Agricultural Economics最新文献

Major Global Disruptions and Food Security Links–How the Iran War and Chokepoint Tensions May Affect Global Hunger 重大的全球破坏和粮食安全联系——伊朗战争和咽喉紧张局势如何影响全球饥饿

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-15 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70152

Bernardina Algieri, Lukas Kornher, Joachim von Braun

{"title":"Major Global Disruptions and Food Security Links–How the Iran War and Chokepoint Tensions May Affect Global Hunger","authors":"Bernardina Algieri, Lukas Kornher, Joachim von Braun","doi":"10.1111/agec.70152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70152","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The escalation of conflict in the Middle East in 2026 and the disruptions affecting major maritime chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor, threaten global food security through higher energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs. We argue that the shock is more structural than previous crises because it simultaneously affects core agricultural inputs and trade routes, unlike the 2022 price spike in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which primarily caused temporary supply shortages. This has especially severe consequences for import-dependent economies in the Gulf area, Africa, and other low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While energy price shocks can be transmitted relatively quickly to food markets through immediate changes in production and transportation costs, shipping cost and fertilizer price shocks tend to operate with longer adjustment lags because they propagate through physical supply chains and agricultural production processes. Prolonged energy market disruptions stemming from conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, together with tensions affecting Bab el-Mandeb, or future disruptions from (geo)political conflicts, entail the risk of trade policy responses and further market disturbances that could exacerbate the ongoing crisis. We highlight that rising prices for energy, shipping, and food are placing an immense strain on LMICs already burdened by heavy debt, limited access to finance, and inflationary pressure, with implications for food security and hunger.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"57 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70152","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149205784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimation of Global Crop Area Elasticities: A Bayesian Approach 全球作物面积弹性估算：贝叶斯方法

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70150

Sunghwi Woo, Shawn Arita, Wyatt Thompson

引用次数: 0

Market and Welfare Effects of Restructuring US Beef Packing for Competition and Resilience 重组美国牛肉包装对竞争和弹性的市场和福利影响

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-04 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70151

Azzeddine Azzam, Sunil Dhoubhadel

引用次数: 0

The Impact of the EU Common Agricultural Policy on Regional Agricultural Productivity 欧盟共同农业政策对区域农业生产力的影响

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-28 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70148

Anna Renhart, Tamás Krisztin, Philipp Piribauer

引用次数: 0

The Accuracy of Equity Analysts’ Earnings Per Share Forecasts of Agribusinesses and Sugar-Using Firms 股票分析师对农业综合企业和食糖企业每股收益预测的准确性

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-17 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70149

Carlos O. Trejo-Pech, Karen L. DeLong, Robert Johansson

{"title":"The Accuracy of Equity Analysts’ Earnings Per Share Forecasts of Agribusinesses and Sugar-Using Firms","authors":"Carlos O. Trejo-Pech, Karen L. DeLong, Robert Johansson","doi":"10.1111/agec.70149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70149","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study evaluates equity analysts’ earnings forecasts, comparing United States (U.S.) sugar-using firms (SUF), and a selected group of agribusinesses (AGB). Aspects of U.S. sugar policy, reinitiated in 1982, help to ensure a reliable and predictable domestic supply of SUF's primary ingredient, sugar. U.S. sugar policy requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to generate publicly available sugar supply and demand forecasts through its <i>World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates</i> (<i>WASDE</i>) report, introduced in 1992 and expanded in 2008 to include Mexican sugar forecasts. Therefore, we examined whether the reinitiation of U.S. sugar policy, the initiation of <i>WASDE</i> sugar forecasts, and the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for sugar trade benefited SUF by improving equity analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasting accuracy for these firms. This analysis, mainly based on difference-in-differences and event-study regression, focused on EPS forecast accuracy from 1976 to 2025. Consistent with our hypothesis, we found that improvements in SUF EPS forecast accuracy were statistically associated with the reinitiation of U.S. sugar policy in 1982 and, to a lesser extent, with the implementation of the NAFTA sugar provision in 2008. More broadly, our analysis suggests that, given its role as a price- and supply-stabilizer, U.S. sugar policy might have caused a structural shift in the U.S. sugar industry, providing a more predictable business environment, and that its legacy may remain present in the contemporary forecasting environment.</p>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"57 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/agec.70149","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148994591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is the Price Right? The Case of the Nutrient Abatement in Chinese Hog Production 价格合适吗？中国生猪生产中的营养减量化案例

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-15 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70146

