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Analysis of the State and Development of the Economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Conditions of Digitalization and Implementation of Strategic Reforms 数字化和战略改革实施条件下乌兹别克斯坦共和国经济现状与发展分析
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-47-55
B. A. Begalov, I. E. Zhukovskaya, A. A. Mamadzhanov
{"title":"Analysis of the State and Development of the Economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the Conditions of Digitalization and Implementation of Strategic Reforms","authors":"B. A. Begalov, I. E. Zhukovskaya, A. A. Mamadzhanov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-47-55","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-47-55","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the development of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan in the context of digital transformation, as well as reforms aimed at liberalizing all aspects of public life, democratizing the state and society, as well as identifying the best practices for modernizing industries and areas of the national economy to achieve the highest results of the country’s competitiveness in the world economic market.Materials and methods. The main sources for analysis and preparation for publication of this article were official statistical data from the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. When writing the article, the authors used methods of statistical analysis of quantitative data, synthesis, methods of systematic generalization of the results of questionnaires and expert surveys, monographic research, methods of working with specialized software products, digital platforms and services, as well as specialized methods of searching and processing data when working with statistical reports and analytical information presented on the corporate portal of the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan.Results. The authors of the article studied the regulatory framework for reforming the national economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, analyzed the digital mechanisms for implementing the strategy “Digital Uzbekistan - 2030” and, based on a thorough study of the strategic directions of economic development, revealed that the reforms being implemented, high demands and responsibility for fulfilling the set goals tasks to achieve goals are quite effective. In addition, this study showed that the applied digital solutions, such as digital platforms and digital services specially developed for the field of statistics, artificial intelligence technologies, BIGDATA, cloud computing, business analytical engines, as well as specialized software products, the ability to work with mobile devices and the use of satellite navigation to collect statistical data in the regions of the country make it possible to conduct a multidimensional analysis of business processes of economic objects of the national economy and develop optimal management decisions for the further effective development of industries and spheres of the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan.Conclusion. Research conducted as part of this paper shows that today, within the framework of strategies developed in the Republic of Uzbekistan for the effective development of the country’s economy, good results have been achieved. However, in certain sectors and areas of the national economy, qualitative transformations are still needed, based on the introduction of advanced methodological foundations, innovative technological and management solutions in order to increase the country’s competitiveness. It is necessary to further improve the technical and technological base of industrial and agricultural ","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141821125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cointegration Analysis of the Interaction Between Changes in the Exchange Rates of the Us Dollar and Azerbaijani Manat With the Turkish Lira 美元和阿塞拜疆马纳特与土耳其里拉汇率变动之间相互作用的协整分析
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-56-63
N. G. Burjaliyeva
{"title":"Cointegration Analysis of the Interaction Between Changes in the Exchange Rates of the Us Dollar and Azerbaijani Manat With the Turkish Lira","authors":"N. G. Burjaliyeva","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-56-63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-56-63","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The article scrutinizes the prerequisites for the manifestation of cointegration associations amid the fluctuations in the AZN/TL and USD/TL exchange rates during the initial half of 2023, under the circumstances characterized by the precipitous depreciation of the Turkish lira.Materials and methods. The study employs contemporary econometric methodologies, encompassing the Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, vector error correction, and other pertinent approaches.Results. The research dynamically scrutinizes the underlying causes of the Turkish lira’s devaluation, its impact on the economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and its influence on the AZN/TL exchange rate. A cointegration model of reciprocal influence was established through the accurate application of econometric tests. The imbalance recovery coefficient was found to be -0.933745, ensuring that the trajectory reverts to its original state in the subsequent moment after deviating from the equilibrium state. In the case of USD/TL the first order differences, this coefficient is -0.242442, albeit statistically insignificant. The interpretation of the established model indicates that the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar does not exert a significant impact on the fluctuations in the AZN/TL exchange rate.Conclusion. The findings of the research indicate that while the USD/TL does exert an influence on the AZN/TL, the devaluation of the Turkish lira does not significantly impact the economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan.","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141823188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Need for Construction of Cargo Ships Under Sanctions Pressure 评估在制裁压力下建造货船的必要性
