Geoscientific Model Development最新文献

{"title":"Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3","authors":"Jiwoo Lee, P. Gleckler, Min-Seop Ahn, Ana Ordonez, Paul A. Ullrich, K. Sperber, Karl E. Taylor, Yann Y. Planton, E. Guilyardi, P. Durack, C. Bonfils, M. Zelinka, Li‐Wei Chao, Bo Dong, C. Doutriaux, Chengzhu Zhang, Tom Vo, J. Boutte, M. Wehner, A. Pendergrass, Daehyun Kim, Zeyu Xue, A. Wittenberg, J. Krasting","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"119 27","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140977581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A revised model of global silicate weathering considering the influence of vegetation cover on erosion rate","authors":"Haoyue Zuo, Yonggang Liu, Gaojun Li, Zhifang Xu, Liang Zhao, Zhengtang Guo, Yongyun Hu","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3949-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Silicate weathering, which is of great importance in regulating the global carbon cycle, has been found to be affected by complicated factors, including climate, tectonics and vegetation. However, the exact transfer function between these factors and the silicate weathering rate is still unclear, leading to large model–data discrepancies in the CO2 consumption associated with silicate weathering. Here we propose a simple parameterization for the influence of vegetation cover on erosion rate to improve the model–data comparison based on a state-of-the-art silicate weathering model. We found out that the current weathering model tends to overestimate the silicate weathering fluxes in the tropical region, which can hardly be explained by either the uncertainties in climate and geomorphological conditions or the optimization of model parameters. We show that such an overestimation of the tropical weathering rate can be rectified significantly by parameterizing the shielding effect of vegetation cover on soil erosion using the leaf area index (LAI), the high values of which are coincident with the distribution of leached soils. We propose that the heavy vegetation in the tropical region likely slows down the erosion rate, much more so than thought before, by reducing extreme streamflow in response to precipitation. The silicate weathering model thus revised gives a smaller global weathering flux which is arguably more consistent with the observed value and the recently reconstructed global outgassing, both of which are subject to uncertainties. The model is also easily applicable to the deep-time Earth to investigate the influence of land plants on the global biogeochemical cycle.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"10 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140976575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"LB-SCAM: a learning-based method for efficient large-scale sensitivity analysis and tuning of the Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM)","authors":"Jiaxu Guo, Juepeng Zheng, Yidan Xu, Haohuan Fu, Wei Xue, Lanning Wang, Lin Gan, Ping Gao, W. Wan, Xianwei Wu, Zhitao Zhang, Liang Hu, Gaochao Xu, Xilong Che","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3975-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The single-column model, with its advantages of low computational cost and fast execution speed, can assist users in gaining a more intuitive understanding of the impact of parameters on the simulated results of climate models. It plays a crucial role in the study of parameterization schemes, allowing for a more direct exploration of the influence of parameters on climate model simulations. In this paper, we employed various methods to conduct sensitivity analyses on the 11 parameters of the Single Column Atmospheric Model (SCAM). We explored their impact on output variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and cloud cover, among others, across five test cases. To further expedite experimentation, we utilized machine learning methods to train surrogate models for the aforementioned cases. Additionally, three-parameter joint perturbation experiments were conducted based on these surrogate models to validate the combined parameter effects on the results. Subsequently, targeting the sensitive parameter combinations identified from the aforementioned experiments, we further conducted parameter tuning for the corresponding test cases to minimize the discrepancy between the results of SCAM and observational data. Our proposed method not only enhances model performance but also expedites parameter tuning speed, demonstrating good generality at the same time.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"90 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140973151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Three-dimensional variational assimilation with a multivariate background error covariance for the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere with the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI-MPAS 2.0.0-beta)","authors":"Byoung-Joo Jung, B. Ménétrier, C. Snyder, Zhiquan Liu, J. Guerrette, J. Ban, I. Banos, Yonggang G. Yu, W. Skamarock","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3879-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This paper describes the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation (DA) system for the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere with the Joint Effort for Data assimilation Integration (JEDI-MPAS). Its core element is a multivariate background error covariance implemented through multiple linear variable changes, including a wind variable change from stream function and velocity potential to zonal- and meridional-wind components, a vertical linear regression representing wind–mass balance, and multiplication by a diagonal matrix of error standard deviations. The univariate spatial correlations for the “unbalanced” variables utilize the Background error on Unstructured Mesh Package (BUMP), which is one of the generic components in the JEDI framework. The variable changes and univariate correlations are modeled directly on the native MPAS unstructured mesh. BUMP provides utilities to diagnose parameters of the covariance model, such as correlation lengths, from an ensemble of forecast differences, though some manual adjustment of the parameters is necessary because of mismatches between the univariate correlation function assumed by BUMP and the correlation structure in the sample of forecast differences. The resulting multivariate covariances, as revealed by single-observation tests, are qualitatively similar to those found in previous global 3D-Var systems. Month-long cycling DA experiments using a global quasi-uniform 60 km mesh demonstrate that 3D-Var, as expected, performs somewhat worse than a pure ensemble-based covariance, while a hybrid covariance, which combines that used in 3D-Var with the ensemble covariance, significantly outperforms both 3D-Var and the pure ensemble covariance. Due to its simple workflow and minimal computational requirements, the JEDI-MPAS 3D-Var system can be useful for the research community.