Xingdong Song, Jingman Tian, Minghui Li, X. Bai, Zhiguo Zhao, Jianzhong Shi, Xianying Zeng, G. Tian, Y. Guan, Pengfei Cui, G. Deng, Liling Liu, Hongliang Chai, Yanbing Li, Hualan Chen
{"title":"Genetics and Pathogenicity of Influenza A (H4N6) Virus Isolated from Wild Birds in Jiangsu Province, China, 2023","authors":"Xingdong Song, Jingman Tian, Minghui Li, X. Bai, Zhiguo Zhao, Jianzhong Shi, Xianying Zeng, G. Tian, Y. Guan, Pengfei Cui, G. Deng, Liling Liu, Hongliang Chai, Yanbing Li, Hualan Chen","doi":"10.1155/2024/7421277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/7421277","url":null,"abstract":"During the routine surveillance, we isolated nine H4N6 subtype avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in Jiangsu Province, China, in March 2023. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that nine H4N6 viruses belonged to the Eurasian lineage and underwent complex genetic recombination among Asian countries during their evolution. It is particularly noteworthy that the PB2 and PB1 genes of our representative virus were descended from clade 2.3.4.4b H5 high-pathogenic AIVs in Japan. Mutations of D3V and D622G in PB1, N66S in PB1-F2, N30D, I43M, and T215A in M1, and P42S and I106M in NS1 were observed in nine isolates, which may increase the pathogenicity of the viruses in mice. The receptor binding analysis showed that the tested H4N6 virus could bind to both avian-type and human-type receptors. Vitro infection kinetics revealed that the representative virus could efficiently replicate in mammalian cells, including MDCK and 293T cells. Pathogenicity tests in mice indicated that the representative virus could replicate in nasal turbinates and lungs without prior adaptation. Our data reveal the potential public health issues represented by H4N6 viruses from wild birds and highlight the need to strengthen routine surveillance of wild birds.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"112 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139838079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qiucheng Yao, Jing Liu, Huizhen Liu, Yan Zhou, Miaotong Huo, Yuanguo Li, Yuwei Gao, Ye Ge
{"title":"One-Health Challenge in H9N2 Avian Influenza: Novel Human-Avian Reassortment Virus in Guangdong Province, China","authors":"Qiucheng Yao, Jing Liu, Huizhen Liu, Yan Zhou, Miaotong Huo, Yuanguo Li, Yuwei Gao, Ye Ge","doi":"10.1155/2024/9913934","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/9913934","url":null,"abstract":"China is one of the highest producers of poultry meat output in the world, with a large scale of chicken rearing. Statistically analyzed H9N2-subtype avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have become the dominant subtype in China’s live poultry market, with the highest detection rate. Although H9N2 AIV is of low pathogenicity and tends not to cause serious disease and high mortality in poultry, it poses a great challenge to the domestic poultry farming industry by causing a decrease in appetite, a decline in egg production, and deaths caused by mixed infections with another pathogenic microorganism. Moreover, novel influenza viruses (H7N9 and H3N8) infecting humans have emerged in China, and the H9N2 AIV provides all or part of the internal genes to the new recombinant viruses, posing a potential threat to public health and safety and human health. In this research, six H9N2 AIVs were isolated from feces or oropharyngeal swabs collected from live poultry markets and duck farms in Zhanjiang. After epidemiological investigations, phylogenetic analyses, and molecular characterization, we found that the ZJ81 strain was a chicken–human–mink recombinant virus, the ML3 strain was a chicken-human recombinant virus, and all six virus strains of the virus had a bias for the human receptor-binding site and a mutation that could cause an increase in virulence in mice. Therefore, surveillance and control of H9N2 AIV should be strengthened to provide data support for cross-species transmission of H9N2 AIV.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"25 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139781955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joshua Hewitt, Grete E. Wilson-Henjum, Derek T. Collins, Timothy J. Linder, JB Lenoch, Jon D. Heale, Christopher A. Quintanal, Robert Pleszewski, D. McBride, A. Bowman, Jeffrey C. Chandler, S. Shriner, S. Bevins, Dennis J. Kohler, R. Chipman, Allen L. Gosser, David L. Bergman, T. Deliberto, Kim M. Pepin