Youpei Yan, Robert G. Chambers

{"title":"Is the Price Right? The Case of the Nutrient Abatement in Chinese Hog Production","authors":"Youpei Yan, Robert G. Chambers","doi":"10.1111/agec.70146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70146","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding how abatement interacts with production requires a framework that recognizes distinct but interdependent technical processes. This paper applies a full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) system with endogenous regime switching to three groups of Chinese hog farms using different abatement strategies. Each group operates along two separable frontiers (one for production and one for abatement) linked through the shared land input. With a first-stage correction for nonrandom technology choice, the joint FIML estimation identifies the active regime, recovers shadow prices, and distinguishes inefficiency from imbalance within each technological setting. The FIML design shows that this structural approach addresses distortions that arise when production and abatement are evaluated within a single-frontier framework or a two-frontier framework without endogenous-switching. Results reveal systematic differences in land requirements, shadow prices, and regime responses across abatement systems. Ignoring technological heterogeneity risks mispricing pollution control, leading to inefficient or uneven regulatory burdens across farms.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"57 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148965641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Land Fragmentation and Technology Adoption in Rice Production: Evidence From Vietnam 水稻生产中的土地破碎化与技术采用：来自越南的证据

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-15 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70147

Nguyen Thai Phan, Ji Yong Lee, Rodolfo M. Nayga Jr.

引用次数: 0

Transforming Food Systems in Times of Global Disorder 在全球混乱时期改变粮食系统

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70143

Johan Swinnen, Tamsin Zandstra

引用次数: 0

Impact of Social Networks on Farmers' Adoption of Smartphones: Evidence From India 社交网络对农民采用智能手机的影响：来自印度的证据

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-02 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70144

Sai Shiva Jayanth Reddy, Sthanu R. Nair

{"title":"Impact of Social Networks on Farmers' Adoption of Smartphones: Evidence From India","authors":"Sai Shiva Jayanth Reddy, Sthanu R. Nair","doi":"10.1111/agec.70144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70144","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Empirical research on agricultural technology adoption has largely focused on farmer and farm level attributes, giving limited attention to the social context in which adoption decisions are embedded. This study addresses this gap by examining how village-level social networks shape smartphone adoption among farmers in Andhra Pradesh, India. Using primary survey data and network measures constructed from farmers' reported connections, we characterize each farmer's position via average network effect (ANE) and degree centrality (DC). We estimate adoption using an instrumental variable (IV) probit model to address the endogeneity of peer adoption. Contrary to findings from studies of other agricultural technologies, higher smartphone adoption among a farmer's network connections reduces farmer's own likelihood of adoption, consistent with information spillovers that reduce the private need to adopt when peers already have. Farmers who are more central within their network, however, are significantly more likely to adopt, reflecting the greater communication demands placed on well-connected individuals. Age, social status (caste group), household size, and land ownership are also significant correlates of adoption. The findings suggest that agricultural extension programs can improve cost-effectiveness by targeting centrally positioned farmers as information-diffusion nodes. At the same time, network spillovers may slow adoption of technologies that primarily serve as information-access tools, rather than speed it up.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"57 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148942056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rural Straw Burning and Its External Impacts on Urbanites' Happiness in China 中国农村秸秆焚烧及其对城市居民幸福感的外部影响

IF 4.7 3区经济学

Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/agec.70140

Jinfeng Gao, Jianglong Li

{"title":"Rural Straw Burning and Its External Impacts on Urbanites' Happiness in China","authors":"Jinfeng Gao, Jianglong Li","doi":"10.1111/agec.70140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70140","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study examines the impact of cross-regional pollution from rural straw burning on the happiness of urban residents. Specifically, we investigate how drifting particulate matter from straw burning, which travels far from its source, influences the well-being of those in affected urban areas. By combining high-resolution satellite data on agricultural fires with self-reported happiness data, we estimate that a one-standard-deviation increase in agricultural fires—measured by the number of upwind fire points, fire intensity (proxied by brightness temperature), and fire radiative power—reduces happiness by approximately 0.099, 0.098, and 0.079 points on the CES-D scale, respectively. Using the pollution decay function, we further quantify the contribution of straw burning to urban particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) levels and explore the channels through which PM<sub>2.5</sub> exposure diminishes happiness, including both objective and subjective factors. From an economic perspective, a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the implied welfare losses may exceed current government spending on straw management. These findings highlight the high social and economic costs of agricultural fires and underscore the urgent need for coordinated policy responses in agriculture-dependent developing economies experiencing similar challenges.</p>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":50837,"journal":{"name":"Agricultural Economics","volume":"57 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148848718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0