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Journal of Simulation最新文献

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A generalised SEIRD model with implicit social distancing mechanism: A Bayesian approach for the identification of the spread of COVID-19 with applications in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state 具有隐式社交距离机制的广义SEIRD模型：识别新冠肺炎传播的贝叶斯方法及其在巴西和里约热内卢州的应用
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1977731
D. Volpatto, A. C. M. Resende, Lucas dos Anjos, João V. O. Silva, C. M. Dias, R. C. Almeida, S. Malta
{"title":"A generalised SEIRD model with implicit social distancing mechanism: A Bayesian approach for the identification of the spread of COVID-19 with applications in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state","authors":"D. Volpatto, A. C. M. Resende, Lucas dos Anjos, João V. O. Silva, C. M. Dias, R. C. Almeida, S. Malta","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1977731","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1977731","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT We develop a generalized Susceptible--Exposed--Infected--Removed--Dead (SEIRD) model considering social distancing measures to describe the COVID-19 spread in Brazil. We assume uncertain scenarios with limited testing capacity, lack of reliable data, under-reporting of cases, and restricted testing policy. A Bayesian framework is proposed for the identification of model parameters and uncertainty quantification of the model outcomes. We identify through sensitivity analysis (SA) that the model parameter related to social distancing measures is one of the most influential. Different relaxation strategies of social distancing measures are then investigated to determine which are viable and less hazardous to the population. The scenario of abrupt social distancing relaxation implemented after the peak of positively diagnosed cases can prolong the epidemic. A more severe scenario occurs if a social distancing relaxation policy is implemented prior to the evidence of epidemiological control, indicating the importance of the appropriate choice of when to start the relaxation.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"178 - 192"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43816092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Social identity theory applied to the game of self-regulation of social exchanges based on multiagent systems 基于多智能体系统的社会交换自我调节博弈研究
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-09-22 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1977730
Jader Saldanha, D. Adamatti, G. Dimuro
{"title":"Social identity theory applied to the game of self-regulation of social exchanges based on multiagent systems","authors":"Jader Saldanha, D. Adamatti, G. Dimuro","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1977730","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1977730","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Autonomous intelligent agents participate in complex social situations. It is necessary that agents are aware of their society and still understand their context of action and interaction. Such social situation with other agents is influenced by society’s characteristics, including their norms, values, common interests and objectives, members, and social structures. Each complex society is broken down into social groups, each one with an identity. Social identity theory is seen as an analysis of intergroup relations in social categories based on the cognitive definition and the autoconcept of a social group and their belonging. Researchers have been studying this theory in computing, more specifically in multiagent systems. Social exchanges are the object of study in diverse contexts in which social relations are understood as social exchanges. One of the investigated themes is the self-regulation of social exchanges. The game of self-regulation of social exchanges explores its self-regulation but it does not analyse the agents’ identity. Therefore, this research investigates the integration of psychosocial analysis of social identity theory into the social adaptive complex society of the game of self-regulation of social exchanges. The principal result of this work is the GSRSEPSIT, a social simulation model.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"164 - 177"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44102202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing the consequences of second-generation bioenergy crops for grain/livestock farming on the Canadian prairies: An agent-based simulation 评估第二代生物能源作物对加拿大大草原谷物/牲畜养殖的影响:基于代理的模拟
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-09-04 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1970487
Leigh Anderson, R. Schoney, J. Nolan
{"title":"Assessing the consequences of second-generation bioenergy crops for grain/livestock farming on the Canadian prairies: An agent-based simulation","authors":"Leigh Anderson, R. Schoney, J. Nolan","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1970487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1970487","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT In North America, alternative energy policies have been mostly focused on first-generation biofuels. There is continued development of second-generation biofuels (SGB), crops founded upon low-value feedstocks thriving on marginal (low quality) land. SGB’s alter the farming decision environment since they do not compete directly with high-value annual crops. To examine possible future consequences of SGB’s on mixed farming, we develop anagent-based simulation model (ABM) of a major agricultural region in Western Canada. If energy prices for SGB’s rise high enough, there will likely be structural changes in the sector. Farmers with significant quantities of marginal land experience the greatest benefit adopting energy crops. Spillover effects of energy crop adoption will also be felt in the beef industry since cattle numbers will be gradually reduced. Simulation results also indicate that beef farmers are better off with SGB crops since energy crops stabilise farm income as average farm size decreases.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"149 - 163"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47178798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
An agent-based model to assess citizens’ acceptance of COVID-19 restrictions 评估公民对新冠肺炎限制措施接受程度的基于代理的模型
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-08-23 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1965501