{"title":"Landscape-Scale Epidemiological Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in White-Tailed Deer","authors":"Joshua Hewitt, Grete E. Wilson-Henjum, Derek T. Collins, Timothy J. Linder, JB Lenoch, Jon D. Heale, Christopher A. Quintanal, Robert Pleszewski, D. McBride, A. Bowman, Jeffrey C. Chandler, S. Shriner, S. Bevins, Dennis J. Kohler, R. Chipman, Allen L. Gosser, David L. Bergman, T. Deliberto, Kim M. Pepin","doi":"10.1155/2024/7589509","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/7589509","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding pathogen emergence in new host species is fundamental for developing prevention and response plans for human and animal health. We leveraged a large-scale surveillance dataset coordinated by United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service and State Natural Resources Agencies to quantify the outbreak dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in North American white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; WTD) throughout its range in the United States. Local epidemics in WTD were well approximated by a single-outbreak peak followed by fade out. Outbreaks peaked early in the northeast and mid-Atlantic. Local effective reproduction ratios of SARS-CoV-2 were between 1 and 2.5. Ten percent of variability in peak prevalence was explained by human infection pressure. This, together with the similar peak infection prevalence times across many counties and single-peak outbreak dynamics followed by fade out, suggest that widespread transmission via human-to-deer spillover may have been an important driver of the patterns and persistence. We provide a framework for inferring population-level epidemiological processes through joint analysis of many sparsely observed local outbreaks (landscape-scale surveillance data) and linking epidemiological parameters to ecological risk factors. The framework combines mechanistic and statistical models that can identify and track local outbreaks in long-term infection surveillance monitoring data.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"24 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139846007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abdelfattah M Selim, Mohamed Marzok, A. Abdelhady, H. Gattan, Mohamed Salem, M. Al-Hammadi
{"title":"Serosurvey and Associated Risk Factors for Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus Infection in Dromedary Camels in Egypt","authors":"Abdelfattah M Selim, Mohamed Marzok, A. Abdelhady, H. Gattan, Mohamed Salem, M. Al-Hammadi","doi":"10.1155/2024/3188539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/3188539","url":null,"abstract":"Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is a disease that affects ruminants globally, including camels, and causing significant financial losses. The epidemiology of BVD in camels in Egypt are not well understood. Thus, this study aimed to determine the prevalence of anti-BVD virus (BVDV) antibodies in camels and identify the potential variables associated with the infection. A total of 400 camel sera from three Egyptian governorates were examined using commercial ELISA kit. The total seroprevalence was 4.8% in examined camels and the BVDV seropositivity were more prevalent in camels from Giza governorate. The highest seropositivity was found in aged camels more than 8 years (OR = 8.62, 95%CI: 1.03–71.87), camels from herd size less than 30 (OR = 4.20, 95%CI: 0.89–19.78), previously aborted animals (OR = 5.98, 95%CI: 2.12–16.92), and in animals kept in contact with sheep or goats (OR = 7.48, 95%CI: 2.56–21.86). Consequently, the camels may be a significant source of BVD infection for other ruminant animals in the same herd due to their susceptibility to the viral infection.