José Carlos Vides, Mónica Carmona, Julia Feria, A. Golpe
{"title":"美国裂缝蔓延模型:市场效率、持久性和维勒格假说","authors":"José Carlos Vides, Mónica Carmona, Julia Feria, A. Golpe","doi":"10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The price formation of crude oil and its refined products plays an essential role in the global economic system and mainly in the United States, where any shock on this market has implications for the different concerned parties. In this sense, we employ the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to analyze the long-run relationship between crude oil and each refined product and the persistence of the error term resulting, i.e., the crack spread, simultaneously. Once the cointegrating relationships between crude oil price and each refined product price are tested, we also evidence that the order of integration of the crack spread displays a long memory process. Finally, by attending to the coefficient adjustments, supply-driven market integration is given. Additionally, the Verleger hypothesis is rejected for all refined products, corroborated by the component share. This paper has important policy implications for investors, energy policymakers and refiners.","PeriodicalId":51247,"journal":{"name":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2021-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modeling the United States crack spread: Market efficiency, persistence and the Verleger hypothesis\",\"authors\":\"José Carlos Vides, Mónica Carmona, Julia Feria, A. Golpe\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"ABSTRACT The price formation of crude oil and its refined products plays an essential role in the global economic system and mainly in the United States, where any shock on this market has implications for the different concerned parties. In this sense, we employ the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to analyze the long-run relationship between crude oil and each refined product and the persistence of the error term resulting, i.e., the crack spread, simultaneously. Once the cointegrating relationships between crude oil price and each refined product price are tested, we also evidence that the order of integration of the crack spread displays a long memory process. Finally, by attending to the coefficient adjustments, supply-driven market integration is given. Additionally, the Verleger hypothesis is rejected for all refined products, corroborated by the component share. This paper has important policy implications for investors, energy policymakers and refiners.\",\"PeriodicalId\":51247,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-10-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modeling the United States crack spread: Market efficiency, persistence and the Verleger hypothesis
ABSTRACT The price formation of crude oil and its refined products plays an essential role in the global economic system and mainly in the United States, where any shock on this market has implications for the different concerned parties. In this sense, we employ the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to analyze the long-run relationship between crude oil and each refined product and the persistence of the error term resulting, i.e., the crack spread, simultaneously. Once the cointegrating relationships between crude oil price and each refined product price are tested, we also evidence that the order of integration of the crack spread displays a long memory process. Finally, by attending to the coefficient adjustments, supply-driven market integration is given. Additionally, the Verleger hypothesis is rejected for all refined products, corroborated by the component share. This paper has important policy implications for investors, energy policymakers and refiners.
期刊介绍:
12 issues per year
Abstracted and/or indexed in: Applied Science & Technology Index; API Abstracts/Literature; Automatic Subject Index Citation; BIOSIS Previews; Cabell’s Directory of Publishing Opportunities in Economics and Finance; Chemical Abstracts; CSA Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts; CSA Environmental Sciences & Pollution Management Database; CSA Pollution Abstracts; Current Contents/Engineering, Technology & Applied Sciences; Directory of Industry Data Sources; Economic Abstracts; Electrical and Electronics Abstracts; Energy Information Abstracts; Energy Research Abstracts; Engineering Index Monthly; Environmental Abstracts; Environmental Periodicals Bibliography (EPB); International Abstracts in Operations Research; Operations/Research/Management Science Abstracts; Petroleum Abstracts; Physikalische Berichte; and Science Citation Index.
Taylor & Francis make every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the "Content") contained in our publications. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors, and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor & Francis shall not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to, or arising out of the use of the Content. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions .