Space Weather最新文献_第2页

Influences of Space Weather Forecasting Uncertainty on Satellite Conjunction Assessment 空间天气预报不确定性对卫星会合评估的影响

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023sw003818

William E. Parker, M. Freeman, G. Chisham, Andrew Kavanagh, Peng Mun Siew, Victor Rodríguez-Fernández, Richard Linares

{"title":"Influences of Space Weather Forecasting Uncertainty on Satellite Conjunction Assessment","authors":"William E. Parker, M. Freeman, G. Chisham, Andrew Kavanagh, Peng Mun Siew, Victor Rodríguez-Fernández, Richard Linares","doi":"10.1029/2023sw003818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023sw003818","url":null,"abstract":"A significant increase in the number of anthropogenic objects in Earth orbit has necessitated the development of satellite conjunction assessment and collision avoidance capabilities for new spacecraft. Neutral mass density variability in the thermosphere, driven by enhanced geomagnetic activity and solar EUV absorption, is a major source of satellite propagation error. This work investigates the impacts of space weather driver forecasting uncertainty on satellite drag and collision avoidance maneuver decision‐making. Since most operational space weather driver forecasts do not offer an uncertainty assessment, the satellite operator community is left to make dangerous assumptions about the trustworthiness of the forecast models they use to perform satellite state propagation. Climatological persistence‐based forecast models are developed for F10.7 and Kp. These models accurately capture the heteroscedastic and, at times, highly non‐Gaussian uncertainty distribution on forecasts of the drivers of interest. A set of realistic satellite conjunction scenarios is simulated to demonstrate the contributions of space weather driver forecast uncertainty on the probability of collision and maneuver decisions. Improved driver forecasts, especially forecasts of F10.7, are demonstrated to be very useful for enabling durable maneuver decisions with additional lead time (up to 24 hr for the period examined), though the improvement depends on the specific conjunction scenario of interest.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"69 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141843453","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Updating Measures of CME Arrival Time Errors 更新测量集合放射粒子到达时间误差的方法

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024sw003951

C. Kay, E. Palmerio, P. Riley, M. L. Mays, T. Nieves-Chinchilla, M. Romano, Y. Collado-Vega, C. Wiegand, A. Chulaki

{"title":"Updating Measures of CME Arrival Time Errors","authors":"C. Kay, E. Palmerio, P. Riley, M. L. Mays, T. Nieves-Chinchilla, M. Romano, Y. Collado-Vega, C. Wiegand, A. Chulaki","doi":"10.1029/2024sw003951","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024sw003951","url":null,"abstract":"Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) drive space weather effects at Earth and the heliosphere. Predicting their arrival is a major part of space weather forecasting. In 2013, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center started collecting predictions from the community, developing an Arrival Time Scoreboard (ATSB). Riley et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018sw001962) analyzed the first 5 years of the ATSB, finding a bias of a few hours and uncertainty of order 15 hr. These metrics have been routinely quoted since 2018, but have not been updated despite continued predictions. We revise analysis of the ATSB using a sample 3.5 times the size of that in the original study. We find generally the same overall metrics, a bias of −2.5 hr, mean absolute error of 13.2 hr, and standard deviation of 17.4 hr, with only a slight improvement comparing between the previously‐used and new sets. The most well‐established, frequently‐submitted model results tend to outperform those from seldomly‐contributed models. These “best” models show a slight improvement over the 11 year span, with more scatter between the models during early times and a convergence toward the same error metrics in recent years. We find little evidence of any correlations between the arrival time errors and any other properties. The one noticeable exception is a tendency for late predictions for short transit times and vice versa. We propose that any model‐driven systematic errors may be washed out by the uncertainties in CME reconstructions in characterization of the background solar wind, and suggest that improving these may be the key to better predictions.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"15 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141704281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Using a Differential Magnetometer Technique to Measure Geomagnetically Induced Currents: An Augmented Approach 使用差分磁力计技术测量地磁诱导电流：一种增强方法