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-07-18 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-4-13
N. V. Brikotnina
{"title":"Assessment of the Need for Construction of Cargo Ships Under Sanctions Pressure","authors":"N. V. Brikotnina","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-4-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-3-4-13","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The main factor influencing the market for transport and logistics services in the Russian Federation in 2022 is the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation. As a result, consequences such as border closures, volatility in global commodity markets, and contraction in demand for goods and services have had a significant impact on the shipbuilding industry. Due to sanctions pressure and the deterioration of the technical feasibility of constructing offshore and river facilities at enterprises of the Russian Federation, the volume of potential orders has decreased. In this regard, the purpose of the study is to assess the need for the construction of cargo ships under sanctions pressure, by improving the methods of long-term forecasting.Materials and methods. The sources of information for the calculations were official data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Russian Classification Society; forecast values from departments and analytical agencies were also used. To forecast the volume of cargo transportation by water transport, the method of multiple correlation and regression analysis was used.Results. The forecast of the volume of transportation of certain types of goods is calculated, taking into account the influence of key economic and political factors. Based on forecasts of the cargo base, exports, imports, construction, decommissioning of ships and the current state of the fleet, an assessment of the need for the construction of cargo ships under sanctions pressure until 2030 was carried out. Calculations of the need for water transport were carried out within the framework of two forecast models – optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The optimistic one provides for further updating of vessels according to the current trend (emphasis is placed on repairs; it is assumed that only 1-2% of watercrafts will be taken out of service). The pessimistic option implies a large-scale replacement of the old cargo fleet by 2030 (with the decommissioning of all ships that have become unusable). By 2030, the demand for marine vessels will range from 452 units to 1307 units, depending on market conditions. The demand for river and river-sea vessels will range from 1433 units to 6485 units. The results of the study showed that the need for vessels stated in the Strategy is insufficient to meet the needs of the water market.Conclusion. This approach can be used when updating the development Strategy of the shipbuilding industry.","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141826155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Structural Changes in the Dynamics of China’s Exports and Imports 中国进出口动态的结构性变化
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-60-71
V. V. Narbut, T. I. Chinaeva, E. I. Larionova
{"title":"Structural Changes in the Dynamics of China’s Exports and Imports","authors":"V. V. Narbut, T. I. Chinaeva, E. I. Larionova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-60-71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-60-71","url":null,"abstract":"The economic policy pursued has turned China into a major trading power. In terms of GDP, the Chinese economy has been the first economy in the world for a number of recent years; China’s rapidly growing trade flows have made it the largest trading partner for many countries. Over the past twenty years there has been rapid growth in exports and imports. The article puts forward a hypothesis about the presence of structural instability in the dynamics of Chinese exports for the period from 2000 to 2020. The hypothesis was confirmed and two periods were identified in the dynamics of exports and imports with different natures of the main development trend: from 2000 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2020. For each stage, trend equations were selected that describe the dynamics of exports and imports and an interval forecast of indexes for 2021 was made. Materials and methods. During the work, dynamic, structural analysis of analytical and statistical information was used; methods of analytical, logical, systemic, correlation and regression analysis were used, as well as analysis of structural changes. The analysis was carried out using the Statistica 10.0 program.Results. A change in the value of the import coverage ratio by exports was revealed before and after structural changes in the dynamics of the main foreign economic indexes and an assessment of their statistical significance was given. An analysis of the influence of export dynamics on GDP dynamics was carried out and it was found that before structural changes, the influence of export dynamics on GDP dynamics was statistically insignificant, and after a structural change, export dynamics began to have a direct impact on changes in China’s GDP. Conclusion. Analysis of official statistical data on the main indexes of China’s foreign economic activity for the period from 2000 to 2020 allowed us to note that the volume of Chinese exports increased over the period 2010-2019 from $1.58 trillion in 2010 (10.34% of global exports), to $2.50 trillion in 2019 (12.81% of global exports). In 2019, China continued to rank first in terms of export value among all countries in the world. Despite the challenging year of 2020, China’s exports reached almost 2.6 trillion US