Agricultural Economics最新文献

{"title":"Is Being Bold Better? Industry Expectations of USDA Corn and Soybean Production Estimates","authors":"Berna Karali,&nbsp;Olga Isengildina-Massa,&nbsp;Scott H. Irwin","doi":"10.1111/agec.70032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70032","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Despite the extensive use of industry expectations in measuring forecast accuracy and price reactions to USDA reports, very little is known about their properties beyond the basic statistical characteristics of bias, rationality, efficiency, and relative accuracy. Using unique proprietary data of firm-level expectations for upcoming USDA corn and soybean production estimates, we demonstrate that these forecasts exhibit cognitive biases such as attribution and anchoring. Prior success leads to overconfidence and bolder forecasts, and firms base their forecasts on a known reference value. We also show that the bolder the forecasts, the lesser the accuracy, indicating that substantially deviating from the herd does not pay off when it comes to crop production forecasts.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 5","pages":"802-822"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70032","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Providing Free Trial Packs With Demonstration Plots Increase the Adoption of Agricultural Technologies? Cost Effectiveness Evidence From Tanzania","authors":"Mywish K. Maredia,&nbsp;Jarrad Farris,&nbsp;Nicole M. Mason,&nbsp;Stephen Morgan","doi":"10.1111/agec.70033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70033","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study evaluates the effectiveness of the common practice of providing free trial packs alongside demonstration plots managed by local extension agents to promote learning-by-doing and increase technology adoption among bean farmers in Tanzania. The experiment randomly assigned some villages to forgo trial packs containing seeds and a seed treatment for 1 year. Adoption data were collected 1 and 4 years after the intervention. Our findings show that trial packs raised program costs by 37.5 times, but did not lead to a significant or cost-justified increase in adoption. The adoption of improved bean varieties increased from 11% pre-intervention to 28% 4 years post-intervention, with no significant difference between villages with and without trial packs. Although trial packs showed potential for specific groups—such as female, more educated farmers, households in farmer groups, and those living closer to demonstration plots or in smaller villages—their overall impact was limited. These results suggest that demonstration plots, a lower-cost intervention, are more cost-effective. Trial packs may still hold value when targeted, but their widespread use does not justify the additional costs. This study offers key insights for policymakers and development practitioners seeking to implement scalable, efficient agricultural interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 5","pages":"823-838"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70033","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporary Migration Decisions and Effects on Household Income and Diets in Rural Bangladesh","authors":"Md. Sohel Rana,&nbsp;Amy Faye,&nbsp;Matin Qaim","doi":"10.1111/agec.70030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70030","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Temporary migration is a widely observed phenomenon among poor rural households, yet often overlooked by policy-makers and not captured well in standard household surveys. Although temporary migration is often related to agricultural seasonality, household preferences for temporary over longer-term migration, and the differential effects of these two types of migration on livelihoods, are not yet well understood. Here, we use survey data collected in northern Bangladesh to analyze determinants of households’ choice between temporary and longer-term migration, and effects on various livelihood indicators. Issues of selection bias and endogeneity are addressed with instrumental variables. We show that temporary migration is more common than longer-term migration in poor agrarian societies, partly determined by socioeconomic and family demographic constraints. Although longer-term migration has larger positive effects on household income, temporary migration has larger positive effects on food consumption and dietary quality during lean periods. Our results suggest that temporary migration is an important strategy for poor rural households to cope with risks and therefore deserves more explicit attention in research and policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 5","pages":"769-781"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70030","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"World Heritage Status and Farmers’ Income: Evidence From a Regression Discontinuity Design in Colombia","authors":"Orlando Rodríguez,&nbsp;Maria Vrachioli,&nbsp;David Wüpper,&nbsp;Johannes Sauer","doi":"10.1111/agec.70019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70019","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The core of Colombia's coffee growing region was designated as a World Heritage (WH) site in 2011, making a distinction between “the core” of the region and “the periphery.” However, the coffee cultural heritage does not abruptly stop at the WH boundary but it exists inside and outside the boundary. This allows us to use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to identify the income effect for farmers located just inside the WH site. We find that the WH designation of the region increases coffee farmers’ income by up to $757 per month. The mechanism includes more tourism activities inside the coffee farms by 39%, higher adoption of sustainable farming practices, increasing organic coffee production by 8.38%, and increasing payments for environmental services (PES) by 2.35%.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 5","pages":"728-748"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Impacts of Salmonella Dublin in Dairy Farms: Panel Evidence From Denmark","authors":"Dagim Belay,&nbsp;Jakob Vesterlund Olsen","doi":"10.1111/agec.