PLOS Climate最新文献

{"title":"Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model","authors":"Joseph K. Brown, Leeya Pressburger, Abigail Snyder, K. Dorheim, Steven J. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Ben Bond-Lamberty","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000295","url":null,"abstract":"A primary advantage to using reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) has been their ability to quickly conduct probabilistic climate projections, a key component of uncertainty quantification in many impact studies and multisector systems. Providing frameworks for such analyses has been a target of several RCMs used in studies of the future co-evolution of the human and Earth systems. In this paper, we present Matilda, an open-science R software package that facilitates probabilistic climate projection analysis, implemented here using the Hector simple climate model in a seamless and easily applied framework. The primary goal of Matilda is to provide the user with a turn-key method to build parameter sets from literature-based prior distributions, run Hector iteratively to produce perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), weight ensembles for realism against observed historical climate data, and compute probabilistic projections for different climate variables. This workflow gives the user the ability to explore viable parameter space and propagate uncertainty to model ensembles with just a few lines of code. The package provides significant freedom to select different scoring criteria and algorithms to weight ensemble members, as well as the flexibility to implement custom criteria. Additionally, the architecture of the package simplifies the process of building and analyzing PPEs without requiring significant programming expertise, to accommodate diverse use cases. We present a case study that provides illustrative results of a probabilistic analysis of mean global surface temperature as an example of the software application.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"12 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141023003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Powerless in the storm: Severe weather-driven power outages in New York State, 2017–2020","authors":"Nina M. Flores, Alexander J. Northrop, Vivian Do, Milo Gordon, Yazhou Jiang, Kara E. Rudolph, Diana Hernández, Joan A. Casey","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000364","url":null,"abstract":"The vulnerability of the power grid to severe weather events is a critical issue as climate change is expected to increase extreme events, which can damage components of the power grid and/or lessen electrical power supply, resulting in power outages. However, largely due to an absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack a robust understanding of how severe weather-driven outages, their community impacts, and their durations distribute across space and socioeconomic vulnerability. Here, we pair hourly power outage data in electrical power operating localities (n = 1865) throughout NYS with urbanicity, CDC Social Vulnerability Index, and hourly weather (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, lightning strike, snowfall) data. We used these data to characterize the impact of extreme weather events on power outages from 2017–2020, while considering neighborhood vulnerability factors. Specifically, we assess (a) the lagged effect of severe weather on power outages, (b) common combinations of severe weather types contributing to outages, (c) the spatial distribution of the severe weather-driven outages, and (d) disparities in severe weather-driven outages by degree of community social vulnerability. We found that across NYS, 39.9% of all outages co-occurred with severe weather. However, certain regions, including eastern Queens, upper Manhattan and the Bronx of NYC, the Hudson Valley, and Adirondack regions were more burdened with severe weather-driven outages. Using targeted maximum likelihood estimation, we found that the frequency of heat-, precipitation-, and wind-driven outages disproportionately impacted vulnerable communities in NYC. When comparing durations of outages, we found that in rural regions, precipitation- and snow-driven outages lasted the longest in vulnerable communities. Under a shifting climate, anticipated increases in power outages will differentially burden communities due to regional heterogeneity in severe weather event severity, grid preparedness, and population socioeconomic profiles/vulnerabilities. As such, policymakers must consider these characteristics to inform equitable grid management and improvements.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"9 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141034362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spatiotemporal trends and variability of rainfall across agro-ecologies in East Guji Zone, Southeast Ethiopia","authors":"Menbere Sahilu, Solomon Tekalign, Yimer Mohammed, Tegegne Sishaw, Haji Kedir, Solomon Asfaw","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000361","url":null,"abstract":"Distribution and trends of rainfall reveal spatial and temporal variability that have a paramount effect on the life and livelihood of small-holder farmers. This study aimed to analyze spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall distribution across the three Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of East Guji. Time series gridded daily rainfall data (1990–2020) were collected from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institution. Different descriptive statistics, trend tests: Man Kendal and Sen’s slope estimator, Inverse Distance Weighted Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was used in the study. The finding demonstrated that altitude and rainfall decrease as one advances from the western (highland) to the eastern (lowland) direction in the study area where the highest rainfall was recorded in Solemo (highland) and the least in Negele (lowland).The study showed that as altitude increases annual rainfall also increases and rainfall variability decreases. Similarly the mean length of the growing season declines as one advance from the highlands to the lowlands. The PCI of the lowlands, midlands, and highlands AEZs was 19%, 17%, and 12% respectively. The PCI showed that those highlands had moderately concentrated rainfall but both lowlands, and midlands, had an irregular distribution of rainfall. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) indicated that highland areas had moderate variability in rainfall in all seasons except winter. In contrast, the low and midlands had shown high variability of rainfall (>30%) in all seasons. From a seasonal perspective, both CV and PCI revealed that the winter season showed more variability than others. Moreover, a significant increasing trend of annual rainfall was observed in the highlands AEZs (Bore 15.3mm/year and Solemo14.6mm/year), lowland AEZs (Chembe 10.9mm/year, Dawa 8mm/year and Bitata 7.8mm/year) as well as midland AEZs (Kercha 14.5mm/year) at a significant level of 5%. Therefore, strategies should be designed to use additional water resources for irrigation; and provide short-cycle grown and drought-resistant crops in the rest of the midlands and lowlands AEZs.