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":" 1152","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139786961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Development of Rapid Isothermal Detection Methods Real-Time Fluorescence and Lateral Flow Reverse Transcription Recombinase-Aided Amplification Assay for Bovine Coronavirus","authors":"Qingqing Li, Yan Pan, Cuilan Wu, Chunxia Ma, Jun Li, Changting Li, Huili Bai, Yu Gong, Jing Liu, Li Tao, Yangyan Yin, Ling Teng, Shuhong Zhong, Meiyi Lan, Shuai Hu, Xiong-biao Xuan, Tianchao Wei, Hao Peng","doi":"10.1155/2024/7108960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/7108960","url":null,"abstract":"Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) is a notable pathogen affecting newly born calves and adult cattle, increasing mortality rates among calves and reducing productivity in meat and dairy industries, thereby causing substantial economic losses. Current primary laboratory methods for detecting BCoV include RT-PCR assay, real-time RT-PCR assay, and ELISA. However, these methods are time-consuming, require specialized technicians, and necessitate a laboratory environment. Consequently, there is an urgent need for a rapid, sensitive, and easy to use diagnostic method to detect BCoV. This study introduces two innovative protocols: the real-time fluorescent reverse transcription recombinase-aided amplification (RT-RAA) and the test strip RT-RAA (RT-RAA-LFD). Our results indicate that real-time RT-RAA can complete the reaction in 20 min at 39°C, while RT-RAA-LFD can achieve detection in just 17.5 min at 35°C. These new approaches offer higher specificity, with no cross-reactivity to other viruses, and significantly enhanced sensitivity compared to existing methods (1.46 × 101 and 1.46 × 102 copies/μL, respectively). We evaluated the performance of our methods using 242 clinical samples, and compared with RT-PCR and RT-qPCR. Both real-time RT-RAA and RT-qPCR yielded similar detection rates, the detection rate of RT-RAA-LFD was better than RT-PCR. The RT-RAA methods developed in this study effectively overcome the limitations associated with both RT-PCR and RT-qPCR by offering advantages including a single, low reaction temperature that allows for room temperature operation. Both methods boast shorter reaction times, simpler and more portable instrumentation, as well as reduced technical and environmental demands. Generally, both RT-RAA methods established in this study offer new avenues for the rapid detection of BCoV, contributing significantly to the monitoring, prevention, and control of the disease in global bovine industry.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":" 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139786751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. De Falco, Anna Cutarelli, Roberta Pellicanò, Sabine Brandt, S. Roperto
{"title":"Molecular Detection and Quantification of Ovine Papillomavirus DNA in Equine Sarcoid","authors":"F. De Falco, Anna Cutarelli, Roberta Pellicanò, Sabine Brandt, S. Roperto","doi":"10.1155/2024/6453158","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/6453158","url":null,"abstract":"Equine sarcoids are caused by infection with bovine papillomavirus (BPV) types 1, 2, and possibly 13. However, a number of sarcoids lack BPV DNA, and new potential etiological agents for sarcoid diseases need to be considered. High-performance digital droplet polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) was used for the quantitative detection of ovine papillomavirus (OaPV) types 1–4 DNA from 63 sarcoid DNA samples collected in Austria. All samples were comparatively evaluated for OaPV DNA loads by qPCR. Conventional PCR and amplicon sequencing were used to validate the data. Of the 63 sarcoid DNA isolates, ddPCR was able to detect 22 samples harboring OaPV DNA (34.92%), whereas only five of the OaPV-positive samples were revealed by qPCR (22.72%). The differences in detection by ddPCR and qPCR were statistically significant (p<0.05). The detected OaPV types were OaPV1, 3, and 4. Both methods failed to detect OaPV2 DNA, which could be due to the limited number of examined samples. Importantly, ddPCR detected multiple types of OaPV DNA in seven cases, whereas the qPCR failed to detect multiple infections. This study is the first to provide evidence of the presence of OaPV types 1, 3, and 4 DNA in a subset of equine sarcoids. The comparative detection approach underscores the superior sensitivity of ddPCR compared to that of qPCR.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"409 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139848101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mkama M. Mashinagu, P. Wambura, Donald P King, David J. Paton, Francois Maree, S. Kimera, M. Rweyemamu, C. Kasanga