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024sw003894

H. Parry, I. Mann, A. Kale, D. Milling, C. Clark, R. Cui, D. Cordell, M. Unsworth

{"title":"Using a Differential Magnetometer Technique to Measure Geomagnetically Induced Currents: An Augmented Approach","authors":"H. Parry, I. Mann, A. Kale, D. Milling, C. Clark, R. Cui, D. Cordell, M. Unsworth","doi":"10.1029/2024sw003894","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024sw003894","url":null,"abstract":"Geoelectric fields produced by time‐varying magnetic fields during geomagnetic storms can result in potentially damaging geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in long conductors at the Earth's surface. GICs can pose a significant risk to the integrity of grounded electrical infrastructure, particularly high‐voltage transformers. In this study, an inferred GIC is calculated using an augmented differential magnetometer measurement (DMM) technique on a 500 kV transmission line in central Alberta and is validated using a proximal transformer neutral‐to‐ground (TNG) current measurement by AltaLink L.P. using a Hall probe at a transformer substation. This research outlines a custom‐built and innovative DMM design by which both DMM sensors deployed around a power line measure the background geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) field and the magnetic field generated locally by the GIC. We show how this modified approach provides two independent estimates for GIC derived using only ΔBy or ΔBz, the magnetic field components perpendicular to the line carrying GIC. Results for a geomagnetic storm on 12 Oct 2021 show contemporaneous peaks in the TNG current and the DMM‐inferred GIC. The two data sets have similar waveforms and are within the same order of magnitude. The background GMD is reconstructed using DMM and shows excellent correlation to the measured GMD at the permanent Canadian Array for Real‐time Investigations of Magnetic Activity magnetic station at Ministik Lake, approximately 48.5 km away. Based on the results presented here, we verify the added utility value of DMM for temporary deployments for assessing GIC risk in electrical power grids.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"2011 30","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141851695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Vigil Magnetometer for Operational Space Weather Services From the Sun‐Earth L5 Point 从太阳-地球 L5 点提供实用空间气象服务的 Vigil 磁强计

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024sw003867

J. Eastwood, P. Brown, W. Magnes, C. Carr, M. Agú, R. Baughen, G. Berghofer, J. Hodgkins, I. Jernej, C. Möstl, T. Oddy, A. Strickland, A. Vitkova

{"title":"The Vigil Magnetometer for Operational Space Weather Services From the Sun‐Earth L5 Point","authors":"J. Eastwood, P. Brown, W. Magnes, C. Carr, M. Agú, R. Baughen, G. Berghofer, J. Hodgkins, I. Jernej, C. Möstl, T. Oddy, A. Strickland, A. Vitkova","doi":"10.1029/2024sw003867","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024sw003867","url":null,"abstract":"Severe space weather has the potential to cause significant socio‐economic impact and it is widely accepted that mitigating this risk requires more comprehensive observations of the Sun and heliosphere, enabling more accurate forecasting of significant events with longer lead‐times. In this context, it is now recognized that observations from the L5 Sun‐Earth Lagrange point (both remote and in situ) would offer considerable improvements in our ability to monitor and forecast space weather. Remote sensing from L5 allows for the observation of solar features earlier than at L1, providing early monitoring of active region development, as well as tracking of interplanetary coronal mass ejections through the inner heliosphere. In situ measurements at L5 characterize the solar wind's geoeffectiveness (particularly stream interaction regions), and can also be ingested into heliospheric models, improving their performance. The Vigil space weather mission is part of the ESA Space Safety Program and will provide a real‐time data stream for space weather services from L5 following its anticipated launch in the early 2030s. The interplanetary magnetic field is a key observational parameter, and here we describe the development of the Vigil magnetometer instrument for operational space weather monitoring at the L5 point. We summarize the baseline instrument capabilities, demonstrating how heritage from science missions has been leveraged to develop a low‐risk, high‐heritage instrument concept.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"2019 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141400198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measurements of Cosmic Rays by a Mini‐Neutron Monitor at Neumayer III From 2014 to 2017 2014年至2017年在诺伊迈尔三期利用微型中子监测器对宇宙射线进行的测量

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023sw003596

M. Walter, C. Gnebner, B. Heber, K. Herbst, H. Krüger, H. Krüger, P. Kuehl, H. P. Prokoph, R. D. Strauss

引用次数: 0

Validation of Simulated Statistical Characteristics of Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere Coupling in Global Geospace Simulations Over an Entire Carrington Rotation 验证全球地球空间模拟中整个卡林顿自转过程中磁层-电离层耦合的模拟统计特征

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023sw003749

Qianfeng Yin, K. Pham, Junjie Chen, Binzheng Zhang

{"title":"Validation of Simulated Statistical Characteristics of Magnetosphere‐Ionosphere Coupling in Global Geospace Simulations Over an Entire Carrington Rotation","authors":"Qianfeng Yin, K. Pham, Junjie Chen, Binzheng Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2023sw003749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023sw003749","url":null,"abstract":"We study the statistical features of magnetosphere‐ionosphere (M‐I) coupling using a two‐way M‐I model, the GT configuration of the Multiscale Atmosphere Geospace Environment (MAGE) model. The M‐I coupling characteristics, such as field‐aligned current, polar cap potential, ionospheric Joule heating, and downward Alfvénic Poynting flux, are binned according to the interplanetary magnetic field clock angles over an entire Carrington Rotation event between 20 March and 16 April 2008. The MAGE model simulates similar distributions of field‐aligned currents compared to empirical Weimer/AMPS models and Iridium observations and reproduces the Region 0 current system. The simulated convection potential agrees well with the Weimer empirical model and displays consistent two‐cell patterns with SuperDARN observations, which benefit from more extensive data sets. The Joule heating structure in MAGE is generally consistent with both empirical Cosgrove and Weimer models. Moreover, our model reproduces Joule heating enhancements in the cusp region, as presented in the Cosgrove model and observations. The distribution of the simulated Alfvénic Poynting flux is consistent with that observed by the FAST satellite in the dispersive Alfvén wave regime. These M‐I coupling characteristics are also binned by the Kp indices, indicating that the Kp dependence of these patterns in the M‐I model is more effective than the empirical models within the Carrington Rotation. Furthermore, the MAGE simulation exhibits an improved M‐I current‐voltage relation that closely resembles the Weimer model, suggesting that the updated global model is significantly improved in terms of M‐I coupling.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"3 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141392603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Influences of Solar Wind Parameters on Energetic Electron Fluxes at Geosynchronous Orbit Revealed by the Deep SHAP Method 深度 SHAP 方法揭示的太阳风参数对地球同步轨道高能电子通量的影响