dollars and increased by 4% compared to 2019.China also occupies a leading position in the export of high-tech goods - their volume is 731.9 billion US dollars, the share of exports in the global volume is 25%. At the same time, the dynamics of Chinese exports for the period from 2000 to 2020 was heterogeneous and characterized by structural instability. Two stages can be distinguished with different characteristics of the main development trend: from 2000 to 2008 and from 2009 to 2020. Based on this, the authors came to the conclusion that to describe the main trend in the development of export and import dynamics for the period from 2000 to 2008, the exponential model is best suited. To describe the main trend in the development of export and i","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140963412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Illegal Activities of Cartel Organizations in the Field of Public Procurement as a New Object of Statistical Study 作为统计研究新对象的卡特尔组织在公共采购领域的非法活动
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-83-95
A. E. Lyapin
{"title":"Illegal Activities of Cartel Organizations in the Field of Public Procurement as a New Object of Statistical Study","authors":"A. E. Lyapin","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-83-95","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-83-95","url":null,"abstract":"The sphere of public procurement and the disbursement of budget funds in all countries is an environment that attracts not only respectable entrepreneurs who want to make guaranteed money, but also various “criminal white-collar elements.” According to various estimates, the volume of financing for public procurement in the Russian Federation occupies up to one third of the total GDP. A large number of labor and financial resources are involved in this area, while regularly changing legislation in this area, as well as the complexity of procurement procedures for different categories of goods, works, and services create favorable conditions and allow unscrupulous bidders, as well as corrupt customer representatives, to obtain unjustified profits and illegal remuneration. In the current situation, the introduction of new control measures becomes vital to ensure fair competition and efficient use of budget funds. That is why additional research and measures aimed at eliminating these problems and the preconditions for their occurrence are an integral part of ensuring the effectiveness of the public procurement system and protecting public interests.Purpose of the research is to study the genesis of cartel agreements in public procurement and their impact on the implementation of national projects in the Russian Federation, as well as the impact of cartel agreements on the presence of healthy competition and the efficiency of spending budget funds. As part of the paper, the state of crime in this area was examined; the signs of cartel agreements, methods for identifying cartels, as well as signs of collusion between the customer and the participant in public procurement were identified.Methods and materials. The author in his paper applies a comprehensive methodological approach, including analysis of statistical data, methods of the general theory of statistics, as well as methods of synthesis and analysis. The main attention is paid to the analysis of the current legal regulation in the field of public procurement. Graphical and tabular methods were used to visualize statistical data. The study is based on data provided by the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia, the Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation, the Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation and the Judicial Department of the Supreme Court.Results of the study. The paper made a quantitative assessment of the scope of public procurement in recent years, and assessed the work carried out by law enforcement officials and the antimonopoly service. Typical violations of antimonopoly legislation during public procurement are given and methods for identifying them are proposed. The illegal schemes used by cartel participants in electronic trading are analyzed, as well as problematic issues and ways to resolve them that arise in practice. The paper proposes various approaches to increasing the efficiency of law enforcement and contro","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140963197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Statistics as an Essential Element of Modern Hybrid Warfares 统计是现代混合战争的基本要素
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-4-10
M. Karmanov
{"title":"Statistics as an Essential Element of Modern Hybrid Warfares","authors":"M. Karmanov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-4-10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-4-10","url":null,"abstract":"The relevance of the study lies in the fact that at present, information flows, often based on “falsification” of data, are having an increasing influence. And statistics act as such a tool.Purpose of the study. The purpose of this paper is to study opinions and approaches to the use of statistics to conduct information wars.Materials and methods. The study examined the main directions of statistics as a tool for working with data. The most common and practically justified is the use of statistics as a tool of knowledge, management, propaganda and control. The result of interpreting statistical data primarily depends on the degree of objectivity and level of literacy of those who work with the data: both at the initial stage of the original data array, and at the stage of explaining the resulting values.Results. It was revealed that the same parameters (proportions) can be interpreted in completely different ways. Such differences arise both from the subjectivity of the perception of these data and from the degree of elaboration of the material. As a result, a field for discrepancies and discussion arises.Conclusion. Statistics have already become an integral component of wars of a new format, where the battle for people’s worldview becomes the basis for further presence in many spheres of life. But with competent, properly structured and timely statistical information, it is possible to suppress falsely generated data and inflict damage on the enemy that significantly exceeds direct military clashes on the battlefield.","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140973408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Dynamics of Structural Changes in the Socio-Economic Environment and Their Typology in the Context of a Statistical Approach 以统计方法评估社会经济环境结构变化的动态及其类型
