Uncertainty quantification of offshore wind farms using Monte Carlo and sparse grid

IF 3.1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2021-12-11 DOI:10.1080/15567249.2021.2000520

P. Richter, J. Wolters, Martin Frank

引用次数: 10

Abstract

ABSTRACT The power produced by an offshore wind farm is subject to multiple uncertainties, such as volatile wind, turbine performance wear, and availability losses. Knowledge about the propagation of these uncertainties and their effect on the produced power is crucial in the design stage of a wind farm. Due to the multitude of uncertainties, an analysis requires high-dimensional numerical integration to determine these parameter sensitivities. Such an analysis has not been done in the current literature for the full set of parameters. In this work, a thorough analysis of all uncertainties is provided, modeled from several years of collected data from the existing wind farms Horns Rev 1, DanTysk, and Sandbank. The analysis reveals four major parameters, allowing the other parameters to be neglected in future measurement data acquisitions and sensitivity analysis processes. Furthermore, the accuracy of several Uncertainty Quantification techniques is analyzed and a recommendation for future analysis is given.

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基于蒙特卡罗和稀疏网格的海上风电场不确定性量化

海上风电场产生的电力受到多种不确定性的影响，如不稳定风、涡轮机性能磨损和可用性损失。了解这些不确定性的传播及其对发电的影响在风电场的设计阶段是至关重要的。由于大量的不确定因素，分析需要高维数值积分来确定这些参数的灵敏度。在目前的文献中，还没有对全部参数进行这样的分析。在这项工作中，对所有不确定性进行了彻底的分析，并根据从现有风电场Horns Rev 1、DanTysk和Sandbank收集的数年数据进行了建模。分析揭示了四个主要参数，允许在未来的测量数据采集和灵敏度分析过程中忽略其他参数。此外，还分析了几种不确定度量化技术的准确性，并对今后的分析提出了建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

12.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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