M. Poletti, M. Lagasio, Antonio Parodi, Massimo Milelli, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Stefano Federico, Lorenzo Campo, Marco Falzacappa, F. Silvestro
{"title":"Hydrological verification of two rainfall short-term forecasting methods with floods anticipation perspective","authors":"M. Poletti, M. Lagasio, Antonio Parodi, Massimo Milelli, Vincenzo Mazzarella, Stefano Federico, Lorenzo Campo, Marco Falzacappa, F. Silvestro","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0125.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0125.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Flood forecast remains a significant challenge, particularly when dealing with basins characterized by small drainage areas (i.e. 103 km2 or lower with response time in the range 0.5-10 h) especially because of the rainfall prediction uncertainties (Buzzi et al., 2014) . This study aims to investigate the performances of streamflow predictions using two short-term rainfall forecast methods.\u0000These methods utilize a combination of nowcasting extrapolation algorithm and numerical weather predictions by employing three-dimensional variational assimilation system and nudging assimilation techniques, meteorological radar and lightning data are frequently updated, allowing new forecasts with high temporal frequency (i.e. 1-3 hours). A distributed hydrological model is used to convert rainfall forecasts in streamflow prediction. The potential of assimilating radar and lightning data or radar data alone, is also discussed.\u0000A hindcast experiment on two rainy periods in the north-west region of Italy was designed. The selected skill scores were analyzed to assess their degradation with increasing lead time, and the results were further aggregated based on basin dimensions to investigate the catchment integration effect. The findings indicate that both rainfall forecast methods yield good performance, with neither definitively outperforming the other. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that, on average, assimilating both radar and lightning data enhances the performance.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"206 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140443832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wen-Shu Lin, Joel R. Norris, M. DeFlorio, F. M. Ralph
{"title":"Local and Object-based Perspectives on Atmospheric Rivers Making Landfall on the Western North American Coastline","authors":"Wen-Shu Lin, Joel R. Norris, M. DeFlorio, F. M. Ralph","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-22-0155.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-22-0155.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000We apply the Ralph et al. (2019) scaling method to a reanalysis dataset to examine the climatology and variability of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the western North American coastline during 1980–2019. The local perspective ranks AR intensity on a scale from 1 (weak) to 5 (strong) at each grid point along the coastline. The object-based perspective analyzes the characteristics of spatially independent and temporally coherent AR objects making landfall. The local perspective shows that the annual AR frequency of weak and strong ARs along the coast are highest in Oregon and Washington and lowest in southern California. Strong ARs occur less frequently than weak ARs and have a more pronounced seasonal cycle. If those ARs with integrated water vapor transport (IVT) weaker than 250 kg m−1 s−1 are included, there is an enhanced seasonal cycle of AR frequency in southern California and a seasonal cycle of AR intensity but not AR frequency in Alaska. The object-based analysis additionally indicates that strong ARs at lower latitudes are associated with stronger wind than weak ARs but similar moisture, whereas strong ARs at higher latitudes are associated with greater moisture than weak ARs but similar wind. For strong ARs, IVT at the core is largest for ARs in Oregon and Washington and smaller poleward and equatorward. Both IVT in the AR core and cumulative IVT along the coastline usually decrease after the first day of landfall for weak ARs but increase from the first to second day for strong ARs.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"52 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140444628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nika Tsitelashvili, Trent Biggs, Ye Mu, V. Trapaidze
{"title":"Regional precipitation regimes and evaluation of national precipitation datasets against satellite-based precipitation estimates, Republic of Georgia","authors":"Nika Tsitelashvili, Trent Biggs, Ye Mu, V. Trapaidze","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0116.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0116.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Analyzing water resources in areas with few hydrometeorological stations, such as those in post-Soviet countries, is difficult due to station closures after 1989. In Caucasus, evaluations often rely on outdated data from nearby rivers. We evaluated one national-level precipitation dataset, the Water Balance of Georgia (WBG) with two satellite-based precipitation products from 1981 to 2021, including the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with station data (CHIRPS), and CHIRPS blended with a dense rain gauge network (geoCHIRPS). We modelled mean annual precipitation from geoCHIRPS as a function of coastal distance and elevation. CHIRPS underestimated precipitation in the cold and wet seasons (R2 = 0.74, r = 0.86), and overestimated dry season precipitation, while geoCHIRPS performed well