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"8 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140222182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The role of institutional design in mobilizing climate finance: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh, Brazil, Ethiopia, and Indonesia","authors":"R. Bhandary","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000246","url":null,"abstract":"International climate finance is a crucial component of the response to climate change. This paper examines how national-level funding vehicles mobilize finance from international sources. Based on interviews with policymakers and various actors involved in the negotiation and design of four major early national climate funds, the Amazon Fund, the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund, Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Facility, and the Indonesia Climate Change Trust Fund, this paper identifies design features of national climate funds and highlights the trade-offs that developing countries face in their pursuit of climate finance. These design features have significant bearing on the overall effectiveness of the funds themselves. The findings from this study suggest that developing countries seek to maximize control over the funds even though it means that the design features do not minimize costs, as efficiency-oriented perspectives would suggest. The experience of these early national climate funds could be instructive to those governments and stakeholders considering establishing their own national climate funds or improving features. Three policy lessons are noteworthy: the importance of demonstrating commitment to climate policy through transparent data and results, instilling robust fiduciary standards and safeguards, and the virtuous cycle mobilizing climate finance and acquiring a track record on climate programming.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"8 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140230846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Preparing for heat risk is complex: Aligning adaptation and mitigation is essential","authors":"Candice Howarth","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000371","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"324 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140233191","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bridging gaps in permafrost-shrub understanding","authors":"Evan J. Wilcox, K. Bennett, J. Boike","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000360","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000360","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"84 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140254748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Southern Ocean food-webs and climate change: A short review and future directions","authors":"J. Queirós, Renato Borras-Chavez, Noémie Friscourt, Jasmin Groß, Candice B. Lewis, Georgia Mergard, Katie O’Brien","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000358","url":null,"abstract":"Food-webs are a critical feature of ecosystems and help us understand how communities will respond to climate change. The Southern Ocean is facing rapid and accelerating changes due to climate change. Though having evolved in an isolated and somewhat extreme environment, Southern Ocean biodiversity and food-webs are among the most vulnerable. Here, we review 1) current knowledge on Southern Ocean food-webs; 2) methods to study food-webs; 3) assessment of current and future impacts of climate change on Southern Ocean food-webs; 4) knowledge gaps; and 5) the role of Early Career Researchers (ECRs) in future studies. Most knowledge on Southern Ocean food-webs come from the pelagic environment, both at macro- and microbial levels. Modelling and diet studies of individual species are major contributors to the food-web knowledge. These studies revealed a short food-web, predominantly sustained by Antarctic Krill (Euphausia superba). Additionally, alternative pathways exist, involving other krill species, fish, and squid, which play equally important roles in connecting primary producers with top predators. Advantages and disadvantages of several techniques used to study Southern Ocean food-webs were identified, from the classical analyses of stomach contents, scats, or boluses to the most recent approaches such as metabarcoding and trophic-biomarkers. Observations show that climate change can impact the food-web in different ways. As an example, changes to smaller phytoplankton species can lengthen the food-web, increasing assimilation losses and/or changing nutrient cycles. Future studies need to focus on the benthic-dominated food-webs and the benthopelagic coupling. Furthermore, research during the winter season and below the ice-shelves is needed as these areas may play a crucial role in the functioning of this ecosystem. ECRs can play a significant role in advancing the study of Southern Ocean food-webs due to their willingness for interdisciplinary collaboration and proficiency in employing various methodologies, contributing to the construction of high-resolution food-webs.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"3 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140252735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis","authors":"D. Kirk, Samantha Straus, M. Childs, Mallory J. Harris, Lisa I. Couper, T. J. Davies, Coreen Forbes, Alyssa-Lois M Gehman, Maya L. Groner, Christopher Harley, Kevin D. Lafferty, Van Savage, Eloise Skinner, Mary O’Connor, E. Mordecai","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000152","url":null,"abstract":"Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both magnitude and direction and may interact with other environmental variables, making it difficult to anticipate changes in response to climate change. Here, we investigate global variation in temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations between temperature and dengue and matching them with remotely sensed climatic and socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation between temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of transmission and its environmental and social mediators.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140259909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Heat waves, climate crisis and adaptation challenges in the global south metropolises","authors":"Christovam Barcellos","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000367","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"4 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140258500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of climate change on human health in humanitarian settings: Evidence gaps and future research needs","authors":"L. McIver, Emma Beavon, Alexandra Malm, Amr Awad, Angela Uyen, Carol Devine, Caroline Voûte, Léo Tremblay, Louisa Baxter, J. E. Dewez, Maria Guevara, Monica Rull","doi":"10.1371/journal.pclm.0000243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000243","url":null,"abstract":"This mixed-methods study focuses on the evidence of the health impacts of climate change on populations affected by humanitarian crises, presented from the perspective of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)–the world’s largest emergency humanitarian medical organisation. The Sixth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was used as the basis of a narrative review, with evidence gaps highlighted and additional literature identified relevant to climate-sensitive diseases and health problems under-reported in–or absent from–the latest IPCC report. An internal survey of MSF headquarters staff was also undertaken to evaluate the perceived frequency and severity of such problems in settings where MSF works. The findings of the survey demonstrate some discrepancies between the health problems that appear most prominently in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and those that are most relevant to humanitarian settings. These findings should be used to guide the direction of future research, evidence-based adaptations and mitigation efforts to avoid the worst impacts of climate change on the health of the world’s most vulnerable populations.","PeriodicalId":510827,"journal":{"name":"PLOS Climate","volume":"138 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140078358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}