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"6 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140974871","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"FUME 2.0 – Flexible Universal processor for Modeling Emissions","authors":"Michal Belda, N. Benesová, J. Resler, P. Huszár, O. Vlcek, P. Krč, J. Karlický, P. Jurus, K. Eben","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3867-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This paper introduces FUME 2.0, an open-source emission processor for air quality modeling, and documents the software structure, capabilities, and sample usage. FUME provides a customizable framework for emission preparation tailored to user needs. It is designed to work with heterogeneous emission inventory data, unify them into a common structure, and generate model-ready emissions for various chemical transport models (CTMs). Key features include flexibility in input data formats, support for spatial and temporal disaggregation, chemical speciation, and integration of external models like MEGAN. FUME employs a modular Python interface and PostgreSQL/PostGIS backend for efficient data handling. The workflow comprises data import, geographical transformation, chemical and temporal disaggregation, and output generation steps. Outputs for mesoscale CTMs CMAQ, CAMx, and WRF-Chem and the large-eddy-simulation model PALM are implemented along with a generic NetCDF format. Benchmark runs are discussed on a typical configuration with cascading domains, with import and preprocessing times scaling near-linearly with grid size. FUME facilitates air quality modeling from continental to regional and urban scales by enabling effective processing of diverse inventory datasets.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"32 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140975673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the impact of SST feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation simulations","authors":"Y. Lan, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, W. Tseng","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3897-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This study uses the Community Atmosphere Model 5.3 coupled to a 1-D ocean model to investigate the effects of intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) feedback frequency on Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) simulations with intervals at 30 min and 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 30 d. The large-scale nature of the MJO in simulations remains intact with decreasing feedback frequency, although it becomes increasingly unrealistic in both structure and amplitude, until 1 per 30 d when the intraseasonal fluctuations are overwhelmingly dominated by unorganized small-scale perturbations in both atmosphere and ocean, as well as at the atmosphere–ocean interface where heat and energy are rigorously exchanged. The main conclusion is that the less frequent the SST feedback, the more unrealistic the simulations. Our results suggest that more spontaneous atmosphere–ocean interaction (e.g., ocean response once every time step to every 3 d in this study) with high vertical resolution in the ocean model is a key to the realistic simulation of the MJO and should be properly implemented in climate models.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"120 30","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140977364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of multi-season convection-permitting atmosphere – mixed-layer ocean simulations of the Maritime Continent","authors":"Emma Howard, S. Woolnough, N. Klingaman, Daniel Shipley, Claudio Sanchez, Simon C. Peatman, C. Birch, A. Matthews","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3815-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. A multi-season convection-permitting regional climate simulation of the Maritime Continent (MC) using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) with 2.2 km grid spacing is presented and evaluated. The simulations pioneer the use of atmosphere–ocean coupling with the multi-column K profile parametrisation (KPP) mixed-layer ocean model in atmospheric convection-permitting climate simulations. Comparisons are made against a convection-parametrised simulation in which it is nested and which in turn derives boundary conditions from the ERA5 reanalysis. This paper describes the configuration, performance of the mean state and variability in the two simulations compared against observational datasets. The models have both minor sea surface temperature (SST) and wet precipitation biases. The diurnal cycle, representation of equatorial waves, and relationship between SST and precipitation are all improved in the convection-permitting model compared to the convection-parametrised model. The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is present in both models with a faster-than-observed propagation speed. However, it is unclear whether fidelity of the MJO simulation is inherent to the model or whether it predominantly arises from the forcing at the boundaries.