Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society最新文献_第3页

Measuring Corporate Default Risk 衡量公司违约风险

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae029

Sebastian Dietz

引用次数: 0

What does rally length tell us about player characteristics in tennis? 拉锯战的时间长短能说明网球运动员的哪些特点？

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae027

Nirodha Epasinghege Dona, P. Gill, Tim B Swartz

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Identification of causal diffusion effects using placebo outcomes under structural stationarity 利用结构静止性条件下的安慰剂结果识别因果扩散效应

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae014

Naoki Egami

{"title":"Identification of causal diffusion effects using placebo outcomes under structural stationarity","authors":"Naoki Egami","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Social and biomedical scientists have long been interested in the process through which ideas and behaviours diffuse. In this article, we study an urgent social problem, the spatial diffusion of hate crimes against refugees in Germany, which has admitted more than 1 million asylum seekers since the 2015 refugee crisis. Despite its importance, identification of causal diffusion effects, also known as peer and contagion effects, remains challenging because the commonly used assumption of no omitted confounders is often untenable due to contextual confounding and homophily bias. To address this long-standing problem, we examine causal identification using placebo outcomes under a new assumption of structural stationarity, which formalizes the underlying diffusion process with a class of nonparametric structural equation models with recursive structure. We show under structural stationarity that a lagged dependent variable is a general, valid placebo outcome for detecting a wide range of biases, including the 2 types mentioned above. We then propose a difference-in-differences style estimator that can directly correct biases under an additional causal assumption. Analysing fine-grained geo-coded hate crime data from Germany, we show when and how the proposed methods can detect and correct unmeasured confounding in spatial causal diffusion analysis.","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":" April","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140383228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An Introduction to R and Python for Data Analysis: A Side-By-Side Approach R 和 Python 数据分析入门：并行方法

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae028

Shalabh

引用次数: 0

Handbook of Measurement Error Models 测量误差模型手册

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae030

M. Aalabaf-Sabaghi

引用次数: 0

Mapping non-monetary poverty at multiple geographical scales 绘制多种地理尺度的非货币贫困地图

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae023

Silvia De Nicolò, Enrico Fabrizi, A. Gardini

引用次数: 0

Richard Edward Allsop 1940–2024 理查德-爱德华-艾尔索普 1940-2024

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae026

Benjamin Heydecker

引用次数: 0

A goodness of fit framework for relational event models 关系事件模型的拟合优度框架

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae016

V. Amati, Alessandro Lomi, Tom A B Snijders

引用次数: 0

Evolutionary correspondence analysis of the semantic dynamics of frames 框架语义动态进化对应分析

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae022

Christian Baden, Giovanni Motta

{"title":"Evolutionary correspondence analysis of the semantic dynamics of frames","authors":"Christian Baden, Giovanni Motta","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae022","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We introduce and implement a novel dimension-reduction method for high-dimensional time-varying contingency-tables: the Evolutionary Correspondence Analysis (ECA). ECA enables a comparative analysis of high-dimensional, diachronic processes by identifying a small number of shared latent variables that shape co-evolving data patterns. ECA offers new opportunities for the study of complex social phenomena, such as co-evolving public debates: Its capacity to inductively extract time-varying latent variables from observed contents of evolving debates permits an analysis of meanings shared by linked sub-discourses, such as linked national public spheres or the discourses led by distinct political camps within a shared public sphere. We illustrate the utility of our approach by studying how the Greek and German right-, centre-, and left-leaning news coverage of the European financial crisis evolved between its outbreak in 2009 until its institutional containment in 2012. Comparing the use of 525 unique concepts in six German and Greek outlets with different political leaning over an extended period of time, we identify two common factors accounting for those evolving meanings and analyse how the different sub-discourses influenced one another over time. We allow the factor loadings to be time-varying, and fit to the latent factors a time-varying vector-auto-regressive model with time-varying mean.","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"13 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140241640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sensitivity analysis for the generalization of experimental results 实验结果推广的敏感性分析

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnae012

Melody Y Huang

{"title":"Sensitivity analysis for the generalization of experimental results","authors":"Melody Y Huang","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae012","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Randomized controlled trials (RCT’s) allow researchers to estimate causal effects in an experimental sample with minimal identifying assumptions. However, to generalize or transport a causal effect from an RCT to a target population, researchers must adjust for a set of treatment effect moderators. In practice, it is impossible to know whether the set of moderators has been properly accounted for. I propose a two parameter sensitivity analysis for generalizing or transporting experimental results using weighted estimators. The contributions in the article are threefold. First, I show that the sensitivity parameters are scale-invariant and standardized, and introduce an estimation approach for researchers to account for both bias in their estimates from omitting a moderator, as well as potential changes to their inference. Second, I propose several tools researchers can use to perform sensitivity analysis: (1) numerical measures to summarize the uncertainty in an estimated effect to omitted moderators; (2) graphical summary tools to visualize the sensitivity in estimated effects; and (3) a formal benchmarking approach for researchers to estimate potential sensitivity parameter values using existing data. Finally, I demonstrate that the proposed framework can be easily extended to the class of doubly robust, augmented weighted estimators.","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140245764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0