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Uncertainty quantification of offshore wind farms using Monte Carlo and sparse grid 基于蒙特卡罗和稀疏网格的海上风电场不确定性量化
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-12-11 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.2000520
P. Richter, J. Wolters, Martin Frank
{"title":"Uncertainty quantification of offshore wind farms using Monte Carlo and sparse grid","authors":"P. Richter, J. Wolters, Martin Frank","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.2000520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.2000520","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The power produced by an offshore wind farm is subject to multiple uncertainties, such as volatile wind, turbine performance wear, and availability losses. Knowledge about the propagation of these uncertainties and their effect on the produced power is crucial in the design stage of a wind farm. Due to the multitude of uncertainties, an analysis requires high-dimensional numerical integration to determine these parameter sensitivities. Such an analysis has not been done in the current literature for the full set of parameters. In this work, a thorough analysis of all uncertainties is provided, modeled from several years of collected data from the existing wind farms Horns Rev 1, DanTysk, and Sandbank. The analysis reveals four major parameters, allowing the other parameters to be neglected in future measurement data acquisitions and sensitivity analysis processes. Furthermore, the accuracy of several Uncertainty Quantification techniques is analyzed and a recommendation for future analysis is given.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75720586","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Protecting consumers in digitized and multi-source energy systems 保护数字化和多源能源系统中的消费者
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.2012541
C. Decker
{"title":"Protecting consumers in digitized and multi-source energy systems","authors":"C. Decker","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.2012541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.2012541","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper investigates if the consumer risks of digitized and multi-source energy systems are capable of being addressed under existing energy consumer protection frameworks. Two challenges are identified. First, under existing frameworks the decision about which entities are subject to consumer protection obligations is often binary and may not easily accommodate new energy products, business models, or supply arrangements. Second, the highly prescriptive and detailed nature of current frameworks are ill-suited to the changes occurring in energy markets that require policymakers to develop rules to mitigate consumer risks arising from a rapidly expanding group of products, sources and technologies. To address these challenges, we propose that frameworks adapt to be based around baseline rights for all consumers irrespective of how they source, manage, or consume energy. We also argue for greater reliance on co-regulation to develop, monitor, and enforce a series of codes to protect consumers from the risks of new energy products and services.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"2016 1","pages":"1127 - 1142"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73486556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
New energy downstream. Emerging business models and innovative best practices: an economic, institutional, and behavioral focus 新能源下游。新兴商业模式和创新最佳实践:经济、制度和行为焦点
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.2018647
A. Rubino, A. Facchini, Michael J. Fell, M. Giulietti, A. Morone
{"title":"New energy downstream. Emerging business models and innovative best practices: an economic, institutional, and behavioral focus","authors":"A. Rubino, A. Facchini, Michael J. Fell, M. Giulietti, A. Morone","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.2018647","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.2018647","url":null,"abstract":"a potential","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"11 1","pages":"971 - 975"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75048359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
On accelerating the development of configurational innovation systems—the case of non-urban district heating in Germany 论加快结构创新体系的发展——以德国非城市区域供热为例
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-11-28 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1999345
J. Wesche, S. Negro, E. Dütschke, M. Hekkert
{"title":"On accelerating the development of configurational innovation systems—the case of non-urban district heating in Germany","authors":"J. Wesche, S. Negro, E. Dütschke, M. Hekkert","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1999345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1999345","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The decarbonizing the heat sector is a major challenge in the energy transition in Germany and elsewhere. District heating systems could play an important role in this context. However, the diffusion of the technology in Germany has been very slow. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the technological innovation system (TIS) to enhance understandings of the impediments to the diffusion of non-urban district heating systems. Due to its strong local context dependence, district heating can be understood as a configurational technology, and the TIS in which it is embedded as a configurational TIS. The paper contributes to the literature by developing policy suggestions that could lead to an acceleration of the diffusion of locally context-dependent technologies. The author recommends that policymaking in configurational TIS should aim at designing smart innovation system structures that can manage a high level of context specificity and facilitate vertical and horizontal knowledge exchange.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"16 1","pages":"1110 - 1126"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77056211","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Fiscal Multipliers and Oil Price Fluctuations in Oil-Exporting Countries: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries 石油出口国的财政乘数与石油价格波动:来自海湾合作委员会国家的证据
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1986173
S. B. Slimane, Moez Ben Tahar, Mohamed Ali Houfi
{"title":"Fiscal Multipliers and Oil Price Fluctuations in Oil-Exporting Countries: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries","authors":"S. B. Slimane, Moez Ben Tahar, Mohamed Ali Houfi","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1986173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1986173","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The paper explores asymmetries related to oil price changes (increase vs. decrease) and the state of the business cycle (expansion vs. recession).We used panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model, augmented by exogenous ‘dummy’ variables to estimate fiscal multipliers within a nonlinear framework.The results suggest that (i) linear multipliers are moderate and in line with those found in previous studies; (ii) the multipliers are larger for capital than for current expenditures; (iii) when controlling for oil price changes, the expenditure multipliers are higher during oil market downturns (oil price busts); (iv) spending multipliers are significantly larger when the output gap is negative. The importance of these findings lies on their policy suggestions. These findings indicate that fiscal policy should be designed based on oil price movements and economic fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"82 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85187448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research on the evaluation of China’s regional energy security and influencing factors 中国区域能源安全评价及影响因素研究
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1993383
M. Song, Weiliang Tao