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70016","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Zoonotic1 livestock diseases, such as Salmonella Dublin (SDB), have become a major public health concern in recent decades due to their potential to affect animal protein production, trade, human health, livelihoods, and food security (Hennessy and Marsh &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;). The increased globalization, expansion of human populations, intensification of animal production systems, and changes in land use and climate increase the risk of zoonotic diseases spreading as epidemics and pandemics (Leal et al. &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;). This calls for the need for effective surveillance and monitoring systems to mitigate their impact as highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic. SDB, a strain commonly found in cattle, is one of the most important zoonotic diseases, with rising incidence and widespread antibiotic resistance, which makes it difficult to treat and deadly, killing up to 12% of human infections (Helms et al. &lt;span&gt;2003&lt;/span&gt;; Harvey et al. &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;; Srednik et al. &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;; Velasquez-Munoz et al. &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;; do Amarante et al. &lt;span&gt;2025&lt;/span&gt;). It can remain latent in herds for extended periods in healthy-appearing animals, spreading through infected animal trade, animal contact, or manure, which complicates control and eradication efforts (Nielsen et al. &lt;span&gt;2004&lt;/span&gt;; Velasquez-Munoz et al. &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;). Despite the high prevalence of SDB in cattle (e.g., 60% in Great Britain (APHA &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;) and 18% in the US (Frye &lt;span&gt;2021&lt;/span&gt;)), its role as the main source of human Dublin infections (Helms et al. &lt;span&gt;2003&lt;/span&gt;; Harvey et al. &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;, Velasquez-Munoz et al. &lt;span&gt;2024&lt;/span&gt;) and its capacity to cause severe illness and death in cattle, particularly in calves (Peters &lt;span&gt;1985&lt;/span&gt;; Holschbach and Peek &lt;span&gt;2018&lt;/span&gt;; SEGES &lt;span&gt;2022&lt;/span&gt;), regulatory bodies worldwide have yet to implement adequate measures to control or eradicate SDB in cattle farming.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The absence of effective monitoring systems and the growing issue of multidrug antibiotic resistance in SDB infections present significant challenges for controlling the disease (Harvey et al. &lt;span&gt;2017&lt;/span&gt;). These factors, coupled with the lack of comprehensive farm-level economic estimates, undermine efforts to convince policymakers and farmers to implement stronger regulations and interventions. For instance, while society may aim to reduce human Dublin infections originating from cattle, as seen with initiatives like Denmark's SDB eradication plan in 2008, empirical evidence does not indicate significant farmer participation in SDB reduction efforts, contrary to predictions based solely on cow-level milk yield outcomes (Nielsen et al. &lt;span&gt;2012a, 2012b&lt;/span&gt;; Nielsen et al. &lt;span&gt;2013&lt;/span&gt;), which often fail to account for the complexities of farm management and production behavior (Seegers et al. &lt;span&gt;2003&lt;/span&gt;). Understanding the economic impacts of SDB at the farm level is crucial for identifying fa","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 4","pages":"666-693"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144573720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Credit Constraints, Agricultural Productivity, and Household Welfare in Burkina Faso: A Gender Perspective","authors":"Yaya Ky,&nbsp;Al-Mouksit Akim,&nbsp;Jorge Dávalos,&nbsp;Modeste Dayé,&nbsp;Habi Ky","doi":"10.1111/agec.70017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70017","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We define three ordinal credit constraint levels (low, medium, high) and assess their effects on farmers’ welfare through the agricultural productivity channel. Farmers who are successful in getting credit face a low level of credit constraints. Those who do not obtain credit are disentangled in two levels: the high and medium levels of credit constraints. We study the case of Burkina Faso, a country where women farmers experience unequal property rights, we show that these credit constraints offer more detailed insights than a binary approach. Our findings reveal that easing credit constraints boosts welfare and productivity, with variations based on constraint levels and gender. Additionally, less empowered women farmers exhibit reduced productivity despite better credit access, highlighting gender inequality and land rights issues that lead to women's disempowerment and credit misallocation.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 4","pages":"694-707"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144574253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nature-Based Land Management Practices and Yield Dynamics in Oil Palm Production: Insights From Indonesian Smallholder Growers","authors":"Kibrom T. Sibhatu,&nbsp;Martin Paul Jr. Tabe-Ojong,&nbsp;Hermanto Siregar","doi":"10.1111/agec.