{"title":"COVID-19 vaccine fatigue in Scotland: how do the trends in attrition rates for the second and third doses differ by age, sex, and council area?","authors":"Robin Muegge, E. Jack, Nema Dean, Duncan Lee","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae036","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Vaccine fatigue is the propensity for individuals to start but not finish a vaccination program with several doses, which means they are less protected. Our study examines vaccine fatigue in the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Scotland. We model the attrition rates across multiple doses with a hierarchical binomial logistic regression model with correlated age- and area-specific random effects with conditional autoregressive priors, where inference uses integrated nested Laplace approximations. We find attrition rates smoothly decrease with increasing age, are much higher for the third dose than the second, and are generally higher for males than females.","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"38 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140981001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Essentials of Econometrics","authors":"A. Chaturvedi","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae045","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":" 14","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140995864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Deep Learning and Scientific Computing with R torch","authors":"A. Chowdhry","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae042","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":" 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140999449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robert Kubinec, Luiz Max Carvalho, Joan Barceló, Cindy Cheng, Luca Messerschmidt, M. Cottrell
{"title":"A Bayesian latent variable model for the optimal identification of disease incidence rates given information constraints","authors":"Robert Kubinec, Luiz Max Carvalho, Joan Barceló, Cindy Cheng, Luca Messerschmidt, M. Cottrell","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae040","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We present an original approach for measuring infections as a latent variable and making use of serological and expert surveys to provide ground truth identification during the early pandemic period. Compared to existing approaches, our model relies more on empirical information than strong structural forms, permitting inference with relatively few assumptions of cumulative infections. We also incorporate a range of political, economic, and social covariates to richly parameterize the relationship between epidemic spread and human behaviour. To show the utility of the model, we provide robust estimates of total infections that account for biases in COVID-19 cases and tests counts in the U.S. from March to July of 2020, a period of time when accurate data about the nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was of limited availability. In addition, we can show how sociopolitical factors like the Black Lives Matter protests and support for President Donald Trump are associated with the spread of the virus via changes in fear of the virus and cell phone mobility. A reproducible version of this article is available as an Rmarkdown file at https://github.com/CoronaNetDataScience/covid_model.","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"21 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141004992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Dong, Kenneth Moselle, Stanley Robertson, Patrick E. Brown, Laura L E Cowen
{"title":"Estimating the population size of persons contending with homelessness using electronic health records","authors":"G. Dong, Kenneth Moselle, Stanley Robertson, Patrick E. Brown, Laura L E Cowen","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae041","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The majority of attempts to enumerate the homeless population rely on point-in-time or shelter counts, which can be costly and inaccurate. As an alternative, we use electronic health records from the Vancouver Island Health Authority, British Columbia, Canada from 2013 to 2022 to identify adults contending with homelessness based on their self-reported housing status. We estimate the annual population size of this population using a flexible open-population capture–recapture model that takes into account (1) the age and gender structure of the population, including aging across detection occasions, (2) annual recruitment into the population, (3) behavioural-response, and (4) apparent survival in the population, including emigration and incorporating known deaths. With this model, we demonstrate how to perform model selection for the inclusion of covariates. We then compare our estimates of annual population size with reported point-in-time counts of homeless populations on Vancouver Island over the same time period, and find that using data extracts from electronic health records gives comparable estimates. We find similarly comparable results using only a subset of interaction data, when using only ER interactions, suggesting that even if cross-continuum data is not available, reasonable estimates of population size can still be found using our method.","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"11 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141018375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research: Fourth Edition","authors":"A. Chowdhry","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae038","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":" 31","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140691261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Handbook of Matching and Weighting Adjustments for Causal Inference","authors":"A. Chowdhry","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae037","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"82 S357","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140694662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Peter Armitage 1924–2024","authors":"J.N.S. Matthews","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae034","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"299 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140703752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
María Bugallo, M. D. Esteban, T. Hobza, Domingo Morales, A. Pérez
{"title":"Small area estimation of labour force indicators under unit-level multinomial mixed models","authors":"María Bugallo, M. D. Esteban, T. Hobza, Domingo Morales, A. Pérez","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae033","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper presents a new statistical methodology for the small area estimation of the proportion of employed, unemployed and inactive people, and of unemployment rates. The novel empirical best and plug-in predictors are based on a multinomial mixed model that is fitted to unit-level data. Model parameters are estimated by maximum-likelihood and mean-squared errors by parametric bootstrap. Several simulation experiments are carried out to empirically investigate the properties of these estimators and predictors. Finally, a detailed application to real data from the first Spanish Labour Force Survey of 2021 is included, where the target is to map labour force indicators by province, sex, and age group.","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"10 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140700685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Eleanor Joyce Snell 1930–2024","authors":"Lynda White","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnae035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnae035","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":506281,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","volume":"33 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140724406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}