{"title":"Research on the evaluation of China’s regional energy security and influencing factors","authors":"M. Song, Weiliang Tao","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1993383","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1993383","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Significant increases in energy demand and a higher pressure on energy supply pose a great threat to energy security. This study evaluated the level of regional energy security in China and explored the influencing factors of energy security based on the spatial lag model. The results show that China’s overall and regional energy security is generally not high. Technological progress, ecological environment, and energy production can improve energy security, while energy consumption intensity, and population size negatively affect regional energy security. Moreover, the results indicate that the marginal effect of energy consumption intensity on energy security decreases as the technological level increases. Therefore, encouraging the development of high-tech industries, controlling the size of the population, stabilizing international energy supply, and strengthening foreign cooperation are of great significance to the improvement of energy security.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90451471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Consumer-centric and capital efficient design of community microgrids for financially-Strapped communities 为财政拮据的社区设计以消费者为中心和资本效率高的社区微电网
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1983083
Emi Minghui Gui, I. MacGill, R. Betz
{"title":"Consumer-centric and capital efficient design of community microgrids for financially-Strapped communities","authors":"Emi Minghui Gui, I. MacGill, R. Betz","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1983083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1983083","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Subscription-based microgrids have been deployed to serve electricity needs of rural communities due to their simple user interfaces and basic energy management requirements. However, these projects often suffer from economic inefficiency to sustain long-term operations, lacking insufficient price signals and demand side, as well as uncertainties around consumer participation. This article proposes a consumer-centric planning and design framework for community microgrids, based on capacity subscription with self-rationing to reveal consumers’ real preferences in service reliability and their budget constraints, in order to achieve social welfare maximization and revenue adequacy. This capital efficient community microgrid greatly simplifies the microgrid investment planning, operation and scheduling, and reduces capital requirements and transaction costs, thus to improve electricity accessibility and affordability and to incentivize private sector investments. This is particularly advantageous in microgrid applications for financially strapped communities when incorporating high share of variable renewable energy generations. Requiring a lower level of investments than the current subscription-based microgrids, our analysis shows the benefits of the proposed design in improving the consumers’ surplus, and supply–demand matching, achieving cost recovery, and desired level of service reliability for consumers.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"41 1","pages":"929 - 950"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85190032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modeling the United States crack spread: Market efficiency, persistence and the Verleger hypothesis 美国裂缝蔓延模型:市场效率、持久性和维勒格假说
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172
José Carlos Vides, Mónica Carmona, Julia Feria, A. Golpe
{"title":"Modeling the United States crack spread: Market efficiency, persistence and the Verleger hypothesis","authors":"José Carlos Vides, Mónica Carmona, Julia Feria, A. Golpe","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The price formation of crude oil and its refined products plays an essential role in the global economic system and mainly in the United States, where any shock on this market has implications for the different concerned parties. In this sense, we employ the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to analyze the long-run relationship between crude oil and each refined product and the persistence of the error term resulting, i.e., the crack spread, simultaneously. Once the cointegrating relationships between crude oil price and each refined product price are tested, we also evidence that the order of integration of the crack spread displays a long memory process. Finally, by attending to the coefficient adjustments, supply-driven market integration is given. Additionally, the Verleger hypothesis is rejected for all refined products, corroborated by the component share. This paper has important policy implications for investors, energy policymakers and refiners.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"951 - 970"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78790290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The value of invisibility: factors affecting social acceptance of renewable energy 不可见的价值:影响可再生能源社会接受度的因素
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1983891
A. Keeley, Kento Komatsubara, Shunsuke Managi
{"title":"The value of invisibility: factors affecting social acceptance of renewable energy","authors":"A. Keeley, Kento Komatsubara, Shunsuke Managi","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1983891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1983891","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Notwithstanding the global turn to renewable energy, its development is constrained by a lack of social acceptance. Various studies have evaluated citizens’ acceptance of and willingness to pay (WTP) for renewable energy and associated factors. We broadened the analytical framework of previous studies by incorporating spatial data on renewable and nonrenewable power plants, natural and produced capital, and renewable energy potential to determine key factors affecting social acceptance measured through WTP for renewable energy in Japan. We found that besides respondents’ ages, sex, education levels, and household incomes, their proximity to existing power plants generating renewable and nonrenewable energy and natural capital endowments in their locations significantly affected their WTP for renewable energy. Our analysis further revealed that whereas visible solar PV plants located within 3 km of respondents’ residences negatively affected their WTP, less visible plants at high elevations did not impact negatively on social acceptance.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86079762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
A hybridized approach for design and optimization of combined economic emission dispatch 综合经济排放调度设计与优化的混合方法
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1971800
S. Acharya, Ganesan Sivarajan, D. V. Kumar, S. Srikrishna
{"title":"A hybridized approach for design and optimization of combined economic emission dispatch","authors":"S. Acharya, Ganesan Sivarajan, D. V. Kumar, S. Srikrishna","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1971800","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1971800","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper proposes a new algorithm, known as Refraction based Whale Optimization Algorithm (RWOA), for providing optimal solutions to the Combined Economic Emission Dispatch problem based on the production of an optimum solar energy system. It validates the robustness of the proposed algorithm in Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRES). To control the emission and economic cost, it is necessary to connect the wind turbine with the thermal power plant. Finally, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with the other conventional approaches concerning the economic cost, emission cost transmission loss. Accordingly, the results, shows that the proposed RWOA method is 92.81%, 99.2%, 92.8%, 80%, 37.8%, 47.34%, and 45.83% superior to GA, GWO, WOA, DA, GWSO, LGSO and WWO at 40th iteration.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":"15 1","pages":"903 - 928"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9,"publicationDate":"2021-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81951577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
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