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70018","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Nature-based land management (NLM) practices are increasingly promoted for their potential to bridge yield gaps and increase overall crop production. Yet, the extent of NLM adoption, the factors driving it, and its impact on yields remain unknown, particularly among smallholder farmers. This study addresses this knowledge gap using a unique three-round panel dataset from independent smallholder oil palm growers in Indonesia, focusing on three main NLM practices: composting, manual weeding, and organic soil amendments (SA) using lime and gypsum. We employ panel data estimators and a multivariate probit model to examine the yield effects of these practices and assess any potential interdependencies among them. Our findings indicate that the adoption of NLM practices among smallholder growers have been low and inconsistent. We identify several socioeconomic, agricultural, and biophysical factors that contribute to these low and inconsistent adoption rates. Our analysis further reveals little interdependence among the NLM practices, with none displaying a statistically significant positive association with oil palm yields. However, the application of fertilizers and herbicides is associated with higher yields. When we do not control for these yield-increasing inputs, only SA using lime and gypsum shows a positive association with yield gains. Our findings illustrate the complex relationship between NLM practices and oil palm yields among smallholders, shedding light on their potential limitations and challenges.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 5","pages":"713-727"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70018","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145057773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reimagining Agriculture for Growth, Poverty, Nutrition, and Sustainability","authors":"Ramesh Chand","doi":"10.1111/agec.70015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70015","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Since the seminal work of Arthur Lewis in the 1950s, the development economics literature has emphasized the structural transformation of the economy marked by a decline in the share of agriculture in the economy's output and employment in the development process. Based on this literature, policy emphasis for growth and development tilted toward manufacturing and other non-agricultural sectors. Lately, there has been a realization that the importance of agriculture for the economy and society is much larger than what is revealed by its share in GDP. Evidence indicates that changes in occupation structure followed changes in output structure with a long-time gap in several countries. This dissonance has serious implications for employment and disparities in per-worker income in agriculture and non-agriculture, further related to poverty. Hunger globally and in many countries has increased after 2015 despite per capita food output increases. Agriculture is also a significant contributor to climate change and unsustainable use of natural resources and, therefore, can play a critical role in combating climate change. It is imperative to reimagine the role of agriculture in development and its contribution to reducing poverty and combating malnutrition and climate change.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 3","pages":"485-492"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144091793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Analysis of Global and Local Policies for Respecting Planetary Boundaries","authors":"Thomas W. Hertel","doi":"10.1111/agec.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70008","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In a series of highly cited papers over the period of 2009–2023, earth system scientists have identified a set of nine planetary boundaries that must not be breached if we wish to avoid catastrophic consequences for nature and humanity. These range from well-mixed, global boundaries, such as climate-altering atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, to localized limits on freshwater availability and reactive nitrogen entering the environment. Recent estimates suggest that six of the nine planetary boundaries have already been breached. The food system is a key driver of these exceedances and, therefore, must play a key role in any solutions. However, the establishment of these boundaries and the analysis of potential solutions have often been devoid of economic considerations. Furthermore, in the case of several of these planetary boundaries, limited attention has been given to the economic policies that might allow society to address them, as well as the likely synergies and tradeoffs across economic policies targeted to individual objectives. This paper seeks to bring further economic analysis to bear on the quantitative assessment of global and local economic policies aimed at respecting these planetary boundaries, concluding with seven lessons to inform future research on this topic.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 3","pages":"336-348"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144091794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plant-Based versus Conventional Meat in Food Away From Home Settings: Substitution, Complementarity, and Market Impacts","authors":"Vincenzina Caputo,&nbsp;Jayson L. Lusk,&nbsp;Dan Blaustein-Rejto","doi":"10.1111/agec.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70002","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Evidence regarding whether consumers view plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) as substitutes for or complements to meat is mixed; however, the ultimate effect of increased demand for PBMAs on poultry and livestock production depends on this relationship. Existing elasticity estimates primarily come from stated-preference discrete-choice models, which assume all options are substitutes. This study employs a basket-based choice experiment (BBCE) to estimate own- and cross-price elasticities in food-away-from-home consumption settings. The elasticity estimates from the BBCE are then used to calibrate an equilibrium displacement model, which links shifts in demand for PBMAs to livestock and poultry supplies. Our findings indicate (1) there is a mix of complementarity and substitution between conventional meat and PBMAs, (2) the own-price elasticity of PBMAs lies between those of premium meat options (salmon and ribeye steak) and more affordable choices (burgers and chicken breast), and (3) lowering prices of PBMAs (or increasing consumers’ willingness-to-pay for PBMAs) is unlikely to significantly impact conventional poultry and livestock production.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"56 4","pages":"587-603"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144574240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}