Applied Mathematical Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Evolutionary invasion model of the viral virulence in a symptom-dependent SIS community","authors":"Fengying Wei ,&nbsp;Siying Xiong ,&nbsp;Zhen Jin ,&nbsp;Jianfeng Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116152","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116152","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impacts of viral virulence and its evolution on transmission dynamics are important for the public and the policymakers during the spread of infectious diseases. To reveal the impacts of viral virulence evolution on transmission dynamics within the population, we formulate a coupled SIS-v model with viral virulence, in which transmission rate and disease-induced death rate are set as functions of viral virulence. The dynamic analysis for SIS model and SIS-v model are extensively explored within the symptom-dependent community against viral virulence evolution. Precisely, the expressions of basic reproduction numbers for two models are derived by the next generation matrix method, the existence and stabilities of equilibrium points are then derived by Routh-Hurwitz criterion and LaSalle's invariance principle. By the adaptive dynamics method, the results reveal that when the asymptomatic boundary equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, the mutant virus could invade the population with resident virus under certain conditions, and the globally asymptotically stable viral virulence is the evolutionary singularity that maximizes both the invasion fitness and the absolute fitness for mutant virus. When the symptomatic boundary equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, the conclusion is the same. Furthermore, the numerical simulations with respect to viral virulence are performed using SIS model and surveillance data. The corresponding results show that SARS-CoV-2 virulence is relaxed, when the evolution starts from wild strain to Delta strain and further to Omicron strain. The increase of viral virulence contributes to the enhancement of infection scale. While, the decrease of viral virulence contributes to the decline of basic reproduction number. The invasion fitness of mutant virus obeys the increasing tendency with the enhancement of viral virulence, until the invasion fitness reaches the maximum. The main results provide three significant insights for the public and the policymakers of local government to fight against the spread of infectious diseases: the features of viral virulence evolution are helpful to the public against the newly emerging strains; the non-pharmacological interventions of the local government effectively decline basic reproduction number for the asymptomatic individuals and the symptomatic individuals within the key population; when the key population consists of the asymptomatic individuals, the local government should focus on the prompt nucleic acid screening against the spread of epidemic; when the key population consists of the symptomatic individuals, the local government should strengthen isolation measures for the symptomatic individuals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 116152"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A novel mode-I elliptic crack problem in one-dimensional hexagonal quasicrystals with the crack plane parallel to the quasi-periodic direction","authors":"Haining Liu ,&nbsp;Ruifeng Zheng ,&nbsp;Yuzhe Wang ,&nbsp;Zichen Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116150","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116150","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article studies a non-traditional elliptic crack problem in one-dimensional (1-D) hexagonal quasicrystals (QCs). The crack surface is parallel to the quasi-periodic axis of QCs and is subjected to a pair of uniform normal loadings. A unit point dislocation problem is considered first to derive the governing equation for the crack problem with an arbitrarily shaped planar crack, based on the potential theory method. The phonon-phason coupling field of the crack problem is expressed by simple integrals. The key fracture parameters, including the crack surface displacement (CSD) and stress intensity factor (SIF) are obtained. The analytical solutions are validated and the effects of eccentricity, phason field, crack orientation and material constants on the CSD and SIF are investigated. The results presented in this paper offer insights into the fracture mechanism of 1-D hexagonal QCs, while also providing a theoretical foundation for the design, optimization, and manufacture of QCs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 116150"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bivariate rounded Z-valued autoregressive models with flexible auto- and cross-correlations","authors":"Qi Li ,&nbsp;Nuo Xu ,&nbsp;Fukang Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116151","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116151","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Discrete time series data include count values and <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span> values. Count time series models have been well studied in the literature, and univariate <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued models also receive their own advances and progress, but the bivariate <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued models are rare. Existing bivariate <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued models are constructed using the thinning operator, which limits their flexibility. The recently rediscovered univariate mean-preserving rounded operator can break these limits and we extend it to the bivariate case. This paper introduces a novel class of bivariate <span><math><mi>Z</mi></math></span>-valued autoregressive models based on a new kind of bivariate Skellam distribution and the bivariate mean-preserving rounded operator, a <em>p</em>th-order model without pairwise interaction and a first-order model with pairwise interaction, which provides very flexible range of auto- and cross-correlations. The stationarity conditions and some stochastic properties (including expressions for unconditional mean, variance, autocorrelation function, cross-correlation function, and conditional probability distribution) of the new models are given. An easy-to-implement two-step conditional least squares estimation procedure for the parameters and related large-sample asymptotic properties are provided. Simulations and three real data examples from different fields are illustrated to demonstrate the superiority of the new models compared with existing ones.