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-11-20
N. D. Kremlev
{"title":"Assessment of the Dynamics of Structural Changes in the Socio-Economic Environment and Their Typology in the Context of a Statistical Approach","authors":"N. D. Kremlev","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-11-20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-2-11-20","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to substantiate the documentation for assessing the dynamics of structural changes in the socio-economic environment and their typology. The relevance of the study is related to the problems of reflecting the socio-economic environment, which affect the efficiency of economic activity. To address these issues, many regions of the country have adopted regional development strategies for the period up to 2030, which correspond to the national development goals of the Russian Federation. Various approaches of scientists to determining the essence and significance of the socio-economic environment, which is defined as a set of conditions and factors that influence all sectors of the economy, are studied.Methods: structural, index, comparative estimates and methodology of the system of national accounts.Results: the article uses a digital meter as a reproduction of the population and gross regional product (GRP), which objectively reflect the structural changes and typologies of the regions. GRP is calculated by types of economic activity, at the stages of: production, income generation and final consumption of households 2012-2021. Typologies of the Ural regions have been developed according to the following criteria: specialization of the economy, the position of the region in production, by types of primary income and final consumption of households per capita.Conclusion: the advantage of the statistical approach of studying the assessment of the dynamics of structural changes in the socio-economic environment and their typology allows us to get a more objective idea of the prevailing trends and the state of the regional economy. The results obtained made it possible to formulate a methodological basis for future scientific research in the field of structural changes in the meso-environment and socio-economic behavior of the population. They can also be used as a methodological basis for the development of public policy measures and strategies for sustainable development of territories in the future.","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140977093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shift-Share Method in Assessing the Interrelation of Employment Dynamics in Cities and Regions 评估城市和地区就业动态相互关系的换位分享法
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-33-45
I. A. Zalmanov
{"title":"Shift-Share Method in Assessing the Interrelation of Employment Dynamics in Cities and Regions","authors":"I. A. Zalmanov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-33-45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-33-45","url":null,"abstract":"   Purpose of the study. The aim of the study is to analyze the dynamics of employment in major cities of the Russian Federation, including megacities, in the context of rapid innovative development, complex demographic situation, and instability of external migration flows.   The research focuses on identifying factors at various levels that affect employment, with an emphasis on the interconnections of cities and regions in the hierarchical “city-region” system.   Materials and methods. The paper explores the shift-share method (SSM), which allows decomposing changes in employment with highlighting the influence of the overall dynamics of the regional labor market, industry characteristics, and competitive factors of cities. A multilevel analysis using this method aims to assess the structural-dynamic links of the hierarchically interconnected “city-region” system. The research uses municipal statistics data from 81 cities of the Russian Federation for the period from 2017 to 2021. Based on the concept of sectoral division of the economy, taking into account the functional features of the included industries, the structural-dynamic employment indexes in cities were analyzed across four economic sectors.   Results. The application of the SSM method yielded results that allow for a detailed examination of employment dynamics in major cities. The analysis includes the influence of the overall dynamics of the regional labor market, industry characteristics, and competitive factors of cities. The research validates the effectiveness of the shift-share method for the preliminary analysis of employment dynamics in cities with the aim of specifying the significance of the impact on it by industrial and sectoral factors at regional and local levels and their prioritization for further analysis and the development of recommendations for urban economic management.   Conclusion. The study highlights the importance of analyzing employment in the context of the urban economy, especially under conditions of rapid innovative development and demographic challenges. The SSM method appears to be an effective tool for preliminary examination of employment dynamics, identifying key factors, and developing management strategies aimed at improving the economic development of Russia’s major cities.","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140080546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Analytical Capabilities of Statistical Methodology for Assessing Threats to Economic Security 评估经济安全威胁的统计方法的分析能力