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"62 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140979106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A radiative–convective model computing precipitation with the maximum entropy production hypothesis","authors":"Quentin Pikeroen, Didier Paillard, Karine Watrin","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3801-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. All climate models use parameterizations and tuning in order to be accurate. The different parameterizations and tuning processes are the primary source of difference between models. Because models are tuned with present observations of Earth, they may not accurately simulate climates of other planets or palaeoclimate. A model with no adjustable parameter that happens to fit today's observations is probably more universal and should be more appropriate to model palaeoclimate. However, to our knowledge, such a model does not exist or is yet to be developed. This paper aims to improve a parameter-free radiative–convective model that computes a realistic temperature vertical profile to compute the water cycle, giving a value on average tropical precipitation. Although it is known that the radiative transfer constrains the order of magnitude of precipitation, no parameter-free model has yet been able to compute precipitation. Our model finds a precipitation value closer to observations than similar radiative–convective models or some general circulation models (GCMs).\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"98 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140978549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"DEUCE v1.0: a neural network for probabilistic precipitation nowcasting with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties","authors":"Bent Harnist, S. Pulkkinen, T. Mäkinen","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3839-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Precipitation nowcasting (forecasting locally for 0–6 h) serves both public security and industries, facilitating the mitigation of losses incurred due to, e.g., flash floods and is usually done by predicting weather radar echoes, which provide better performance than numerical weather prediction (NWP) at that scale. Probabilistic nowcasts are especially useful as they provide a desirable framework for operational decision-making. Many extrapolation-based statistical nowcasting methods exist, but they all suffer from a limited ability to capture the nonlinear growth and decay of precipitation, leading to a recent paradigm shift towards deep-learning methods which are more capable of representing these patterns. Despite its potential advantages, the application of deep learning in probabilistic nowcasting has only recently started to be explored. Here we develop a novel probabilistic precipitation nowcasting method, based on Bayesian neural networks with variational inference and the U-Net architecture, named DEUCE. The method estimates the total predictive uncertainty in the precipitation by combining estimates of the epistemic (knowledge-related and reducible) and heteroscedastic aleatoric (data-dependent and irreducible) uncertainties, using them to produce an ensemble of development scenarios for the following 60 min. DEUCE is trained and verified using Finnish Meteorological Institute radar composites compared to established classical models. Our model is found to produce both skillful and reliable probabilistic nowcasts based on various evaluation criteria. It improves the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve scores 1 %–5 % over STEPS and LINDA-P baselines and comes close to the best-performer STEPS on a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) metric. The reliability of DEUCE is demonstrated with, e.g., having the lowest expected calibration error at 20 and 25 dBZ reflectivity thresholds and coming second at 35 dBZ. On the other hand, the deterministic performance of ensemble means is found to be worse than that of extrapolation and LINDA-D baselines. Last, the composition of the predictive uncertainty is analyzed and described, with the conclusion that aleatoric uncertainty is more significant and informative than epistemic uncertainty in the DEUCE model.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"76 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140978776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating the impact of coupling HARMONIE-WINS50 (cy43) meteorology to LOTOS-EUROS (v2.2.002) on a simulation of NO2 concentrations over the Netherlands","authors":"Andrés Yarce Botero, M. van Weele, A. Segers, Pier Siebesma, H. Eskes","doi":"10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3765-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Meteorological fields calculated by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models drive offline chemical transport models (CTMs) to solve the transport, chemical reactions, and atmospheric interaction over the geographical domain of interest. HARMONIE (HIRLAM ALADIN Research on Mesoscale Operational NWP in Euromed) is a state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic NWP community model used at several European weather agencies to forecast weather at the local and/or regional scale. In this work, the HARMONIE WINS50 (cycle 43 cy43) reanalysis dataset at a resolution of 0.025° × 0.025° covering an area surrounding the North Sea for the years 2019–2021 was coupled offline to the LOTOS-EUROS (LOng-Term Ozone Simulation-EURopean Operational Smog model, v2.2.002) CTM. The impact of using either meteorological fields from HARMONIE or from ECMWF on LOTOS-EUROS simulations of NO2 has been evaluated against ground-level observations and TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 vertical columns. Furthermore, the difference between crucial meteorological input parameters such as the boundary layer height and the vertical diffusion coefficient between the hydrostatic ECMWF and non-hydrostatic HARMONIE data has been studied, and the vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and wind are evaluated against meteorological observations at Cabauw in The Netherlands. The results of these first evaluations of the LOTOS-EUROS model performance in both configurations are used to investigate current uncertainties in air quality forecasting in relation to driving meteorological parameters and to assess the potential for improvements in forecasting pollution episodes at high resolutions based on the HARMONIE NWP model.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509138,"journal":{"name":"Geoscientific Model Development","volume":"53 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140984894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}