{"title":"Challenges of Controlling Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Pastoral Settings in Africa","authors":"Mkama M. Mashinagu, P. Wambura, Donald P King, David J. Paton, Francois Maree, S. Kimera, M. Rweyemamu, C. Kasanga","doi":"10.1155/2024/2700985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/2700985","url":null,"abstract":"Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly devastating viral disease affecting all cloven-hoofed animals. The disease threatens food security and livelihoods across different parts of the world. FMD is endemic in Africa; where the continuous circulation of the disease impacts the livelihoods of pastoral communities by reducing the quality and quantity of livestock products such as milk and meat, as well as undermining the access of the livestock sector to regional and lucrative global markets. Strategies used to control FMD in Africa, especially tropical Africa, are typically fragmented national-level focused activities with relatively poor outcomes, rather than regionally coordinated initiatives that have been used on other continents (South America, Europe) to successfully reduce and even eliminate virus circulation. Biotechnological advances have improved our ability to detect and characterize FMD virus strains, but more effective approaches to disease control are needed to encourage disease reporting and outbreak investigation. This review of the challenges to FMD control amongst Africa’s diverse pastoral communities is intended to provide information and provoke discussion to improve the strategies and approaches for regional FMD control in Africa.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"88 S375","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139794300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"First Report of a Novel Goose Adenovirus Outbreak in Lion Head Gooses in China","authors":"Rong-chang Liu, Minhua Sun, Qin Lan, Jiaxue Zhang, Qizhang Liang, Guanghua Fu, Ming Liao, Yu Huang","doi":"10.1155/2024/3980468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/3980468","url":null,"abstract":"In April 2022, a novel Goose adenovirus (GoAdV) isolated from diseased Lion head gooses exhibiting swelling and hemorrhage of liver and kidney, accumulation of fluid in pericardial, in Fujian province of China. The GoAdV was propagated in goose embryo fibroblasts (GEFs), the morphological properties of the virions were studied by electron microscopy, and the full genome sequence was determined and analyzed. The results revealed that the infected cells became round and clustered like grapes, virions accumulated and were arranged in crystal lattice formations in the nucleus of GEFs with a diameter of ∼80 nm. The new isolate (named CH-FJZZ-202201) has a viral genome size of 43,480 bp and shared 96.69% sequence identity with GoAdV-4 (P29), representing the species Goose aviadenovirus A. Phylogenetic analysis showed that CH-FJZZ-202201 was in the same genetic evolutionary branch with the viruses of Aviadenovirus and was the closest relative to GoAdV-4 P29/Hungary. This is the first report of the GoAdV-4 outside of Hungary, indicating the reemergence of new AdV strains in China.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"12 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139853893","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. B. Martins, Julio C. Neves de Almeida, Marianne S. S. Gonçalves, L. I. Gila, D. Yogui, M. Alves, A. L. J. Desbiez, Paulo E. Brandão, A. D. da Hora
{"title":"Occurrence of Typical Domestic Animal Viruses in Wild Carnivorans: An Emerging Threat to the Conservation of Endangered Species","authors":"N. B. Martins, Julio C. Neves de Almeida, Marianne S. S. Gonçalves, L. I. Gila, D. Yogui, M. Alves, A. L. J. Desbiez, Paulo E. Brandão, A. D. da Hora","doi":"10.1155/2024/3931047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/3931047","url":null,"abstract":"Wild species are susceptible to several typical domestic animal pathogens, and the increasingly close contact between these groups is a predictive factor for disease exposure. Some viruses are important and old-known, and others are emerging or reemerging for domestic carnivorans and have been identified as threats to the conservation of wild mammals. The purpose of the study was to investigate the occurrence of bocaparvoviruses (BoVs, Parvoviridae family, Parvovirinae subfamily, Bocaparvovirus genus), parvoviruses (Parvoviridae family, Parvovirinae subfamily, Protoparvovirus genus, Protoparvovirus carnivoran1), hepadnaviruses (Hepadnaviridae family), coronaviruses (Coronaviridae family, Orthocoronavirinae subfamily), paramyxoviruses (Paramyxoviridae family) and canine distemper virus (Orthoparamyxovirinae subfamily, Morbillivirus