upgrading policy significantly increased Chongqing's gross domestic product (GDP) in the following 4 years. Finally, we find that the policy increased GDP in treated cities within 1200 km of Chongqing by about 10%–13% relative to the control cities.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135386704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Did pandemic unemployment benefits increase unemployment? Evidence from early state-level expirations 大流行病失业救济金是否增加了失业率？州一级早期到期的证据
IF 1.8 4区 经济学
Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2023-09-23 DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13180
Harry J. Holzer, Glenn Hubbard, Michael R. Strain
{"title":"Did pandemic unemployment benefits increase unemployment? Evidence from early state-level expirations","authors":"Harry J. Holzer,&nbsp;Glenn Hubbard,&nbsp;Michael R. Strain","doi":"10.1111/ecin.13180","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecin.13180","url":null,"abstract":"<p>During the 2021 pandemic year, the generosity of Unemployment Insurance benefits was expanded (Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation [FPUC]) and eligibility for benefits was broadened (Pandemic Unemployment Assistance [PUA]). These two programs were set to expire in September 2021. In June 2021, 18 states exited both FPUC and PUA and three states exited FPUC (but not PUA). Using Current Population Survey data and a wide range of estimation methods, we find that the flow of unemployed workers into employment increased by around two-thirds following early exit among prime-age workers. We also find evidence of reductions in state-level unemployment rates, increases in employment-populations ratios, and reductions in the share of households that had no difficulty meeting expenses.</p>","PeriodicalId":51380,"journal":{"name":"Economic Inquiry","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2023-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135965622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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