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Simulating emergency patient flow during the COVID-19 pandemic 模拟新冠肺炎大流行期间的紧急患者流动
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-12-30 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.2015259
Thomas Reiten Bovim, Anders N. Gullhav, H. Andersson, Jostien Dale, Kjetil Karlsen
{"title":"Simulating emergency patient flow during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Thomas Reiten Bovim, Anders N. Gullhav, H. Andersson, Jostien Dale, Kjetil Karlsen","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.2015259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.2015259","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The work presented in this paper is based on two projects that were conducted at St. Olavs Hospital (Norway) when preparing for the COVID-19 pandemic. Three discrete event simulation models are provided to evaluate the resource requirements during the peak of the pandemic. First, we estimate the number of beds needed in the emergency department (ED). In the second model, we estimate the number of ambulances required to maintain prepandemic response times for emergency patients. The third model is a coupling of the two former models, and it is used to study the effects of ED boarding time for COVID-19 patients. The resource needs are analysed under different COVID-19 testing policies. A strict testing policy increases the bed requirements in the ED, while it has the opposite effect for ambulances. Two distinct mechanisms causing boarding time are found. The effects from boarding time are most prominent during night and weekends.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"407 - 421"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42622445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
An integrated HFMEA simulation-based multi-objective optimisation model to improve the performances of hospitals: A case study 基于HFMEA仿真的综合多目标优化模型提高医院绩效：一个案例研究
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.2015260
Zeinab Rahimi Rise, M. Ershadi
{"title":"An integrated HFMEA simulation-based multi-objective optimisation model to improve the performances of hospitals: A case study","authors":"Zeinab Rahimi Rise, M. Ershadi","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.2015260","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.2015260","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT There are many problems with hospital departments that decrease patients’ satisfaction and hospitals’ performance. Although there are many qualitative and quantitative methods to improve related performances, some of them consider a single department and the rest don't consider related priorities. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated model based on Six Sigma to consider the performances of all departments with priorities based on experts’ knowledge. This model utilizes qualitative methods including fishbone diagrams and Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis to find problems and their priorities based on experts’ knowledge and data. Then, quantitative methods including a mathematical model, Discrete Event Simulation, and Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II are utilized to find solutions for preferred problems as a simulation-based multi-objective optimization model. Based on a case study in a well-known general hospital, the proposed model finds the hospital’s most important problems and represents the impacts of different improvement plans before implementation.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"422 - 443"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41851599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
A system dynamics model for industrial symbiosis capacity formation 产业共生能力形成的系统动力学模型
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-12-12 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.2007807
Zhiguo Wang, T. S. Ng, weir Ee
{"title":"A system dynamics model for industrial symbiosis capacity formation","authors":"Zhiguo Wang, T. S. Ng, weir Ee","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.2007807","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.2007807","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Industrial symbiosis involves the coordination and cooperation of different production firms to exchange and reuse waste products as substitute input materials, reducing virgin material consumption and waste disposal. This work develops a system dynamics model to simulate the capacity investment and formation patterns of self-interested production agents involved in an industrial symbiosis network. The developed model can help decision-makers visualise the rate and dynamics of capacity formation and waste material exchanges in the system, test the effect of different capacity planning and incentivisation strategies, and investigate the impact of price disruptions. Numerical studies are performed based on a bread waste case study in Singapore. Various sensitivity analyses have been conducted and several important insights are obtained from the simulation results, including how a coordinated capacity formation model can be more effective than an uncoordinated one in the industrial symbiosis.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"381 - 406"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43388766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Simulation of online food ordering delivery strategies using multi-agent system models 基于多智能体系统模型的在线订餐配送策略仿真
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.2007808
Guangyu Zou, Ming Gao, Jiafu Tang, L. Yilmaz