genus, Morbillivirus canis), poxviruses (Poxviridae family), feline herpesvirus (Orthoherpesviridae family, Alphaherpesvirinae subfamily, Varicellovirus genus, Varicellovirus felidalpha1), feline calicivirus (Caliciviridae family, Vesivirus genus, FCV), feline immunodeficiency virus (Retroviridae family, Orthoretrovirinae subfamily, Lentivirus genus, FIV), feline leukemia virus (Retroviridae family, Orthoretrovirinae subfamily, Gammaretrovirus genus, FeLV), and gammaherpesviruses (Orthoherpesviridae family, Gammaherpesvirinae subfamily) in wild carnivorans. A total of 30 biological samples from the families Canidae, Felidae, Mephitidae, Mustelidae, and Procyonidae were evaluated. All animals were victims of vehicular collisions in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Canine parvovirus (CPV-2) DNA was detected in the spleen of a bush dog (Speothos venaticus), a jaguarundi (Puma yagouaroundi), and a jaguar (Panthera onca), FeLV proviral DNA was found in the spleen of an ocelot (Leopardus pardalis); while CDV RNA was detected in the liver of a jaguarundi. Phylogenetic analysis carried out with the partial sequence of the CPV-2 VP2 gene and the U3 (LTR) gag region of FeLV showed 100% identity with strains obtained from domestic dogs and cats, respectively. The approximation between wild and domestic animals favors the transmission of pathogens, especially between phylogenetically close species, such as members of the Canidae and Felidae families. Identification of the DNA and RNA of potentially fatal viruses such as CPV-2, FeLV, and CDV in four wilds endangered to extinction and understudied species contributes to our understanding of the pathogens circulating in this free-ranging and vulnerable population.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"24 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139856733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
N. Pamornchainavakul, M. Kikuti, I. Paploski, Cesar A. Corzo, K. VanderWaal
{"title":"Predicting Potential PRRSV-2 Variant Emergence through Phylogenetic Inference","authors":"N. Pamornchainavakul, M. Kikuti, I. Paploski, Cesar A. Corzo, K. VanderWaal","doi":"10.1155/2024/7945955","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1155/2024/7945955","url":null,"abstract":"Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a significant pig disease causing substantial annual losses exceeding half a billion dollars to the United States pork industry. The cocirculation and emergence of genetically distinct PRRSV-2 viruses hinder PRRS control, especially vaccine development. Similar to other viral infections like seasonal flu and SARS-CoV-2, predictive tools for identifying potential emerging viral variants may prospectively aid in preemptive disease mitigation. However, such predictions have not been made for PRRSV-2, despite the abundance of relevant data. In this study, we analyzed a decade’s worth of virus ORF5 sequences (n = 20,700) and corresponding metadata to identify phylogenetic-based early indicators for short-term (12 months) and long-term (24 months) variant emergence. Our analysis focuses on PRRSV-2 Lineage 1, which was the predominant lineage within the U.S. during this period. We evaluated population expansion, spatial distribution, and genetic diversity as key success metrics for variant emergence. Our findings indicate that successful variants were best characterized as those that underwent population expansion alongside widespread geographical spread but had limited genetic diversification. Conditional logistic regression revealed the local branching index as the sole informative indicator for predicting population expansion (balanced accuracy (BA) = 0.75), while ancestral branch length was strongly linked to future genetic diversity (BA = 0.79). Predicting spatial dispersion relied on the branch length and putative antigenic difference (BA = 0.67), but their causal relationships remain unclear. Although the predictive models effectively captured most emerging variants (sensitivity = 0.58–0.81), they exhibited relatively low positive predictive value (PPV = 0.09–0.16). This initial step in PRRSV-2 prediction is a crucial step for more precise prevention strategies against PRRS in the future.","PeriodicalId":505858,"journal":{"name":"Transboundary and Emerging Diseases","volume":"9 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139805711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}