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 116151"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143883243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shape stabilization and flocking control for multi-agent systems with infinitesimal ratio-of-distance rigidity","authors":"Xiaorui Wu ,&nbsp;Xianjie Zheng ,&nbsp;Yang Gao ,&nbsp;Chen Qian ,&nbsp;Yifei Wu ,&nbsp;Qingwei Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116153","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116153","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Driven by the challenge of stabilizing formations in multi-agent systems under constraints of limited sensor measurements, this paper investigates a class of distributed formation control problems where each agent relies solely on its onboard sensing information, without access to global information. To address this, a novel distributed formation control approach is designed based on the theory of infinitesimal ratio-of-distance rigidity. This approach relies solely on ratio-of-distance and direction information, which can be derived from local sensor measurements, and achieves shape stabilization even when position, displacement, and aligned bearing information are unmeasurable. This allows the entire formation system to achieve stability, characterized by local exponential convergence while maintaining freedoms of translation, rotation, and scaling. Additionally, the concept of signed frameworks is introduced, which provides initial conditions that can avoid undesired equilibrium points and realize target shapes. As another significant contribution, this paper proves that triangular formations in 2D space and tetrahedral formations in 3D space can converge to the desired formation with almost global exponential stability. Finally, simulation examples and physical experiments are presented to validate the effectiveness of the proposed formation controller.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 116153"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A grey incidence model with cumulative time-delay effects and its applications","authors":"Jing Sun ,&nbsp;Yaoguo Dang ,&nbsp;Shengxiang Yang ,&nbsp;Junjie Wang ,&nbsp;Ying Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116144","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116144","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To identify the time-delay relationship between sequences more accurately, we propose a grey incidence model for time-delay systems. Before constructing the new model, we first clarify several time-delay relationships, including instantaneous form and cumulative form. Subsequently, the Weibull distribution is initially used to represent multiple types of time-delay effects. To reduce the computational load, the minimum cumulative step size is designed to simplify convolution, which is used to aggregate cumulative time delay effects in our research. This facilitates us to extract discrepancy information using relative angles and distances. To streamline the process of obtaining results, we utilize particle swarm optimization to optimize the self-adaptive parameters of the Weibull distribution and obtain cumulative time-delay information. The proposed model is validated through numerical experiments to analyze the time-delay effects of key influencing factors on air pollution. Finally, a comparative analysis with ten prevailing models demonstrates that our model not only integrates the functionalities of traditional models but also exhibits significant advantages in the detection of continuous time delay.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 116144"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143859828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Special lognormal diffusion processes with binomial random catastrophes and applications to economic data","authors":"Antonio Di Crescenzo ,&nbsp;Sabina Musto ,&nbsp;Paola Paraggio ,&nbsp;Francisco Torres-Ruiz","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work introduces and analyzes lognormal diffusion processes subject to random catastrophes, i.e. random events which cause jumps and reset the process to a possibly different random state. The model incorporates a binomial distribution for the restarting points and employs stochastic techniques to describe cycles between catastrophes. A maximum likelihood approach is developed to estimate the model parameters and it is applied both to simulated and real data. More specifically, we perform a simulation study based on 50 replications and 500 sample paths, both in the case in which the size of the binomial distribution is known and in the case in which it is unknown. Moreover, we provide a real application to GDP (gross domestic product) trajectories of five European countries affected by the economic crises of 2009 and 2020. The analysis demonstrates the model's effectiveness in mimicking complex phenomena characterized by growth dynamics interrupted by random external events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 116146"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Variance of belief information","authors":"Xingyuan Chen ,&nbsp;Tianxiang Zhan ,&nbsp;Guohui Zhou ,&nbsp;Yong Deng","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116148","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116148","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In alignment with the law of large numbers, the Gaussian distribution is a prevalent occurrence characterized by its expectation and variance. The expectation denotes the mean state of the system, whereas the variance encapsulates the system's degree of fluctuation. Information entropy represents the expectation of information content, with Deng entropy extending this concept to the distribution of mass. As a pivotal attribute of complex systems, the variance of the associated information remains an unresolved issue. This paper introduces the concept of belief information variance, addressing a void within the mass function framework. It delves into the mathematical attributes of this proposed variance, including non-negativity, translation invariance, and homogeneity. Utilizing the principle of entropy increase, the paper investigates the temporal dynamics of variance by traversing the mass space, uncovering two types of dynamic orbits on complex surfaces. Moreover, classification experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that incorporating the variance improves classification accuracy of evidential decision making methods. The