PLOS Climate最新文献

{"title":"Evaluating urban fire vulnerability and accessibility to fire stations and hospitals in Austin, Texas","authors":"Akhil Mandalapu, Kijin Seong, Junfeng Jiao","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000448","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of fires. Despite their widespread consequences, current research has largely overlooked urban fires and their associated vulnerability. This study seeks to identify patterns of fire vulnerability, map out areas with high fire vulnerability and limited access to fire stations and hospitals, and ultimately determine the factors contributing to increased fire incidents. Principal Component Analysis was used to develop a fire vulnerability index comprising variables capturing health status and socio-environmental factors. Enhanced 2-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) analysis was conducted to determine relative accessibility to resources such as hospitals and fire stations. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were utilized to determine factors associated with higher fire incident counts. The results of the fire vulnerability analysis highlight areas of high fire vulnerability in the eastern periphery and the north-central parts of Austin. Moreover, the eastern periphery experiences decreased accessibility to fire stations and hospitals. Finally, the results of the GWR analysis highlight a varied negative relationship between health vulnerability and fire incidents and a positive relationship with socio-environmental vulnerability. The GWR model (R2: 0.332) was able to predict a greater extent of the variance compared to OLS (R2: 0.056). Results of this study underscore that areas with socio-environmental vulnerabilities are likely to face a higher number of fire incidents and have reduced access to hospitals and fire stations. These findings can inform public health officials, city planners, and emergency services departments in developing targeted strategies to mitigate the harm caused by fire incidents.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":" 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141826086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of Mozambique Channel eddies on larval loss of two shallow-water commercial shrimp species","authors":"B. Malauene, Christophe Lett, Francis Marsac, P. Penven, S. Abdula, C. Moloney, Michael J. Roberts","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000414","url":null,"abstract":"The shallow-water shrimp fishery is an important social and economic sector in Mozambique. However, catches of shrimps have been declining over the last decades, presumably due to poor recruitment. Climate change has been proposed as a potential cause of increased mesoscale eddy activity over the Mozambique Channel, which may have played a role in poor shrimp recruitment. Indeed, stronger eddies could transport matter, including increased numbers of shrimp larvae, from the coast to unfavourable offshore areas. In this study we used a biophysical model to investigate the influence of eddies on the dispersal of larvae of two commercial shrimp species (Penaeus indicus and Metapenaeus monoceros) from their spawning areas on the Sofala Bank. We found some 5 large events of offshore or southward transport loss (>10% loss) from the Sofala Bank caused by eddies, occurring sporadically. The northern and central Sofala Bank areas were the most affected by larvae lost offshore. Simulations revealed that temperature-induced larval mortality, associated with cold-core cyclonic eddies, could also play a role in larval loss of up to 40%, which is greater than the larval transport loss associated with the eddy circulation. However, when they survived, larvae transported offshore could travel long distances (600–1600 km in 15 days), potentially promoting connectivity with other stocks in the region.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"44 50","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141270191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Voices of the absent: The agency of Nature and Future in climate regeneration","authors":"Diogo Guedes Vidal, Fátima Alves","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000420","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000420","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"5 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141271449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Extreme heat & public perception in Portland, Oregon: Evidence of a compounding vulnerability effect for climate hazards","authors":"B. Suldovsky, Molly Baer Kramer, Jonathan Fink","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000386","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme heat events are a global public health threat, and the frequency of these events are projected to increase significantly in the coming decades. Responding to extreme heat requires that municipalities communicate with public audiences. Generally speaking, risk communication and public engagement efforts are more effective when they are responsive to current risk perception trends. This social scientific study examines extreme heat risk perceptions, emergency response needs, and level of trust in first responders among residents of the Portland (OR) Metro Area. Using quantitative survey data, it demonstrates the compounding influence of three previously identified vulnerability indicators–poverty, disability, and race–on public perception surrounding extreme heat and environmental emergencies. Results show these vulnerability indicators have a significant compounding effect on public perception, such that an increased number of vulnerability indicators is associated with greater anticipated harm from extreme heat, higher anticipated need in the event of an environmental emergency, and lower trust in first responders. Firefighters and medical providers were the most trusted first responders across all vulnerability groups. Guidelines for public engagement and recommendations for future social scientific research are discussed.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"29 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141104177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trust in climate science and climate scientists: A narrative review","authors":"Viktoria Cologna, John Kotcher, Niels G. Mede, John Besley, Edward W. Maibach, Naomi Oreskes","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000400","url":null,"abstract":"Trust in climate science provides the foundation for evidence-based policymaking on climate change mitigation and adaptation and public perceptions of the urgency of climate change. Here we consider the possibility that lack of public trust in climate science and climate scientists may undermine the effectiveness of climate science communication. To this end, we narratively review three topics of relevance to climate science and climate scientists: 1) The current state of trust; 2) Reasons for distrust; 3) How political engagement affects trust. We then draw on insights from communication and behavioral science to recommend how climate change communicators can become more trustworthy.