R. Falcone, A. Sapienza
{"title":"An agent-based model to assess citizens’ acceptance of COVID-19 restrictions","authors":"R. Falcone, A. Sapienza","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1965501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1965501","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Italy was the first European state affected by COVID-19. Despite many uncertainties, citizens chose to trust the authorities and their trust was pivotal. This research aims to investigate the contribution of Italian citizens’ trust in Public Institutions and how it influenced the acceptance of the necessary counter measures. Applying linear regression to a dataset of 4260 Italian respondents, we modelled trust from its main cognitive components, with particular reference to competence and willingness. Therefore, exploiting agent-based modelling, we investigated how these components affected trust and how trust evolution influences the acceptance of these restrictive measures. Our analysis confirms the key role of competence and willingness as cognitive components of trust. Results also suggest that a generic attempt to raise the average trust, besides being challenging, may not be the best strategy to increase compliance. Furthermore, reasoning at category level is a fundamental to identify the best components on which to invest.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"105 - 119"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42149011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Mobile experimentation using modelling and simulation in the Fog/Cloud 在雾/云中使用建模和模拟的移动实验
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-08-20 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1964393
Khaldoon Al-Zoubi, Gabriel A. Wainer
{"title":"Mobile experimentation using modelling and simulation in the Fog/Cloud","authors":"Khaldoon Al-Zoubi, Gabriel A. Wainer","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1964393","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1964393","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Recently, we have seen an increase of the use of Cloud computing to provide Modelling & Simulation services. In general, mobility support is lacking since clients normally contact the same centralised clouds regardless of their locations. In this research, we propose a method and algorithms to build Fogs as private services in which different middleware running in varied Virtual Machines (on various distributed Fogs and Cloud backbone) to expose different services. Clients access services via nearby Fogs, which then discover the required resources to run experiments (on Fogs or cloud backbone). Our focus is on mobility, to permit clients to conduct experiments (and visualise simulation results) using mobile devices. Mobility support is further improved by introducing the novel concept of a mobile simulation experiment: if a device moves away from a given Fog zone, the experiment moves with the device. We present a prototype implementation, evaluation results, and different case studies.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"16 1","pages":"550 - 571"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45694296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
A hybrid data gathering and agent based cognitive architecture for realistic crowd simulations 一种用于真实人群模拟的混合数据收集和基于agent的认知架构
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-07-27 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1954487
Jacob Sinclair, Hemmaphan Suwanwiwat, Ickjai Lee
{"title":"A hybrid data gathering and agent based cognitive architecture for realistic crowd simulations","authors":"Jacob Sinclair, Hemmaphan Suwanwiwat, Ickjai Lee","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1954487","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1954487","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper proposes a realistic agent-based framework for crowd simulations that can encompass the input phase, the simulation process phase, and the output evaluation phase. In order to achieve this gathering, the three types of real-world data (physical, mental and visual) need to be considered. However, existing research has not used all the three data types to develop an agent-based framework since current data gathering methods are unable to collect all the three types. This paper introduces anew hybrid data gathering approach using a combination of virtual reality and questionnaires to gather all three data types. The data collected are incorporated into the simulation model to provide realism and flexibility. The performance of the framework is evaluated and benchmarked to prove the robustness and effectiveness of our framework. Various types of settings (self-set parameters and random parameters) are simulated to demonstrate that the framework can produce real-world like simulation.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"121 - 148"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17477778.2021.1954487","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49136996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
SpaceFOM - A robust standard for enabling a-priori interoperability of HLA-based space systems simulations SpaceFOM——一个强大的标准，用于实现基于hla的空间系统模拟的先验互操作性
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1945962
E. Crues, Dan Dexter, A. Falcone, A. Garro, B. Möller
{"title":"SpaceFOM - A robust standard for enabling a-priori interoperability of HLA-based space systems simulations","authors":"E. Crues, Dan Dexter, A. Falcone, A. Garro, B. Möller","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1945962","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1945962","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The development of modern space systems requires the collaboration among several national and international space organisations. Along with this complexity and diversity come progressively increasing challenges with managing the associated requirements, properties, emergent behaviours, and integration risks. Collaborative and distributed simulation is one technology being applied to address these challenges. A notable example of this is the well-established standard for distributed simulation, the IEEE 1516-2010 – High Level Architecture (HLA). To enable and ensure a-priori interoperability for complex space systems simulations and foster international collaboration, the Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization (SISO) formed a Product Development Group (PDG) to develop the Space Reference Federation Object Model (SpaceFOM). This article presents the SpaceFOM standard describing the principal design elements that compose it along with a set of design patterns introduced to deal with common issues in distributed simulation and to pursue extensibility, interoperability, and robustness.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"16 1","pages":"624 - 644"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17477778.2021.1945962","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46082272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
A system dynamics model application to operating room planning and management 系统动力学模型在手术室规划与管理中的应用
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-06-08 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1932622
S. Faeghi, K. Lennerts, S. Nickel
{"title":"A system dynamics model application to operating room planning and management","authors":"S. Faeghi, K. Lennerts, S. Nickel","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1932622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1932622","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Operating room (OR) management has remarkable impacts on the efficiency of not only OR departments themselves but also other functions of hospitals. Therefore, evaluation of long-term adequacy of specific decisions regarding the OR planning is of a notable importance. Since hospitals deal with a varying environment, every long-term analysis must investigate the hospital responsiveness to the relevant changes. For this purpose, the system dynamics (SD) approach can be very useful. Generally, SD models are not dependent on high-quality and can be applied to problems at strategic levels. Using a SD approach, this paper aims to consider OR departments as multi-product systems and study their dynamism. The proposed model is based on a mesoscopic approach, which represents the flow processes through piecewise constant rates. The proposed model is generic, modular and easy to extend and described by means of MATLAB/Simulink®. A real case study is considered to validate and demonstrate its usefulness.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"58 - 75"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17477778.2021.1932622","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48484497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
A persuasive multi-agent simulator to improve electrical energy consumption 一个有说服力的多智能体模拟器，以提高电能消耗
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-05-31 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1931499
F. Mota, C. Steffens, D. Adamatti, S. Botelho, V. Rosa
{"title":"A persuasive multi-agent simulator to improve electrical energy consumption","authors":"F. Mota, C. Steffens, D. Adamatti, S. Botelho, V. Rosa","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1931499","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1931499","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Gathering information on electric energy consumption is important for companies and institutions aiding in making plans. Multi-agent systems can aid such companies in understanding the different behaviours presented within the context of a society constituted by autonomous entities. We propose a multi-agent simulator capable of emulating different profiles of consumers and equipment. Our approach differs from others in three fundamental aspects: i). it models parameters that are difficult to predict, which are calibrated using values provided by available records; ii). it can be applied to different simulation environments involving various degrees of scalability and heterogeneity of profiles both of individual behaviour and household appliances; iii). it simulates the complexity of the system, providing estimates through the simulation of the interaction between users and electrical appliances. The results obtained by the model were similar to the numbers provided by the literature, which suggests the validity of the proposed approach.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"17 - 31"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17477778.2021.1931499","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41378975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
A hybrid simulation approach applied in sustainability performance assessment in make-to-order supply chains: The case of a commercial aircraft manufacturer 一种混合仿真方法在按订单制造供应链可持续性绩效评估中的应用:以某商用飞机制造商为例
IF 2.5 4区 工程技术
Journal of Simulation Pub Date : 2021-05-31 DOI: 10.1080/17477778.2021.1931500
Catia Barbosa, Carlos Malarranha, A. Azevedo, Ana Carvalho, A. Barbosa‐Póvoa
{"title":"A hybrid simulation approach applied in sustainability performance assessment in make-to-order supply chains: The case of a commercial aircraft manufacturer","authors":"Catia Barbosa, Carlos Malarranha, A. Azevedo, Ana Carvalho, A. Barbosa‐Póvoa","doi":"10.1080/17477778.2021.1931500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17477778.2021.1931500","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Make-to-order (MTO) supply chains (SC), common in aerospace industries, are very complex compared to mass production chains. Moreover, one of the significant long-term challenges is sustainability performance across its entire supply chain. However, this is not an easy task given the complexity involved, so decision support tools are fundamental instruments in understanding the entire supply chain from a sustainability performance perspective. Using simulation as a research method, this article proposes a hybrid and hierarchical performance assessment model, considering key sustainability indicators. The model is hybrid due to the use of different simulation methods– System Dynamics (SD), Discrete Event Simulation (DES), and Agent-based simulation (ABS). The model is applied to an aerospace manufacturer’s real case to assess the sustainability performance of alternative SC. Unlike existing contributions, this work addresses the make-to-order supply chain from a sustainability performance perspective and does not compromise the representation of the diverse manufacturing functions and resources.","PeriodicalId":51296,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Simulation","volume":"17 1","pages":"32 - 57"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/17477778.2021.1931500","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43522534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
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