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Wishful Thinking or Valuable Forecasts? The Value of Policy Rate Predictions in Sweden 一厢情愿还是有价值的预测?瑞典政策利率预测的价值
IgMin Research Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.61927/igmin116
Hansson Åsa
{"title":"Wishful Thinking or Valuable Forecasts? The Value of Policy Rate Predictions in Sweden","authors":"Hansson Åsa","doi":"10.61927/igmin116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.61927/igmin116","url":null,"abstract":"Economists often provide predictions about future interest or policy rates. In contrast to stock market predictions, these forecasts are typically regarded seriously and presented with a degree of accuracy. This paper explores whether placing more confidence in policy rate predictions than stock market predictions is reasonable. It begins by examining historical policy rates predictions in Sweden, comparing them to actual rates to assess their accuracy. The paper then delves into the discussion of how costs of mispredictions, such as sudden and unexpected policy rate increases, can and should be addressed. Despite the Central Bank making predictions within confidence intervals and the banking sector regulating individuals’ borrowing, the burden of unpredicted rate increases falls almost entirely on individuals. The paper addresses whether that is reasonable.","PeriodicalId":509147,"journal":{"name":"IgMin Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139268750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Reliability Evaluation of Professional Assessments 专业评估的可靠性评估
IgMin Research Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.61927/igmin111
Thiel Jr Charles C
{"title":"Reliability Evaluation of Professional Assessments","authors":"Thiel Jr Charles C","doi":"10.61927/igmin111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.61927/igmin111","url":null,"abstract":"All professional technical assessment processes are fraught with uncertainty. If a decision is premised upon the result, the decision maker must understand the reliability of the performed assessment. A causal theory application is developed utilizing distinct (linguistic, ordered) terms and continuous (numerical) variables. It uncouples the methods from the result of the assessment obtained and focuses on those aspects that are important to the reliability assessment of the conclusion, not the answer itself. Matrices provide a means of characterizing the uncertainty of the methods and information available for each principal issue impacting the reliability. These matrices are determined as paired qualitative assessments of the Quality of the Measures Used and the Quality of Implementation of component description measures. Each is qualified by two to five grades, allowing three, five, seven, or nine quality distinctions for the assessed element. Uncertainty β values are determined for each component of the assessment combined by either an RMS procedure or a weighted average and converting a numerical value back to a consistent linguistic term. This procedure yields a basis for using good judgment while being sensible and reasonably cautious by independently determining the reliability using a carefully considered approach. California State University has assessed seismic retrofit priorities for 56 buildings using this method and has committed to its continuing use as its retrofit priority evaluation tool.","PeriodicalId":509147,"journal":{"name":"IgMin Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139269883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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