in all seasons (R2 = 0.86, r = 0.92). Distance from the coast was a more important predictor of precipitation than elevation in Western Georgia, while precipitation correlated positively with elevation in the East. At four hydroelectric plants, the underperformance as a percentage of capacity (∼37%) corresponds with the percentage difference between difference in precipitation products (∼38%), suggesting that plants designed based on WBG may be systematically over-designed, but further work is needed to determine the reasons for the underperformance of the plants and frequency. We conclude that 1) existing WBG does not accurately reflect elevation-precipitation relationships near the coast and 2) for accurate analysis of spatiotemporal precipitation variability and its impacts on hydropower generation, environmental and sustainable water resource management, it is essential to calibrate satellite-based precipitation estimates with additional rain gauge data.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"49 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139837105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nika Tsitelashvili, Trent Biggs, Ye Mu, V. Trapaidze
{"title":"Regional precipitation regimes and evaluation of national precipitation datasets against satellite-based precipitation estimates, Republic of Georgia","authors":"Nika Tsitelashvili, Trent Biggs, Ye Mu, V. Trapaidze","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0116.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0116.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Analyzing water resources in areas with few hydrometeorological stations, such as those in post-Soviet countries, is difficult due to station closures after 1989. In Caucasus, evaluations often rely on outdated data from nearby rivers. We evaluated one national-level precipitation dataset, the Water Balance of Georgia (WBG) with two satellite-based precipitation products from 1981 to 2021, including the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with station data (CHIRPS), and CHIRPS blended with a dense rain gauge network (geoCHIRPS). We modelled mean annual precipitation from geoCHIRPS as a function of coastal distance and elevation. CHIRPS underestimated precipitation in the cold and wet seasons (R2 = 0.74, r = 0.86), and overestimated dry season precipitation, while geoCHIRPS performed well in all seasons (R2 = 0.86, r = 0.92). Distance from the coast was a more important predictor of precipitation than elevation in Western Georgia, while precipitation correlated positively with elevation in the East. At four hydroelectric plants, the underperformance as a percentage of capacity (∼37%) corresponds with the percentage difference between difference in precipitation products (∼38%), suggesting that plants designed based on WBG may be systematically over-designed, but further work is needed to determine the reasons for the underperformance of the plants and frequency. We conclude that 1) existing WBG does not accurately reflect elevation-precipitation relationships near the coast and 2) for accurate analysis of spatiotemporal precipitation variability and its impacts on hydropower generation, environmental and sustainable water resource management, it is essential to calibrate satellite-based precipitation estimates with additional rain gauge data.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"41 23","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139777521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tess W. P. Jacobson, R. Seager, A. P. Williams, I. Simpson, Karen A. McKinnon, Haibo Liu
{"title":"An unexpected decline in spring atmospheric humidity in the interior Southwestern United States and implications for forest fires","authors":"Tess W. P. Jacobson, R. Seager, A. P. Williams, I. Simpson, Karen A. McKinnon, Haibo Liu","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0121.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0121.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000On seasonal timescales, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a known predictor of burned area in the Southwestern United States (“the Southwest”). VPD increases with atmospheric warming due to the exponential relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure. Another control on VPD is specific humidity, such that increases in specific humidity can counteract temperature-driven increases in VPD. Unexpectedly, despite the increased capacity of a warmer atmosphere to hold water vapor, near-surface specific humidity decreased from 1970-2019 in much of the Southwest, particularly in spring, summer, and fall. Here, we identify declining near-surface humidity from 1970-2019 in the Southwestern U.S. with both reanalysis and in situ station data. Focusing on the interior Southwest in the months preceding the summer forest fire season, we explain the decline in terms of changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture fluxes between the surface and the atmosphere. We find that an early spring decline in precipitation in the interior region induced a decline in soil moisture and evapotranspiration, drying the lower troposphere in summer. This prior season precipitation decline is in turn related to a trend towards a Northern Hemisphere stationary wave pattern. Finally, using fixed humidity scenarios and the observed exponential relationship between VPD and burned forest area, we estimate that with no increase in temperature at all, the humidity decline alone would still lead to nearly one-quarter of the observed VPD-induced increase in burned area over 1984-2019.