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024sw003880

Jianhang Wang, Z. Xiang, Binbin Ni, Deyu Guo, Yangxizi Liu, Junhu Dong, Jingle Hu, Haozhi Guo

{"title":"Influences of Solar Wind Parameters on Energetic Electron Fluxes at Geosynchronous Orbit Revealed by the Deep SHAP Method","authors":"Jianhang Wang, Z. Xiang, Binbin Ni, Deyu Guo, Yangxizi Liu, Junhu Dong, Jingle Hu, Haozhi Guo","doi":"10.1029/2024sw003880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024sw003880","url":null,"abstract":"Solar wind is an intermediary in energy transfer from the Sun into the Earth's magnetosphere, and is considered as a decisive driver of energetic electron dynamics at the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Based on machine learning technology, several models driven by solar wind parameters have been established to predict GEO electron fluxes. However, the relative contributions of different solar wind parameters on GEO electron fluxes are still unclear. Recently, a feature attribution method, Deep SHapley Additive exPlanations (Deep SHAP) is proposed to open black boxes of machine learning models. In this study, we use the Deep SHAP method to quantify contributions of different solar wind parameters with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Backpropagating the prediction results of this ANN model from 2011 to 2020, SHAP values for four solar wind parameters (interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) BZ, solar wind speed, solar wind dynamic pressure, and proton density) are calculated and comprehensively analyzed. The results suggest that solar wind speed with a lag of 1 day is the most important driver. We further investigate relative roles of different parameters in three specific electron fluxes variation events (corresponding to electron fluxes reaching a local maximum, a local minimum, and unchanged, respectively). The results suggest that high solar wind speed and southward IMF BZ (high dynamic pressures) facilitate increases (decreases) of electron fluxes. These findings help reveal the underlying physical mechanisms of GEO electron dynamics and help develop more accurate prediction models for GEO electron fluxes.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"25 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141396745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The Error of Global Ionospheric Map‐TEC During Equatorial Plasma Bubble Event in the High Solar Activity Year 高太阳活动年赤道等离子体气泡事件期间全球电离层地图-TEC的误差

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023sw003714

Long Tang, Fenkai Zhang, Wu Chen

{"title":"The Error of Global Ionospheric Map‐TEC During Equatorial Plasma Bubble Event in the High Solar Activity Year","authors":"Long Tang, Fenkai Zhang, Wu Chen","doi":"10.1029/2023sw003714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023sw003714","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the error of total electron content (TEC) derived from the global ionospheric map (GIM) (GIM‐TEC) during equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) event is investigated for the first time. The frequently‐used assessment parameter of ionospheric TEC model, namely difference of Slant TEC (difference of slant total electron content (dSTEC)) is checked and employed based on eight global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations distributed around the geomagnetic equator during the high solar activity year of 2014. The international GNSS service final GIM products are exemplified. The results present several interesting findings: (a) The observed dSTEC series is biased when an EPB is observed at the highest satellite elevation, leading to a fake bias in GIM‐TEC; (b) When an EPB occurred, the error of GIM‐TEC can increases or decreases and its variation sign is unrelated to the magnitude of EPB; (c) The average of the EPB‐induced GIM‐TEC errors is mainly at −5 to 5 TECU with 76% (24%) of positive (negative) values, and the maximum (minimum) is close to 10 TECU (−10 TECU); (d) The structure of EPB is unable to be captured by the GIM‐TEC series.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"66 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141404932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux 基于物理的环流模型的降序概率仿真：应用于 RAM-SCB 粒子通量

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023sw003706

Alfredo A Cruz, Rashmi Siddalingappa, P. Mehta, Steven K. Morley, Humberto C Godinez, V. Jordanova

{"title":"Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux","authors":"Alfredo A Cruz, Rashmi Siddalingappa, P. Mehta, Steven K. Morley, Humberto C Godinez, V. Jordanova","doi":"10.1029/2023sw003706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023sw003706","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345. A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.","PeriodicalId":510519,"journal":{"name":"Space Weather","volume":"106 15","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141407284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Relationship Between NM Data and Radiation Dose at Aviation Altitudes During GLE Events GLE 事件期间 NM 数据与航空高度辐射剂量之间的关系

Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1029/2024sw003885

N. Larsen, A. Mishev

引用次数: 0