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"21 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141107798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A paradigm shift? African countries call for the non-use of solar geoengineering at UN Environment Assembly","authors":"Frank Biermann, Aarti Gupta","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000413","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000413","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"85 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141004044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of reduced snowpack due to climate warming on abiotic and biotic soil properties in alpine and boreal forest systems","authors":"Anastasiia Kosolapova, Ianina Altshuler","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000417","url":null,"abstract":"Reduction in snow cover, depth, onset, and duration of seasonal snow in mid-latitude regions due to climate warming has multiple global and local scale ecosystem impacts. These effects include modulations of the hydrological cycles and increases in land surface solar radiation absorption due to decreased albedo. Changes in snow cover characteristics also affect underlying soils. Snow has an insulating effect on soils by decoupling air and soil temperatures, thus seasonal snow cover reduction leads to overall lower soil temperatures and an increase in freeze-thaw cycles. This is especially prominent during the fall and spring thaw seasons when the snow cover is not as extensive. This in turn has downstream impacts on soil physical, chemical, and biological properties. Among these impacts are soil moisture reduction, temperature, frost regimes, soil pH shifts, and alteration in nutrient flux dynamics during winter, snowmelt period and the following summer growing season. These changes in soil physicochemical properties due to snowpack reduction can then impact the biological soil properties via increased plant root mortality, reduced abundance and diversity of soil arthropods, and shifts in composition, abundance and activity of soil microbial communities. All these soil biotic factors can in turn alter the dynamics of soil nutrient fluxes and future greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we integrate data on the effects of snow cover reduction on abiotic and biotic soil properties, with focus on temperate alpine and forest ecosystems and with an outlook on future impacts.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"8 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141003543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A rapid approach to assessing the vulnerability of Mozambican fisheries’ species to climate change","authors":"Sean T. Fennessy, Arthur J. R. Quick, Rui J. Mutombene, S. Abdula, Eunice R. Leong, Nilza Dias, Osvaldo Filipe, Osvaldo Chacate, B. Malauene, Stela M. C. Fernando, Daniel O. Mualeque, Patrick Vianello, Michael J. Roberts","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000372","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000372","url":null,"abstract":"Mozambique is amongst the most vulnerable of Western Indian Ocean (WIO] countries to the impacts of climate change on its marine fisheries. We used rapid assessment methods to evaluate sensitivity, exposure and vulnerability of fisheries species to climate change, appropriate for data-deficient, developing countries in the region. Species were selected based on their importance in industrial and artisanal fisheries’ landings, further prioritized by local experts. Species’ attributes likely to be sensitive to climate change were identified and scored, utilizing life history or biological characteristics. Sea Surface Temperature (SST] was the most prominent climate exposure factor and for which we could confidently predict likely future change. Most species had low or medium overall sensitivity to climate change, with only eight considered highly sensitive. Climate exposure (SST] scores were high off northern Mozambique, while the central and southern regions were generally of medium exposure. Ten species received a High vulnerability score, 14 were Medium, and 16 had a Low vulnerability score. The highly vulnerable species were all fishes, apart from one crustacean; 4 of the 9 were strongly estuarine-associated; the most vulnerable species was the parrotfish Scarus ghobban. This is the first attempt to use a rapid, semi-quantitative, specialist- and trait-based vulnerability assessment of the anticipated effect of climate change on marine fisheries species in the WIO. Challenges experienced were data paucity, limited resources, the large study area, and the complex oceanography of the region. However, a simple methodology was developed, derived from efforts elsewhere, and which can be used to undertake similar assessments for other WIO countries. Raised awareness of climate change among small-scale fishing communities is a necessity, combined with adaptation by promoting fisheries co-management. Also required is support from government to ensure that people can be flexible to change.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"2 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141003964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the human dimensions of harmful algal blooms through a well-being framework to increase resilience in a changing world","authors":"Stephanie K. Moore, Maggie Broadwater, Curtis Cha, Q. Dortch, Chris J. Harvey, Karma C. Norman, Justin Pearce, Carrie Pomeroy, J. Samhouri","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000411","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is expected to alter harmful algal bloom (HAB) dynamics in marine and freshwater systems around the world, with some regions already experiencing significant increases in HAB events. There has been considerable investment of effort to identify, characterize, track, and predict the direction and magnitude of HAB response to climate variability and change. In comparison, far less effort has been devoted to understanding how human communities respond to HABs in a changing world. Harmful algal blooms alter social-ecological interactions and can have negative consequences for human well-being. This is especially true for fishing communities because their resource-based economies operate at the interface of the natural environment and society. Identifying the components of human well-being that are most affected by HABs can advance ecosystem assessment and inform choices about climate-ready management strategies in and across complex systems. This study uses a framework for considering human well-being in management contexts to explore the effects of HABs of Pseudo-nitzschia spp. on US West Coast fishing communities. We find that HABs, and the management strategies to address them, affect almost every domain of human well-being; however, less than half of these effects meet the criteria to be considered by federal disaster response and recovery programs that provide relief to impacted communities. Moreover, much of the data used to measure the effects of HABs that are eligible for consideration by these programs are not consistently collected, which could lead to inequitable access to disaster relief. Our analysis provides a starting point for communities to develop a suite of high-quality indicators of human well-being to evaluate HAB impacts, assess the effectiveness of management actions and the equity of management outcomes, and track adaptation to system dynamics and external pressures.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"60 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141011727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Price and party: The importance of partisanship and cost in American climate public opinion","authors":"Eric G. Scheuch","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000306","url":null,"abstract":"Existing research on American climate opinion demonstrates that a wide variety of variables impact whether voters support a given policy. However, little research has empirically tested which variables matter the most in creating durable majority support for climate policies, and how varying outcomes of those variables can impact such support. I use a conjoint experiment to test the extent to which American voters value the six most important variables around climate mitigation policy, as illustrated in the current literature, and which potential options among those values attract the greatest support. I improve in external validity over previous conjoints by introducing partisanship and policy level, as well as more realistic ranges for policy cost. I find that voters generally-and across racial, gender, and partisan lines- value some variables ten times higher than others, and prefer Democratic or Bipartisan policies that are low cost and provide a variety of benefits.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"58 51","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141009821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}