{"title":"Simulation of online food ordering delivery strategies using multi-agent system models","authors":"Guangyu Zou, Ming Gao, Jiafu Tang, L. Yilmaz","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.2007808","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.2007808","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT With the rapid development of Online to Offline (O2O) business, millions of transactions each day along with the varying processing time of merchants and the complexity of traffic conditions pose significant challenges to effective and efficient delivery of orders. This paper studies the complex adaptive dynamics of O2O platforms by combining the behaviors of customers, merchants, dispatcher, and couriers in the context of a multi-agent model. Serving as a testbed, the simulation model enables the evaluation of alternative order delivery strategies. Preliminary experimental results show that TSP-based delivery strategy is more efficient than the nearer merchant assignment strategy. As an important property, the larger load capacity of couriers is beneficial to improve the completion rate of orders rather than the completion time. Finally, the experiment using the real road network and the real order data demonstrates the applicability of the proposed multi-agent model of O2O platform in the real scenario.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"297 - 311"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44420235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Implementing hybrid simulations that integrate DES+SD in Python 在Python中实现集成DES+SD的混合模拟
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-11-09 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1992312
Geraint I. Palmer, Yawen Tian
{"title":"Implementing hybrid simulations that integrate DES+SD in Python","authors":"Geraint I. Palmer, Yawen Tian","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1992312","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1992312","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Implementation of hybrid simulation is not well documented, and often obscured behind commercial software packages. Here two implementation approaches for integrating discrete event simulation and systems dynamics are presented in an open, reproducible framework, built with the Ciw library in Python. These two implementation approaches, denoted here by and , correspond to two different process environments for DES+SD hybrid simulations. The models contribute to a collection of accessible and transparent hybrid simulations to be reproduced, scrutinised, built upon, and further developed. This paper also presents discussion on the lessons learned from these implementations, including the appropriateness of the models for different process environments, their ability to capture the full variability of a system, and subtleties in their synchronicity.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"240 - 256"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46651232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A simulation-optimisation approach for production control strategies in perishable food supply chains 易腐食品供应链生产控制策略的模拟优化方法
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-10-26 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1991850
A. G. Qasem, Faisal Aqlan, Abdulrahman Shamsan, Mohammed Alhendi
{"title":"A simulation-optimisation approach for production control strategies in perishable food supply chains","authors":"A. G. Qasem, Faisal Aqlan, Abdulrahman Shamsan, Mohammed Alhendi","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1991850","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1991850","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In order to minimise wastes and losses in perishable Food Supply Chains (FSCs), it is crucially important to control inventory and organise the flow of material and information throughout supply chains. In this study, Basestock-Constant Work-in-Process (B-CONWIP), a pull-based inventory control policy, is proposed to control inventory in perishable FSCs. The effectiveness of the B-CONWIP policy is investigated for a three-echelon perishable FSC using a simulation-optimisation approach. The B-CONWIP policy is compared with two existing basestock policies (BSPs): continuous review (s, S) policy and BSP-low-Estimated Waste (BSP-low-EW), a periodic inventory review policy that outperforms other policies presented in the literature for perishable inventory. The objective is to minimise the total cost (i.e., sum of holding, deterioration, ordering, and shortage costs) while satisfying a predetermined service level. The study shows that B-CONWIP yields the lowest total cost, BSP-low-EW performs the second best, while (s, S) policy is the worst. It is also noted that, in spite of higher ordering cost for B-CONWIP compared to (s, S) policy and BSP-low-EW, B-CONWIP achieves the lowest total cost at all demand rate and volume variations tested. In conclusion, B-CONWIP is more flexible and robust than (s, S) and BSP-low-EW policies because of its ability to handle demand variations without major changes in control parameter values and cost measures.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"211 - 227"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47676329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
DEVS-based modular modelling method of dry bulk terminals 基于devs的干散货码头模块化建模方法
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1992313
Benfei Zhu, Qiang Zhou, Yu Tian
{"title":"DEVS-based modular modelling method of dry bulk terminals","authors":"Benfei Zhu, Qiang Zhou, Yu Tian","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1992313","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1992313","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Considering the diversification of dry bulk terminal types and the complexity of terminal loading and unloading operations, a modular modelling method based on discrete event system specification (DEVS) modelling theory is proposed in this paper. First, we introduced the DEVS into the dry bulk terminal and explained the ideas and main steps of the DEVS-based modular modelling method. Second, a module library and model framework library for dry bulk terminals were developed, and the DEVS expression of the modules and model framework was given. Studies have shown that the production performance of a coal export terminal is generally positively correlated with ship loading and ship arrival density. Terminal operators can improve their ability to respond to future scenarios in two ways: upgrading berth levels and improving ship berthing strategies. The case verifies that the model framework and module library are effective, and the modelling method based on DEVS is feasible.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"257 - 278"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43603775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Efficient confidence intervals for the difference of two Bernoulli distributions’ success parameters 两个伯努利分布成功参数之差的有效置信区间