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-15-23
D. V. Dianov, E. I. Kuznetsova
{"title":"Analytical Capabilities of Statistical Methodology for Assessing Threats to Economic Security","authors":"D. V. Dianov, E. I. Kuznetsova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-15-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-15-23","url":null,"abstract":"   Subject. Reduction of threats to economic security based on the construction of multifactorial statistical models that quantify the impact of factors on the level of economic crime, in particular, on the scale of material damage from economic crime.   Purposes. Adaptation and application of statistical methodology for complex quantitative assessment of threats to economic security, multifactor modeling of patterns and trends of economic crime.   Methods. Applied methods of multidimensional classification - cluster analysis, correlation and regression, trend models and forecasting.   Results. Statistical modeling was carried out in the context of clusters formed during the study, reflecting the specification of their regions based on the application of statistical methodology for the typologization of the regions of the Russian Federation and the construction of multifactorial statistical models that quantitatively describe the impact of factors on the level of economic crime (the scale of material damage from economic crime).   Conclusions. The results of the conducted research can be used in information and analytical work and activities of departments of internal affairs bodies, public administration bodies to develop directions for reducing economic security risks from criminalization factors. The obtained substantiation of the significance of the factors provides the basis for their inclusion in the dynamic regression model, according to which it is advisable to create short-term forecasts of the crime level of an economic orientation.","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140266792","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Statistical Study of the Russian Financial System under Sanctions 制裁下的俄罗斯金融体系统计研究
Statistics and Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-24-32
V. V. Narbut, V. Salin, E. P. Shpakovskaya
{"title":"Statistical Study of the Russian Financial System under Sanctions","authors":"V. V. Narbut, V. Salin, E. P. Shpakovskaya","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-24-32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2024-1-24-32","url":null,"abstract":"   Purpose of the study. The imposition of sanctions on the financial sector and suspending relations with international financial institutions in 2022 has significantly affected the external conditions for the development of the domestic financial sector, caused an increase in geopolitical tensions and instability in the Russian currency market. It is necessary to study and understand the processes currently taking place in the financial market. The article is devoted to the statistical assessment of the impact of sanctions on the Russian financial system in 2022 and 2023.   The purpose of research paper is to identify the situation on the currency, money and credit, debt market, as well as in the budgetary sphere, to assess the relationship between the dynamics of key financial indexes in the sanctions crisis.   Materials and methods. The sources of information for the calculations were official data from the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, the provider of data on financial markets Cbonds and PJSC “Moscow Exchange”. The article used statistical methods of analysis: variations, dynamics, hypothesis testing. Determination of anomalous levels of the time series was carried out using the Irwin method. Differences in average federal budget indexes were assessed using the Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test. The dependence of the dynamics of the main financial indexes was assessed on the basis of time series correlation.   Results. The study allowed us to conclude that 2022 was a critical year for the Russian financial system. All its sectors were affected by sanctions restrictions. The weakening of the national currency was revealed in the currency market, and it was found that the dollar exchange rate in 2023 was abnormally high for the period from 2000 to 2023. The budget sector hasdemonstrated stability. The results of the study showed that the sanctions pressure did not affect the revenue part of the federal budget. However, the average monthly expenditure of the federal budget increased statistically significantly by almost three times in 2022. The monetary market reacted with an excessive supply of money. The increase in the money supply has reached its highest value in the last 10 years. The money supply growth was accompanied by changes in its structure. The banking sector showed the development of the credit growth trend. The debt market reacted with a rapid growth of corporate bonds volume, the highest for the last 10 years. And the market of federal loan bonds was characterized by a rapid reduction in the volume of federal loan bonds owned by non-residents and a decrease in the share of non-residents. The interrelation between the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate and the volume of corporate lending associated with the conversion of loans in US dollars and euros into yuan was revealed. Direct interrelation was observed in the dynamics of money supply and the volume of corporate bonds and federal loan bonds","PeriodicalId":513068,"journal":{"name":"Statistics and Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140266213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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