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"3 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139847800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Impact of land surface snow processes on the Arctic stable boundary layer","authors":"Xiaodong Hong, Qingfang Jiang","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0040.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0040.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The impact of land surface snow processes on the Arctic stable boundary layer (ASBL) is investigated using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to reduce the cold bias caused by decoupling between the land surface and atmosphere. The Noah land surface model (LSM) with improved snow processes is examined using COAMPS forecast forcing in the one-dimension mode for one month. The new snow physics shows that the snow properties, roughness length, and sensible heat flux are modified as expected to compensate for the old LSM deficiency. These new snow processes are incorporated into the COAMPS Noah LSM, and the 48-h forecasts using both old and new Noah LSMs are performed for January 2021 with every 6-h data assimilation update cycle. Standard verifications of the 48-h forecasts have used all available ADP observational data sets and the snow depth from the Land Information System (LIS) analyses. The statistics have shown reduced monthly mean cold biases ∼1 °C by the new snow physics. The weaker strength of surface inversion and stronger turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) from the new snow physics provides a higher boundary layer due to significantly stronger eddy mixing. The simulations have also shown the insignificant impact of different lateral boundary conditions obtained from the global forecasts or analyses on the results of the new snow physics. This study highlights the importance of the revised snow physics in Noah LSM for reducing the decoupling problem, improving the forecasts, and studying ASBL physics over the Arctic region.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"59 52","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139797816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Koster, A.F. Feldman, T. R. Holmes, M. C. Anderson, W. Crow, C. Hain
{"title":"Estimating Hydrological Regimes from Observational Soil Moisture, Evapotranspiration, and Air Temperature Data","authors":"R. Koster, A.F. Feldman, T. R. Holmes, M. C. Anderson, W. Crow, C. Hain","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0140.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0140.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Evapotranspiration has long been understood to vary with soil moisture in drier regions and to be relatively insensitive to soil moisture in wetter regions. A number of recent studies have quantified this behavior with various model and observational datasets. However, given the disparate approaches and datasets used, uncertainty persists in how the underlying relationships vary in space and time. Here we complement the existing studies by analyzing two datasets as yet untapped for this purpose: a satellite-based evapotranspiration (E) product retrieved using geostationary thermal imagery and a meteorological station-based dataset of daily 2m air temperature (T2M) diurnal amplitudes. Both datasets are analyzed synchronously with soil moisture from the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) satellite. We thereby derive maps of evaporative regimes that vary in space and time as one might expect, that is, the water-limited regime grows eastward across the conterminous United States (CONUS) as spring moves into summer, only to shrink again going into winter. The relationship between the E and soil moisture data appears particularly tight, which is encouraging given that the E data (like the T2M data) were not constructed using any soil moisture information whatsoever. The general agreement between the two independent sets of results gives us confidence that the generated maps correctly represent, to first order, evaporative regime behavior in Nature. The T2M results have the added benefit of highlighting the significant connection between soil moisture and overlying air temperature, a connection relevant to T2M predictability.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"5 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139798546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Koster, A.F. Feldman, T. R. Holmes, M. C. Anderson, W. Crow, C. Hain
{"title":"Estimating Hydrological Regimes from Observational Soil Moisture, Evapotranspiration, and Air Temperature Data","authors":"R. Koster, A.F. Feldman, T. R. Holmes, M. C. Anderson, W. Crow, C. Hain","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0140.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0140.