introduction of the variance offers a theoretical foundation for exploring the volatility of belief information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"146 ","pages":"Article 116148"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143870477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A bi-level programming model for optimizing location, capacity, and pricing decisions of origin warehouses in an agricultural supply chain","authors":"Yiwen Gao ,&nbsp;Xifu Wang ,&nbsp;Kai Yang ,&nbsp;Junchi Ma ,&nbsp;Lijun Jiang ,&nbsp;Qin Luo","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116145","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116145","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As new infrastructures for the \"first mile\" in an agricultural supply chain, origin warehouses are highly valued and supported for reducing the loss of agricultural products. With this regard, we develop a bi-level programming model for optimizing the construction and operation of agricultural product origin warehouses. Specifically, the upper-level supply chain enterprise makes decisions regarding the location, capacity, and pricing of the origin warehouses, while the lower-level planters focus on determining the sales allocation plan of agricultural products to various origin warehouses to maximize their profits. To deal with the computational complexity of proposed model, we first divide the original problem into three subproblems related to the location, operation of origin warehouse and sales allocation plan of planters. Subsequently, we develop a hybrid adaptive large neighborhood search algorithm combined with the heuristic rule-based mechanism and the gurobi solver. Taking the Shilin area of Yunnan, China as a case study, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm. The numerical results indicate that the construction of origin warehouses follows a \"1 + <em>N</em>\" layout strategy, featuring one larger core warehouse and N smaller warehouses, thereby balancing both logistics efficiency and cost. In addition, these origin warehouses attract higher quality agricultural products by adopting tiered pricing and premium-for-quality strategies, which benefit both the agricultural supply chain company and the planters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 116145"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143850515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scattering of Rayleigh wave by inclined surface open cracks: Numerical simulations based on reciprocity theorem and verification using finite element method","authors":"Shuzeng Zhang,&nbsp;Yuzan Liu,&nbsp;Lei Wang,&nbsp;Fengling Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Surface cracks typically exhibit a range of characteristics, including varying depths and inclined angles. Investigating the interaction between ultrasonic surface waves and these cracks is crucial for the non-destructive evaluation of their properties. In this work, the amplitudes of Rayleigh waves scattered in the far field by inclined surface open cracks with depths exceeding the wavelength are investigated in a two-dimensional plane. An integral equation, derived from the reciprocity theorem, is formulated for the scattered Rayleigh waves, which is equivalent to the radiated fields from forces and tractions generated by the incident waves at the surface of the crack. Within this integral equation framework, the crack opening displacements caused by the incident Rayleigh waves are determined by solving singular integral equations based on Chebyshev's theorem. An oblique coordinate system is introduced to obtain solutions for the scattered Rayleigh waves generated by inclined cracks. Numerical solutions for the scattered Rayleigh waves are provided, employing reflection and transmission coefficients to investigate the influence of crack length, inclined angle, and depth on wave scattering. It is found that the transmission coefficients of Rayleigh waves exhibit high sensitivity to crack depth, whereas the reflection coefficients depend on both the crack depth and its inclined angle. The finite element method has been used to validate the simulation results obtained from the proposed theory. This theory can further enhance the quantitative assessment of surface cracks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 116147"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143848204","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling and nonlinear analysis of frictional jointed beams with inerter-based dynamic vibration absorber","authors":"Baiyang Shi ,&nbsp;Wei Dai ,&nbsp;Chendi Zhu ,&nbsp;Ruobing Li ,&nbsp;Quanmin Zhu ,&nbsp;Jian Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116143","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apm.2025.116143","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the effectiveness of an inerter-based dynamic vibration absorber (IDVA) in suppressing vibrations in a nonlinearly jointed beam structure. The governing partial differential equations are derived and discretized using the finite element method, followed by transformation into ordinary differential equations via the Galerkin method. To efficiently compute the steady-state dynamic response and vibration power flow variables, the harmonic balance method with an alternating frequency–time (HB-AFT) scheme is employed. The results demonstrate that the proposed grounded IDVA design achieves superior vibration reduction and energy absorption compared to other designs. The nonlinear frictional joint exhibits distinct behaviour depending on the limit friction force: at smaller limit friction forces, the joint behaves as a frictional damper, resulting in lower response peaks and potential stick-slip motion at the beam tips; at larger limit friction forces, the joint acts as a stiffener, inducing full-stick behaviour and increasing the natural frequency. Additionally, the stiffness nonlinearity primarily influences the system response near the third and fifth resonant peaks, whereas the inertance value significantly affects the first resonant peak. The power dissipation characteristics vary with excitation frequency, with the IDVA dissipating the majority of energy between the first and second resonant frequencies. A design suggestion is to position the IDVA away from the fixed boundary to minimize both the dynamic response and the kinetic energy of the system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":50980,"journal":{"name":"Applied Mathematical Modelling","volume":"145 ","pages":"Article 116143"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}