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-10-13 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1955629
Ignacio Erazo, D. Goldsman
{"title":"Efficient confidence intervals for the difference of two Bernoulli distributions’ success parameters","authors":"Ignacio Erazo, D. Goldsman","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1955629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1955629","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We study properties of confidence intervals (CIs) for the difference of two Bernoulli distributions’ success parameters. The CIs under investigation range from the classical fixed-sample-size CI to sequential versions, possibly incorporating batching. For each CI method, we examine the attained coverage, as well as the trade-offs between the number of observations and stages required to obtain a desired CI width. We consider cases in which the two populations are completely independent, and we provide analytical and simulation results to measure the performance of the different methods. For the multi-stage methods, we find that a simple observation allocation rule based on comparing the sample standard deviations of the two populations is more efficient than taking equal sample sizes from both. We also show that the use of a moderate level of batching saves stages at only modest costs in sample size and coverage.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"76 - 93"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44868546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Feedback density and causal complexity of simulation model structure 仿真模型结构的反馈密度和因果复杂性
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-10-10 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1982653
A. Naugle, Stephen J Verzi, K. Lakkaraju, L. Swiler, C. Warrender, Michael Bernard, Vicente Romero
{"title":"Feedback density and causal complexity of simulation model structure","authors":"A. Naugle, Stephen J Verzi, K. Lakkaraju, L. Swiler, C. Warrender, Michael Bernard, Vicente Romero","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1982653","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1982653","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Measures of simulation model complexity generally focus on outputs; we propose measuring the complexity of a model’s causal structure to gain insight into its fundamental character. This article introduces tools for measuring causal complexity. First, we introduce a method for developing a model’s causal structure diagram, which characterises the causal interactions present in the code. Causal structure diagrams facilitate comparison of simulation models, including those from different paradigms. Next, we develop metrics for evaluating a model’s causal complexity using its causal structure diagram. We discuss cyclomatic complexity as a measure of the intricacy of causal structure and introduce two new metrics that incorporate the concept of feedback, a fundamental component of causal structure. The first new metric introduced here is feedback density, a measure of the cycle-based interconnectedness of causal structure. The second metric combines cyclomatic complexity and feedback density into a comprehensive causal complexity measure. Finally, we demonstrate these complexity metrics on simulation models from multiple paradigms and discuss potential uses and interpretations. These tools enable direct comparison of models across paradigms and provide a mechanism for measuring and discussing complexity based on a model’s fundamental assumptions and design.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"229 - 239"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46778741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Improving the operations of an emergency department (ED) using a combined approach of simulation and analytical hierarchical process (AHP) 运用模拟与层次分析法(AHP)相结合的方法改进急诊科(ED)的操作
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1981784
Vasiliki Amarantou, D. Chatzoudes, Vassilios Angelidis, Alexandros Xanthopoulos, P. Chatzoglou
{"title":"Improving the operations of an emergency department (ED) using a combined approach of simulation and analytical hierarchical process (AHP)","authors":"Vasiliki Amarantou, D. Chatzoudes, Vassilios Angelidis, Alexandros Xanthopoulos, P. Chatzoglou","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1981784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1981784","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper presents the results concerning the evaluation of the processes of an Emergency Department (ED). Based on the analysis of both processes and data flow, a simulation model of patient throughput in the ED has been developed. Simulation results, obtained using the JaamSim software, pointed out the strengths and weaknesses of the departments’ operations. Then, several alternative scenarios (hypothetical solutions) were created and tested, while the results were thoroughly analysed. In order to prioritise the several scenarios, two hierarchical processes were used. Firstly, a multicriteria table was developed based on decision makers’ personal preference. Total length of stay was acknowledged as the factor with the higher importance. Consequently, the application of an analytical hierarchical process (AHP) managed to verify the primary ranking. A comparison of the proposed ideas was attempted, featuring the implementation of a fast track unit as the best practice.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"193 - 210"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45611308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
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