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Evapotranspiration has long been understood to vary with soil moisture in drier regions and to be relatively insensitive to soil moisture in wetter regions. A number of recent studies have quantified this behavior with various model and observational datasets. However, given the disparate approaches and datasets used, uncertainty persists in how the underlying relationships vary in space and time. Here we complement the existing studies by analyzing two datasets as yet untapped for this purpose: a satellite-based evapotranspiration (E) product retrieved using geostationary thermal imagery and a meteorological station-based dataset of daily 2m air temperature (T2M) diurnal amplitudes. Both datasets are analyzed synchronously with soil moisture from the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) satellite. We thereby derive maps of evaporative regimes that vary in space and time as one might expect, that is, the water-limited regime grows eastward across the conterminous United States (CONUS) as spring moves into summer, only to shrink again going into winter. The relationship between the E and soil moisture data appears particularly tight, which is encouraging given that the E data (like the T2M data) were not constructed using any soil moisture information whatsoever. The general agreement between the two independent sets of results gives us confidence that the generated maps correctly represent, to first order, evaporative regime behavior in Nature. The T2M results have the added benefit of highlighting the significant connection between soil moisture and overlying air temperature, a connection relevant to T2M predictability.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"309 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139858486","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Evaluation of Multi-Source Datasets in Characterizing Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation from 2001 to 2019 in China","authors":"Jiayi Lu, Kaicun Wang, Guocan Wu, Yuna Mao","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0162.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0162.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation intensity is crucial for hydroclimatic studies. This study delineates the spatio-temporal distribution features of extreme precipitation intensity across China from 2001 to 2019 using the gridded daily precipitation dataset CN05.1, constructed from an observation network of over 2400 stations. Furthermore, we evaluate the reliability of 12 widely used precipitation datasets (including gauge-based, satellite retrieval, reanalysis, and fusion products) in monitoring extreme precipitation events. Our findings indicate the following: 1) CN05.1 reveals a consistent spatial distribution characterized by a decline in extreme precipitation intensity from the southeastern coastal regions towards the northwestern inland areas of China. From 2001 to 2019, more pronounced declining intensity trends are discernible in the northern and southwestern regions of China, whereas marked increasing trends manifest in the northeastern and the Yangtze River plain regions. National mean extreme precipitation indices consistently exhibit significant increasing trends throughout China. 2) Datasets based on station observations generally exhibit superior applicability concerning spatiotemporal distribution. 3) Multi-source weighted precipitation fusion products effectively capture the temporal variability of extreme precipitation indices.4) Satellite retrieval datasets exhibit notable performance disparities in representing various intensity indices. Most products tend to overestimate the increasing trends of national mean intensity indices.5) Reanalysis datasets tend to overestimate extreme precipitation indices, and inadequately capture the trends. ERA5 and JRA55 underestimate trends, while CFSR and MERRA2 significantly overestimate the trends. These findings serve as a basis for selecting reliable precipitation datasets for extreme precipitation and hydrological simulation research in China.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"161 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139858769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Impact of Wind on Precipitation Measurements from a Compact Piezoelectric Sensor","authors":"E. Chinchella, A. Cauteruccio, L. G. Lanza","doi":"10.1175/jhm-d-23-0180.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0180.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The measurement accuracy of an electroacoustic precipitation sensor, the Vaisala WXT520, is investigated to quantify the associated wind-induced bias. The device is widely used as a noncatching tool for measuring the integral features of liquid precipitation, specifically rainfall amount and intensity. A numerical simulation using computational fluid dynamics is used to determine the bluff-body behavior of the instrument when exposed to wind. The obtained airflow velocity patterns near the sensor are initially validated in a wind tunnel. Then, the wind-induced deviation and acceleration/deceleration of individual raindrop trajectories and the resulting impact on the measured precipitation are replicated using a Lagrangian particle tracking model. The sensor’s specific measurement principle necessitates redefining catch ratios and the collection efficiency in terms of the resulting kinetic energy and quantifying them as a function of particle Reynolds number and precipitation intensity, respectively. Wind speed and direction and drop size distribution have been simulated across various combinations. The results show that the measured precipitation is overestimated by up to 400% under the influence of wind. The presented adjustment curves can be used to correct raw rainfall measurements taken by the Vaisala WXT520 in windy conditions, either in real time or as a postprocessing function. The magnitude of the adjustment at any operational aggregation level largely depends on the local rainfall and wind regimes at the site of measurement and may have a strong impact on applications in regions where wind is frequent during low- to medium-intensity precipitation.","PeriodicalId":503314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Hydrometeorology","volume":"96 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140469527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}